NHL coaching job-security tiers: Who could go next?
With the preposterous turnover rate among NHL head coaches lately, let's take stock of the stability of every coaching job.
theathletic.com
The turnover rate among NHL head coaches over the last year or so has been preposterous. You’re aware of this. You’ve seen the stats. Let’s recount a few before we start our little exercise, though:
• There have been 19 head-coaching changes since last season, including Rick Bowness’ retirement, and 12 this season alone.
• The last coach to lose his job, Sheldon Keefe, was the fifth-longest tenured in the league. He’d just finished his fifth season with the Leafs.
• Taking Keefe’s place in the top five: Martin St. Louis, who started with Montreal barely two calendar years ago.
On and on. Before someone else gets fired, though, it’s time to take stock of the stability of the 32 NHL head coaching jobs. Each of them fits into one of 12 categories.
Can’t clear out an empty office
Five jobs, for the time being, remain open, from the worst team in the league to failed quasi-contenders.New Jersey Devils
Whoever takes over for last season’s Lindy Ruff/Travis Green combo platter will have a leg up on those guys, if only because Jake Allen will be around to handle business in net. New Jersey’s goalies, up until Allen’s arrival at the deadline, had put up an .883 save percentage. That’s abysmal enough to make a guy like Allen look like Connor Hellebuyck. Better goaltending — and presumably, better defensive structure — will counterbalance rising expectations in Newark.San Jose Sharks
Ironically, the Sharks’ roster seemed disastrous enough to buy David Quinn a third season. Alas, GM Mike Grier made a change. That NHL Draft Lottery win made this job a whole lot better, but it’s still on track to be Macklin Celebrini and not much else. Plus side for Quinn’s replacement: Expectations will still be nearly nonexistent, and churning through another head coach in short order would be a bad look for Grier.Seattle Kraken
A year ago, Dave Hakstol was basking in the glow of a playoff appearance in Seattle’s second season. Now, he’s out of a job. Gotta love shooting percentage regression; the Kraken had the second-highest in 2022-23 and the fourth-lowest in 2023-24. That’s something worth remembering for every coach, including Hakstol’s replacement.
Sheldon Keefe was fired as Maple Leafs coach last Thursday. (Josh Lavallee / NHLI via Getty Images)
Toronto Maple Leafs
That’s right — they fired Keefe. You heard it here first.Winnipeg Jets
Scott Arniel is the leader in the clubhouse to replace the retired Bowness, but as Murat Ates wrote, he’s not going to get the job by default. There’s plenty to like about it; Winnipeg’s ownership has a reputation for prioritizing stability, and the Jets just finished with the fourth-most points in the league. Still, whoever takes over had better like Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele a whole lot.Have they even unpacked?
The ink might not be dry on these contracts, so these guys should feel relatively secure in their positions.Buffalo Sabres, Lindy Ruff
The Sabres hired seven coaches in between Ruff’s stints with the franchise. That alone makes it an understandable remarriage. Still, Ruff was available in the first place because he’d failed to get a win-now team over the hump, which … doesn’t bode particularly well.Ottawa Senators, Travis Green
At least Ruff and the Sabres got some kind of honeymoon period. The overall fan response to Green’s hiring was negative enough to necessitate a “give the guy a chance” column from Thomas Drance, who covered Green as head coach of the Canucks. If Green does enough to take the Sens to their first playoff since 2017, all will be forgiven — but his first few days on the job should be a reminder of just how hair-trigger the entire situation has become in the meantime.St. Louis Blues, Drew Bannister
GM Doug Armstrong did plenty of due diligence before deciding to remove Bannister’s interim tag, and the Blues’ plan for the immediate future — Win now? Retool? Rebuild? — doesn’t seem particularly clear. Not an ideal situation for any coach, which is a shame, because Bannister did a solid enough job after taking over for Craig Berube.Recent champs
Colorado Avalanche, Jared Bednar
We knew Bednar was good at his job, and the work he’s done this season — given how thin the roster was in spots and how many midseason additions were necessary — is a testament to that. Yes, Colorado has high-end players, but so do plenty of other teams. It guarantees nothing.Vegas Golden Knights, Bruce Cassidy
Their Cup defense might’ve ended a little early, but Cassidy is still at the top of the profession. You’ll never learn more from a postgame media session, either.The “Jon Cooper” tier
Tampa Bay Lightning, Jon Cooper
No coach has more juice within the organization or across the league. None.No point in bringing it up
New York Rangers, Peter Laviolette
Anyone who works for James Dolan gets some sort of asterisk next to their name, but Laviolette hasn’t done anything over the last year to actually deserve it. He doesn’t just have Cup bona fides and a whole bunch of wins on his resume — he’s made the Rangers deeper, better and scarier. Sometimes, experience is a good thing. Not every veteran coach deserves the “retread” tag.Dallas Stars, Pete DeBoer
Plenty of the same can be said about DeBoer. He doesn’t have a Cup, but he took over the Stars and immediately made them better. It’s possible to learn from past experience! Who knew?Florida Panthers, Paul Maurice
Skepticism over Maurice’s hiring in South Florida back in 2022 was understandable — the Jets didn’t win anything important in his 10-plus seasons on the job — but the fit has been perfect. He’s turned a firewagon team into one of the league’s most complete.Vancouver Canucks, Rick Tocchet
Are there coaches with more stable ownership situations? Absolutely, but Tocchet (yet again) immediately showed that he was a “retread” with tons to offer. His rep for getting the most out of star players is deserved, and the Canucks look better than they have in a generation.Philadelphia Flyers, John Tortorella
Coming into April, the Flyers seemed like a playoff team, and Tortorella seemed like a Jack Adams finalist. That’s, uh, not how things wound up, but he’s still the face of an organization that’s putting a premium on stability, culture and a whole bunch of other characteristics that are shorthand for job stability.Some point in bringing it up
Carolina Hurricanes, Rod Brind’AmourNo coach is more synonymous with his franchise than Brind’Amour — which is why this bit from Darren Dreger made some waves.
That wasn’t a coincidence. Brind’Amour’s deal is up, the Hurricanes haven’t broken past the Eastern Conference final despite major regular-season success, and owner Tom Dundon is known for playing hardball. Magically, a day later, the vibes shifted.
Will everything work out as intended if the Rangers close out the Hurricanes? It might be time to see.