Passing numbers belie Josh Allen's ascension to top of NFL MVP race
Josh Allen is performing at the height of his QB powers. He’s reading defenses better, getting the ball out of his hands quicker, distributing the ball to a wider variety of weapons more often and avoiding mistakes better than ever.
Josh Allen’s stock is up in the race for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player Award.
Most of Allen’s passing numbers are down.
It is an interesting paradox as the Buffalo Bills enter their bye week on a high from their victory over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Josh Allen throws under pressure against Kansas City during the first quarter of the Bills’ 30-21 victory. Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News
Allen’s spectacular 26-yard touchdown run was the exclamation point on the Bills’ 30-21 win over the Chiefs and on Allen’s season thus far.
It helped Allen move into the favorite’s spot in the MVP race, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, at plus-150 odds (which is an implied probability of 40%). Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson has dropped to No. 2 in the race at 33% odds.
Allen ranks eighth among NFL quarterbacks in passing yards with 2,543, a pace that would give him 3,930 for the season. That would be his lowest yardage total since 2019, his second pro season. Allen passed for 4,306 yards last season.
Yet anyone who has watched the Bills would agree that Allen is at the height of his quarterbacking powers. He’s reading defenses better, getting the ball out of his hands quicker, distributing the ball to a wider variety of weapons more often and avoiding mistakes better than ever.
Allen has thrown just five interceptions and is on a pace for just 7.7 pickoffs, which would be the fewest of his career and a big drop from the previous three seasons (18 last year, 14 in 2022 and 15 in 2021).
“I think you see a guy that’s having a lot of fun playing football with his brothers and playing within the system,” Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. “And he’s not caring about statistics, not caring about anything besides finding ways to win football games.”
Why the drop in Allen’s passing numbers?
A big part is the trend in how defenses are playing both Allen and Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes and the success both teams have had in leaning into a power running game.
The Bills rank 24th in pass attempts per game this season. Allen is on pace for 338 completions for the year. In the previous four years, Allen has averaged 387 completions per year. Mahomes also is on pace for his fewest attempts since 2019 and his lowest yardage total (4,086) since 2019.
“I’m going to do anything and everything that I can do to help this team win football games,” Allen said after the game Sunday. “Sometimes it’s, again, handing it off. Sometimes it’s throwing it. Sometimes it’s running it. So whatever I’m asked to do, I’m just trying to do to the best of my ability.”
A secondary factor in Allen’s yardage drop is the fact the Bills have had three games in which the passing game was almost non-existent. In the Week 2 win at Miami, the Bills had a big lead in the second quarter and essentially ran out the clock the rest of the way. The Week 4 loss at Baltimore was a blowout in the other direction. The Week 5 loss at Houston was an abysmal offensive showing for the Bills, who played without top target Khalil Shakir and before the acquisition of Amari Cooper.
Give Allen just 215 passing yards in those games (his lowest total in the other games), and he’d be on pace for a more impressive 4,250 total.
Brady stressed on Monday that quarterbacking is about leadership, too, and Allen has been brilliant in that department. Brady pointed to the 25-yard sideline pass to Cooper in the second quarter on which Allen stared down a seven-man Chiefs blitz and took a big hit in the chest from linebacker Nick Bolton just as he released the throw.
“You see the hit that he took throwing it up to Coop on the double move,” Brady said. “And you can just see a guy that everything is important to him and all he wants to do is win, and his teammates absolutely love him.”
“To me, that’s everything,” Brady said. “He doesn’t care about the accolades. He doesn’t care about the hype. He just wants to win football games, and I believe our organization, our team, feeds off of him. When he’s doing those type of things, you can see how much the guys love him. You see when he scores touchdowns, how they celebrate with him. You can see when he’s on the ground, how fast everybody is to help him up. They’re not just doing that because it’s the quarterback. It doesn’t happen all the way across the NFL. But it’s the genuine love and the trust and the care they have for him. And it’s a lot of fun to watch.”
A big factor to remember in the voting for MVP is the cliché: “To the victor goes the spoils.”
The Bills are 9-2, and they just beat the undefeated Chiefs. They’re looking great, while Baltimore (7-4) has lost two of its last four.
Last year, Allen posted better statistics than the Ravens’ Jackson. Allen combined for 44 touchdowns passing and rushing, while passing for 4,306 yards in 2023. Jackson combined for 29 TDs and had 3,678 passing yards.
But Jackson’s Ravens went 13-3 and earned the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Allen was off the MVP radar with the Bills at 6-6 entering their bye last year. Buffalo finished 11-6 and had won the No. 2 seed. Jackson was the runaway MVP winner