NFL playoff picture: Lions win North, remain in hunt for NFC top seed; Jaguars crumbling
The end of the NFL regular season is fast approaching, but little is settled in the NFL playoff picture.
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The Detroit Lions won a division championship Sunday for the first time since 1993. Dan Campbell’s team claimed the NFC North title in dramatic fashion, hanging on to beat the Minnesota Vikings 30-24.
Winning the division ensures the Lions will play at least one postseason game at Ford Field, and it remains possible for Detroit to secure a bye along with home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs. If the San Francisco 49ers lose to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night, the Lions and Niners will be tied at 11-4 with two games to go.
The 49ers would own the tiebreaker, but if San Francisco were to lose another game and Detroit were to win out, the Lions would take the bye. It’s not a likely scenario, as you’re about to see, but the Lions also just won their first division title in 30 years. Anything is possible.
As for the rest of the NFL, Week 16 saw plenty of movement in the playoff picture. Let’s take a look at where things stand with three games still to come on Monday.
Listed odds to make the playoffs, secure the No. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl are all via The Athletic’s NFL betting model, created by Austin Mock.
AFC playoff picture
| SEED | TEAM | RECORD | WEEK 16 RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| x--1 |  Ravens | 11-3 | (TBD) vs. SF |
| x--2 |  Dolphins | 11-4 | W vs. DAL |
| 3 |  Chiefs | 9-5 | (TBD) vs. LV |
| 4 |  Jaguars | 8-7 | L vs. TB |
| 5 |  Browns | 10-5 | W vs. HOU |
| 6 |  Bills | 9-6 | W vs. LAC |
| 7 |  Colts | 8-7 | L vs. ATL |
x — Clinched playoff berth | z — Clinched division title
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback Lamar Jackson has a single playoff win to his resume, with the Ravens averaging 13 points in his four outings, so that’ll be a question mark in a few weeks. But if Jackson plays well Monday in a victory against the San Francisco 49ers, it should go a long way toward alleviating some of those concerns.Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Miami Dolphins, vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds: To make playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 52.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 14.3 percent
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins just earned their first marquee victory of the season Sunday against the Cowboys, and they got it with a clutch, game-winning drive just before the buzzer. That’s huge, not just for a team angling for seeding but as the Dolphins work to build confidence before the playoffs. Now they’re in a position to take hold of the No. 1 seed if they can win Sunday in Baltimore.Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Buffalo Bills
Odds: To make playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 32 percent | To win Super Bowl: 12.7 percent
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs haven’t beaten a team that currently has a winning record since knocking off the Dolphins in London on Nov. 5. They’ll have a chance to eradicate that issue next Sunday against the Bengals, but would such a victory against a backup quarterback carry much weight? The Chiefs are looking vulnerable as they enter the postseason.Remaining schedule: vs. Las Vegas Raiders, vs. Cincinnati Bengals, at Los Angeles Chargers
Odds: To make playoffs: 99.7 percent | To earn bye: 11.9 percent | To win Super Bowl: 12 percent
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags are reeling with four consecutive losses, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s injuries are mounting by the week. Their offensive issues over the past two weeks can be explained by injuries and Lawrence’s shortage of practice time, but the defense is also leaking by surrendering 29.5 points per game during the skid. Then again, the Bucs scored three touchdowns off turnovers, so it’s become a widespread meltdown.Remaining schedule: vs. Carolina Panthers, at Tennessee Titans
Odds: To make playoffs: 68.5 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.7 percent
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback Joe Flacco, who was sitting on his couch watching football five Sundays ago, has three consecutive 300-yard games for the first time in his career. He hasn’t had a trio of 300-yard games throughout an entire season since 2016. Just a remarkable run.Remaining schedule: vs. New York Jets, at Bengals
Odds: To make playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 3.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 2.6 percent
Buffalo Bills
The Bills started their three-game winning streak in Kansas City, and they’re shaping up to be as dangerous as any team in the AFC. There’s also a possibility we see the next chapter of the Bills-Chiefs mini-rivalry in the wild-card round.Remaining schedule: at New England Patriots, at Dolphins
Odds: To make playoffs: 90.1 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 4.9 percent
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts laid an egg with a 29-10 loss in Atlanta, and now they’re in a four-way tie with the Texans, Steelers and Bengals. The Colts will almost certainly have to win out and hope the tiebreakers work in their favor to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2020.Remaining schedule: vs. Raiders, vs. Houston Texans
Odds: To make playoffs: 66.3 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1 percent
In the hunt
• Houston Texans (8-7)• Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
• Denver Broncos (7-8)
• Las Vegas Raiders (6-8)
Eliminated
• New York Jets (6-9)• Tennessee Titans (5-10)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
• New England Patriots (4-11)
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