Five big questions facing Sabres during their push for the playoffs and beyond
The Sabres' final eight games of the regular season will determine playoff seeding, matchups and home-ice advantage.
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The Sabres' final eight games of the regular season will be a chance for Lindy Ruff and his coaching staff
to get some answers to questions that could define the team's playoff run. Charles LeClaire / Imagn Images
The Buffalo Sabres are one win away from hitting the 100-point mark for the first time since the 2009-10 season. Their league-record 14-season playoff drought will soon be a thing of the past.
But the way the Sabres have played over the past three months has changed expectations internally and externally. Ending the playoff drought looked like a monumental task when the team was last in the Eastern Conference in December. And though that will still be an accomplishment worth celebrating when the time comes, this team has bigger goals and the talent to achieve them.
The final eight games of the regular season will determine seeding, matchups and home-ice advantage. They will also be a chance for Lindy Ruff and his coaching staff to start to get some answers to questions that could define the team’s playoff run. Here are a few we’re thinking about in the last two weeks of the season.
Will the goaltending hold up?
The Sabres have the best save percentage in the NHL since Dec. 9, when they began this turnaround. Goaltending is a major reason this team went from last place to being in the race for the top seed in the conference. Only four teams in the NHL have a better goals saved above expected than the Sabres this season, according to MoneyPuck.It’s tough to figure out how to divvy up the credit for the Sabres’ success this season, but no matter how you look at it, the goalies deserve a significant share. And that makes it even more important for the goalies to sustain a high level of play into the playoffs.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has had a save percentage below .900 in nine games this season. The Sabres are 1-6-2 in those games. In games when Luukkonen has a .900 save percentage or better, the Sabres are 17-3. Lately, he looks like he could earn the job as Buffalo’s Game 1 starter in the postseason. But earlier in the season, Alex Lyon was the team’s most valuable player for stretches. Ruff has said he feels like he has two No. 1 goalies. That’s been true for most of the season. And the Sabres seem like a team that will go as far as these goalies can take them.
What will the Sabres get out of their middle six centers?
Lately, Josh Norris and Ryan McLeod haven’t been giving the Sabres a whole lot in terms of offensive production. In 14 games in March, Norris and McLeod have combined for three goals and 13 points. McLeod has one goal and 10 shots on net during that stretch. Both players have been a net positive defensively, but when the playoffs start, the Sabres will need more production from two players who are among the top four forwards on the team in terms of ice time this month. Ruff expressed recently that he wants to see both players get to the front of the net more and be willing to earn the dirty goals. Norris and McLeod have been deferring to the perimeter of the ice in the offensive zone lately, and that’s not where goals are scored in the postseason.What will Jack Quinn give the Sabres in the playoffs?
Quinn has taken a nice step forward for the Sabres down the stretch. In March, Quinn is tied for the team lead in shots on goal, second on the team in individual scoring chances and tied for second in goals. He already has career highs with 17 goals and 30 assists this season. And he quietly has more points than JJ Peterka, whom the Sabres traded in the offseason.As Quinn showed in the shootout against the Seattle Kraken, he relishes the chance to make a difference with the puck on his stick. In terms of shooting talent, he’s one of the Sabres’ best forwards. But games like the Tampa Bay Lightning game also show he can struggle when the physicality of a game hits the next level. Given how often he gets himself into scoring position, Quinn could be a difference-maker in the playoffs if he’s willing to pay the extra price to get to those areas against the toughest opponents.
Can Peyton Krebs hold up on the top line?
Krebs has become a workhorse for the Sabres, ranking second on the team in five-on-five ice time in March. He’s become a bit of a fixture on Buffalo’s top line playing next to Tage Thompson. At five-on-five, Thompson has a 57 percent goals-for percentage playing with Krebs and a 46 percent goals-for percentage when he’s not playing with Krebs. Krebs has become one of Ruff’s most trusted players.“I think the top lines have that workaholic on it,” Ruff said. “There aren’t many good scoring lines that don’t have a guy like that. There’s a guy that drives it with speed, intensity, and then your goal scorers pick up the loose change from the shrapnel that this guy has created out on the ice.”
Ruff acknowledged that sometimes Krebs works so hard at practice that he annoys his teammates with his energy level. He’s clearly a spark plug in the regular season. The question is whether he can elevate in the playoffs when other teams are going to be focused on that top line with Thompson and Alex Tuch. With extra attention on the big scorers, Krebs could get some opportunities. He cashed in on one with a tying goal against the Kraken on Saturday. But we’ve also seen Ruff move him all over the lineup, so whether he sticks with Thompson and Tuch is also a question.
What will the Sabres do on defense?
We know the Sabres are going to lean on their top four defensemen for big minutes. Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson, Bowen Byram and Owen Power have been a major reason for Buffalo’s success this season. But the third pair has been a work in progress. The Sabres were at their best this season when they had Zach Metsa and Michael Kesselring in those spots, rotating in with the top four defensemen to give them a breather. They didn’t operate as a pair very often, and their ice time was limited, but that’s part of why it has worked. Since acquiring Logan Stanley at the deadline, he’s been a regular player. The Sabres have tried a bunch of combinations on the third pair and have had mixed results. But they have been able to take some of the minutes away from the top four and keep them fresh for the playoffs.When the postseason starts, Ruff will have some decisions to make. Stanley’s game has been steadier lately, but he has also taken a lot of penalties. The fact that he’s left-handed and plays on the penalty kill gives him the inside track to being in the playoff lineup. But who will Ruff choose as the sixth defenseman for that first playoff game? Metsa has been rock solid when he plays, but Ruff hasn’t given him minutes on the penalty kill. Conor Timmins is healthy again and plays a ton of minutes on the PK. Kesselring, meanwhile, hasn’t played since March 10, and it’s unclear what he needs to do to get a chance to earn his spot back. The Sabres also have Luke Schenn, who didn’t look great in the few games he played but has experience in the postseason, something most of Buffalo’s blue line lacks.
Ultimately, the Sabres are fortunate to have depth because when injuries happen, they will have options. But having nine NHL defensemen creates a difficult decision for Ruff when it comes to putting together the playoff lineup.