Jim Kubiak: Josh Allen, Bills played their best vs. Chiefs because of what they didn't do. Take a look
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills demonstrated just how incredible their level of execution can be against a poised and prepared opponent Sunday in their 28-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen looks downfield during their game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, Nov. 2, 2025, in Orchard Park. The Bills defeated the Chiefs 28-21.
Jim Kubiak is in his eighth season of analyzing the play of Buffalo Bills quarterbacks for The Buffalo News. Kubiak is the all-time leading passer at Navy, has played in the NFL, NFL Europe and the Arena Football League and has been a coach and executive in the AFL. He spent eight years as the radio analyst for the University at Buffalo and runs the Western New York Quarterback Academy to help develop the next generation of quarterbacks. He is the former head coach at Hilbert.
Quarterbacks are evaluated each quarter using a “Doing Your Job” grading system for every play that takes into account the quarterback’s responsibilities and outcome. The accountability system rewards a quarterback with a plus for a play in which he does what he is supposed to do, a minus for not doing what he is supposed to do. A quarterback can earn a plus-plus for an extraordinary play and a minus-minus for a play that hurts the team.
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Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills demonstrated just how incredible their level of execution can be against a poised and prepared opponent Sunday in their 28-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.
This game wasn’t only about beating the Chiefs, who have prevented the Bills from reaching the Super Bowl in the Allen era. It was also about proving how the complementary balanced formula of run and pass with great defense, can be the difference against any opponent.
The Buffalo defense, whose season has been marked by an inability to stop the run, stuffed the Chiefs, allowing just 79 yards on 20 carries. This amounted to 4 yards per carry, which was a far cry from the NFL-worst 5.8 yards per carry they'd allowed before this game. The defense hit Patrick Mahomes 15 times, sacked him three times and flustered him with pocket-collapsing precision.
Mahomes completed just 15 of 34 attempts (44.1%), his new all-time regular-season low, for 250 yards and one interception as the Chiefs went 3 of 13 on third down. This was a big-time performance from a defense that has struggled to silence their doubters.
Allen played with peak poise and execution. He was remarkably efficient, accurate and in command. Credit offensive coordinator Joe Brady for a highly effective game plan that included the first 100-yard rusher against the Chiefs since the 2024 regular-season opener. The Bills pounded James Cook III 27 times for 114 yards.
Brady also called counterpunches to the potency of Cook with simple and effective passing tools that kept Allen on time and in the system.
The result was Allen completing an astounding 23 of 26 attempts (88.5%), a franchise record, for 273 yards and one touchdown. He also carried two sneaks into the end zone. His first touchdown sneak was the 78th of his career, breaking the NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a quarterback previously held by Cam Newton.
The biggest takeaway from this game, in my opinion, was getting an opportunity to touch the ceiling. What we saw was every player, including Allen, doing his job to the best of his ability. The team came together, much like they did against the Baltimore Ravens in an important Week 1 victory – but in this game, they did it more consistently and in a more physically dominant way.
To a large extent, this Bills team has underperformed this season, often matching the skill of their opponents and executing to that level. Against the Chiefs, the gloves came, off and they soared to their potential and ability, dominating in ways we hoped they could. They did so against a fast, talented and seasoned opponent.
FIRST QUARTER
Play selection: 17 plays (10 passes, seven runs)Allen: 8 for 10 passing, 64 yards, 1 TD; 0 carries for 0 yards
Performance grade: 100%
Score: Bills, 7-0.
Fast starts make a difference in how the rest of the game plays out, and the Bills filled their first drive with 11 plays and a combination of Cook runs and Allen completions. The Bills went 84 yards in 6:53 on a masterful possession.
Watch how Brady neutralized the Chiefs’ blitz on third-and-4, just four plays before Allen’s touchdown pass.
1. Third-and-4: Bills neutralize the Chiefs' blitz
The Bills expected the blitz on this initial third down, and they neutralized it with this quick screen to Ty Johnson. Watch as Johnson shifts out behind the three receivers set to Allen’s right. Chiefs linebacker Nick Bolton is the fourth defender to that side. He blitzes, which gives the Bills three blockers for Johnson and three remaining defenders without Bolton.
This is the kind of play that would have worked even if Bolton hadn’t blitzed because both safeties were deep, but the Bolton’s blitz enhanced the effectiveness.
Quick throws and great blocking sprung these types of neutralizing plays. This first down gave Allen the opportunity to throw this touchdown pass.
2. Josh Allen's touchdown pass to Dalton Kincaid
Here, on third-and-8, the Chiefs decided not to blitz and played Cover 1, man-to-man with one safety, while also bracketing Khalil Shakir with two defenders, Nohl Williams and Chamarri Conner. Had Allen targeted Shakir, the Chiefs had both inside and outside leverage on him.
In this defensive scheme, linebacker Drue Tranquill had man-to-man coverage on tight end Dalton Kincaid, which was the mismatch Allen identified and attacked. Kincaid ran a great corner route that would have been a complete pass even if Tranquill hadn’t fallen down.
The other key aspect to this play was the respect that Keon Coleman received from the free safety, Bryan Cook. As the single deep safety, Cook was responsible for over-the-top coverage but couldn’t get there because he was trying to help with the possibility of Coleman running a slant or a fade. Those are Coleman’s best attributes as a big and physical receiver, and Cook hedged toward Coleman's side. This meant Tranquill had no help over the top.
Allen made the easy throw for the first touchdown of the game. This is a common route for Brady to call, and we have seen this formation and concept with two short digs and a corner route many times. The difference here was the identification of the defensive weakness and the perfect execution.
There was no hesitation. Allen was certain of what he had.
With this touchdown, the Bills took a 7-0 lead.
The Chiefs went three-and-out on their first possession and gave the ball back to the Bills 54 seconds later. The Bills had a chance to take a two score lead.
Allen led a 6-play drive to midfield before the offense failed to convert this fourth-and-2.
3. Fourth-and-2: Bills fail to convert vs. Chiefs
Here, on fourth-and-2, coach Sean McDermott elected to go for it. This was an aggressive call dictated more by the Chiefs and the offensive juggernaut they can be than by McDermott’s natural instinct.
Brady was caught between the decision to run Cook or give Allen the chance to make the play throwing the football or scrambling. The Chiefs hurried late onto the field and ultimately broke up a pass intended for Shakir. However, Allen had Kincaid on a quick-out immediately as cornerback Jaylen Watson (35), in zone coverage, turned and matched the corner route. Had Allen thrown it to him, Kincaid would have had the first down.
Credit the Chiefs’ safety, Cook, with a superb break on the ball as Allen threw a strike to Shakir on a dig route. This foiled the play.
The Chiefs mounted a seven-play drive from here that ended with the tying touchdown as the second quarter began.
The first quarter was a strong showing for the Bills on both sides. They physically and strategically paced the Chiefs, attacking and defending with anticipatory schemes. Allen was impressive, completing 8 of 10 attempts for 64 yards. Tight end Jackson Hawes dropped a sure completion and Shakir had his fourth-down attempt deflected away with a great defensive play. Every pass was on target and on time for Allen, who was tuned into the system and took what the defense was gave – more so than he had done all season.
SECOND QUARTER
Play selection: 15 plays (seven passes, eight runs)Allen: 6 of 6 passing, 112 yards, 0 TDs, 1 sack; two carries for 0 yards, 1 TD
Performance grade: 94%
Score: Bills, 21-13.
Following the Chiefs’ tying touchdown, the Bills went three-and-out as Allen was sacked by George Karlaftis and Ashton Gillotte on a third-and-4 trying to scramble. This was a nice job by both defenders as they rushed upfield and then recovered back into the play when Allen tried to take off.
The Bills punted and gave the Chiefs their first opportunity to take a lead. They did just that with a field goal to go ahead 10-7, their only lead of the game.
Allen’s next drive, his fourth of the game, was electric. The drive started with this remarkable flip completion to Hawes for 18 yards.
4. Josh Allen's flip to Jackson Hawes for an 18-yard gain vs. Chiefs (slow motion)
This was much like a backdoor cut in basketball. Nick Bolton covered Hawes, but he left his man to tackle Allen on his scramble. Hawes immediately went to the open area, and Allen flipped it to him with his right hand, anticipating his movement.
This is not taught in football, as only a few people in the world are capable of such craft, Allen being one of them. The ball traveled an incredible 16 yards in the air with this flick of the wrist for a drive-changing first down.
Three plays later, following a holding penalty by Dawson Knox, Allen answered again with this 47-yard explosive play to Kincaid.
Here, on second-and-14, the Chiefs’ defense bluffed and rolled into a Cover 2 zone after the snap.
5. Josh Allen's explosive pass play to Dalton Kincaid vs. Chiefs
The only thing better than the Chiefs’ disguised Cover 2 was Allen’s ability to stay in the pocket and attack the defensive weakness. It took recognition and discipline to wait for Kincaid to work across the field for the huge 47-yard completion.
This pre-snap defensive posture indicated a potential six-man blitz pressure with man-to-man behind the rush. At the snap, however, the Chiefs bailed out of the blitz to play Cover 2 zone. This went from a six-man rush to just a three-man rush with seven players dropping into the zone.
One of the unusual aspects of this alignment for the Bills was Kincaid playing the single receiver X-position. In doing so, Brady used "11" personnel (one running back, one tight end) differently than conventional wisdom dictates. He put Coleman, Shakir, and Curtis Samuel to Allen’s left on the same side. Generally, the tight end plays inside at the No. 2 or 3 receiver position in a trips formation. Kincaid is so dynamic and such a great route-running tight end that he is carrying receiver responsibilities as a split end.
Allen watched as Samuel burst up into the middle of the field, taking three defenders with him, and waited for Kincaid to cross. This was MVP-level processing, and the completion immediately erased a penalty.
Brady had some tricks up his sleeve as well.
Immediately following this completion, the Bills’ offense shifted into a hurry-up mode, utilizing the same 11 personnel grouping for the Bills in two consecutive plays that led to a touchdown run by Johnson. Kincaid became a blocker on both of those plays in a conventional tight end alignment.
The Bills didn’t change personnel, and this prevented the Chiefs from changing personnel. The defense was stuck in their second-and-13 nickel package for two consecutive runs inside the 5-yard line. This was a brilliant use of tempo as a strategy to prevent defensive reinforcements from entering the game.
And of course, no offense can do this without a talented and well-rounded skill set from three receivers, one tight end and one running back. The Chiefs were unprepared for this tactical maneuver and had no answer for it.
The Bills took another lead with this touchdown, 14-10.
The Bills’ defense stopped a Chiefs fourth-and-3 on their next possession, and this turnover on downs gave Allen and the Bills a chance to make it a two-score game with the ball on their 40-yard line.
Five plays into this drive, behind two piercing Cook runs and two short completions, Brady called this terrific play-action pass on first-and-10 for a 30-yard completion.
6. First-and-10 play-action: Josh Allen's 30-yard pass to Dawson Knox
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With Cook having tremendous success rushing the football, Brady used "22" personnel (two backs, two tight ends, one wide receiver) for this play-action pass on first down. The Chiefs were fooled, thinking it was a run to the right.
The Chiefs’ cornerback Watson, and their safety, Cook, took the bait. Knox and Hawes blocked initially, which drew the defenders into run support. As they released down the field on post and go routes, the Chiefs were beaten badly, and Allen tossed the ball to Knox, who was behind both defenders to that side of the field.
This was a great example of how the success of the running game can feed the passing game for easy chunk plays. The personnel grouping and timing of this call were an outstanding use of deception. Knox and Hawes can block and can become receivers. When the running game is having success, the defense has no choice but to stop the run first. Credit Brady with the creative and aggressive call and Allen for the perfect throw. This 30-yard completion set up the Bills’ next touchdown. Allen scored two plays later on a sneak to give the Bills a 21-10 lead just before halftime.
The Chiefs mount a last-ditch effort for points with under a minute remaining, but the Bills defense came up with a crucial goal-line stand and forced the Chiefs into a field goal, making the score 21-13 Bills at the break.
In the first half, the Bills dominated the time of possession, 17:21 to 12:39, third-down conversions Buffalo: 3 for 5; Kansas City: 1 for 5). Physically and strategically, the Bills were ahead of the Chiefs on both sides of the football. Allen completed 15 of 17 passes for 176 yards and one touchdown, and Cook rushed 11 times for 64 yards.
The Bills outrushed the Chiefs 76-56-yards, and Allen outpaced Mahomes through the air, 174-118. Penalties at halftime had the Bills with 4 for 40 yards, with the Chiefs at only one for 5 yards.
The mindset in this game, from the Bills’ perspective, was to run the football with power and take advantage of the Chiefs as they allocated resources to stop the run. Defensively, the Bills had to stop the run and disrupt Mahomes. The Bills executed each of these areas to perfection in what was their best first half of football this season.
THIRD QUARTER
Play selection: 16 plays (seven passes, nine runs)Allen: 6 of 7 passes, 77 yards, 0 TDs; 2 carries for 12 yards, 1 TD
Performance grade: 100%
Score: Bills, 28-13.
The third quarter began with a Chiefs opportunity to get within one score of the Bills, but the Buffalo defense forced a three-and-out on the opening possession, giving Allen the offense an early opportunity at the 13:23 mark.
The offense mounted an eight-play drive to midfield before stalling. Buffalo punted back to the Chiefs, and the seesaw battle continued.
The Bills’ defense held again and sacked Mahomes following an intentional grounding penalty. This forced a second straight punt by the Chiefs and propelled Allen and the offense on their next drive.
Allen took over from his own 26-yard line and went to work with 5:31 remaining in the third quarter.
Cook was dangerous and steady as he carried three times for 16 yards before Allen made this outstanding completion to Elijah Moore on second-and-8.
7. Josh Allen’s best throw vs. Chiefs: Second-and-8 to Elijah Moore
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Here, on second-and-8, the Chiefs had the right defense called to stop this play. They lined up in a blitz look but only brought five rushers.
The configuration of the pressure to Allen’s right had his protection solid on this side, but there was a rusher unaccounted for on Allen’s left. It was Trent McDuffie, who originally lined up in coverage on Moore.
Allen stood in the pocket, undeterred, and delivered a perfect throw on the high angle corner route. These tight corner throws are very difficult, but Allen sliced it between the rotating free safety and sloughing cornerback, Williams, for a gashing 28-yard gain.
Allen, known for his unpredictable scrambling, stood strong in the pocket with a free rusher and delivered an amazing completion. This was his best of the day, in my opinion, because of the circumstances and degree of difficulty.
Three plays later, Allen carried his second sneak of the game into the end zone to extend the lead, 28-13.
Allen never seemed surprised by anything the Chiefs’ defense was doing. He was anticipating and attacking their maneuvers and the changes from pre- to post-snap. He was cool, collected and very intentional. This throw was in-system, on-time, and deadly accurate – reminiscent of how he played last season as the NFL MVP.
To gain perspective on what Allen has already accomplished in his young career, this 79th rushing touchdown surpassed the great running back Earl Campbell all-time for regular-season and postseason combined rushing touchdowns. That is simply astonishing.
The Chiefs came thundering back with an 11-play scoring drive that they would cap with a two-point conversion. The drive included a converted fourth-and-17 and a fourth-and-1 to somehow claw themselves back into the game, 28-21.
FOURTH QUARTER
Play selection: 15 plays (two passes, 13 runs)Allen: 2 for 2 passing, 20 yards; two sacks; two carries for 7 yards
Performance grade: 94%
Score: Bills, 28-21
The momentum shifted in the Chiefs’ favor as the Bills began their eighth series with 11:21 to play. Here, a score of any kind, field goal or touchdown, would have quelled the whispers of a Chiefs’ comeback.
Instead, the Bills’ offense gave up back-to-back sacks on second-and-10 and on third-and-14. The first sack was a six-man blitz that outnumbered the Bills' five-man pass protection. Allen had no chance as the Bills were fooled on the play.
Then, on third-and-14, the Chiefs rushed three men, dropped seven into a deep dime package Cover 2 shell, and spied Allen with linebacker Leo Chenal.
8. Chiefs sack Josh Allen on third-and-14
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Here, Allen climbed the pocket aggressively and picked a side. Chenal did a superb job of maintaining position to trigger either way. Allen happened to go to the right side of the field, perhaps because he had more receivers on that side, or because it's more a natural movement. Allen appeared to have more space to his left, and had he gone that way, perhaps he would've had a more positive outcome.
That said, credit the Chiefs’ defense for finding a way to get back-to-back sacks at a critical point.
The Chiefs had put themselves into position to tie the score on the next drive, but the Bills’ defense prevailed. Five plays into the Chiefs’ drive, Mahomes threw an interception to rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston – the only interception of the game on third-and-11. This turnover set up Allen and the Bills’ offense with their final possession of the game.
9. Arrow Snag: Josh Allen moves the chains
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This is the kind of play late in the game that Allen executed to perfection. This was "13" personnel, as Brady employed all three of his tight ends with Cook the lone running back and Coleman the lone receiver.
On second-and-8 from the Bills' own 35-yard line, it looked like Cook was going to get the ball again. But because of the versatility of Kincaid, Knox and Hawes, the Bills also have an effective passing attack using this personnel.
Here, Allen had easy access to Kincaid on an arrow-route in the flat because McDuffie was sucked inside by Coleman. With Kincaid attached to the line of scrimmage, perhaps McDuffie had difficulty seeing Kincaid because he didn’t react to him at all until it was too late.
This simple concept – and Allen’s willingness to throw it quickly and on time – made the difference on this play and in the game. He was trying to attack immediately rather than waiting for something more to develop.
To me, this was the style of play that led him to become the MVP last season, and it was wonderful to see him return to this mindset in this game. This style of play, this “in the system” philosophy, can be unstoppable if Allen continues to stay on schedule.
Allen converted another third-and-3 with a completion while draining all of the Chiefs’ timeouts before the two-minute warning.
Time was the most important commodity the Bills and McDermott had. The choice to run Cook on second-and-9 and drain the clock down to 1:11 before taking their final timeout was the right one. This created a third-and-7 situation where an incomplete pass would have stopped the clock and preserved time for the Chiefs to mount a final rally.
By running the ball in this situation, the Bills guaranteed that the clock would run while they prepared for the field goal that would have iced the game. Again, time was the single most important factor to control and eliminate.
Matt Prater – who has made 82 career field goals from 50-plus yards, the most in NFL history – hit the right post on the kick. This missed field goal left the Chiefs with 22 seconds and no timeouts.
Despite the missed field goal, McDermott made all of the correct decisions as he systematically drained the timeouts, then drained the clock to almost nothing. The scenario was designed for Prater to make the kick as that would have ended the game once and for all. The only hole in McDermott’s plan was a missed field goal. The time management was as good as it could have been.
Perhaps the last-ditch efforts that ultimately failed were important for the Bills to survive. I say this because of the 13-second game a few years ago that stunned us all. Maybe the last-second success defensively proved, psychologically at least, that although the Chiefs are good and get lucky, they are also not perfect and they do make mistakes.
CONCLUSION
The way Allen played this game was different to past games this year. He was laser-focused on staying in-system and being on time with his throws.This was the biggest difference in his performance. He methodically decimated the defense and delivered completion after completion. He was also able to stay out of situations that favored the Chiefs’ defense. There were very few scramble-and-make-it-up-as-you-go plays where he ran around out of system.
This was well-coordinated by Brady with the quick pass, the base concepts and the emphasis on getting the ball out early and often. Allen’s mindset wasn’t to make touchdowns; it was to throw as many completions as possible and to avoid negative plays. He did that with historic efficiency against a great defense.
That said, the Bills would not win this game without Cook, the defense and everyone in the locker room. Let’s be honest: The Bills had not played great complimentary football to this point. Perhaps it was the level of importance of this game or the rivalry, but whatever the case, the Bills played with a fire and grit that's hard to beat.
In closing, much had been made of the Bills beating the Chiefs in the regular season but not in the playoffs, and that's a fair comparison. However, every win and every step closer to the playoffs is important.
The Bills needed this victory to keep pace in the AFC playoff hunt and now stand with a 6-2 record. The Chiefs are in trouble as they sit at 5-4, now third in the AFC West behind the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers. There is a lot of football left to play.
But it's possible that this game could be the one to foil the Chiefs’ season and potential playoff berth. It could be that important down the line, and the Bills certainly played like they thought so.
Overall QB Performance Grade: 97%
Passing: 23 of 26 (88.5%), 273 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTsRushing: 6 Rushes, 19 yards, 2 TDs, 0 fumbles