Mid-off in the Atlantic: Why the Sabres, Red Wings and Senators haven’t taken the next step
These three Atlantic Division teams just keep spinning their wheels instead of moving forward.
www.nytimes.com
With a 3-1 lead over the Toronto Maple Leafs on Sunday, the Buffalo Sabres were less than a period and a half away from ending a nine-game losing skid. And then, in just 1:10 of game action, John Tavares scored two goals to tie the game.
A 5-3 loss to the Maple Leafs extended the Sabres’ losing streak to 10 games. While a team can’t miss the postseason in November, they can dig themselves a hole that’s impossible to climb out of.
If the Sabres were a rebuilding team projected to finish at the bottom of the standings, this wouldn’t be a red flag. Depending on the phase of that rebuild, it would more likely be a part of the long, painful process. Instead, it’s all the more disappointing for a team hoping to end a 13-year playoff drought.
The Sabres aren’t alone in this. The Detroit Red Wings and Ottawa Senators are two other up-and-coming teams that have generated hype as Eastern Conference disruptors over the last couple of seasons. But these three Atlantic Division teams just keep spinning their wheels instead of moving forward, even when fading playoff perennials are giving them prime opportunities to finally advance.
Sabres in another downward spiral
There was so much buzz around the 2022-23 Sabres. Sure, sometimes it took a 4-3 finish or a 7-6 final to earn a win. But despite all of their flaws on the back end, the Sabres’ high-flying offense made them a team to watch. The team had promise, up and down the lineup. Tage Thompson made a name for himself as one of the most electrifying players in the league. Rasmus Dahlin showed he had the chops to be a true No. 1 defenseman. Dylan Cozens started to break out. Owen Power, Jack Quinn and Devon Levi all showed potential.Defensive improvements came at the cost of their offense in 2023-24, and management didn’t make major on-ice changes for this season. Instead, the team relied on a new(ish)-look coaching staff to elevate a slightly adjusted roster. But now, 31 games into the season, it’s clear that bet didn’t pay off.
The Sabres’ offense has somehow sunk even lower than last year at five-on-five. And while they were making the most of their chances for a stretch this season, their shooting luck has dried up. The power play is an even bigger weakness, with the third-lowest expected and actual goal generation in the league. And now their defense is collapsing on top of it.
Tage Thompson and JJ Peterka have upped their game, but they’re some of the only Sabres to do so this season. (Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
Thompson has picked up the pace compared to last year, and JJ Peterka has been a bright spot. But almost every other player has stagnated this season. Cozens hasn’t progressed since his rookie season and doesn’t look like the puck-moving 2C to help lead this team forward. Quinn’s scoring touch has faded and Alex Tuch isn’t nearly as effective. Power isn’t driving play enough from the blue line, and Bowen Byram, last year’s big trade addition, doesn’t look top-four caliber.
Even when the Sabres find their scoring punch, they’re struggling to defend leads. The most jarring came earlier this month when the team squandered a 4-0 lead over the Avalanche only to lose 5-4 in regulation. They couldn’t hold a 5-3 lead over Detroit and lost 6-5 in a shootout. The Sabres couldn’t top the Rangers, despite all of their shortcomings, last week.
The coaches don’t seem to have the answers on how to stop this downward spiral. The roster has its flaws, too. Without high-end top-six talent on the wings, some players are slotted above their depths. Management has to find a way to navigate the challenges of high taxes and no palm trees to address that. So until the Sabres show they can build on the promise they showed two years ago and make a real playoff push, free agents likely won’t be enticed to sign there. That means management has to get creative via trade and maybe even offer sheets to support the core they’ve committed to.
Red Wings have roster flaws
Every Red Wings game down the stretch became must-watch last season. After all of their ups and downs throughout the year, Detroit was in the thick of a playoff run when it mattered most. Dylan Larkin raised his game while Lucas Raymond scored season-saving goals. But 91 points — a franchise high since 2015-16, the last time the team reached the postseason — were not enough to make the playoffs. Thanks to their tie-breaking edge in regulation wins, the Capitals took the eighth seed.The Red Wings gained momentum to end last season but haven’t found a way to build off it.
It started with a misguided offseason when Detroit sent Jake Walman to San Jose in a lopsided trade. While the move opened a roster spot for Simon Edvinsson, management didn’t make enough other key changes to improve the team’s defense. Extending Raymond and Moritz Seider may have been the primary focus in the offseason, but management should have also been looking to make cost-effective signings around their core players. The only real standout signing was goalie Cam Talbot.
Cam Talbot was the only standout offseason signing for Detroit, and it shows. (Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
The problem is this team doesn’t give their goaltenders nearly enough support. The power play may be thriving, but their five-on-five offense is among the worst in the league and this team isn’t stout enough defensively to make up for it. At five-on-five, the Red Wings sit ahead of only four teams with a 46 percent expected goal rate: the Blackhawks, Canadiens, Sharks and Ducks.
Detroit’s special-teams advantage doesn’t extend to both ends of the ice, either. The Red Wings don’t contain opposing teams’ power plays, and despite attempts to play a more aggressive style, are still getting burned consistently. Between Derek Lalonde and Bob Boughner, there are two coaches with experience running a successful penalty kill behind the bench, and yet neither has a solution this season.
The coaches shoulder some of the blame in Detroit, but the roster also has its limitations. The Yzerplan has had some highs — drafting and developing Raymond is one of the biggest success stories, and the Alex DeBrincat trade fit the Red Wings’ needs as well. But the reality is Steve Yzerman hasn’t lived up to the hype as general manager. Up front, there isn’t enough top-six talent, and the bottom six is void of offense. The defense isn’t playoff-caliber, either, which is why the coaches have no choice but to sink Seider in some of the heaviest usage in the league.
Maybe management has just identified a different playoff window, one that starts when more of their prospect pool develops into bona fide NHLers. But belief in that requires trust in the front office to build up this team when the timing is right.
Seantors may be turning the corner
The Senators started to build a new identity for themselves late in the 2022-23 season. Then, last year, they were projected to go the furthest of the three up-and-coming Atlantic Division teams. Core players like Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson looked poised to take the next steps. The return of Josh Norris elevated their center depth. And offseason signings like Joonas Korpisalo solidified this roster on paper.Stützle’s scoring and play-driving fell off in 2023-24. Norris looked like a shell of himself. Thomas Chabot and Jakob Chychrun held the team back. And the Korpisalo signing was an outright disaster. The worst-case scenario for this team became the reality.
But the 2024-25 season provided a clean slate. After navigating changes in ownership, management and coaching last season, the Senators came into the year with more stability off the ice.
The first 30 games have still been somewhat of an adventure for the Senators. Under Travis Green, there have been some legitimate improvements — including the team’s rush defense at five-on-five. Ottawa’s shot suppression ranks fifth in the league at five-on-five. Stützle looks like a star again and is no longer a liability defensively. Tkachuk is a true top-line-caliber winger. Claude Giroux is a stabilizing force at both ends of the ice. And Chabot has been a positive influence on offense and defense.
But there have also been some chaotic stretches with defensive slip-ups, offensive woes and inconsistent goaltending. Lately, at least, the Senators are managing to string together some wins as they work through that. And while they struggled at five-on-five against both the Hurricanes and Penguins, goaltending has helped them steal a couple of wins. Linus Ullmark, last summer’s latest big addition in goal, has given the Senators a chance to win with seven consecutive quality starts. That alone has helped the Senators separate themselves from last year’s identity.
Ullmark’s stability in goal and some of the Senators’ two-way progress have boosted their playoff odds to 46 percent. That is an encouraging eight percent bump from the preseason. Maybe the Senators are finally turning the corner, but there is still reason for skepticism, considering how many times the team has shown real progress only to regress.
Development isn’t a straight line, and up-and-coming teams are bound to struggle along the way. But at a certain point, there needs to be tangible results to show progress. For the Senators, Red Wings and Sabres, that means breaking through into the playoff picture. Each team has played some meaningful games down the stretch over the last couple of seasons, but those last-minute bursts have been too little, too late.
If any of these teams are going to jump into the top eight in the East, someone has to fall out. In 2022-23, the Penguins’ and Capitals’ shortcomings opened the door for the Devils. In 2023-24, Pittsburgh’s failings and the Devils’ step backward gave the Capitals a chance to jump back into the playoff mix when it seemed like their window was closing. The openings have been there; the Atlantic teams just didn’t capitalize on them.
But maybe this season is the best opportunity yet, considering how many projected playoff teams are falling short.
The Penguins have faded out of the playoff picture. The Islanders have fundamental issues holding them back, from an ability to defend third-period leads to a special teams disadvantage on both ends of the ice. The Rangers are spiraling out of control with ten losses in their past 13 games. The team is an absolute defensive wreck, and the coaches haven’t found a way to stop the bleeding. And while the Bruins have a better track record since making a coaching change, their offense is still anemic and the goaltending is inconsistent. Even the Lightning have holes: the goaltending is falling short of expectations and their five-on-five offense could be better.
But somehow, none of these declining teams are out of the playoff picture entirely. The Bruins still have 39 percent odds. The Rangers’ core, as flawed as it may be, gives them a shot. The Islanders are finally getting healthy, which should boost their chances. And the Lightning lead the way with 98 percent odds.
It’s not only because it’s early enough in the season for anyone to turn it around. The next wave of playoff teams isn’t pushing them out of their position, either.
Those three up-and-coming Atlantic Division teams have their best chance yet to take the next step into the playoff picture. The promise and potential are still there, but at a certain point, these teams have to prove potential can add up to more than just middling play.