The Athletic: NFL playoff picture, Week 11: Broncos bust Chiefs’ division hopes; Rams team to beat in NFC?

NFL playoff picture, Week 11: Broncos bust Chiefs’ division hopes; Rams team to beat in NFC?

The Broncos and Rams look to be in control out West. Is it time to take the Bears' playoff hopes seriously?

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Quarterback Matthew Stafford and the Rams took down the Seahawks in Week 11. Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images

The Broncos might have ended one of the NFL’s most impressive streaks. By taking down the Chiefs 22-19 on Sunday, Denver has positioned itself to end Kansas City’s reign atop the AFC West, a division KC has won nine years in a row. The Broncos’ victory puts them at 9-2 and four wins ahead of the Chiefs (5-5). It’s not over yet, but it sure seems that if the Chiefs are going to make the playoffs, it will be as a wild-card team for the first time in Patrick Mahomes’ career.

Meanwhile, in the NFC, the Rams seized control of the West by barely hanging on to beat the Seahawks in a battle between two of the NFC’s best. The win vaults the Rams atop the division standings and also gives them a great chance to earn the conference’s No. 1 seed.

Let’s take a look at what else happened around the NFL in Week 11 and where things stand ahead of “Monday Night Football.”

Listed odds to make the playoffs, win the division and secure the No. 1 seed are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock. Go check out our NFL Playoff Simulator to lay out your favorite team’s path to the playoffs.

Denver Broncos​

The Broncos are two games clear of the Los Angeles Chargers and have a three-game edge over the Kansas City Chiefs in the loss column, so they can probably start printing the AFC West championship shirts. They’ve improved in close games since a pair of close shaves earlier this season against the Colts and Chargers. The Broncos have won six consecutive games that have been decided by 4 points or fewer.

Next three weeks: Bye, at Commanders, at Raiders

New England Patriots​

Quarterback Drake Maye’s MVP candidacy has largely overshadowed a Patriots defense that’s allowed the fifth-fewest points in the NFL, so there’s a lot of praise to go around for this accelerated turnaround. The Patriots have faced the second-weakest strength of schedule in the NFL so far, but they’ve won their six games against teams with losing records by an average of 10.5 points. That’s a fair indication the Patriots will continue to take advantage of bad teams, so their remaining tilts with the Bills and Ravens will carry AFC-defining implications.

Next three weeks: at Bengals, vs. Giants, Bye

Explore the Patriots’ chances

Indianapolis Colts​

The Colts were one of the best stories of the first half, but nostalgia won’t get them very far. They have one of the most difficult schedules in the league the rest of the way, and it’s daunting enough that their two-game lead in the AFC South is hardly secure.

Next three weeks: at Chiefs, vs. Texans, at Jaguars

Pittsburgh Steelers​

The Steelers stayed afloat for one more week, but things could get real very quickly with a pair of games against teams with winning records before their first of two showdowns with the Ravens — especially if quarterback Aaron Rodgers is going to miss time with a wrist injury. The Steelers have allocated $160 million in salary cap toward their defense — $25 million more than the second-ranked Giants and $50 million more than all but six teams — which is far too much for such a shaky unit.

Next three weeks: at Bears, vs. Bills, at Ravens

Buffalo Bills​

The Bills too frequently need quarterback Josh Allen to play perfectly to overcome their defensive issues and vulnerabilities with their offensive skill players. As Allen showed Sunday with six touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he’s the most capable player on the planet of singlehandedly winning games. But will that formula lead to a familiar ending in the postseason?

Next three weeks: at Texans, at Steelers, vs. Bengals

Los Angeles Chargers​

This isn’t unusual for the Chargers, but they’re the most difficult team to understand in the AFC field. They had really good wins against the Chiefs and Broncos in September, but they also have losses to the Giants and Commanders on their resume. Over the past five weeks, the Chargers have lost to the Colts, beaten the Steelers and gotten blown out by the Jaguars.

Next three weeks: Bye, vs. Raiders, vs. Eagles

Jacksonville Jaguars​

The Jags’ comeback victory in Week 5 against the Chiefs is looming larger by the week, as those two teams have been in a battle for the final playoff seed for a few weeks. The Jaguars will finally catch a break after a brutal scheduling stretch, but they can’t afford to let up, as evidenced in failures to finish in losses to the Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans. Impressive wins against the San Francisco 49ers, Chiefs and Chargers show the Jags are capable of beating high-quality teams.

Next three weeks: at Cardinals, at Titans, vs. Colts

In the hunt​

• Houston Texans (5-5)
• Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)
• Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
• Miami Dolphins (4-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
• Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
• New York Jets (2-8)
• Cleveland Browns (2-8)
• Tennessee Titans (1-9)

Eliminated​

• None

 

[HipKat]

Philadelphia Eagles​

The Eagles, who own the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Los Angeles Rams, seem to have figured it out defensively with back-to-back shutdowns of the Packers and Lions. Once again, the Eagles have steadied the course amid the chaos. The loss to the Broncos doesn’t look as bad now, and the dud against the Giants could be explained away as a flat Thursday performance. It looks like the NFC might just go through Philadelphia once again.

Next three weeks: at Cowboys, vs. Bears, at Chargers

Los Angeles Rams​

It’s hard to find anyone with a deeper resume right now than the Rams, who have wins against the Ravens, Jaguars, 49ers and Seahawks during their five-game winning streak. They also have a victory over the Colts, with upcoming meetings with the Buccaneers and Lions before a trip to Seattle. The Rams could enter the playoffs as the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite if they continue to handle business against the league’s best teams.

Next three weeks: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Cardinals

Chicago Bears​

The Bears don’t have a victory against a team that currently has more than three wins. There’s no need to apologize for a soft schedule, but the Bears will have to answer for it. Their remaining opponents have a .597 winning percentage, the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL.

Next three weeks: vs. Steelers, at Eagles, at Packers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers​

The NFC South leaders have lost three of four, falling to the Lions, Patriots and Bills. But expect the Bucs to be more dangerous soon, as they get more healthy. And once they get through this week’s visit to the Rams, the Bucs have a decent schedule with four division opponents over their last six outings.

Next three weeks: at Rams, vs. Cardinals, vs. Saints

Seattle Seahawks​

Sam Darnold’s career revival has been remarkable, but he doesn’t need to drive the offense for the Seahawks to be successful. The opportunities for turnovers are still a concern. He lost a fumble in a goal-to-go situation in the final minute in a Week 1 loss to the 49ers, threw an interception in the closing minute to set up the Bucs’ decisive score in Week 5 and tossed four picks in Sunday's loss to the Rams.

Next three weeks: at Titans, vs. Vikings, at Falcons

Green Bay Packers​

The Packers’ sluggish starts and inconsistent performances are hugely concerning for a team that looked like a true Super Bowl favorite earlier this season. The onus is on the high-powered offense because the defense typically comes to play. Since Week 15 in 2024, the Packers are 8-0-1 when they score at least 26 points and 0-6 when they don’t. They averaged 10 points per game during their last four losses, including the playoff defeat to the Eagles. So when it’s been bad, it’s been abnormally bad.

Next three weeks: vs. Vikings, at Lions, vs. Bears

San Francisco 49ers​

The Niners have alternated wins and losses since their 3-0 start. It’s a testament to their depth, particularly at quarterback, with Mac Jones spelling Brock Purdy, but the NFC is too deep for that up-and-down ride to be sustainable. Ranked 16th in scoring and 14th in points allowed, the 49ers have yet to do anything remarkably well. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results.

Next three weeks: vs. Panthers, at Browns, Bye

Explore the 49ers’ chances

In the hunt​

• Detroit Lions (6-4)
• Carolina Panthers (6-5)
• Minnesota Vikings (4-6)
• Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-7)
• Atlanta Falcons (3-7)
• Washington Commanders (3-8)
• New Orleans Saints (2-8)
• New York Giants (2-9)
  

Eliminated​

• None

 

[Victor7]

Unless they fall of a cliff in historic fashion the Broncos are most likely taking that division. That however does not elimiante the Chiefs. They are still very much in the hunt and I believe will make it. And once there ..... all bets are off.

As I've said before. Until they are fully eliminated and with no chance left they are STILL the team to beat.