The Athletic: NFL Power Rankings Week 12: Lions, Bills rolling, plus coaching hot seat check-in

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5930653/2024/11/19/nfl-power-rankings-week-12-lions-bills-coaches/

The NFL coaching carousel looks like it will do good business this offseason. Two head coaches already have been fired, and one of them somehow is not Doug Pederson (yet), and 10 or 11 more might before the start of the 2025 season, including a couple you may not believe

The Week 12 Power Rankings will check in on job security at all 32 franchises. How hot exactly is everyone’s seat? Cold? Room temperature? How about blazing hot, Matt Eberflus?

We’ve also shaken things up at the top, and the bully ball Detroit Lions and coach Dan Campbell are back on top and looking like they intend to stay there.

1. Detroit Lions (9-1)​

Last week: 2

Sunday: Beat Jacksonville Jaguars 52-6

Seat temperature check: Cold

There’s no better marriage of coach and city than in Detroit where Dan Campbell has been a one-man city revitalization effort. The Lions are 23-7 (including playoffs) since the beginning of last season. They had 38 first downs and outgained the Jaguars by 475 yards Sunday. Detroit has beaten three teams by at least 38 points this season, and its point differential (plus-15.9 per game) is on pace to be second-highest in the NFL since at least 2000 behind only the 2007 Patriots, according to TruMedia. “If people got problems with what we’re doing or complaining about it, they can just come out here and play better football. That’s the only fix to this problem,” cornerback Carlton Davis said.

Up next: at Indianapolis Colts, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2)​

Last week: 4

Sunday: Beat Kansas City 30-21

Seat temperature check: Cool

Sean McDermott is not going to be fully embraced in Buffalo until he at least gets the Bills to the Super Bowl, but ending the Chiefs’ perfect season is good for morale. McDermott, who is 82-43 since taking the job in 2017, has gone to only one conference title game, and Kansas City ended the Bills’ season there. Sunday established the Bills as a real contender this season, but they’re going to have to prove it again and probably against the same old foe.

Up next: Bye

3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1)​

Last week: 1

Sunday: Lost 30-21 to Buffalo Bills

Seat temperature check: Gold

That’s not a typo that should read cold. Andy Reid’s seat is a throne. The 66-year-old will leave Kansas City when he’s ready and not before. He’s under contract through the 2029 season, and that contract is worth $100 million, according to Sportico. Reid needs 62 more wins to pass Don Shula and become the NFL’s all-time winningest coach in the regular season. He would have to stay on a torrid pace to get there by the end of this contract, but he’s on a torrid pace now.

Up next: at Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The T.J. Watt-led defense has the Steelers in the driver’s seat in the AFC North after Sunday’s win against the Ravens. (Barry Reeger / Imagn Images)

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2)​

Last week: 6

Sunday: Beat Baltimore Ravens 18-16

Seat temperature check: Cold

While the rest of the NFL world marvels at the fact that Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 18 years in Pittsburgh, Steelers fans have been wondering when he’s going to have another big-time winning one. Maybe it’s this year. Pittsburgh is winning Tomlin’s way, too. The Steelers are second in scoring defense (16.2 ppg) and doing just enough on offense (14th in scoring, 23.3 ppg). On Sunday, they won for the second time this season without scoring a touchdown.

Up next: at Cleveland Browns, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

5. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2)​

Last week: 5

Thursday: Beat Washington Commanders 26-18

Seat temperature check: Room

Nick Sirianni is the only coach who is headed toward a double-digit win season and is still not completely secure in his job. Sirianni is now 42-19 in four years in Philadelphia. That makes him the second-winningest active coach in the league (68.9 percent) behind Jim Harbaugh. Don Shula won a lower percentage of games as a head coach than Sirianni has, but, if we’re being honest, we could see Sirianni doing something goofy enough before the end of the season that Philly’s front office makes a change.

Up next: at Los Angeles Rams, Sunday, 8:20 p.m.

6. Green Bay Packers (7-3)​

Last week: 7

Sunday: Beat Chicago Bears 20-19

Seat temperature check: Cold

It’s hard to figure out what the Packers’ ceiling is this season. Jordan Love is tied for the league lead with 11 interceptions, but he had Sunday’s highest yards per attempt (15.4). What’s much easier is assessing Matt LaFleur’s value. His 67.7 winning percentage is third best among active coaches and 12th all time among qualifying coaches. Packers fans might be antsy because he hasn’t been to a conference title game since 2020, but they need to appreciate what they have.

Up next: vs. San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

7. Minnesota Vikings (8-2)​

Last week: 8

Sunday: Beat Tennessee Titans 23-13

Seat temperature check: Cold

Is there one knock on Kevin O’Connell? Of the 10 head coaches hired in 2022, he’s the winningest and one of only two with a winning record. He moved to 28-16 Sunday. O’Connell survived Kirk Cousins’ season-ending injury last year. He’s thriving this year after J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending injury. He was smart enough and secure enough to hire Brian Flores as his defensive coordinator. Honestly, find a person who will say something bad about him.

Up next: at Chicago Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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8. Baltimore Ravens (7-4)​

Last week: 3

Sunday: Lost 18-16 to Pittsburgh Steelers

Seat temperature check: Cool

After 17 years and a Super Bowl title, it should be cold, but then a game like Sunday happens. John Harbaugh is the second-longest tenured NFL head coach, but he just fell to 15-21 in head-to-head matchups against the longest-tenured one (Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin). The Ravens are the most penalized team (92 for 763 yards), a total to which they contributed 12 flags for 80 yards against the Steelers.

Up next: at Los Angeles Chargers, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

9. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)​

Last week: 10

Sunday: Beat Cincinnati Bengals 34-27

Seat temperature check: Cold

If Jim Harbaugh can kill “Chargering,” what can’t he do? Sunday night’s shootout against Cincinnati was the kind this organization seems to always lose, but whatever magic Harbaugh brings to his teams carried them through. After the Bengals tied the game at 27-27 early in the fourth quarter, Cincinnati missed two field goals and had four pointless possessions. Los Angeles then marched for the game-winning touchdown. What else is it but magic? Harbaugh improved to 51-22-1 as an NFL coach, and his winning percentage (.696) puts him fifth all time and best among active coaches.

Up next: vs. Baltimore Ravens, Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

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10. Washington Commanders (7-4)​

Last week: 9

Thursday: Lost to Philadelphia Eagles 26-18

Seat temperature check: Cool

Even after a two-game losing streak, almost everyone in Washington is still smiling. Jayden Daniels is the biggest reason for that, but Dan Quinn deserves credit, too. Quinn’s upbeat, high-octane style has been perfect for a Commanders organization that needed some good vibes. If there’s a concern, it’s that Daniels is 24th in EPA per dropback (minus-.08) in the last two weeks compared with second in the first nine weeks (.35). It could be a blip, but it could be defenses figured out the rookie and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury.

Up next: vs. Dallas Cowboys, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

11. Denver Broncos (6-5)​

Last week: 17

Sunday: Beat Atlanta Falcons 38-6

Seat temperature check: Cold

Sean Payton completed a four-game sweep of the NFC South on Sunday. Why is that significant? It’s the division where Payton coached for the Saints for 15 years, winning 63.1 percent of his games. He’s now .500 with the Broncos and has Denver pointed toward the playoffs and rookie quarterback Bo Nix in the rookie of the year conversation. Payton is also top 20 all-time in regular-season wins among NFL head coaches (166).

Up next: at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

12. Houston Texans (7-4)​

Last week: 13

Monday: Beat Dallas Cowboys 34-10

Seat temperature check: Cold

DeMeco Ryans is 17-11 in Houston after trouncing the Cowboys on Monday night. Former Ryans teammate J.J. Watt appeared on the “ManningCast” broadcast and said he wasn’t surprised by Ryans’ success. “I knew he would be a great head coach. We all did when we were playing together,” Watt said. “I bought my house in Houston across the street from him because if it was a good enough spot for DeMeco to live in, it was good enough for me. DeMeco was the perfect person to take this city back to the place where they were proud of their football team.”

Up next: vs. Tennessee Titans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

13. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)​

Last week: 11

Sunday: Bye

Seat temperature check: Cool

After a 2-4 start, Arizona has won four straight games, and Jonathan Gannon has the Cardinals as the most surprising division leader of the season. Gannon took over an organization that had had one winning season in the previous seven years. These Cardinals are in the top half of the league in scoring (23.8 ppg), scoring defense (22 ppg allowed) and point differential (18).

Up next: at Seattle Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Quarterback Geno Smith and the Seahawks saved their season on Sunday with an upset victory against the 49ers. (David Gonzales / Imagn Images)

14. Seattle Seahawks (5-5)​

Last week: 19

Sunday: Beat San Francisco 49ers 20-17

Seat temperature check: Cool

Mike Macdonald hasn’t done much to improve Seattle’s defense yet. The Seahawks are 21st in the league in points allowed (23.8 per game), but this team still is playing hard for him. Seattle had lost five of six entering Sunday’s game and came from behind twice on the road against the 49ers. The Seahawks are tied for second in the NFC West and play division leader Arizona twice in the next three weeks.

Up next: vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

15. Los Angeles Rams (5-5)​

Last week: 18

Sunday: Beat New England Patriots 28-22

Seat temperature check: Cold

Can we point out that Sean McVay is 20-24 since his Super Bowl win or will people yell at us? They might have a right to yell because McVay’s influence off the field is just as impressive as his record. Maybe more. At 38, he could leave the job today and still have had an outsized impact on the game. The Falcons’ Zac Robinson, The Bucs’ Liam Coen, the Packers’ Matt LaFleur, the Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell and the Bengals’ Zac Taylor are among the current crop of play callers who worked for McVay in Los Angeles.

Up next: vs. Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

 

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16. San Francisco 49ers (5-5)​

Last week: 12

Sunday: Lost to Seattle Seahawks 20-17

Seat temperature check: Room

Kyle Shanahan should be completely safe. Somehow he’s not. The 49ers are in the top half of the league in scoring (25 ppg) and scoring defense (22.2 ppg allowed), but something’s not clicking. San Francisco has advanced at least to the NFC Championship Game the last three years and has been to two Super Bowls under Shanahan, but fans are starting to get restless. Hopefully, ownership is not. There’s a better chance the 49ers get worse and not better if they make a coaching change.

Up next: at Green Bay Packers, Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

17. Atlanta Falcons (6-5)​

Last week: 14

Sunday: Lost to Denver Broncos 38-6

Seat temperature check: Cool

There’s no scenario in which Raheem Morris is not back for a second season in Atlanta next year, but the vibes aren’t nearly as good as they were a couple of weeks ago. Sunday’s loss was the Falcons’ third worst since 2010, and the defense, which is Morris’ side of the ball, looks helpless at the moment. Morris has Atlanta in the NFC South pole position, but his .386 winning percentage is the worst among qualifying active head coaches.

Up next: Bye

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6)​

Last week: 16

Sunday: Bye

Seat temperature check: Room

Todd Bowles has won two division titles in the last two years. He had the Buccaneers right back in the NFC South mix this season before receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were injured. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen was a great hire. Still, Bowles has one double-digit win season in his seven seasons as a full-time head coach. His .423 career winning percentage is in Herm Edwards, Chan Gailey and Rich Kotite territory.

Up next: at New York Giants, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson led the Colts to a much-needed win Sunday after reclaiming the starting job. (Robert Deutsch / Imagn Images)

19. Indianapolis Colts (5-6)​

Last week: 21

Sunday: Beat New York Jets 28-27

Seat temperature check: Room

Shane Steichen’s handling of the quarterback situation did not instill confidence. Maybe that’s because he had to translate the thoughts of ownership and the front office, or maybe he’s just a second-year head coach not completely comfortable in the role yet. After declaring Joe Flacco his starter early last week, Steichen reversed course the next day and swapped to Anthony Richardson, who led a 70-yard drive and scored the winning touchdown on a 4-yard run inside the final minute Sunday. The win evened Steichen’s record at 14-14.

Up next: vs. Detroit Lions, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

20. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7)​

Last week: 15

Sunday: Lost to Los Angeles Chargers 34-27

Seat temperature check: Warm

It looks like the Bengals are about to miss the playoffs while having the NFL’s leader in touchdown passes (Joe Burrow, 27), leading receiver (Ja’Marr Chase, 1,056) and leader in sacks (Trey Hendrickson, 11.5). Zac Taylor is now 41-51-1, and there are signs of strain. “I play football on the field. I don’t call plays for us,” Chase said Sunday night when asked why the Bengals can’t close out wins.

Up next: Bye

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21. Miami Dolphins (4-6)​

Last week: 20

Sunday: Beat Las Vegas Raiders 34-19

Seat temperature check: Cool

The Dolphins already are nearly five games behind Buffalo in the division race, but they still have a 28 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s projections. No one really wants to see Miami if it does make the playoffs because of its explosive ability. The Dolphins are top 10 in explosive play rate (12.1 percent) despite not having starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for half the season. Mike McDaniel is now 24-20 in three seasons. The only reason there’s any angst in Miami is how bad this team looked without Tagovailoa.

Up next: vs. New England Patriots, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

22. New England Patriots (3-8)​

Last week: 22

Sunday: Lost to Los Angeles Rams 28-20

Seat temperature check: Cool

Rookie quarterback Drake Maye has saved rookie head coach Jerod Mayo. Maye hasn’t made the Patriots a winner, but he’s shown enough flashes that Mayo’s decision to slowly work him into the lineup seems like the right one. Maye’s EPA per dropback (.04) is 19th in the league, and he’s thrown nine touchdown passes in six starts. Mayo’s performance hasn’t been as good, but the quarterback is taking attention away from that. To Mayo’s credit, he’s not denying that.

Up next: at Miami Dolphins, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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23. Chicago Bears (4-6)​

Last week: 23

Sunday: Lost to Green Bay Packers 20-19

Seat temperature check: Actually on fire

Changing offensive coordinators worked for a half, but beyond slight improvement from rookie quarterback Caleb Williams, there was nothing to suggest Matt Eberflus is making a positive impact on the team. Cairo Santos’ 46-yard field goal on the final play of the game was blocked. The kick was attempted on second-and-8 after the Bears turned down the chance to run another play and get closer. Then Packers players said after the game they knew they could get a block in this game. That’s a bad look for an embattled coach, which Eberflus certainly is.

Up next: vs. Minnesota Vikings, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

24. New Orleans Saints (4-7)​

Last week: 28

Sunday: Beat Cleveland Browns 35-14

Seat temperature check: Already an interim

If we only remember interim head coach Darren Rizzi for the toilet-clogging story, he will have contributed to the game, but it could be that Rizzi hangs around a little longer. He’s 2-0 since taking over for Dennis Allen, and New Orleans has such a significant rebuild coming up that maybe a caretaker coach whom the players like is a good fit. Taysom Hill had 138 rushing yards, 50 receiving yards and 18 passing yards for Rizzi on Sunday.

Up next: Bye

25. New York Jets (3-8)​

Last week: 24

Sunday: Lost to Indianapolis Colts 28-27

Seat temperature check: Already an interim

Interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich couldn’t turn around the Jets’ season, but we shouldn’t have expected any mortal to do that. Their offense has been bad all season (18.5 ppg, 26th in NFL). Their defense has been bad since Robert Saleh was fired (26.2 ppg allowed, 24th in NFL since Week 6). Now they are trying to figure out if their struggling 40-year-old quarterback is coming back and if their owner is going to take off again to be ambassador to the United Kingdom. Totally normal team.

Up next: Bye

26. Dallas Cowboys (3-7)​

Last week: 25

Monday: Lost to Houston Texans 34-10

Seat temperature check: Who knows?

Jerry Jones might fire Mike McCarthy tomorrow. He might keep McCarthy for another 10 years. He might leave McCarthy a part of the team in his will. Honestly, who knows with Jones? He kept Jason Garrett for 10 years even though Garrett won only two playoff games. McCarthy won 12 games in each of the last three regular seasons, but Monday night was the Cowboys’ fifth straight loss.

Up next: at Washington Commanders, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

27. Carolina Panthers (3-7)​

Last week: 27

Sunday: Bye

Seat temperature check: Cool

Nobody’s really on solid ground when David Tepper is running the show. Counting interims, the Panthers owner has employed seven head coaches since buying the team in 2018, but Dave Canales has won two straight games and gotten slight improvement from Bryce Young. The bet here is that no matter Carolina’s finish, Tepper will opt for a tiny measure of stability and give Canales a chance with a new quarterback.

Up next: vs. Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

28. New York Giants (2-8)​

Last week: 29

Sunday: Bye

Seat temperature check: Warm

Team owner John Mara said in late October that he had no plans to fire Brian Daboll during or after the season. Plans change sometimes. New York has lost five games in a row and 11 of its last 14 dating to last season. Since being named Coach of the Year after a 9-7-1 debut season, Daboll is 8-19. If he keeps his job, it’ll be by making the argument that he’s not the one who wanted to extend quarterback Daniel Jones and let running back Saquon Barkley walk out the door. Jones was sent to the bench on Monday.

Up next: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

29. Las Vegas Raiders (2-8)​

Last week: 26

Sunday: Lost to Miami Dolphins 34-19

Seat temperature check: Hot

Antonio Pierce is 7-12 in two seasons after the Raiders got blown out by Miami on Sunday. They have bounced back and forth between quarterbacks all year long and never felt like a threat in the AFC West or anywhere else. Jakobi Meyers was Las Vegas’ leading rusher Sunday with one carry for 20 yards. At least there’s Brock Bowers, who had 13 catches for 126 yards against the Dolphins. With new minority owner Tom Brady in the building, it seems unlikely majority owner Mark Davis will stand pat with Pierce as head coach.

Up next: vs. Denver Broncos, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

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30. Cleveland Browns (2-8)​

Last week: 30

Sunday: Lost to New Orleans Saints 35-14

Seat temperature check: Room

Sunday’s game was tied entering the fourth quarter before the wheels came off for the Browns, and wheels coming off seems to be the theme of this season. For much of the season, the blame for all of the Browns’ issues fell on Deshaun Watson, but Watson’s out and this team still has lots of issues under Kevin Stefanski, who is 39-38 in five seasons as a head coach. Stefanski is one of those guys who will have another job a week after Cleveland fires him if he wants it, and a fresh start might be good for both sides.

Up next: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

31. Tennessee Titans (2-8)​

Last week: 31

Sunday: Lost to Minnesota Vikings 23-13

Seat temperature check: Cool

Brian Callahan is not going to be fired after his first season, but the whole “Let’s move on from Mike Vrabel” thing feels like a mistake as Thanksgiving approaches. The more likely change in Tennessee is probably at quarterback, where Will Levis is 35th among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (minus-.16). Callahan will get another shot with a quarterback of his choosing next year.

Up next: at Houston Texans, Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

32. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)​

Last week: 32

Sunday: Lost to Detroit Lions 52-6

Seat temperature check: Pile of ashes

If Matt Eberflus’ seat is on fire, then Pederson’s has already burned up completely, leaving only embers. Whenever Pederson is finally fired — and now’s probably the best time not only because the Jaguars have a bye week but because he’s a perfectly symmetrical 62-62-1 in the regular season in his career — Jacksonville will begin looking for its fifth full-time head coach since 2016.

Up next: Bye