Bills notebook: Lineup shakeups loom, Shakir’s Week 11 status, Mecole Hardman outlook
The Bills will have their hands full against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are coming off a loss and have yet to lose back-to-back games.
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Josh Allen and the Bills will look to bounce back in a Week 11 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a team also looking to avenge a loss last week.
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It’s been a long six days in Buffalo Bills land. Coming off the high of defeating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9, the Bills served up a clunker in their Week 10 blowout loss against the Miami Dolphins.
It’s led to a lot of big-picture questions being asked about the team, and some very sharp criticism about how the first nine games have gone. But quarterback Josh Allen and company know it doesn’t do them any good to dwell on what could have been. Allen said he and the team quickly flushed the Dolphins game once the practice week began.
“Let’s wash it. Let’s get back on track,” Allen said of the team’s outlook for the week.
They’ll have their hands full against a 6-3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is coming off a loss and has yet to lose back-to-back games this season. As the matchup approaches, here’s our Week 11 Bills notebook.
The vibe in Orchard Park is that some lineup shakeups are coming
After what will likely be their worst loss of 2025, which occurred last weekend in Miami, the Bills enter the second half of the season knowing things need to change, most specifically with what they’ve done on offense. It’s not a state of panic, because they still have three distinct things working for them — a great offensive line, a great running back and the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player at quarterback. There is, however, a clear tonality throughout the building that they know they can’t continue doing the same things and expect different results.It’s the reason they attempted to add a wide receiver at the trade deadline, and why they brought in another speed element to the practice squad in Mecole Hardman. But Hardman isn’t going to impact their offense to a grand degree this week. Even still, just with the flow at practice, it certainly appeared as though some personnel changes are on the way.
Above all else, as one might assume, it circles around the receiver position. And the most significant change could come in the form of Gabe Davis making his 2025 debut Sunday. Although it isn’t a guarantee, Davis will have gone through three weeks of practice since his return, and that’s generally a good amount of ramp-up time for any player coming back from a long-term injury.
Davis looked quite spry throughout the practice week and didn’t appear to be favoring his injury. His energy throughout the practices was evident as well, and that’s another piece of the puzzle the Bills have been searching for on offense. There has been increasing buzz about Davis inside the building, as well.
As we pointed out earlier in the week, the two elements the downfield passing attack lacks are trust from Josh Allen and verticality. Davis, who is still only 26, had an average depth of target of 15.4 yards and 15.1 yards in his final two seasons in Buffalo in 2022 and 2023. Allen also loves Davis and trusts him implicitly, having long been a proponent of the receiver.
They also trust him as a blocker, further enhancing the offense’s versatility with the personnel on the field rather than giving away a run play by subbing in better blocking receivers. They could always hold off another week with Davis, but they need answers right now, and they know what they have in him. Davis, an X receiver, could help jumpstart Keon Coleman in a different role, too, something we’ll get to shortly.
On top of that, Joshua Palmer looks poised to return to the lineup for the first time since suffering an injury against the Falcons in Week 6. Palmer will likely return immediately to a lot of snaps from the Z receiver position, especially with how little production the Bills had been getting from it in his absence. Palmer’s separation ability against man coverage can certainly give the offense an entirely different dynamic, and in the last game we saw him, he delivered a deep shot against the Falcons on the first play of the game.
Should Davis play, we could see the Bills scale back on the roles of some other receivers. Tyrell Shavers, who has played 80 snaps over the last few games since Palmer suffered his injury, has only two targets in three games and a target rate of 5.1 percent.
Curtis Samuel has played 70 snaps over the last three games, has also only earned two targets and has a target rate of 4.9 percent. While Shavers still might be active for special teams reasons, it wouldn’t be a shock to see his offensive role scaled back. Samuel could be in jeopardy of being a healthy scratch, because they could fill his role with Palmer and others.
No matter what, the Bills need to figure things out, and anytime we’ve seen a McDermott-led team come to a crossroads like this one, there have usually been changes. The passing offense is likely target number one.
Is Shakir at risk of missing the game?
Even though the Bills are hoping to generate some life into their passing attack, they already know they won’t have their most productive tight end, as Dalton Kincaid is week-to-week with a hamstring injury. They might have to be without their most productive wide receiver, too. Khalil Shakir is on the injury report with not one, but two injury distinctions. Shakir is dealing with ankle and ribs injuries. Not only that, Shakir was wearing a red non-contact jersey on Wednesday and Thursday.Shakir, who was listed as a “limited” participant on Wednesday, appeared to be extremely limited compared to the rest of the receivers as they went through drills. The same occurred during Thursday’s practice, too. He was able to do a little bit more, but still had to sit out of some individual drills. The Bills could just be limiting his reps in the hope of having him fresh for the game, but it might be in their best interest to give him the week off to recuperate for the long haul, especially with a short week and a Thursday night game in Week 12.
If Shakir does not play, what would the Bills do? I think it gives them a chance to open things up a bit. If the Bills activate Davis, they have a player who can take several snaps at X receiver, which Coleman has mostly manned. Without Shakir, the Bills have the opportunity to use Coleman inside more often — if they would like to, at least. Using him at slot receiver would give him some easier short-area targets to get him going a bit more and give him more opportunity for yards after the catch.
There is potential, if Shakir sits, for the Bills to have an on-field trio of Palmer, Davis and Coleman in the slot in 11 personnel. It would also open things up for one of Curtis Samuel or Elijah Moore to get additional time on the field at slot receiver, with the other possibly being a healthy scratch.
Moore looks on film like the better option and has earned targets at a far higher rate than Samuel this season. Moore’s most natural position in the Bills’ offense is at slot receiver. However, if the Bills don’t want to dress six receivers in favor of five defensive tackles, the pair are at risk of being a healthy scratch.
In that case, Shavers — with his special teams role — could serve as a backup in the slot when needed as he’s shown he can do throughout his time with the Bills. Their newest receiver, Hardman, could be an option in the slot, too. So while it might hurt not to have Shakir if he can’t play, there are at least some replacement options that give the Bills a different feel than what they’ve used this year.
Shakir is dealing with ankle and rib injuries, didn’t practice with contact Wednesday or Thursday and could miss Sunday’s game.Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images
Why the winds of change might also extend to CB
The other potential spot we could see a shift this week is at cornerback. Although Maxwell Hairston had some struggles against Jaylen Waddle last weekend, there is a clear talent upgrade when Hairston is on the field ahead of Tre’Davious White. The Bills were without Christian Benford against the Dolphins, and sneakily, the team may have already told us during the Miami game where the cornerback position is heading. In that contest, the Bills had Hairston travel with Waddle almost the entire game — regardless of which side Waddle was on.The Dolphins had 41 snaps in which Waddle, Hairston and White were on the field. Hairston lined up on the same side as Waddle’s pre-snap alignment on 40 of those 41 snaps. On the only instance that Waddle was on White’s side, Waddle motioned over to Hairston’s side, so it’s quite possible the Bills recognized that pre-snap movement was coming.
This is a clear differentiator from when the Bills played the Panthers, as when the duo of Hairston and White were on the field in garbage time, White stayed on the left side with Hairston on the right for all their snaps together. And in that matchup, the Panthers also had a clear No. 1 target in Tetairoa McMillan on the field for most of those snaps.
What does this mean? Given all the information — namely, that the Bills want their best starters on the field and that Hairston has had a few weeks to get his feet wet — there is an increasing chance that the Bills have already pushed Hairston ahead of White for the full-time role. At this point, Benford is trending in the right direction to return for the Buccaneers game. If he does, there is a definitive possibility that what the Bills hope will be their long-term cornerback pairing, Benford and Hairston, will be the full-time tandem Sunday.
Mecole Hardman has arrived, what is his full outlook?
After striking out in trying to add a wide receiver at the trade deadline, with an emphasis on speed, the Bills immediately turned their attention to the free-agent market. Although the team didn’t officially sign Hardman, the former Chiefs wide receiver, to the practice squad until practice began this week, he said he found out he’d be coming to Buffalo on the Friday before the Dolphins game. That means the Bills were looking to make some changes even before they lost to the struggling Dolphins.It would not at all be surprising if Hardman, who ran a 4.33 40-yard dash in his draft year, is active as early as this week against the Buccaneers with one primary function in mind — the return game. The Bills haven’t gotten much out of the return game this season, and clearly have a lack of trust in return specialist Brandon Codrington, who has been a healthy scratch for five of the team’s last six games despite remaining on the active roster. Along with that, Codrington doesn’t give them any other roster function, whereas someone like Hardman could help the Bills on offense increasingly as they go.
Sprinkle Shakir’s injury and potential to miss the game on top, as Shakir has served as the team’s punt returner, and there is a distinct chance Hardman could be elevated and on the field just a few days after his arrival. Although his role on offense would be muted, I wouldn’t rule out having him see a handful of snaps in the slot or at Z receiver, even if he’s not targeted, to help enhance the downfield element of the Bills offense. The team knows it’s a necessity.
Projected Bills roster moves: Activate T.J. Sanders from Injured Reserve, sign WR Gabe Davis to the 53-man roster, place DT Phidarian Mathis on IR
Bills projected practice squad elevations: WR Mecole Hardman, TE Keleki Latu
Bills projected inactives: WR Curtis Samuel, WR Elijah Moore, TE Dalton Kincaid, OT Chase Lundt, DT Jordan Phillips, CB Ja’Marcus Ingram, KR/PR Brandon Codrington
(**Subject to change following Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 31, Buccaneers 20
With several personnel changes potentially on the way, the Bills are desperate to find the energy on offense they lacked last week against Miami. Although the Buccaneers are a good team with some nice pieces on both sides of the ball, it’s setting up for a bounce-back game for the Bills. They’re at home, a bit ticked off about how last week went and will look to get their season back on track.Ultimately, the Bills will have some opportunities to get their passing game going in unison with some rushing attempts outside of the guards, where Tampa Bay was a bit vulnerable last week. On defense, the Bills are likely to get several meaningful players back this week and have been playing pretty well of late. The Buccaneers will get some points behind Baker Mayfield’s arm, but the Bills have the right lineup this week to come away with a win at home.