Internal hires usually don't succeed. Can Joe Brady and the Bills defy the odds?
From 2006 through 2024, 21 coaches were promoted from an assistant role to take over the team with whom they were employed the previous season. Their combined record and winning percentage: 360-472 (.432). But Joe Brady takes over a Bills team that has more talent than most of the past examples.
As finalists emerged last week in the Buffalo Bills’ coaching search, general manager and president of football operations Brandon Beane reflected on a series of moments more than two years ago that strengthened Joe Brady’s case.
Sean McDermott’s decision to fire Ken Dorsey and promote Brady from quarterbacks coach to interim offensive coordinator in November 2023 left the Bills with only four days to prepare for the New York Jets. There was no time for Brady to install a new offense, but changes were necessary. He also had to quickly build relationships and trust with every other player within the group.
Bills new head coach Joe Brady and owner Terry Pegula pose for photos on Thursday.
Brady is trying to become one of the few assistant coaches who successfully transitions to head coach with the same organization.
Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
The Bills scored 32 points that week, and they averaged 27 points as they won six of their last seven games to qualify for the playoffs. The resolve and effectiveness Brady showed under difficult circumstances were among the reasons why he was Beane’s choice to replace McDermott as Buffalo’s head coach.
“While he couldn’t do wholesale changes to the offense, he brought things that are not about X’s and O’s to the group,” Beane said Thursday, reflecting on the qualities that convinced him Brady could make the challenging transition from assistant to head coach.
“The attitude, the communication, the energy. You felt at practice a different energy when Joe took over the offense. Things like that give you confidence.”
Brady became the youngest head coach in the NFL when he signed a five-year contract to take over a team that will have Super Bowl expectations as long as Josh Allen is the Bills’ quarterback. Brady is only 36 years old. He’s never been a head coach at any level. His defense will need to be rebuilt. There will be turnover across his staff and on his roster. History shows the odds are stacked against him and the Bills.
Internal promotions rarely produce better results.
From 2006 through 2024, 21 coaches were promoted from an assistant role to take over the team with whom they were employed the previous season. Their combined record and winning percentage: 360-472 (.432). Eleven lasted fewer than three seasons. Only one, Jim Caldwell of the Indianapolis Colts, reached a Super Bowl, and he accomplished the feat during his first season. Three remained on the job for more than three seasons. Five had experience as an NFL head coach.
Of those 21 coaches, Caldwell is the one whose credentials are like those that helped Brady beat out eight other candidates for the Bills job. Bill Polian, the Colts’ general manager from 1998-2009, decided before Tony Dungy’s retirement to tab Caldwell as the head-coach-in-waiting. Caldwell had been on the staff as Peyton Manning’s position coach for seven seasons. The offensive players adored Caldwell. He understood them, and he brought a blend of energy and accountability. Caldwell, however, had one quality Brady lacks: head coaching experience. Caldwell led Wake Forest for eight seasons prior to his move to the NFL.
“Jim was a known quantity,” Polian explained during a phone interview with The Buffalo News. “That was the key to it. Everybody knew who he was, what he was, what he stood for, how he coached, particularly on offense. He didn’t change at all as the head coach. He was very firm with the positions he coached previously. It was a seamless transition, but we had such a cohesive group. He was already exposed to and party to a lot of decisions that an assistant coach would have been.”
The expectations and pressure were immense in 2009 when Caldwell replaced Dungy, who elected to retire. Two years earlier, the Colts beat the Chicago Bears in Super Bowl XLI. Manning was 32 years old, and there was ample talent around him. During his first season, Caldwell led the Colts to a 14-2 record and first place in the AFC South. They advanced to Super Bowl XLIV with wins over the Ravens and Jets, but New Orleans won the game, 31-17.
Indianapolis Colts head coach Jim Caldwell on the sidelines during the second half of the
NFL Super Bowl XLIV football game against the New Orleans Saints in Miami, Sunday, Feb. 7, 2010.
AP file photo
In Caldwell’s second season, the Colts finished 10-6 and lost to Baltimore in the wild card game. His third season got derailed before it even began, as Manning had surgery on his neck in May 2011. Without its franchise quarterback, Indianapolis went 2-14. Jim Irsay, the team’s owner, elected to fire Caldwell and hire someone else to coach their incoming rookie quarterback, Andrew Luck.
“Jim had no control over that,” Polian added. “That was just fate. Sometimes you’re dealt a bad hand. He did a terrific job.”
Relationship dynamics shift when an assistant coach becomes the boss. It’s up to you to hold an entire team, including coaches and support staff, accountable. A coordinator has an easier time being a supposed player’s coach when they're an assistant, especially when they’re promoted from within. Brady has made that adjustment before, albeit in a very different role and at a younger age.
Jimmye Laycock, longtime coach at William & Mary, did not like to hire a player shortly after their eligibility ended. He thought it was too difficult for someone that young to transition from teammate to boss. You can’t continue to be friends with the people you’re leading and teaching. There needs to be a relationship built on trust, but there’s a fine line that many struggle to toe when they’re breaking into the business. Laycock encouraged aspiring coaches to go elsewhere, then return once they obtained experience.
McDermott showed enough as a player at William & Mary for Laycock to immediately hire him. A few of Laycock's assistant coaches on defense pushed for Brady to join the staff in 2013, but Laycock eventually agreed to give the recent graduate an opportunity to guide the team’s linebackers. Brady will need to make a similar transition in Buffalo, where he used a blend of energy, honesty and humility to guide players as their offensive coordinator for two-plus seasons.
“The first thing he learned as a young coach was how to be professional and how to separate his personal relationships with the players he played with and his role as a coach,” said Scott Boone, William & Mary’s defensive coordinator at the time. “We never worried about him being buddy-buddy with the players and part of that was probably because he was on defense, not offense, where the guys he actually played with. That was probably a real smart move to put him on defense. He was mature beyond his years. He kept the separation that he needed.”
The challenges ahead will be very different for Brady. He’s going to balance his role as a CEO with offensive play-calling, though he hired one of Sean Payton’s longtime assistants, Pete Carmichael Jr., to assist with game planning and installation. At the same time, Brady must find ways to improve the offense, especially following a season in which Allen was sacked a career-high 40 times. Brady must build relationships with players on defense and special teams. He’ll need to shuttle between different meeting rooms rather than sticking to offense.
Patience was not afforded to several past NFL coaches who were promoted from within. Jim Mora (Seahawks), Hue Jackson (Raiders), Romeo Crennel (Chiefs), Jim Tomsula (49ers), Freddie Kitchens (Browns), Lovie Smith (Texans), Antonio Pierce (Raiders) and Jerod Mayo (Patriots) lasted only one season.
Smith deserves an asterisk because he planned to retire until the Texans begged him in 2022 to provide stability and leadership for a team that lacked talent. Two of those one-and-done coaches were replaced by someone who went on to win a Super Bowl. Kitchens was replaced by Kevin Stefanski, a two-time coach of the year in Cleveland.
The Jaguars gave Doug Marrone four seasons, in large part because he led the team to the AFC championship game with quarterback Blake Bortles in Year 1. Jason Garrett got nine seasons in Dallas because his offenses were successful and they were usually competitive. The Cowboys won three division titles and reached the divisional round three times, but they missed the playoffs six times.
Jerry Jones, the Cowboys’ owner, kept Garrett after three consecutive 8-8 seasons to start his tenure, before they broke out with a 12-4 record in 2014. He balanced play-calling with head coach duties, eventually relinquishing the former during his third season because the team was struggling to break through.
“I've never been a head coach before,” Brady acknowledged. “I'm understanding of that. The only way to get head coaching experience is to be a head coach. But I think the most important thing is surrounding yourself with people that you can trust and you can lean on as you grow through it. There's going to be elements, and I'm going to make mistakes. I'm not going to be perfect, but I'm going to do everything I can to continue to grow through that. There's gonna be a lot of conversation about figuring all that out.”
To remove any possible bias, Beane treated Brady's interview as if he were an external candidate. The man tasked with lifting the Bills over the proverbial playoff wall described his two interviews as "intense." Midway through a video conference call, as the Bills were nearing a decision, Beane decided Brady was the perfect coach for the job. It didn't take Pegula long to agree.
The Bills' top decision-makers didn't select a proven head coach, but Brady is a known commodity. He had received several interviews with other teams. The Ravens spoke to him twice before they hired Jesse Minter. If Brady wasn't hired by Buffalo, he likely would have joined a different contender as an offensive coordinator and re-entered the interview process in one year.
The 2026 season will not begin for seven months. History is not on the side of Brady or the Bills, however, they already overcame long odds when they snapped a 17-year playoff drought and became one of the NFL's model franchises.
"Joe’s a known commodity," said Polian. "I presume he has a philosophy, good plan and he’s very smart. I believe he has a philosophy of football fits with what Brandon and Terry want. I would expect it will be a pretty smooth transition."
Thanks for the promotion
Here's a look at assistant coaches who were promoted since 2008:
| Year | Name | Team | Previous position | Record | Playoff app. |
| 2008 | Mike Singletary | 49ers | Assistant HC/LB | 18-22 | 0 |
| 2008 | Tom Cable | Raiders | Offensive line coach | 17-27 | 0 |
| 2009 | Jim Caldwell | Colts | Assistant HC/QB | 26-22 | 2 |
| 2009 | Raheem Morris | Buccaneers | Defensive backs | 17-31 | 0 |
| 2009 | Jim Mora | Seahawks | Assistant HC/DB | 5-11 | 0 |
| 2011 | Jason Garrett | Cowboys | Assistant HC/OC | 80-64 | 3 |
| 2011 | Leslie Frazier | Vikings | Assistant HC/DC | 18-29 | 1 |
| 2011 | Hue Jackson | Raiders | Offensive coordinator | 8-8 | 0 |
| 2011 | Mike Munchak | Titans | Offensive line | 22-26 | 0 |
| 2012 | Rome Crennel | Chiefs | Defensive coordinator | 2-14 | 0 |
| 2015 | Jim Tomsula | 49ers | Defensive line | 5-11 | 0 |
| 2016 | Ben McAdoo | Giants | Offensive coordinator | 13-15 | 1 |
| 2016 | Dirk Koetter | Buccaneers | Offensive coordinator | 19-29 | 0 |
| 2016 | Mike Mularkey | Titans | Assistant HC/TE | 18-14 | 1 |
| 2017 | Doug Marrone | Jaguars | Assistant HC/OL | 22-42 | 1 |
| 2019 | Freddie Kitchens | Browns | Assistant HC/RB | 6-10 | 0 |
| 2022 | Lovie Smith | Texans | Associate HC | 3-13 | 0 |
| 2022 | Dennis Allen | Saints | Defensive coordinator | 18-25 | 0 |
| 2022 | Todd Bowles | Buccaneers | Defensive coordinator | 35-33 | 3 |
| 2024 | Antonio Pierce | Raiders | Linebackers coach | 4-13 | 0 |
| 2024 | Jerod Mayo | Patriots | Inside linebackers coach | 4-13 | 0 |