'It's coming': What's wrong with the Bills' passing game and can they fix it?
The Bills and Chiefs have had epic matchups – including two AFC championship games – over the past five years, and it's unusual for their annual clash to come at a time when the Bills' passing attack is sputtering.
n four seasons to start his NFL career, Elijah Moore had never seen anything like the Buffalo Bills’ weekly player-driven offensive meeting led by Josh Allen.
Every position group gathers around the reigning MVP quarterback as Allen details each player’s responsibility on every play in the game plan, then he asks for their feedback. Are there are any plays they’re not comfortable running against their next opponent? Are there any that the players want to prioritize? Though offensive coordinator Joe Brady has final say, he has empowered Allen and his teammates to take ownership.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has thrown 12 touchdowns and four interceptions through seven games this season.
Harry Scull, Buffalo News
“Josh has a standard,” said Moore, a wide receiver amid his first season in Buffalo. “When you’ve done it at a high level, you continue to raise your standard and that’s what he does in those meetings. He’s very detailed in what he does.”
The tenor of those conversations aren’t the panic-stricken chatter you may hear at the watercooler or local bar. Every leader on the Bills’ offense insists they’re not remotely concerned. But this team’s passing attack hasn’t met Allen’s standard.
Over their last four games, he was sacked 10 times and threw four interceptions. After completing just six of 13 passes in the first half of a 40-9 win Sunday in Charlotte, Allen explained to reporters that he wasn’t trusting his feet or eyes. Through seven games, he’s been sacked as many times (14) as he was in 17 games last season.
While Brady expressed no concern over the passing game, Bills coach Sean McDermott said Monday it must improve because his offense can’t be one-dimensional. The Bills didn’t need to throw the ball against the Panthers because James Cook ran for a career-high 216 yards and the Bills’ defense forced three turnovers, but can their offense score enough points if they can’t run the ball?
The game at Highmark Stadium at 4:25 p.m. Sunday is labeled as the NFL’s game of the week, in large part because of Allen and his counterpart, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
They have had epic matchups – including two AFC championship games – over the past five years, and it’s unusual for their annual clash to come at a time when the Bills’ passing attack is sputtering.
“I think I’ve said this for a long time, it’s never as good, it’s never as bad as you think,” said Allen. “So when you have a really good game and you go in, you think it’s going to be really good, and sometimes it’s not as good as you thought. Sometimes you feel like you had a bad game, and you go and watch it and it’s not as bad you thought.
”But there’s still the want and the hunger to continue to get better with myself mechanically, and just making sure I’m doing the right things, and trying to find myself and put myself in the best spots possible to deliver the best ball that I can to our receivers to go make plays for us. So that’s what we’re working on this week.”
In late April, Bills general manager Brandon Beane made headlines when he vehemently defended his receiving corps during an interview on WGR Radio. One week later, the team signed Moore, who had consecutive 100-target seasons in Cleveland, to a one-year deal. And, through Week 1 this season, the team’s plan at wide receiver seemed like it may be enough to lift the offense in 2025.
The passing game looked as prolific as ever in their unprecedented come-from-behind win over the Baltimore Ravens, as Allen completed 21 of 29 passes for 281 yards and four total touchdowns in the second half. In the fourth quarter alone, second-year receiver Keon Coleman had seven catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. Allen had completions of 51, 32, 29, 26, 25, 22 and 21 yards.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen, under center Connor McGovern, prepares to take a snap against the Panthers on Sunday in Charlotte, N.C.
Harry Scull, Buffalo News
When the Bills needed to pass the ball in losses to the Patriots and Falcons, no one could get open downfield. On throws that travel 20-plus yards, Allen’s nine completions are tied for 17th and his 238 yards are 23rd, according to Pro Football Focus. He has zero touchdown passes and three interceptions. Last season, Allen ranked sixth with 26 completions on throws of 20-plus yards and seventh with 816 yards. His average depth of target is slightly lower (8.7 to 8.2), but he’s not connecting when he throws downfield.
A downfield threat hasn’t emerged since Joshua Palmer suffered knee and ankle injuries during the second quarter of the team’s Week 6 loss in Atlanta. Coleman has 16 catches for 125 yards and a touchdown over the past six games. Only two Bills wide receivers have more than 14 catches this season, and their inability to get open downfield has forced the offense to rely on yards after the catch.
Khalil Shakir is one of the best in the league at turning short catches into long gains. The Bills’ No. 1 receiver has 31 catches for 365 yards and three touchdowns. But this team needs someone to stretch the field so defenses can’t focus on short and intermediate throws to Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid.
”Look, you guys know I trust Josh more than anyone,” said Brady. “At halftime (Sunday), he knew. I looked him in the eye. He knew he wasn’t playing like he’s the best player in the world, right? And there’s a standard that he always wants to play with.
”And when he misses on a couple throws, when he misses on some decisions, when a drive stalls, especially with the way we were running it (against Carolina), it opens up the pass game, right? He does a great job of understanding, ‘Hey, what happened there? What was the issue? Was it my mechanics? Was it my feet? Was it the ball placement? I didn’t see it right.’ “
Allen isn’t among the league leaders in any of the major passing categories. He’s 12th in completion percentage (68), tied for 14th in touchdown passes (12) and 20th in passing yards (1,560). Penalties are part of the problem. The Bills had 37 penalties accepted over the last four games – there were only 14 in Weeks 1 through 3 – and living off schedule shrinks the margin for error.
It’s not the first time the Bills’ passing attack has sputtered. Remember last season when they averaged 140.5 yards in consecutive losses to the Ravens and Texans? Beane eventually acquired veteran receiver Amari Cooper to stretch the field, which kept defenses honest. The Bills envisioned Coleman as a receiver who could get open for deep passes, especially against single-high safety looks, but Palmer was more effective in that role prior to his injury. The key, according to Shakir, is executing when Brady calls a passing play.
”We have developed that everybody eats mentality and if I’ve got to go block 50 times a game, I’m gonna go block 50 times a game, you know?” said Shakir. “We all trust each other and we trust Joe and the play-calling. Whatever it is, go out there and execute our job. I’m not one to sit here and look into whether we’re running or passing the ball. It’s, ‘Are we winning?’ That’s whatever it takes to win the game.”
The Bills are still protecting Allen. They are second in ESPN’s pass-block win rate. But, for whatever reason, 17.2% of the pressures they have allowed resulted in a sack, a rate nearly twice as high (9%) as last season. The Chiefs (5-3) are third in the NFL in EPA per play allowed, according to Next Gen Stats, and their use of two-high safety looks will make it challenging for the Bills to throw downfield. It’s a defense that’s stout against the run and pass, but Kansas City can be vulnerable, especially against play-action passes.
Even though the Colts are 7-1 and the Patriots are first in the AFC East, the winning team Sunday in Orchard Park will be considered the favorite to emerge as the No. 1 seed for the AFC playoffs. For the Bills (5-2) to win this latest duel with the Chiefs, they are going to need Allen to unlock the potential of the passing game.
”I feel like we haven’t even touched what we can do,” said Moore, who Allen missed on an outbreaking route in the second quarter last week. “Obviously, we’ve got a lot of playmakers, but we haven’t seen a full game where everybody does they thing, all three phases. It’s coming.”
