The hype surrounding the Buffalo Sabres last summer was filled with so much fervor that it led to much internal doubt regarding our own forecast. Turns out 87 points was pretty on the money for yet another disappointing season in Buffalo.
Will things be different this season? Maybe.
On paper, the Sabres look roughly on par with where they were to start last season — right outside the playoff mix. But they could have a trick up their sleeve to flip the script: A new-old coach who has the ability to reignite the team’s lost identity.
The projection
Coaching is the one major hurdle when it comes to any of these projections — it’s not something we can really account for. For teams with a new coach, that can be a very big deal as it leads to more volatility in their forecast.
For the Sabres specifically, that’s important to keep in mind. Their 89-point forecast isn’t far off from where they ended last season, but there is room for more optimism now that offensive guru Lindy Ruff is back behind the bench. This Buffalo team has been constructed with an attacking mindset and one of the reasons they struggled to live up to the hype last year was that ethos being neutered. With Ruff leading the way, the Sabres should be back to playing to their strengths.
A slew of up-and-coming players with the potential to break out should only add to that optimism, but if we all learned anything from last year it’s that caution does need to be exercised. There’s a reason the Sabres still sit behind nine other teams in the East — they still have a lot to prove going into 2024-25.
The big question
Can Lindy Ruff reignite Buffalo’s offense?Ahead of last season, the Sabres’ path to true improvement seemed simple enough: Improve in their own zone while keeping sight of what made them interesting in the first place. Buffalo was an offensive wagon in 2022-23, after all, and plenty of its most important players didn’t seem to be all that close to their ceiling.
“Simple” and “easy” aren’t necessarily synonyms, though. It’s one thing to say “just be a little better defensively” and another to put it into practice, and the Sabres — if they didn’t know it already — learned that the hard way. Their Net Rating actually improved, from minus-8 to minus-6, but it took going from one of the better offensive teams in the league with a plus-23 Offensive Rating in 2022-23 to a literal zero in that stat.
No player embodied that more than Tage Thompson, whose five-on-five production dropped from 3.09 points per 60 to 1.82. Another way to put it: In 2022-23, he was tied with David Pastrnak in that stat for fifth in the league. In 2023-24, he was tied with Martin Pospisil for 177th. Part of that dip was likely due to a November wrist injury — but some of it, no doubt, had to do with a shift in priorities. Buffalo allowed more than half an expected goal less per 60 with Thompson on the ice (3.3 to 2.78) and about four fewer shots (34.2-38.3), but the pendulum swung too far in the other direction; his effectiveness as a play driver, both individually and as a creator for his teammates, dropped dramatically. The mix changed, in other words, but it didn’t improve — and when you have a 6-foot-7 unicorn on your roster, you should probably play to his strengths.
“If you’re overly concerned about what Thompson’s doing in his own end, and that means he’s a 50-to-60 point guy, I don’t think the juice is worth the squeeze,” one coach said during our Player Tiers reporting. “The stuff he can do on the ice at that size, there’s still no comparable. I would maximize offense. For some guys, it’s counterproductive. You just end up removing puck touches.”
It wasn’t just Thompson, either. Alex Tuch’s points per 60 went from 3.34 to 2.42; Dylan Cozens from 3.05 to 2.07; Rasmus Dahlin from 2.18 to 1.72. It’s tough to survive across-the-board, year-over-year declines from your best players, and Don Granato paid the price. The irony of the situation: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen gave the Sabres their best season from a goaltender, in terms of goals saved above average, since Ryan Miller in 2009-10.
Enter Ruff, who’s returning to the organization after more than 10 years away. He was fired about a month into the 2013 season, his 15th with the organization. Since then, the Sabres have gone through six coaches. Ruff is still the last to lead them to the playoffs, in 2010-11. While he was gone, he won nearly 300 games with the Dallas Stars and New Jersey Devils and continued to build on his resume as a coach capable of helping young players take the next step. He made a Cup Final with Dallas and, ahead of last season’s regression, had the Devils pointed in the right direction.
Over four seasons with the Stars, his teams scored the third-most goals in the NHL. When his Devils were at their best, they generated tons of chances and capitalized on enough of them to win games — and the players certainly seemed to love him.
“I actually laugh at some of my coaching style because a lot of things have changed,” Ruff said at his re-introductory news conference. “I won’t go into a lot of detail, but I’m a lot better coach now than I was when I left.”
That’s not to say the decision doesn’t carry risk; Ruff, after all, was fired 61 games into last season and had his share of rough patches ahead of the 2023 playoff run, too. His system calls for, among other things, defensemen who are capable of joining the attack and making the right decisions with the puck, which can lead to high-event hockey at inopportune times. Ultimately, though, it’s easy to see Buffalo’s logic. Jack Hughes grew into an MVP-caliber player under Ruff; Nico Hischier became a franchise-tier center; Jesper Bratt, on his own merit, is an All-Star — and they made those leaps, primarily, by scoring goals. Thompson, Cozens, Tuch, Jack Quinn and JJ Peterka should all be capable of doing the same.
The wild card
Is Owen Power ready to live up to his pedigree?Any discussion about Power should start with his age. He won’t turn 22 until Nov. 22, and he’s already entering his third full NHL season. A defenseman that young with that much experience and a relatively high amount of success is rare. His maturation into a high-end NHL player still seems like a matter of “when,” not “if.”
It’s worth noting, though, that Year 2 for Power looked similar to Year 1. His production was basically unchanged (1.12 to 1.14 points 60), and there were still a fair amount of defensive lapses. Most jarring were his numbers with Henri Jokiharju — when they were on the ice together, Buffalo controlled less than 40 percent of the expected goals. Not good.
Still, Power’s puck skills are remarkable, and he did a better job at using them to flip the ice in Year 2. His work on retrieving the puck and exiting his zone with control, according to Corey Sznjader’s tracking data, was elite. He improved more in that area than any other. For Sabres fans, it’s tough to imagine a more positive sign. He’ll have a lot on his offensive plate in Ruff’s system, and he certainly seems like a player who can handle it.
He starts the season with a plus-2 projected Net Rating, thanks in part to his age and two-year record of solid offensive impact. That’d make him a solid No. 2 defenseman. He’s certainly capable of more, though; if the Sabres make a jump this season, you can bet he’ll have made one, too.
The strengths
The Sabres have a lot of raw talent and strengths; it’s just a matter of whether or not they can maximize them, unlike last season.That starts with Thompson, who went from being one of the most electrifying players in the league to somewhat of a dud last season with major drops in production and chance creation. He still showed glimpses of that player who took the league by storm in 2022-23, but those glimpses were too few and far between. To his credit, he really was a changed man defensively, it just came at a grave cost to his offense.
At his best, Thompson can drive play and score highlight reels in all sorts of ways. He’s got deft hands, is one of the best finishers in the league and has an especially lethal one-timer on the power play. That latter element of his game wasn’t as visible last season, leading to a massive year-over-year drop with the man advantage — from seventh to 29th. With better health for Thompson and new voices running the power play, a return to form is one of the team’s top priorities.
Below Thompson at 2C, Cozens’ offense also wilted last year. Almost everything went wrong at five-on-five. His puck-moving wasn’t as effective and he shot the puck less. If he can get back on track from where he left off in 2022-23, the Sabres top-six should have a lot more jump, which should elevate their wingers. Offensively, Cozens should be more than capable as the team’s second-in-command.
The top-six winger to watch is Peterka, who was one of the most consistent Sabres last season. Buffalo created more quality offense with Peterka on the ice last season relative to the rest of the team and scored 0.53 more goals per 60. His forechecking stood out, and he showed an innate ability to generate scoring chances and capitalize on them. Quinn falls on the same wavelength and having him for a full season should make a big difference — the Sabres are a much more potent offensive team with Quinn in the lineup. Zach Benson rounds out the group of up-and-coming wingers in the top six. The short king provided a spark last season with his tenacity, which could get amplified with more support around him.
If the Sabres can see progression from their young guns and rebounds from their veterans, they should be able to push their Offensive Rating back into the positives.
The same goes for their blue line. That starts with Dahlin, a cornerstone of this era of Sabres hockey. He brings an element of versatility to a heavy left-handed blue line. The fact he can play the right side with ease gives the coaches options, which could mean a start with Power — two towering No. 1 picks who have the potential to form one of the league’s most electric pairs. In 490 minutes over the last two seasons, the duo has been on the ice for 3.91 goals per 60.
Dahlin has proven that he has what it takes to be a true No. 1, but like a lot of the mainstay forwards, he has to pick up the pace after last year’s fall from grace. While Dahlin did lead the Sabres in Net Rating last season at plus-11.4, that was a sizable step back from his plus-18.8 in 2022-23. That drop in value led to Dahlin being knocked down in this year’s Player Tiers project, though there was still praise for his defensive growth in recent seasons.
Team defense is still a thorny issue in general for the Sabres, but along with Dahlin, the team still has Mattias Samuelsson — a capable shutdown No. 4 who can handle tough minutes. Up front, Ryan McLeod joins the fold and should offer strong support on that front, too. He was a steady 3C in Edmonton who helped greatly suppress scoring chances and goals against. His plus-3 Defensive Rating is one of the best marks in the league and could give the Sabres a true checking line. That should take some pressure off the offensive-minded top six. Other additions — namely Jason Zucker and Nicolas Aube-Kubel — give the team a bit more depth compared to last season, too.
Goaltending could be a strength, but for now, the Sabres only grade out as average there. Luukkonen was terrific last season with 35 quality starts, but his poor track record before that has led to a significantly more conservative valuation than what he showed last season. He’ll have to prove it again.
Even if he doesn’t, though, the Sabres are set up well with Devon Levi behind him, Buffalo’s goalie of the future. He benefited from some seasoning in the AHL last year and finished the season strong with three excellent showings with the NHL club. If he can play in at least a 1B capacity, the Sabres should at least have one aspect of their game solidified.
The weaknesses
The problem with so many of the Sabres’ strengths is how dependent they are on something changing from last year. So many key players have to rebound from last year or take major steps forward in their progression. The coaching has to bring better vibes and find the right tactics to maximize this group after management opted against making any major changes to the roster. Jeff Skinner was bought out, but with no one notable brought in to replace his scoring, improvement will have to come from within.The model weighs data from the last three years for skaters, meaning the heights some of these players reached in 2022-23 are being accounted for. Still, this team’s Offensive Rating falls right at average.
Some of the offensive weaknesses are due to the bottom-six choices made in the offseason. The fourth line could be a black hole between Beck Malenstyn, Peyton Krebs and Aube-Kubel (or Sam Lafferty) — and there isn’t a single player in the positives on the third line either. That’s true for a lot of teams, sure, but could be particularly troubling for Buffalo whose Offensive Rating from the bottom six comes out to minus-35 — 26th in the league.
Jordan Greenway proved to be a scrappy middle-sixer in Minnesota. Alongside Joel Eriksson Ek and Marcus Foligno, he was a key part of the GREEF line that made life hard for defenders and goaltenders. They were a tenacious trio that forechecked hard and battled in the net-front area. But that’s not the version of Greenway the Sabres have experienced yet. His scoring was down relative to those peak years in Minnesota. And over the last couple of seasons, his shot and scoring chance creation has trailed off. While he was still a plus relative to his teammates defensively, Greenway didn’t help break out of his own zone as much as in seasons past, either.
The offensive flaws at the bottom of the lineup stress just how important it is that the top players return to form. Thompson and Cozens both only look average relative to the other top two centers, and while Tuch is still the team’s best winger, he’s below average relative to other No. 1 wingers around the league.
On the back end, the team’s depth is a concern — especially if the Sabres opt to stack their top pair. Half the defense comes in well below what other teams can offer in those roles and that puts added stress on the team’s goaltending. Connor Clifton is a less-than-inspiring third-pair defender and it doesn’t help that Jokiharju looks similarly weak and is slated to play in the top four. The team’s four best defenders all being left-handed could become a big issue if that deployment continues this season.
The bigger issue might be if Bowen Byram can’t figure things out without the puck. He made an instant impact in Buffalo with his scoring, but for as much offense as he helped create, the team bled quality chances and goals against. It’s possible Byram just needs more time to adjust to his new surroundings and an expanded role. But if things don’t change this season and he continues to struggle in the top four, his ceiling will look much more limited.
If a lot of players hit their ceilings, this Sabres team can be very good as soon as this year. For now, though, there are still too many question marks facing too many players who simply weren’t good enough last season. Modest growth won’t be enough — to live up to the hype, the Sabres will need a few players to take a bigger leap.