How statistical evidence convinced me that Republicans stole the election
On November 5, 2024, like many other Americans, I stayed up late to watch the election results roll in. Hours after the last polls closed…
On November 5, 2024, like many other Americans, I stayed up late to watch the election results roll in. Hours after the last polls closed, it seemed there was a rapid succession of states declaring Donald Trump the winner, finally sealing the deal.
Having voted for Harris, I was profoundly surprised and disappointed. How could this be? Did you see the Harris-Walz rallies? Weren’t there huge crowds, with thousands upon thousands of pumped up voters and hoards of major celebrities? And she didn’t win even ONE swing state? Really?
I and all of my family and friends had to ask ourselves, “Are there really that many of ‘those people’ out there? The majority of people in my state (a swing state) would actually rather vote for a convicted felon than a strong, intelligent woman with relevant job experience?” We had to resign ourselves to this unfortunate truth. It was painful and crippled my faith in humanity.
Life went on. The holidays came and went. And then in the late winter I started seeing musings of a possible “stolen election.” Wishful thinking, right? But they told us the elections are secure.
With a highly skeptical attitude, I thought I would see what these people have to say — people from one of several groups who claimed the election might have been manipulated. I watched a video where Nathan Taylor from the Election Truth Alliance explained graphs of vote distribution in Clark County, Nevada, where Las Vegas is, and I became a believer. Since then, data has been released for counties in Pennsylvania, too.
The more voter data I see, the more I’m convinced that something was definitely awry in the 2024 election. Without a doubt. Let me explain.
Let’s look at a few charts showing election results by voter turnout in Pennsylvania (below).
First, what exactly is “voter turnout”? According to the Election Truth Alliance, “Turnout is the ratio of votes in a precinct to the number of registered voters.” In other words, it’s the percentage of registered voters who show up to vote in an election.
Here’s an example: Let’s say there are 100 people registered to vote in a certain precinct, and 14 of them mail in their ballot. That’s a voter turnout of 14% for mail-in voting in this precinct. Then, on Election Day, 61 people vote in person. That’s a voter turnout of 61% for Election Day voting in this precinct.
The chart below, Figure 1, shows candidate vote share by turnout percentage for mail-in voting in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania:
Figure 1
Source: Election Truth Alliance data dashboard, Philadelphia Co. 2024 Mail-in Vote Share by Turnout Percentage
This distribution in the above chart of mail-in results is typical. As I moused over each bar in Election Truth Alliance’s interactive data dashboard, I could see the percentage of votes that went for a candidate in those precincts or districts. On the far left, the bars show precincts where a very low percentage of voters cast mail-in ballots. On the right, we see areas where over 30% of registered voters there voted by mailing in their ballots. Notice that the results don’t change much left to right. This is normal. According to the Election Truth Alliance, “Unmanipulated races are generally flat lines at any candidate popularity.”
A common misconception about these graphs is that the turnout is related to time, but it’s not. Each bar in the chart represents a precinct or group of precincts with that percentage of total turnout for this election.
Imagine that in the hypothetical precinct of Oakview, 36% of voters mailed in their vote. When exactly they mailed it and when it was counted are irrelevant, because it’s still a total of 36% of voters in Oakview who voted by mail.
Then, imagine a neighboring precinct in the same county called Maplewood, and only 5% of total registered voters there voted by mail. The bar for Maplewood would appear toward the left of the graph at 5%, and the bar for Oakview would be represented by a bar toward the right of the graph, at 36%. So, these graphs show the total percent of turnout after the fact for this type of vote. Figure 1 shows turnout by mail-in votes, and Figure 2, below, shows the percentage of voters who cast their ballot in person on Election Day.
Above, we saw a graph that shows mail-in voting (Fig. 1). Next, let’s look at Election Day results in the same place, Philadelphia County. Below, Figure 2 shows a different story than mail-in:
Figure 2
Source: Election Truth Alliance data dashboard, Philadelphia Co. 2024 Election Day Vote Share by Turnout Percentage
We can see that in Philadelphia County, results skew for Trump in precincts where a higher percentage of registered voters showed up to vote on Election Day. Why is this distribution so different from mail-in voting results?
OK, maybe Trump voters were just extra enthusiastic on Election Day in Philadelphia County (but only in precincts with high turnout). Why didn’t that extra enthusiasm extend to all precincts? Maybe it’s a fluke.
Next, let’s look at Erie County, mail-in versus Election Day votes. See Figure 3, below:
Figure 3
Source: Election Truth Alliance data dashboard, 2024 Erie Co. Mail-In Votes and Erie Co. Election Day votes.
Wait, what? That’s the same odd pattern for Election Day voting.
In Erie County, Pennsylvania, mail-in voting results (Figure 3, left side), stay fairly consistent from left to right. Voters had a clear preference of one candidate throughout all precincts, regardless of the percentage of people there who voted. This is normal, and it appears that mail-in voting shows no sign of manipulation.
However, on the right side of Figure 3, on Election Day, we see the same unnatural statistical pattern in Erie County that we saw in Philadelphia County. In precincts where a smaller percentage of voters turned out, Harris won consistently. On Election Day, in precincts where voter turnout surpassed approximately 50%, we see a clear shift toward Trump. And it seems the higher the turnout, the higher percentage of total votes Trump won in that precinct.
Just for good measure, let’s take a look at a third county in Pennsylvania. Figure 4, below, shows voter data for Allegheny County. Mail-in is on the left, and Election Day is on the right:
Figure 4
Source: Election Truth Alliance data dashboard, 2024 Allegheny Co. Mail-In Votes and Allegheny Co. Election Day votes.
Hmm…that’s peculiar. The repetition of this pattern for Election Day voting seems quite remarkable.
One has to ask, why, in precincts where a higher percentage of voters turned out, did the majority of votes shift toward Trump? Isn’t that weird? Why did Harris overwhelmingly win in precincts where less than 50% of registered voters showed up on Election Day, but then in places where more than about 50% of voters turned out, she lost? It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. Especially that this strange pattern on Election Day happens in three different counties: Philadelphia, Erie, and Allegheny. And these are just the three places we’re looking at. What about the other counties?
What could cause these strange data anomalies? Did some nefarious tech wizards create an algorithm that switched the votes as more people showed up? Did they use voter information to add in votes of actual citizens? For example, imagine a hypothetical scenario where polls are closing on Election Day, and networked voter databases detect that Millie Smith is registered, but she didn’t vote in this election. Then, the system casts a Republican vote in her name.
Maybe I’m totally wrong. I’m just speculating. Personally, I think they switched votes as turnout increased. Could this be done by an algorithm? I’ve heard whispers from tech gurus that say “possibly, yes.”
So there you have it. The patterns in the figures above show what some are calling evidence of election interference. If the election was manipulated, if there was indeed election fraud, I have no idea how they did it. I’m just a technologically incompetent voter in a swing state.
But what I do know is that I, for one, think that these unnatural patterns in Election Day numbers are very concerning and highly suspicious. That’s why I support a full audit of paper ballots in these Pennsylvania counties.
