At 7-2, the Bills have remained one of the best teams in the NFL and looked primed to be a Super Bowl contender in 2024. Head coach Sean McDermott is likely to make the playoffs for the seventh time in eight years — including six in a row.
With all their individual and team goals in front of them as attainable, how will the rest of the year unfold?
Here are our midseason Bills predictions heading into the final eight games of 2024.
Josh Allen, at long last, wins his first MVP
I’ve gone back and forth about this, with Lamar Jackson being the reason for the most hesitation. Jackson and the Ravens have been excellent on offense all year, though their offensive environment has also been one of the most inviting to success in the NFL. Allen’s statistics aren’t nearly as gaudy as they have been in past years, but he’s had one of the best seasons of his career because he’s been heady, efficient, patient and still able to deliver a huge play even when a play looks dead. For him to deal with a pass-catcher group without an identifiable top target for half of the year while limiting his turnovers and pushing the Bills to one of the best records in the NFL is mightily impressive. On top of that, there have only been five players that have won back-to-back MVP awards in NFL history. This is an ode to Allen’s play and to going with the odds that there will be a different MVP this year.Khalil Shakir collects his first career 1,000-yard season
After an excellent end to the 2023 season, Shakir has picked up where he left off as the team’s primary slot receiver. Most importantly, he’s become one of Allen’s most trusted assets. He is a calming force and as steady as they come, roping in almost every pass thrown his way. On top of that, his yards-after-catch ability has been outstanding all year. He possesses great contact balance and provides a good shake on defenders in the open field before contact. Shakir’s role is secure, and as long as he stays healthy, he’s got a legitimate chance to lead the Bills in receiving. Shakir is on a pace for 889 yards, but importantly, he did not play against the Texans due to injury and had his role cut by more than half in his first game back against the Jets. Over those seven games with a full-time role, Shakir averaged 64.6 yards, which puts him on a more realistic pace to gain 988 yards this year. Given his importance to the offense and that he’ll likely be on the field more in some close games, I’ll take him to get those extra 12 yards.Greg Rousseau hits 10 sacks for the first time
The Bills identify as a defense that wants to provide pass rush pressure with their front four, and the numbers back that up. The Bills have blitzed on only 11.1 percent of their plays, the third-lowest rate in the NFL through Week 9, according to TruMedia. That ramps up the importance of a player like defensive end Greg Rousseau, though his play over the last three games has shown a player that has taken a step forward. Rousseau has 4.5 sacks on the year, though that total does not accurately portray how he’s played this season. If he had more help from his pass-rushing teammates, that would bring on more opportunity for statistics, and with defensive tackle Ed Oliver playing better of late, that will go a long way. Eventually, if Rousseau keeps playing at his current level, he’ll pop for some big plays and sacks over the final eight games to get him to double digits for the first time.Matt Milano doesn’t start ramping up until after the bye week
The Bills have gotten to a good enough place with their star linebacker to acknowledge that they expect him to return this season. The key question, though, is when. At this point, it would make little sense from a roster-construction perspective to start his 21-day practice window before their bye in Week 12. The Bills usually take the entire week off to recharge their batteries for the stretch run, which would effectively cancel out one-third of that window. The Bills do like to take things slowly with players coming off a long-term injury, so there may be an overall emphasis on maximizing that full 21-day window before creating a roster spot. It would make the most sense for the Bills to begin that process in Week 13 or later. The team’s hope then would be for Milano to get some game action and get close to a full-time role in a regular season setting before heading to the playoffs.
Micah Hyde and the Bills have left the door open for a reunion. (Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images)
Micah Hyde eventually returns for one more run at a Super Bowl
The longtime Bills safety’s presence has been a cloud hovering over the Bills since July. One of the weakest starting positions remains at safety, and several signs point to an eventual return. Whenever the Bills have been asked about Hyde possibly returning, they have never run from the idea or sidestepped the question while also saying that Hyde hasn’t shut the door on a return, either. He has yet to announce his retirement. He’s known as an extremely competitive person, meaning he likely would have done so if there wasn’t a part of him looking to return. Hyde has always wanted to win a Super Bowl while in Buffalo, and with the Bills as good as they are this season, he might see an opportunity for one last run at it. Plus, if you’re looking for some further anecdotal signs, the Bills have not issued Hyde’s No. 23 jersey at any point this year, nor have they given his longtime locker to a different player this season. Don’t be surprised if Hyde rejoins the team sometime in late November to December.Bills sew up the AFC East with at least three games to play
The Bills have a stronghold on the division, up four games with only eight more to play. Barring a complete collapse, it’s likely not a matter of if, but when they clinch the division well before the end of the regular season. The Bills’ schedule gets a little daunting after this weekend, with games against the Chiefs, 49ers, the much-improved Rams and Lions in a row. Odds are that they’ll drop a game or more at some point over that stretch, but it shouldn’t be enough to keep the Bills from clinching the division at least ahead of the Week 16 game against the Patriots, if not sooner.From there, it will be a decision from the team about how much they value seeding in the AFC. They’ll be guaranteed at least one home game in the Wild Card round. If there is any chance that the Bills could get the top seed and earn a bye, they’ll likely continue to push for that through the end of the year. However, if they lose to the Chiefs in Week 11, that may impact their late-year decision. If that loss does happen, or if they’re too far out of it by Week 17 or 18, they’ll need to weigh keeping their core starters healthy for a playoff run versus trying to earn a second playoff home game. In the past, they have gone for a higher seed. We could see if previous playoff losses will change their minds at all.
