The Athletic: NFL picks against the spread, Week 1: Why we’re high on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills

NFL picks against the spread, Week 1: Why we’re high on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills

Our best bets in Week 1 feature a lot of chalk, with the Bills over the Cardinals and Lions over the Rams among our favorites.

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How about that Taylor Swift? She is now taking time out from world domination to draw up some plays for Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs dropped passes all year long and still won the Super Bowl last season, and now they’re going for the three-peat and have no problems being cute about it. That’s because there doesn’t appear to be any team in the AFC that can get in their way from getting back to the big game. And they’re not going to lose any sleep over the San Francisco 49ers or Detroit Lions once they get there.

Maybe Taylor can help us out with some picks this opening week. The shortened preseason and limited contact makes the first couple of weeks mistake-prone and ugly, and the league values the dollar over quality and player safety so much that it sent two teams to Brazil on Friday to open the season.

Brazil!

Maybe the 10-hour flight will give the Philadelphia Eagles enough distance from last season’s collapse — but probably not.

The wise guys played it safe this week, with 11 home favorites between 3 and 6.5 points. There are some trap lines like the Buffalo Bills -6.5 at home against the Arizona Cardinals, but we have never been one to shy away from shiny objects or cheese. And we do like the Bills and Josh Allen, more specifically, this season. Here’s our wager on Allen and a look at some other season bets before we get to this week’s games:

MVP: Mahomes has only won this award twice, and maybe he is just too good for it. The narrative is definitely set up for Allen, who lost all his receivers this offseason and has never won the award despite some ridiculous statistics. Allen led the league last season converting runs into first downs 51.4 percent of the time, per TruMedia, and was also sacked the fewest times per pressure. He is 8.5 to 1 to win the award, and one of only three people I see having a chance to win it (Mahomes is 5 to 1 and Joe Burrow is 9 to 1).

Season totals: We still love the Seattle Seahawks over 7.5 wins. The only ones we would change after training camps are the Jacksonville Jaguars now going over 8.5 wins and the New England Patriots now going under 5.5. The Jaguars collapsed after an 8-3 start last season, but that’s no reason for everyone to sleep on Trevor Lawrence and an improved offense. The Patriots lost defensive tackle Christian Barmore to blood clots and then gave up on the season, trading pass rusher Matt Judon to the Atlanta Falcons and starting retread Jacoby Brissett at quarterback over rookie Drake Maye to protect Maye from injury.


GO DEEPER
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Super Bowl pick: Sigh … it’s going to be the Chiefs (5 to 1) again, but the Lions at 12-1 are not a stupid bet. They are better than they were last season and have 14 of 17 games indoors to win home-field advantage for the playoffs. It does feel like the window on the 49ers is closing, though they threw some money at Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams over the past week to try to keep it open.

Last season’s record: 135-130-7 against the spread, 48-41-1 on best bets.

This week’s slate:

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)| 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS​

Allen lost 241 of his targets from last season with the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, but he still has Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir. Yes, Shakir. Among receivers targeted between 40 and 74 times last season (45), Shakir was first in 0.98 EPA per target and sixth in 1.3 EPA per reception (sixth). And the Cardinals are very young in the secondary.

Arizona won three out of eight games after Kyler Murray returned last season, and its best chance to stay close here is to lean on a running game that ranked fourth in yards and second in yards per attempt last season. The Cardinals need to keep Allen off the field and minimize what they ask Murray to do. Murray is now in Year 6 and still has trouble seeing over his linemen in the middle of the field. His average of 5.7 yards per attempt on passes between the hashes was the worst in the NFL, according to TruMedia, and his overall efficiency was just 6.7 yards per attempt. First-round pick Marvin Harrison Jr. might make his life easier, but maybe not in Week 1 — with an early start on the East Coast.

The pick: Bills

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (-3) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, NBC​

The Chiefs embarrassed Lamar Jackson in the playoffs last season, to the point where you might have forgotten that he was actually the MVP last season. His completion percentage was a career-best at 67.2 percent. Now he has old man Derrick Henry to hand the ball off to, and Henry has a much better supporting cast than the Titans’ one he carried around. Henry led the NFL in carries last season (280) and his EPA per rush (-0.01) will improve in a Ravens offense that was sixth in rush success (41.5 percent), fifth in EPA per rush (0.03) and third in yards per carry (4.9) last season.

The Ravens will definitely have more success running the ball than the Chiefs will against Baltimore’s front. The Chiefs lost their prime-time home opener a year ago, and they might be sleepwalking again here out of the gate against a motivated Ravens team. Give me Jackson, Henry, pride and the points.

The pick: Ravens

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) in Sao Paulo, Brazil | 8:20 p.m. ET Friday, NBC​

The fine folks in Brazil get the first look at two of last year’s worst running backs. Saquon Barkley had a -0.20 EPA per carry rate (51st out of 56 RBs) with the Giants, while Josh Jacobs finished 45th with a -0.16 EPA rate with the Raiders. They were both nicked up and in bad situations and are obviously big-time talents who should thrive on their new teams (Jacobs at 15-to-1 to lead the league in rushing with the Packers’ limited depth at RB is interesting, to say the least.)

Jalen Hurts was also injured last season, which Eagles fans hope explains his and the team’s demise. We’re not sure it does, but while Nick Siriani’s seat is still hot, Barkley, an improved defense (C.J. Gardner-Johnson, some more nice draft picks and Devin White) should be enough cushion this week. The Eagles hold off a still-pretty-young Packers team.

The pick: Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons (-3) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox​

It’s the Arthur Smith revenge game. But, revenge for who? For Smith, going against the team that stuck him with Desmond Ridder and then fired him? Or for the Falcons, who had to deal with the moody coach who didn’t care about getting top draft picks Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson the ball while his team blew leads?

Smith, the Steelers’ new offensive coordinator, will ride with Russell Wilson at quarterback until he gets tired of him like Sean Payton did, and how long will depend on how well the Steelers defense can carry them. On paper, it looks like one of the better defenses in the league and it should hold up Sunday against one of the three teams with a new head coach and new quarterback (that will be working out some kinks). The under of 42 might be a better pick than the Steelers. The Falcons haven’t had a double-digit sack guy since Vic Beasley in 2016, and Judon could become a household name this season. He had a 17.8 percent pressure rate before getting hurt with the Patriots last season.

The pick: Steelers


Which side exactly is out for revenge when Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith faces the Falcons? (Barry Reeger / USA Today)

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears (-4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox​

The Bears have some momentum, as everyone thinks rookie QB Caleb Williams will be a star, they have one of the best receiving corps in the league and their defense finished last season very strong. They should win and cover the spread here, as the Titans have a lot of roster turnover and I don’t think Will Levis is giving off road-win vibes.

But … I think the Titans will keep the game close. They have a good pass rush and their secondary will be a problem for QBs in the near future after they added cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie. (The Titans ranked 30th in defensive production rating against the pass and 27th in opposing passer rating last season.) We even think Calvin Ridley has a big bounce-back year after an up-and-down season with the Jaguars.

The pick: Titans

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-8) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS​

We touched earlier on how bad the Patriots defense is. Well, their offense could be worse. The offensive line is so bad and banged up that they likely won’t be able to take advantage of the Bengals’ porous defense.

The Bengals did address their offensive line by signing Trent Brown and drafting Amarius Mims in the first round. Brown will open as the starter at right tackle with Mims out with an injury. Brown makes 6-foot-8, 345-pound left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. look small, as he is the same height and 25 pounds (cough) heavier. Burrow also got Ja’Marr Chase back at practice on Wednesday, and while everyone is being quiet about his status for Week 1, Burrow said his star receiver is “ready to go.” The Patriots are not.

The pick: Bengals

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+3) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS​

Can C.J. Stroud pick up where he left off with his dominance of the AFC South? In five starts as a rookie against division opponents, Stroud completed 120 of 171 pass attempts (70.2 percent) for 1,445 yards and nine touchdowns, no interceptions and one rushing touchdown. Stroud had the seventh-best EPA per dropback rate at 0.11, and two of his receivers, Nico Collins and Tank Dell, finished in the top 10 in EPA per target and EPA per receptions rates. They will have to be big factors again, as the Colts do a good job stopping the run and making teams one-dimensional.

The Texans beat the Colts in last season’s finale to earn a playoff spot and then addressed some defensive needs by signing defensive end Danielle Hunter and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and drafting cornerback Kamari Lassiter. It seems like they should be able to contain Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson, who is still knocking some rust off. But the Colts offensive line is again one of the better ones in the league and I think the Colts take care of business and win at home. The Texans have gone from the hunter to the hunted and the first moment here is a little too big for them.

The pick: Colts


Anthony Richardson is still shaking off some rust, but he’ll lead the Colts to a win in the opener. (Albert Cesare / The Enquirer / USA Today)

 

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS​

As much as we love Tua Tagovailoa coming out of his shell — no more Mr. Nice Guy — and appreciate how explosive this offense is, the Dolphins lost some key pieces on the offensive line and defense. Pass rusher Bradley Chubb is still a month away from returning from a knee injury, while Jaelan Phillips will be on a snap count coming back from an Achilles injury. That means smoother sailing for Lawrence and Rookie of the Year longshot Brian Thomas Jr.

I wanted to pick the Jaguars, I really did, but I am not confident the Jaguars’ defense can slow down Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle even a little bit. Plus, I have seen too many teams wilt in that second-half Miami heat to only get 3.5 points.

The pick: Dolphins

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox​

Here is a hot take that you can steal next time you are talking football with your buddies, your partner or the stranger in line at the market: If the Panthers had drafted Stroud and the Texans had selected Bryce Young, we would be talking about Stroud as the potential bust. Young was thrown to the lions last season without surrounding talent or a decent plan, and now he is getting ready for Year 2 with some new receivers, a beefed-up offensive line and a reborn Miles Sanders (late fantasy stash, you’re welcome). And a coach in Dave Canales who will be learning on the job but has shown he can get improvement out of quarterbacks (Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield). The offensive line is particularly important, as new guards Robert Hunt — who finished first among right guards in pressure percentage allowed (1 percent) — and Damien Lewis pack a punch.

The Saints, meanwhile, sure seem like a team waiting for something, whether it’s a new coach or quarterback. They still have some aging talent, but it’s hard to see them winning this game by more than a field goal. If at all.

The pick: Panthers

Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (+1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox​

There are very, very, very few games where you can circle the Giants as having the quarterback edge, and this is one of them. Daniel Jones is coming off knee surgery and won’t be the game-breaker he has been on one or two occasions, but the Vikings pass rush is worse than it was last season so he should be OK staying out of trouble. That will help him stay on schedule and get the ball to Malik Nabers, who will have a coming-out party.

Sam Darnold, on the other hand, will mix in a pretty throw or two to Justin Jefferson that will get all the film studiers lathered up. But then he will make a mistake, and then force in an interception and probably a fumble, too, and remind everyone else why the No. 3 pick from 2018 is on his fourth team in seven years. And the Giants defense is sneaky good, with Brian Burns — about to have a big fresh-start year after being freed from the Panthers — joining Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence II to pressure quarterbacks. Lawrence’s pressure rate has improved each of the past five seasons, from 7.8 to 8.7 to 10.5 to 12.9 to 15.3.

This is a big one for all of us who have the Giants — a playoff team in 2022 — over 6.5 wins (Hello … is this mic on?).

The pick: Giants

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS​

It was just nine months ago that the Raiders put up 63 points on the Chargers, forcing the firing of coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco. Telesco is now the general manager of the Raiders, who are hoping that the intensity tsunami of coach Antonio Pierce still has some good waves left to ride in Year 2. Telesco was unable to move up in the draft to grab a quarterback for the Raiders, who are left to go with Gardner Minshew II.

Still, the Raiders have a half-year jump on the Chargers as far as creating a similar, hard-nosed culture, and new coach Jim Harbaugh dumped receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and running back Austin Ekeler, while quarterback Justin Herbert missed training camp with a foot injury.

It’s early, it’s only one game, but don’t the Raiders have to win this divisional game to validate not even talking to Harbaugh before they removed Pierce’s interim tag? Maxx Crosby, Christian Wilkins and a close-knit defense say yes.

The pick: Raiders

Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks (-6) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS​

Sean Payton had quite the preseason. Not only did he quickly develop rookie Bo Nix into a starter, but also he fixed Jets castaway Zach Wilson. Nix, it turns out, was the quarterback that Payton fell in love with at some workout and really wanted in this draft — which worked out great because Nix was the only one left when the Broncos picked 12th. We’ll see how Nix does, but it seems like taking the only quarterback left over the best defensive player in the draft is a bad recipe for success, especially when your defense is terrible.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, have a rookie defensive savant as coach in Mike Macdonald and an already promising defense that had Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy II fall into their laps at No. 16. Geno Smith is underrated to me, they have three really good receivers and a running back in Kenneth Walker III who might threaten for the rushing yards crown. How is this game even close?

The pick: Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox​

The Cowboys had some big losses on the offensive line this offseason and the talent at receiver and running back is the worst it’s been in some time. That’s not the kind of team that is excited about walking into the Dawg Pound. The Browns have a mean, nasty defense that allowed the fewest points per game (13.9), fewest total yards per game (215.9) and fewest passing yards per game (126.3) in their home games last season, going 8-1.

So … why did the Cowboys open as road favorites in this game? I guess because they still have CeeDee Lamb and they did lead the NFL with 29.9 points per game last season. Quarterback Dak Prescott had 188 big plays (10-plus yards) to lead the league and should be better in his second year with Mike McCarthy as the play caller. And for all their issues, the Cowboys draft and seem to fill their holes pretty well.

The sheep are all betting on the Browns, but I will ride with Prescott and the rather large edge over enigmatic Browns QB Deshaun Watson.

The pick: Cowboys


The offensive playmakers around him aren’t what they used to be, but Dak Prescott still has CeeDee Lamb and that will be enough in Cleveland. (Harry How / Getty Images)

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox​

It’s always tough when you don’t want to pick either team. The Commanders are one of the three teams (Falcons and Patriots are the others) with a new coach and a new quarterback, and with even experienced teams not getting enough reps, that combination is a no-go for me. We also love Jayden Daniels’ explosiveness, but we are concerned about his thin body taking big hits. And one reason we are worried about that is that Daniels got sacked a lot in college — despite his great running ability. Of the six quarterbacks drafted in the first round this year, Daniels had the second-worst sack rate when pressured, 20.2 percent to Williams’ 21.9 percent. (Nix was first at 6.3 percent, per TruMedia.)

The Buccaneers overachieved last season despite an anemic running game — they were last in the league in rushing success percentage (28.2) and yards per carry (3.4) — and didn’t do much to address it. They also lost some key defensive players, but Mayfield and Mike Evans should be able to get Tampa Bay to the winner’s circle. And the coverer’s circle.

The pick: Buccaneers

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC​

The Rams are a trendy sleeper pick even though they lost the best defensive player in the league to early retirement when Aaron Donald hung ’em up. But their star receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are both dinged up, Matthew Stafford may be eyeing the exit himself soon enough and the defense may be counting on too many younger players. The Lions, meanwhile, had a great offseason and have improved from last year’s dangerous team that had the 49ers on the ropes in the playoffs. DJ Reader will plug the middle against the run, while cornerback Terrion Arnold falling to No. 24 in the draft should be impossible.

The Lions can make a loud statement in the opener about their plans this season, and I expect them to.

The pick: Lions

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (-4) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN​

Aaron Rodgers returns to the NFL and the Bay Area, and the Jets addressed their offensive line to make sure he survives the opening minutes of Week 1 this season. New left tackle Tyron Smith ranked third in pressure percentage allowed at 3.2 percent, while new left guard John Simpson ranked sixth among left guards with a 3.5 percent pressure rate. The Jets roster is pretty stacked and could be a contender if old man Rodgers can be 70 percent of what he once was.

Defensively, the Jets should be able to contain the 49ers’ talented receivers, and their run defense is not great but gets a break as both 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (calf) and left tackle Williams (holdout) are rounding into shape.

The 49ers win, but Rodgers makes enough great throws to Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and even Breece Hall to keep it close.

The pick: Jets

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Best bets: A lot of chalk, baby. Bengals over Patriots, Bills over Cardinals, Seahawks over Broncos and Lions over Rams should all be comfortable home wins. Our fifth spot goes to the Eagles over the Packers because Saquon Barkley puts on a show in Brazil.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Raiders defense leads the way against a rebuilt Chargers team.