Must Beat the Patriots
- Thread starter sukie
- Start date
Same here. I watched them humiliate this team year after year, Hate them
Bill Polar
Well-known member
I never saw Chiefs fans wish for Josh to get injured. I have been lurking at multiple Cheaties fans sites and too many people are hoping the Pats end his season this Sunday. They are a hideously vile lot.
Victor7
Well-known member
Agreed. Pats and their fans are scum. As much as I dislike the Chiefs for what they do to us I blame that more on McD and their fans are mostly ok. This lot is something else though. I hate them. And while yes they are playing good ball it has to be said that they have played an absolute cake walk of a schedule. The nonsense will stop at some point.
Now I hate that my cousin played for the Chiefs
NFL Week 15 picks against the spread: Can Josh Allen carry the Bills past the Patriots?
The Bills, like most teams, are flawed, but Allen is playing like a superhero. Meanwhile, can the Ravens and Chiefs turn it around?
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The Bills, like most teams, are flawed, but Josh Allen is playing like a superhero. Jamie Schwaberow / Getty Images
The Athletic has live coverage of Falcons vs. Buccaneers in NFL ‘Thursday Night Football.’
No spoilers if you haven’t seen the new “Superman” yet, but it’s been six months … and it takes a lot to kill Superman. Turns out it’s not possible (and there’s a cute dog) … which brings us to Josh Allen.
The Cincinnati Bengals had him on the ropes last week, but they wanted to keep throwing the ball with the lead in the fourth quarter. And now, Allen’s kryptonite, Patrick Mahomes, is all but eliminated from the playoffs.
Cue the music.
The first order of business in an Allen Super Bowl run is avenging an October loss to the New England Patriots. The Bills, like every other team other than the Los Angeles Rams, are flawed — they don’t have any receivers Allen can trust, and they can’t stop the run — but at least they have been busy tweaking and adapting since that first loss to the Patriots.
The Bills run the ball well and have used play-action on a higher percentage of their dropbacks over the past two weeks (48 percent) than any other team in the NFL. Otherwise, Allen will complete short passes (his longest to a receiver Sunday was 17 yards) or take off running himself (78 yards against the Bengals, 12 touchdowns on the season).
A win by Allen’s Bills on Sunday would essentially end Patriots quarterback Drake Maye’s MVP chances (Matthew Stafford is likely going to win anyway). And it would definitely help us finally get over .500 against the spread for the season, which might deserve some theme music as well.
Last week’s record: 7-7 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets
Season record: 101-101-6 against the spread, 34-36 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) | 8:15 p.m. (ET) Thursday, Amazon Prime
Baker Mayfield’s shoulder must be worse than he is letting on, as he is coming off his fourth straight game with fewer than 200 passing yards — the longest drop in his roller-coaster career. But I can’t roll with Kirk Cousins on a short week, especially when the Falcons’ special teams crew is bad enough to screw up even a decent Cousins outing.Besides, Mike Evans is back for the Bucs. Mayfield ranked fourth in passing yards per game (256.5) and EPA per dropback (0.3) in the first six weeks; he was 23rd in passing yards (169.0) and 37th in EPA per dropback (-0.1) in the last seven games without Evans.
The pick: Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
Pouring one out for the Positivity Rabbit. I would never have picked the Eagles last week if I knew they were resorting to large inflatables in the locker room to cheer players up. Man, they lost to a quarterback Monday who was playing with a broken hand, had two fumbles and an interception while throwing for 139 yards.Now, the Eagles are averaging 16.2 points per game over the past five, and you want me to lay 11.5?!? Coming off a short-week, physical, overtime game on the West Coast? Are the Raiders that bad? I guess so. … Just hope Pete Carroll doesn’t kick a field goal down 14 on the final play.
The pick: Eagles
Buffalo Bills (-1) at New England Patriots | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
A couple of reasons I like the Bills besides the whole Josh Allen Superman cape thing: 1) The Patriots’ offensive line is missing some parts since beating the Bills two months ago; 2) the Patriots miss defensive tackle Milton Williams (and nose tackle Khyiris Tonga) even more, as they are last in the NFL in run defense success rate the past four games, giving up 4.9 yards a pop.The pick: Bills
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-9.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
I’ve been yelling how much I love the Texans’ defense since July, so it’s funny how often I pick against them. Hilarious. … This week, I hate the spot. Coming off wins over the Bills, Colts and Chiefs, the Texans are supposed to be locked into film of Jacoby Brissett and Bam Knight? The Cardinals just got blown out by the Rams and are due for one of their plucky close losses — seven by four points or fewer — especially if young defensive stud Walter Nolen, who returned to practice Wednesday, is back.The pick: Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
We’ve been riding shotgun while the Ravens have lost four straight against the spread, but we are ready to pivot now. Lamar Jackson is starting to move around better, and they almost came back to beat the Steelers last week.Everyone knows the Bengals are the worst in the world (yes, including other continents) at covering tight ends, so the Ravens’ ridiculous $39 million Mark Andrews extension will look good for a day. Plus, Baltimore has dropped from 74.2 percent to 44.9 at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns this season — and Santa Claus wears orange, as the Bengals have allowed TDs on 64 percent of opponent red zone drives (28th in NFL).
The pick: Ravens
Lamar Jackson, left, and the Ravens lost to the Bengals two weeks ago, but things could go differently this time around.
Ishika Samant / Getty Images
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
The Chiefs are tied for second in the league in dropped passes (24), but we think they can finally exhale now that they have been all but eliminated. And their defense looked great in the loss to the Texans.The Chargers, meanwhile, just lost yet another offensive tackle — they were last in the league in pass-block win rate and 31st in run-block win rate in Week 14 — and travel on a short week after a very physical, overtime win.
The pick: Chiefs
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-7.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
It’s supposed to be 10 degrees with wind chill around minus-10 at Soldier Field. We’ll lay the points, considering the 3-10 Browns just got run over by the Titans (who ranked 31st in rushing) and there is a huge coaching and quarterback mismatch.The pick: Bears
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
Jaxson Dart runs wild again, and this week it’s OK, as the bad Commanders linebackers need Segways to be able to make plays. The secondary isn’t good either, so the Giants’ offensive line will give Dart time to make some throws downfield as well. The Commanders are toast, and not even Marcus Mariota can lead them back to cover the spread here.The pick: Giants
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
The Jaguars have won five of six, and though overtime wins over the Raiders and Cardinals don’t impress me much, you have to give them credit. The addition of Jakobi Meyers has been huge, giving the offense some consistency and freeing up Brian Thomas Jr. deep. Their defense is solid, too. This is the most the Jaguars have been favored by in a game since 2007, but I will wait until the playoffs for the clock to strike 12 on Trevor Lawrence and company.The pick: Jaguars
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
The lowly Saints actually handled the 7-6 Panthers pretty easily in the first meeting, but I have no interest in backing a sweep — even with the trap line of 2.5. Especially when no one knows how Bryce Young will look from week to week.The pick: Panthers
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
In a month, Daniel Jones went from locking in a huge, new contract to playing with a broken leg — turns out, that’s not a great idea — to grandpa Philip Rivers walking in and asking him if he can have Jones’ jersey number. What a brutal sport. The Colts were actually in the game against the Jaguars last week when Jones went down, but Jonathan Taylor fumbled and then was stuffed on fourth-and-1, and the rout was on. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks improve to 11-3 ATS.The pick: Seahawks
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
The 49ers seemed to really enjoy their late bye week, and they have no intention of ruining their 9-4 march through injuries by napping against the Titans. Tennessee, on the other hand, might be a little satisfied coming off its second win of the season. The Titans have been walloped by the Broncos, Texans and Colts on the road by an average score of 28-9.The pick: 49ers
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
The Packers are smart. When Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon injured his groin in pregame warmups last week, Jordan Love attacked, finishing 7 of 7 for 150 yards and three touchdowns when throwing to slot receivers. And it was still a close game. The Broncos rank seventh in the NFL in success rate against pass attempts to slot receivers (51 percent), and their pass rush should force back-foot Love into some mistakes.Denver has won 10 straight, the past five by a combined 17 points. Only the 1986 Giants had a lower point differential (15) in a five-game win streak. They won the Super Bowl.
The pick: Broncos
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
While on the topic of MVPs, can we get some odds that Jahmyr Gibbs will break the 12-year QB stranglehold on the trophy in the next two to three years?We were strongly considering taking the Rams and laying the points here, though, as Puka Nacua looks healthy again, and Kyren Williams and his Mini-Me, Blake Corum, have become quite the 1-2 running punch. But we looked it up, and the prideful Lions rank second in the NFL in yards per rush allowed since Week 10 (3.6). And … they have Gibbs.
The pick: Lions
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-6) | 8:20 p.m. (ET) Sunday, NBC
The twists and turns this season … the Vikings are the first team to get shut out, then shut out an opponent in its next game since the 1992 Broncos. The Cowboys probably would have beaten the Lions last week if CeeDee Lamb didn’t get a concussion in the second quarter. He was limited in practice Wednesday, but we are certain that free-agent-to-be George Pickens will bounce back strong after his effort last week was called out.The pick: Cowboys
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday), ABC/ESPN
Aaron Rodgers, 42, threw the ball so well against the Ravens that he looked as if he had gone to Germany overnight and gotten some blood spinners. He was 3 of 3 for 121 yards on passes of 20-plus air yards, throws that were not part of the offense in the first 13 weeks. He said he just woke up feeling great — and what are the odds of that happening two weeks in a row?The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been consistent, rushing for 160-plus yards in four consecutive games for the first time since 1977. Mike McDaniel might be quirky, but he can sure draw up some run plays. Miami ranks among the top 10 in rush attempts (114) and rush yards (491) to the left, and Pittsburgh allowed a season-high 79 yards on nine carries to the left last week.
The pick: Dolphins
Best bets: The holy trinity of Mahomes, Allen and Jackson are easy money, as the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens take care of business and remind fans of the good ol’ days. We would have taken the Bears here, but the weather makes that game a crapshoot, so we’ll roll with the Buccaneers and Giants at home as the other two picks.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Rodgers wakes up achy, and the Steelers look like they did two weeks ago, while Darren Waller begins a storybook fantasy playoffs run and the Dolphins cash in at +155.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.
Bills vs. Patriots and four more Week 15 games that will have massive impact on playoff races
An impactful Week 15 slate features five games that could go a long way in deciding division-winners and the No. 1 seed in each conference.
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Bills QB Josh Allen faces off against Patriots QB Drake Maye in an AFC East battle this weekend. Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images
We have arrived at Week 15 of the NFL season, so we are finally finished with bye weeks, which means every team in the league will now have a weekly say in how the rest of the season plays out.
This week’s slate features five games that will go a long way in helping shape how these tight playoff races unfold. However, it’s not just playoff berths at stake here. We’re going to be watching games that will heavily influence division races, as well as the battle for the top seeds in both conferences, as teams vie for the coveted first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
As we have in the past few weeks, we’ll turn to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator, powered by my NFL Projection Model, to give us a look at just how much leverage these games have when it comes to playoff positioning. And there is no better place to start than with the Kansas City Chiefs, whose playoff hopes are on life support heading into the week.
Source: NFL Playoff Simulator
At this point, there isn't much else to say about the Chiefs: They need to win out to have a realistic shot at the playoffs. And while they're technically not eliminated with a loss, their path is essentially a coin flip. So when it comes to this Sunday, it's simply: Beat the Chargers, root for the Cardinals to beat the Texans, and the Jets to beat the Jaguars. Easy enough, right? But seriously, just winning out only gives the Chiefs a 47 percent chance to make the playoffs. They're going to need plenty of help, and they need to start getting it this week.
After their win against the Eagles on Monday night, the Chargers have put themselves in good position to make the playoffs at 78 percent. A win over the Chiefs doesn't clinch anything, but it pushes them to 95 percent. They'd have to feel pretty good about their chances at that point, even with a tough final three games against the Cowboys, Texans and Broncos. As for a rooting guide across the rest of the league, the Chargers will be rooting heavily against their former hero, quarterback Philip Rivers, who could start for the Colts against Seattle. The Colts have a head-to-head victory over the Chargers from earlier in the season, so an Indy loss would go a long way in helping the Chargers lock up a playoff berth.
As you can see, this one has massive implications in the AFC East. If the Bills lose, the Patriots win the division. But if the Bills win, their divisional odds jump to 24 percent. It wouldn't be an easy path to get to their sixth-straight division crown, but it would be achievable over the final three weeks, especially if they win out. Still, that wouldn't guarantee them anything, as winning out only pushes their odds of winning the AFC East to 40 percent. They would still need some help from New England.
For the Patriots, a win means their first division title since Tom Brady's final season in New England (2019). However, there's more at stake than that. My model currently projects the Patriots as the favorite to secure the top seed in the AFC at 49 percent, but a loss would drop those odds to just 29 percent. For a Patriots rooting guide, you're all going to be cheeseheads this weekend. A Patriots win paired with a Packers win over the Broncos would see New England's odds of winning the No. 1 seed jump to 79 percent.
While this may be a non-divisional game, it comes with just as much impact as the games we've already covered. For the Broncos, a win would push them to 55 percent to earn the AFC's top seed, while a loss drops them to 24 percent. Of course, the No. 1 seed is the secondary goal behind first winning the AFC West. They can't clinch this weekend, but a win against the Packers would push their odds from 87 percent to 94 percent. And if the Broncos win is paired with a Chargers loss, their odds shoot up to 98 percent.
The Packers are in a similar boat to the Broncos, though they're not sitting quite as pretty as their opponents this week. The Packers are only at 68 percent to win their division (NFC North), but a win pushes those odds up to 80 percent. The No. 1 seed isn't out of reach for them either, as they're currently at 10 percent, and a win puts them at 18 percent. For divisional sakes, the Packers and their fans should be rooting for the Browns to upset the Bears, and for the Rams to take down quarterback Jared Goff and the Lions.
The Lions will experience a 30-point swing in their playoff odds depending on whether they win or lose this Sunday. However, winning out isn't their only path to the playoffs, as they'll still have a shot if they lose one more the rest way. In fact, dropping this Rams game would actually be the best one to lose (if they're going to lose one).
Falling to the Rams and winning out still puts the Lions at 95 percent to make the playoffs, so it's not quite panic time for Lions fans. Speaking of which, they should be rooting heavily for Cleveland. The Browns beating the Bears would help the Lions' playoff odds to the tune of 11 percent. After that, small gains are made with victories by the Colts, Broncos, Titans and Vikings.
The Rams are already pretty much a lock for the playoffs, but a win would make it official. The division and No. 1 seed become the focus now, as they currently have a 57 percent chance to win the NFC West and a 48 percent chance to grab the NFC's top seed. They're not close to clinching either, but a win this week is critical if they want to remain the frontrunners. A loss drops their division and top-seed odds to 39 percent and 27 percent, respectively. As for a rooting guide, the Colts, Titans and Broncos are where the allegiances of Rams fans should be.
The Colts are maybe the hardest team to project in the NFL right now after they signed Philip Rivers to the practice squad this week. I don't expect much from Rivers or any other healthy quarterback on the Colts roster the rest of the way. No matter how you cut it, their playoff hopes are dire, with just a 20 percent chance to make it. The Colts are also double-digit underdogs this weekend in Seattle. Losing this weekend and winning out would still have them in a good spot, but they can't count on that with tough remaining games against the 49ers, Jaguars and Texans. If Rivers and the Colts can find magic — and maybe the fountain of youth while they're at it — the rooting guide is as follows for this weekend: Cardinals and Chiefs.
The Seahawks might be the second-best team in the NFL, but as it stands, they're staring down a road playoff game in the deep NFC. Their playoff odds are at 99 percent, so there isn't much to worry about there, but winning the division would be a huge boost to their Super Bowl chances, as they'd be guaranteed at least one home playoff game. For that, of course, they'll be rooting against the Rams and 49ers the rest of the season. A Seahawks win boosts their division odds to 35 percent, and if the Rams were to lose to the Lions on Sunday, the Seahawks would become the division favorite at 50 percent.
Stefon Diggs is next test for a Bills defense that needs to prove it can stop top offenses
Former Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs tortured the Bills earlier this season, totaling season highs in catches (10), targets (12) and receiving yards (146) during his return to Orchard Park with the New England Patriots.
Stefon Diggs didn’t know about the point spread until Wednesday, when a reporter informed the receiver that his New England Patriots are underdogs at home against his former team.
“Good,” said Diggs, 32, deadpanning while surrounded by reporters.
Conquerors of the AFC East for the better part of two decades, the Patriots are reveling this season in the fact that no one saw this coming. They’ll carry a 10-game win streak into their rematch Sunday at Gillette Stadium against the five-time defending division champion Buffalo Bills.
Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs has 16 catches for 228 yards in two games against the Bills since his trade from Buffalo in April 2024.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
A victory clinches the division for the Patriots (11-2). A loss opens the door for the Bills (9-4) to rally over the final three weeks of the regular season.
Coach Mike Vrabel, the former linebacker and disciple of Bill Belichick, has instilled toughness and physicality into a roster the Patriots rebuilt last offseason through the draft and free agency. Drake Maye, their franchise quarterback, is having an MVP-caliber season. And, Diggs, the receiver who they signed to be Maye’s top target, is at the forefront of the revival.
Diggs isn’t the only player the Bills must stop. They need to prevent Maye from leaving the pocket as often as he did in Week 5, when the Patriots left Highmark Stadium with a 23-20 win. Stopping the run is paramount, and New England’s rookie running back, TreVeyon Henderson, will make Buffalo pay if it misses tackles as often as it did in the first meeting. But the Bills are aware entering this game that Diggs will be at the center of Vrabel’s game plan to clinch the division.
“I feel like he has a lot of freedom to create separation,” Bills safety/cornerback Cam Lewis said. “I noticed a lot of the times the offense is based on timing, like route concepts, but especially depending on the look, he does what he needs to do to get open, and that’s kind of been his game when he was here and since leaving here. It can be tough to cover him sometimes ... you just need to try to contain him the best you can.”
Trying won’t be good enough. Diggs tortured the Bills earlier this season as he totaled season highs in catches (10), targets (12) and receiving yards (146) during his first game in Orchard Park since Buffalo traded him to Houston in April 2024. He leads the Patriots in every receiving category, except touchdowns. Diggs is a safety blanket for Maye, as he was for Josh Allen from 2020 through 2023.
The Bills have contained No. 1 wide receivers recently by using their top cornerback, Christian Benford, to shadow them throughout the game. He held the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase (two targets in 16 matchups), the Steelers’ DK Metcalf (one target in 13 matchups) and the Falcons’ Drake London (two targets in 12 matchups) to zero catches, according to Next Gen Stats.
Bills cornerback Christian Benford breaks up a pass intended for Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins on Dec. 7 at Highmark Stadium.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
Benford is a technician. He doesn’t rely on speed or athleticism. His hands and mind are his greatest weapons. The Bills often ask Benford to press opposing No. 1 receivers near the line of scrimmage to disrupt their routes and timing. The fourth-year pro has a defensive touchdown in each of the past two games, including his pick-six in the come-from-behind win over the Bengals on Sunday. He and safety Cole Bishop have been Buffalo's best defensive players this season. Benford, however, is dealing with a toe injury that may impact him this week.
“You’ve got to understand that you’re about to get the most targets,” Benford said of his role. “You’ve got to understand that you’re not perfect, so they’re going to catch passes and you’re going to make plays. Some games may go your way; some games might not. You’ve got to know every game is going to you. You’ve got to face that challenge. … If you’re playing the No. 1, you’re bound to get the ball thrown to you.”
The Patriots move Diggs around the formation, though. He did most of his damage in Week 5 by finding soft spots in the Bills' zone coverage. His snaps this season are split almost equally between the perimeter and slot, and he lined up in the slot on 70% of his snaps in their last three games. Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White and nickel cornerback Taron Johnson were Diggs’ most frequent matchups in the first meeting, when Diggs broke off his route to give Maye a friendly target during scramble drills. The Patriots know better than to allow the Bills to get the matchup they want on Diggs.
Schematically, the defense Diggs will see Sunday will be the same one the Patriots faced in Week 5. Bills coach Sean McDermott isn’t throwing out his playbook for one game. But there will be wrinkles added to the plan to try to confuse Maye and make him uncomfortable. There will be adjustments to try to exploit the Patriots’ weaknesses, most notably the absence of their stalwart rookie left tackle, Will Campbell. And, though Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns against Buffalo last week, the defense has shown signs that it is trending up in a few important areas.
The Bills aren’t missing tackles the way they did earlier this season. Their blitzes haven’t been flawless, but their rush and coverage are finally working in unison more often than not.
“It’s obviously a challenge, but I wouldn’t say it’s different, because you are who you are,” Diggs said. “They’re going to give you some different looks and some different wrinkles to kind of mess with your eyes. As a receiver, you might see a different coverage or see a guy in a different position, but they are who they are. They’re going to do what they do well. … That’s a hell of a football team. They’ve been winning. It’s going to be a lot of fun.”
The hype around this game will pit Allen against Maye and Diggs against his former team, but this is bigger than individual matchups. For the Bills' offense, it must protect the football and avoid penalties. It has committed 12 turnovers over the last five games. Allen will be able to throw against the Patriots. Dalton Kincaid, the Bills' top target, had a season-high 108 yards in the first meeting. There also should be more running lanes open for James Cook because the Patriots are missing their best defensive tackle, Milton Williams.
Winning this game won't be possible, however, unless the Bills' defense plays the way it did during the second half of Buffalo's wins over the Steelers and Bengals. The takeaways need to come earlier in the game. There needs to be more pressure on Maye than there was on Burrow. There can't be unnecessary penalties or breakdowns in the secondary. The tackling needs to be as reliable as it was the past two games, when Buffalo held Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to 3.2 yards per rush.
This game won't define the Bills' season, but it will tell us whether this defense can rise to the occasion in high-stakes games the way Allen has done throughout this eight NFL seasons.
"I'm just focused on a very good football team that is used to winning," Vrabel said. "They're determined, they're resilient and we'll have to be at our best."
Bills notebook: Buffalo’s AFC East hopes hang in the balance in Week 15
The Bills (9-4) need to beat the Patriots (11-2) on Sunday to retain hopes for a sixth straight division title.
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Josh Allen and the Bills will have to win Sunday to keep their hopes alive for an AFC East title. Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images
The Buffalo Bills will be in a position Sunday that they haven’t encountered much in the last half-decade. A team that has won the AFC East each of the last five seasons will need a victory over the New England Patriots just to keep the conversation alive for another week.
The Patriots would officially clinch the division with a win Sunday, meaning the best the Bills could hope for is a No. 5 seed — and they’d have to start their playoff journey on the road.
The Bills have mostly played things close to the vest this week, minimizing the gravity of the game by suggesting it’s no different from all the rest. The stakes, however, are quite clear.
If the Bills (9-4) were to beat the Patriots (11-2), it would, at the very least, leave the light on for a rally to win a sixth straight division title. For the Bills to complete the comeback, this is the path.
- The Bills must beat the Patriots on Sunday.
- The Patriots must lose to one of the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins in Week 17 or 18.
- In addition to the two items above, the Bills must finish with at least the same record as the Patriots.
- The Bills likely have to beat the Jets in Week 18, too, to gain the tiebreaker advantage. The only way the Bills would not need a win over the Jets in Week 18 is if the Patriots go 0-4 and the Bills win their next three, though that scenario is the least likely.
What do the Bills look like heading into the contest, and how have things shifted since their last matchup, a 23-20 loss in Week 5? Here’s our Week 15 Bills notebook.
The Bills are a different team since Week 5
Although Oct. 5 doesn’t seem like that long ago, it’s years in the context of a football season, given how much goes into the weekly evolution of a team. On that date, the Patriots issued the Bills their first loss of the season, but the terms of the matchup were a bit different than what will occur this weekend in New England. On offense and defense, the Bills operate very differently from a personnel standpoint, and on defense, we’ve seen some of their philosophy shift over their last eight games.On offense, most notably, the wide receiver room was far different. Back then, Keon Coleman was still near the top of the snap counts, Curtis Samuel was one of their most often used receivers and Tyrell Shavers was nothing more than an occasional substitute. Since, Coleman has been pushed well down the depth chart, Gabe Davis has taken his place in the lineup, Samuel has gone on Injured Reserve, Shavers has seen his role rise dramatically and the team added veteran Brandin Cooks. Elijah Moore was a healthy scratch in Week 5.
While those changes are stark, the most glaring changes have been on defense. In Week 5, the Bills were without three defensive tackles who will be available Sunday, as T.J. Sanders was hurt, Larry Ogunjobi was suspended and Jordan Phillips remained on the practice squad. Their defensive tackle rotation that week was rounded out by Phidarian Mathis, who is a weekly healthy scratch now, and Zion Logue, who struggled in his three appearances this season.
On top of that, the Bills hadn’t come close to their new identity on obvious passing downs. Taylor Rapp was still in the lineup and struggling due to injury. Part of their significant shift was when Rapp and Damar Hamlin had to go on Injured Reserve, which put Jordan Poyer into the starting lineup. Now, when they’re in obvious passing situations, the Bills make a massive substitution, replacing three to four defenders with players better equipped to play the pass. The Bills have never before used situational substitutions on defense to this degree under head coach Sean McDermott.
The group that comes out has, at a minimum, generally included Poyer, Matt Milano and a heavier defensive tackle, with safety Jordan Hancock, defensive back Cam Lewis and a lighter pass rusher coming in. Dorian Williams, who the team uses on some third downs as a spy against mobile quarterbacks, also wasn’t available in Week 5. Neither was rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who splits snaps. Williams could very well be used in that role this week against the mobile Drake Maye.
Since the Bills have made those changes, their defense’s ceiling has risen, and they’ve been a far better unit overall, able to put together big stops when needed. So while it’s not a perfect unit, and great quarterback play beat the group at times, it’s a far better situation than it was. Whether all these changes lead to a different result remains to be seen, but it will, at the very least, be a different matchup this time around.
The Bills were getting close to full health, and then Benford’s toe happened
The Bills have had less injury luck this season than in other recent campaigns. Through the first 13 game weeks, the Bills had not held a single practice in which all active members of the 53-man roster were available and participating in some capacity. Injuries are a part of the game, but a run like this is quite uncommon. The Bills have been plagued by injuries, suffered during games and during the practice week. It’s been so rough that the Bills have had to use practice squad elevations every week this season, and have used their maximum weekly allotment of two elevations in 12 of their 13 games.Things are now starting to look up, though. All four injured players who could not play last week were, at the very least, practicing. That group includes right tackle Spencer Brown, wide receiver Joshua Palmer, defensive end Joey Bosa and linebacker Terrel Bernard. Everyone else was healthy, and the Bills were incredibly close to their first fully attended practice of the 2025 regular season. Only tight end Dawson Knox, who missed Wednesday for personal reasons, and backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who missed Thursday due to illness, prevented that. The Bills had a chance to have all their players available Friday, but yet another in-practice injury Thursday leaves that in question — and it’s a big one.
Top cornerback Christian Benford, who made game-changing plays in consecutive weeks against the Steelers and Bengals, popped up on the injury report as limited with a toe injury Thursday. After practice, Benford was seen with a walking boot on his left foot, putting his status for Sunday’s game in doubt. It’s a fresh injury late in the week and one that should bring more information Friday. However, this would be a humongous blow for the Bills. Without Benford, Tre’Davious White and Hairston would be pushed into bigger roles, and cornerback Dane Jackson would likely be elevated from the practice squad. McDermott is scheduled to speak with reporters Friday morning, and if Benford cannot practice, it would be an ominous sign for his availability.
On the plus side, the Bills are likely to get Brown and Palmer back from injuries. Bosa moved around really well during practice Thursday, which boosts his odds of playing after missing a game with a hamstring injury. Other than Benford, Bernard is the biggest question mark, because Bernard did not practice at all last week. In the past, the Bills have given Bernard close to a two-week ramp-up before a return. Brown, Palmer and Bosa would boost their chances, but the Benford news is a potential matchup-defining one, given the drop-off in play from him to his full-time replacement.
The status of Christian Benford (47) for Sunday’s game is unclear. His absence would be a big blow to the Bills.Jason Miller / Getty Images
For the Bills to win, they’ll need to complete a McDermott first
Throughout McDermott’s nine years coaching the Bills, there has been one sterling mark: The team is 9-0 coming out of a bye week. It’s been a part of their season you can set your clock to — even in their worst and lone losing season under McDermott, when they went 6-10 in 2018. On the flip side, since 2017, the Bills have never defeated a team coming off its bye week, going 0-3. The Patriots, of course, just had their bye last weekend.Perhaps increasing the level of difficulty, Patriots coach Mike Vrabel led the Tennessee Titans to a 6-0 mark coming out of bye weeks and was dominant in doing so. In those six games, the Titans averaged 29.8 points and had an average margin of victory of 16 points. Only one of those six games was a one-score game, and that was in his final season, 2023, before the Titans fired him in January 2024. The key difference here is that Vrabel will be coaching an entirely different franchise. The Bills will have to break two streaks to keep their divisional hopes alive.
Bills projected practice squad elevations: DE Andre Jones Jr.
Bills projected inactives vs. Patriots**: WR Keon Coleman, OT Tylan Grable, OT Chase Lundt, DT Phidarian Mathis, LB Terrel Bernard, S Darnell Savage
(**Subject to change following Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 28, Patriots 24
There are several factors indicating a potential Bills victory Sunday. For the first time since Week 5, the Bills will have their full bank of desired running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, and they’ll likely be playing with their full offensive line, which is one of the best in the NFL. The Patriots will be without their excellent defensive tackle, Milton Williams, which raises the rushing and overall offensive profiles for the Bills in the matchup. James Cook, who fumbled twice Sunday and was bottled up for only 49 yards in the last meeting, has a chance to avenge both of those performances in Week 15.On defense, especially if they don’t have Benford, the Bills will need far more from their pass rush to speed up Maye. The Patriots quarterback makes some incredible decisions and manipulates defenses, while also presenting a mobile threat, making him extremely difficult to stop. However, the Patriots don’t boast outstanding boundary receivers as Stefon Diggs primarily lines up in the slot, giving the Bills a fighting chance to slow that group down even without Benford. Ultimately, I think the Bills have found some answers on offense and defense recently to challenge the Patriots in a way they couldn’t in Week 5. And with most of their desired starters in place, the Bills have enough to make the AFC East race just a bit tighter with a victory.
Bills at Patriots: How to watch, weather, odds, what to know
The New England Patriots can clinch the AFC East division title and earn their first playoff berth since the 2021 season when they host the Buffalo Bills. The Bills come in winners of their last two games and have won the last five division crowns.
The New England Patriots can clinch the AFC East division title and earn their first playoff berth since the 2021 season when they host the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots have won 10 straight games and are coming off their bye week. Buffalo comes in winners of their last two games and have won the last five division crowns. The Bills are also trying to avoid being swept by a division opponent for the first time since 2019. That was Tom Brady’s last season in New England, when the Bills lost both games to the Patriots.
Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabe Davis (13) and quarterback Josh Allen (17) celebrate their touchdown during the second quarter
at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., on Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
Here is the TV info and other basics for Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots:
WHO: Buffalo Bills (9-4) at New England Patriots (11-2)WHEN: 1 p.m. Sunday
WHERE: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.
TV: CBS (WIVB-TV, Ch. 4 in Buffalo). On the call: Ian Eagle, JJ Watt, Evan Washburn
RADIO: Bills Radio Network (WGR-AM, 550 in Buffalo). On the call: Chris Brown, Eric Wood, Sal Capaccio
LINE: Bills by 1½ (Over/Under: 48½)
WEATHER: 32 degrees and overcast, with winds from the north-northwest at 8-13 mph, according to AccuWeather. The forecast calls for a 60% chance of snow during the game.
Bills numbers to know: 4 trends to watch for rematch with Patriots
Bills numbers to know: 4 trends to watch for rematch with Patriots
The Bills' matchup against the Patriots' Drake Maye in Week 5 was the only time this season the second-year quarterback has not thrown a touchdown pass.
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The Bills' matchup against the Patriots' Drake Maye in Week 5 was the only time this season the second-year quarterback has not thrown a touchdown pass. Maye ranks second in passing yards (3,412), fourth in passing touchdowns (23) and second in Next Gen Stats' expected points added per drop back, but he's also taken the fourth-most sacks (40) and he's thrown four interceptions over his last six games. The Bills' defense has forced 12 turnovers over their last seven games.
Patriots quarterback Drake Maye Harry Scull, Buffalo News
3.2
Over the past two games, Buffalo's defense has allowed just 3.2 yards per carry. The Steelers and Bengals rushed for a combined 120 yards on 37 carries, which forced both teams to rely on their quarterback to try to win the game. The Bills held Patriots running backs Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson to a combined 38 yards on 13 carries. Their struggles forced New England to have Maye throw the ball 30 times.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News
26
Bills quarterback Josh Allen has 26 total touchdowns in 14 career regular-season games against the Patriots. In those contests, Allen has thrown for 2,829 yards with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. His 12 rushing touchdowns this season matched this total from 17 games in 2024. Allen has 35 total touchdowns, and he's tied for second in completion percentage (70.1%). On the road this season, however, Allen has six touchdown passes with six interceptions and he's been sacked 18 times. The Bills are 3-3 away from Orchard Park.89.5
The Patriots' defense ranks third this season in rushing yards allowed per game (89.5) and they are second in rushing touchdowns allowed (5). They've been significantly worse since they lost defensive tackle Milton Williams eight snaps into Week 11. During that span, New England ranks 23rd in EPA per rushing play, 31st in rushing success rate against, 27th in yards per carry allowed (4.7) and and 27th in rushing yards allowed per game (123.7). Bills running back James Cook rushed for 49 yards on 15 carries against New England in Week 5.
Bills-Patriots: Who you got? Buffalo News writers make their predictions for Sunday's game
Bills-Patriots: Who you got? Buffalo News writers make their predictions for Sunday's game
Members of The Buffalo News sports staff make their picks for the Bills-Patriots matchup.
Jay Skurski
The Bills are just the third team in NFL history to score at least 21 points and overcome a deficit of 10-plus points in the fourth quarter twice in a single season. The thinking here is they won’t have to do that Sunday against New England. The first game against the Patriots came down to the turnover battle, which New England won, 3-1. Even that out or swing it in Buffalo’s favor, and the Bills are the better team. The Patriots probably will still win the AFC East, but a Buffalo victory sets the stage for Round 3 in the postseason. Bills, 30-20.
Bills quarterback Josh Allen throws a pass at Highmark Stadium prior to playing the Patriots on Oct. 5.
Harry Scull, Buffalo News
Katherine Fitzgerald
After starting 1-2, the Patriots have won 10 straight. Unfortunately for the Bills, I think that continues on Sunday. The possibility of not having cornerback Christian Benford looms large – he’s been their best player on defense in back-to-back weeks. On the offensive side of the ball, the Bills will want to establish the run early. James Cook’s 49 rushing yards on 15 carries in the last meeting wasn’t enough. The Bills notch a rare December loss in Foxborough. Patriots, 30-28.Lance Lysowski
This isn't the same Patriots roster that beat the Bills in Orchard Park. New England is down its best defensive tackle, Milton Williams, and offensive tackle, Will Campbell. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye takes too many sacks and it's possible his top weapon, Stefon Diggs, is still playing with a broken finger. The Bills' issues on the road are a concern, but they're going to win this game if they win the turnover battle. Bills, 27-24.Steve Trosky
This is a game that could help determine the Bills' playoffs fate. They have struggled on the road this year, going 3-3 with losses to the Falcons, Dolphins and Texans, the only possible playoff team of the trio. But if you want to win the Super Bowl, you need to play well under pressure. The Bills had a stellar performance in the second half last week against the Bengals and need a full-game performance against the Patriots. A pressure-packed win on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL goes a long way. Josh Allen and company get it done. Bills, 31-27.
Agree with that.
Bill Polar
Well-known member
Balls
Josh, especially in the second half.
offense in general in the second half
Coaching in general in the second half
Tre White's Goalie Academy, no bigger save since Lake Placid
Goats
Everything about the first half
Josh, especially in the second half.
offense in general in the second half
Coaching in general in the second half
Tre White's Goalie Academy, no bigger save since Lake Placid
Goats
Everything about the first half
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FULL BOX SCORE
- REWATCH: Bills-Patriots on NFL+ Premium
- Allen, Bills overcome slow start, dominate Patriots in second half. Buffalo opened Sunday’s AFC East bout with back-to-back three-and-outs and three straight punts. The slow start got the Bills behind the eight-ball, trailing, 21-0, midway through the second quarter. Then Josh Allen heated up. Buffalo scored touchdowns on five consecutive drives, including four straight to open the second half, flipping a big deficit into a lead. Allen ripped rifles all over the Patriots' secondary. The reigning MVP went 19-of-28 passing for 193 yards and three touchdowns. He added 11 rushes for 48 yards. At halftime, Buffalo had just 76 total yards and five first downs. It finished with 349 yards and 22 first downs. This offense can flip the script that fast. When James Cook (107 yards, two TDs) is ripping off positive runs, and Allen avoids turnovers, the Bills offense is a beast to contain. Even if you keep the Bills down for a half, they’re never out of it.
- Patriots collapse on both sides of the ball. Through the first two quarters, Drake Maye looked like an MVP, ripping apart the Buffalo defense with his arm and legs. The second-year quarterback authored three scoring drives on the first four possessions, including two rushing touchdowns. Couple that with TreVeyon Henderson’s 52-yard touchdown dash, and the Pats looked like they were going to run away from their division rival. However, the defense turned into a sieve in the second half. The Pats couldn’t pressure Allen regularly, allowing him to rip apart the secondary, and the run D got leaky. New England’s porous red zone defense reared its head once again, allowing Buffalo TDs on its first five red zone drives. Outside of a Henderson 65-yard touchdown blast, the offense did next to nothing in the second half. New England went three-and-out twice, and Maye threw an arm-punt. The QB threw for 108 yards in the first two quarters, but just 47 in the final two. With a chance for a comeback bid late, the Pats earned just five yards, turning it over on downs on four plays.
- Division race heats up. With a chance to clinch the AFC East Sunday, Mike Vrabel eschewed talk of Sunday being a shirt-and-hats game. His young squad showed why the head coach wasn’t getting ahead of himself. The Pats built a big lead and looked to run away with the division early. However, the faltering on both sides of the ball showed how far Vrabel’s young squad still has to go. Against an MVP player like Allen, it’s never over. On the flip side, the Bills showed why they are never out of it. A defense that couldn’t get a stop early made massive plays late. Joey Bosa continued to play a central role, deflecting a Maye pass late to force a turnover. Falling to 11-3, the Pats still control their path to the division title. Next Gen Stats gives them a probability of winning the AFC East at 63%. The Bills solidified their playoff spot, and have a 37% probability of overtaking the Pats in the division.
Next Gen Stats Insight for Bills-Patriots (via NFL Pro): In the first half, Josh Allen averaged just 2.4 air yards per attempt, failing to complete a pass over 10 yards past the line of scrimmage. Allen significantly increased his aggressiveness in the second half, averaging 9.8 air yards per attempt and completing 4 of 7 downfield passes for 91 yards and a touchdown.
NFL Research: The Patriots had a 124-1 record when leading by 21-plus points at any point in a home game in team history entering Week 15. New England had won 104 straight home games when leading by 21-plus points.