NFL Power Rankings Week 18: Browns and Packers move up, plus a lesson from every team
Nine playoff spots have been decided in the NFL. That leaves five more to go heading into the final week of the regular season.
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Like the rest of you, the Power Rankings are trying to make some sense of this NFL year as we head into the final week of the regular season. Nine playoff spots are spoken for — by the Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs and Browns in the AFC and 49ers, Cowboys, Lions, Eagles and Rams in the NFC. That leaves five more to be decided by the results of Week 18.
Before all that, though, we’re going to try to take a lesson from each team’s season, even those seasons that are basically over.
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-3)
(Last week: 1)Sunday: Beat Miami Dolphins 56-19
The lesson: Hire great assistants
John Harbaugh hit back-to-back home runs by hiring defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald in 2022 and offensive coordinator Todd Monken in 2023. As a result, his Ravens clinched the AFC’s top seed by thumping the Dolphins on Sunday. Well, that, and having Lamar Jackson, who was 18-for-21 for 321 yards and five touchdowns against Miami. Jackson’s plus-28.2 passing EPA was the best single-game performance since Joe Burrow against the Ravens in 2021 (plus-34.1), according to NextGenStats, and probably clinched the MVP award.
Up next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
(Last week: 2)Sunday: Beat Washington Commanders 27-10
The lesson: Star power matters
The 49ers have made a quarterback nobody else in the league wanted look like a superstar by surrounding him with stars. On Sunday, San Francisco became the first team in league history to have a running back (Christian McCaffrey), two wide receivers (Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk) and a tight end (George Kittle) all surpass 1,000 yards in a single season. The 49ers also clinched the top seed in the NFC, meaning teams that love playing at home on turf (looking at you Dallas and Detroit) probably will have to win in the elements to get to the Super Bowl.
Up next: vs. Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
3. Cleveland Browns (11-5)
(Last week: 8)Thursday: Beat New York Jets 37-20
The lesson: They didn’t even need Deshaun Watson
The Browns would be one of the feel-good stories in the league this year if not for the fact that they still have a scar from their pursuit of Watson, and it looks like it was a misguided self-inflicted wound. Cleveland has won seven of its last nine games, the last five of which have come with 38-year-old Joe Flacco at quarterback. Flacco has topped 300 yards passing in each of the last four games. He had 309 and three touchdowns against the Jets on Thursday. Why did they do all they did to get Watson again?
Up next: at Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
4. Detroit Lions (11-5)
(Last week: 5)Saturday: Lost to Dallas Cowboys 20-19
The lesson: NFL Draft maxims are flawed
Remember all the grief Detroit got for taking running back Jahmyr Gibbs at No. 12 and inside linebacker Jack Campbell at No. 18? Since Week 14, Gibbs is ninth in the league in rushing (72.25 yards per game). Campbell is second on the team in tackles for the season (77). Tight end Sam LaPorta, the No. 34 pick, hasn’t been bad either, catching 81 passes for 860 yards and nine touchdowns. (Sorry about the ref thing guys. We hope leaving you ahead of the Cowboys in these rankings makes it all better.)
Up next: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
5. Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
(Last week: 6)Saturday: Beat Detroit Lions 20-19
The lesson: Throw the ball to your best players
Dallas has lost only once this season when CeeDee Lamb gets more than 10 targets in a game. Lamb averaged seven targets and 5.7 catches per game through Week 6, and the Cowboys were 4-2. Since then, he has averaged 12.6 targets and 8.8 catches per game, and Dallas is 7-3 in that span. Saturday night, he had a career-high 227 yards on 13 catches against the Lions.
Up next: at Washington Commanders, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
6. Miami Dolphins (11-5)
(Last week: 3)Sunday: Lost to Baltimore Ravens 56-19
The lesson: Speed kills
Six of the top 10 speeds achieved by ball carriers in the NFL this year have been by Dolphins — Tyreek Hill three times, Devone Achane twice and Raheem Mostert once. They have enough speed that they’ve been able to survive injuries to all three of those players at some point this season and still get to 11 wins. It didn’t help much Sunday, but Achane did have 107 yards on just 14 carries against one of the NFL’s best defenses.
Up next: vs. Buffalo Bills, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
7. Buffalo Bills (10-6)
(Last week: 4)Sunday: Beat New England Patriots 27-21
The lesson: Josh Allen is the MVP runner-up
All the hand-wringing after Allen’s four-turnover start to the season is long gone as the second-most unique player in the league behind Lamar Jackson has the Bills sitting at No. 6 in the AFC playoff race after their fourth straight win Sunday, and Buffalo can win the AFC East by beating Miami on Sunday. Despite a pedestrian statistical performance against the Patriots, Allen is seventh in the NFL in passing yards (3,947) and second in scramble EPA per game (3.47), according to TruMedia.
Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
8. Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
(Last week: 9)Sunday: Beat Cincinnati Bengals 25-17
The lesson: There are no sure things
The Chiefs may win another Super Bowl, but it’s going to be an uphill climb. All of Patrick Mahomes’ magic could only generate one touchdown against the Bengals on Sunday. Kansas City got the win thanks to six Harrison Butker field goals, and Rashee Rice, who had five catches for 127 yards, remains the only reliable wide receiver. That’s a problem that is made worse by the fact that Travis Kelce had only three catches for 16 yards against the Bengals and hasn’t topped 45 yards in any of the last three games.
Up next: at Los Angeles Chargers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
9. Los Angeles Rams (9-7)
(Last week: 10)Sunday: Beat New York Giants 26-25
The lesson: Sean McVay shouldn’t do TV
After flirting with retirement and a high-paying television job, McVay has proved he’s still really good at his current high-paying job. Los Angeles has won six of its last seven after holding off the Giants on Sunday, and the Rams will be a tough out in the playoffs as long as Matthew Stafford is playing like this. Stafford had another 317 yards Sunday and is eighth in the league in passing yards per game (264.3).
Up next: at San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
10. Houston Texans (9-7)
(Last week: 13)Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 26-3
The lesson: The right quarterback fixes everything
This was supposed to be a throwaway year in Houston. Instead, rookie C.J. Stroud, the No. 2 pick, is fourth in the NFL with 274.57 passing yards per game, and Houston is in the eighth spot in the AFC, still very much alive in the playoff race. After missing two games because of a concussion, Stroud returned Sunday to complete 24 of 32 passes for 213 yards and a touchdown against the Titans. Defensive end Will Anderson set the Texans’ rookie sack record with his seventh.
Up next: at Indianapolis Colts, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
11. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
(Last week: 7)Sunday: Lost to Arizona Cardinals 35-31
The lesson: Matt Patricia is never the answer
The Eagles have won 11 games this season and still can’t seem to help but panic. Their most recent abrupt move was to elevate Patricia to defensive play caller. On Sunday, the Eagles’ defensive success rate (40.8 percent) was their worst in a game since 2006, according to TruMedia. The Cardinals finished with 449 yards and marched 70 yards on their fourth-quarter, game-winning drive. The Eagles have lost four of their last five. (More lessons learned about former Patriots assistants below.)
Up next: at New York Giants, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
12. Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
(Last week: 14)Sunday: Beat Las Vegas Raiders 23-20
The lesson: Shane Steichen has been as good as any new hire
Steichen didn’t get the headlines among this offseason’s hires, but he’s playing Sunday for a spot in the playoffs despite losing starting quarterback Anthony Richardson for the season and not having Jonathan Taylor for seven games. Indianapolis is 10th in the league in scoring (23.56) with the former Eagles offensive coordinator in charge.
Up next: vs. Houston Texans, Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET
13. Green Bay Packers (8-8)
(Last week: 20)Sunday: Beat Minnesota Vikings 33-10
The lesson: Draft quarterbacks early
Jordan Love is third in the NFL in touchdown passes (30) and ninth in EPA per attempt (.19) in his first season as the full-time starter. That’s after spending two seasons on the bench before replacing Aaron Rodgers, who spent three seasons on the bench before replacing Brett Favre. The Packers look like they’re going to end up having three good to very good, long-term quarterbacks, and there’s no secret to why. They draft the quarterbacks they like when that player is available and are patient enough to let him sit until the right time.
Up next: vs. Chicago Bears, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
(Last week: 15)Sunday: Beat Seattle Seahawks 30-23
The lesson: Mike Tomlin is historically steady
After Sunday’s win, Tomlin is guaranteed his 17th straight season with a .500 or better record. Only Tom Landry (21) and Bill Belichick (19) have more. Steelers fans will point out that Tomlin has missed the playoffs in the last two seasons and in four of the last six. Even after Sunday’s win, in which George Pickens had 131 yards, Pittsburgh is only ninth in the AFC.
Up next: at Baltimore Ravens, Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
(Last week: 11)Sunday: Lost to New Orleans Saints 23-13
The lesson: The right timing and situation matter
Baker Mayfield didn’t play his best game Sunday, finishing 22-for-33 for 309 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, but he’s been a season-saver for Tampa Bay. Playing on a one-year, $4 million contract, Mayfield is tied for fourth in the NFL in touchdown passes (28) and eighth in EPA per attempt (.19). If he can lead the Buccaneers past Bryce Young and the Panthers, he will take Tampa Bay to the playoffs.
Up next: at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
16. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)
(Last week: 12)Sunday: Lost to Pittsburgh Steelers 30-23
The lesson: Pete Carroll can really coach
Seattle still has a 23.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s projections, despite Sunday’s loss. If the Seahawks can get there, it will be Carroll’s 10th trip in his last 13 seasons as head coach. There’s a lot of angst in Seattle right now because the Seahawks gave up 468 yards to Mason Rudolph and the Steelers on Sunday, but Seattle could do a lot worse than being in the mix every year under Carroll.
Up next: at Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET