How long can this keep up? There have been 16 teams this season that have been underdogs by 5.5 or more points, and 10 have won the game straight up, per BetMGM, while 14 have covered the spread.
That was capped off by the Jayden Daniels coming-out party Monday night, in which he stunned the Cincinnati Bengals, completing an NFL rookie record 91 percent of his passes. None was more accurate than the game-winner to Terry McLaurin that Daniels threw just before being blasted.
New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders fans were crying because they dreamed of Daniels all spring, but the Washington Commanders were never trading down from the No. 2 spot. Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys fans were also sad because, for the first time in seven years, their division rival has a real quarterback.
On the season, Daniels ranks second in dropback success rate (56.7 percent) to future MVP Josh Allen (61.9 percent). He’s only gotten better since winning the Heisman Trophy, and heck, Chicago Bears fans are probably in tears as well that their team took Caleb Williams over him.
Daniels’ performance capped off a week in which six 0-2 teams won. The San Francisco 49ers, a popular Super Bowl pick, fell to 1-2, as did the Cowboys. As I’ve said before, I can’t believe the audacity that you have to actually expect someone to sit down every week and predict winners against the spread.
Last week’s record: 6-10 (entering MNF) against the spread, 1-4 on best bets.
Season record: 21-25-2 against the spread, 5-8-2 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (+6) | 8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon
For all those who think it’s a matter of time before peace is restored and the favorites start covering again, here is some nice looking bait. The Cowboys have beaten the Giants in 13 of their past 14 meetings, and the Giants barely got by a Browns team that can’t throw the ball straight. There is a good chance Dak Prescott makes CeeDee Lamb happy again, but the Cowboys can’t run the ball, and their offensive line also has a hard time buying Prescott time. First-round pick Tyler Guyton doesn’t figure to turn his bad start around against Brian Burns. The Cowboys will also pressure Giants QB Daniel Jones, but he can at least lean on his running game. The Cowboys have the worst run defense through Week 3 in 25 years. They rank last among 798 individual team outputs with a defensive total rush EPA rate of 17.31, and the Giants’ Devin Singletary is averaging 4.7 yards per carry. The Giants keep it close.The pick: Giants
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Falcons were a great pick last week and would have beaten the Chiefs if they hadn’t lost two offensive linemen in the second quarter. Those injuries have been factored into the point spread, and there is no real value in picking the Saints on the road. The Saints do have a good pass rush and run defense, and the Falcons rank 29th in third-down conversion percentage at 22 percent. On offense, New Orleans lost center Erik McCoy for two months with a groin injury, but it’s unclear whether the Falcons can take advantage because their run defense ranks 22nd and new edge rusher Matthew Judon has been decent but uninspiring thus far — his 12.5 percent pressure rate (54th among 205 players) is the lowest output of his career through three weeks. We’ll take the Saints to win on the road, but we’re not that excited about it.The pick: Saints
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (+4) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Bengals are teetering on the cliff — since 1990, only four of 162 teams (2.5 percent) to start 0-3 have made the postseason, per the NFL — and here comes long-lost friend Andy Dalton to try to push them over the edge. Say what you will about the Raiders’ effort last week, but Dalton was dealing, with several really impressive dimes. He’s Joe Flacco 2.0. And he will have time to throw Sunday, as the Bengals pressured Daniels only seven times (21.9 percent) and allowed an average target separation of 4.1 yards. Joe Burrow deserved better Monday, as he led the Bengals to four touchdowns, two field goals and a missed field goal in seven possessions. And he gets the win here, though we think it will be close. The Bengals defense ranks 30th with 0.12 EPA per play and 0.78 EPA per drive, and it’s no fluke.The pick: Panthers
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
The Rams are coming off an improbable comeback win against the 49ers without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp and several offensive linemen. Their defense is not very good — they’re 31st in third-down conversions (54.3 percent), EPA per play (-0.23), EPA per drive (-1.50) and EPA per pass (-0.41) — and this is a prime letdown spot after such an emotional win. But … the Bears have a terrible offensive line and average only 2.3 yards per carry. And Rams rookie edge rusher Jared Verse — who is second in the league in pass pressure percentage at 22.8 percent, behind only Aidan Hutchinson — should be able to force Caleb Williams into a mistake or two. There’s also a huge coaching edge.The pick: Rams
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Matt LaFleur might have already wrapped up Coach of the Year honors with his work with Malik Willis, whom the Packers picked up off the scrap heap from the Titans. LaFleur totally remade the Packers offense to feature Willis’ running skills, and Willis is 2-0 after routing his old team last week. The expectation is that Jordan Love will be back this week, and the Packers will need him against the Vikings defense, which has been on fire under coordinator Brian Flores and is the first unit in the last 23 seasons to have at least five sacks in each of its first three games. Minnesota ranks No. 1 in the following categories: sacks (16), pressures (54), QB hits (29), blitz percentage (28.8 percent) and defensive EPA per drive (1.40).Meanwhile, it’s revenge week for Aaron Jones, and he has had a nice start with the Vikings. He ranks fifth in EPA per carry (0.12) and fourth in rush success percentage (50.0 percent) and is a nice complement to Justin Jefferson — who ranks second among receivers in EPA per reception (1.8). It’s probably cliche to say that we expect Sam Darnold to come back down to earth a little, and maybe he overcomes a sore knee and won’t, but we’re siding with LaFleur, Love and the Packers to take care of business at home. Or else we’ll be saying next week that Kevin O’Connell has clinched the Coach of the Year award.
The pick: Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Who gets fired first? Doug Pederson, Matt Eberflus or Nick Sirianni? Pederson might not make it to a Week 6 matchup with Eberflus if he can’t at least put some points on the board and be competitive. The Jaguars split the two games with the Texans last season, despite C.J. Stroud having 645 yards passing and rushing, five touchdowns and no turnovers. Stroud should have another big day, as the Jaguars rank 29th in EPA per play (-0.11), EPA per drive (-0.68) and turnover margin (minus-3). Lost in the blowout loss to the Bills was how pass rusher Josh Allen had changed his name so as not to be confused with the Bills quarterback, and no one noticed Josh Hines-Allen’s one quarterback pressure and 3.8 percent pressure rate. This looks like a ninth straight loss for Trevor Lawrence, who joined Jim Plunkett as the only quarterbacks drafted No. 1 to have multiple losing streaks of eight or more games in their career. Lawrence ranks 26th in EPA per dropback (-0.18) and passer rating (75.1) and he looks beaten down, thanks to his offensive line and the weight of a now-even-more ridiculous $275 million extension in June.The pick: Texans
Anthony Richardson just needs to hit on a couple big passes to lead the Colts to a win. (Marc Lebryk / Imagn Images)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+1.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The Steelers have a really good defense, and QB Justin Fields is starting to get his confidence back, but their 3-0 record should have an asterisk (and we’ve had them every week). They went against a rusty, immobile Kirk Cousins, a skittish rookie in Bo Nix and then a hobbled Justin Herbert last week. And now they get Anthony Richardson, who has six interceptions. Not to mention the Colts have a horrible run defense and shouldn’t be able to slow Fields from taking off. I am going to regret this one on Monday, but I am taking the home underdog on the gut feeling that Richardson outplays Fields. (Maybe it’s something I eat or drink on Wednesdays, but I also have made weird stands with Daniel Jones and Will Levis this season … and lost.) While Richardson is tied with Jimmy Garoppolo with the most interceptions (six) through Week 3 in the past three seasons and … the lowest completion percentage (49.3 percent) through Week 3 since Josh Rosen in 2019, he’s averaged the most air yards per attempt (12.6) of any QB since 2006 in the first three weeks. Three big throws should do it on Sunday. Hop on. It will be fun.The pick: Colts
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7.5) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Playing a then-healthy 49ers team and getting manhandled in the opener was the best thing to happen to the Jets. They have shored some things up on both lines, and Aaron Rodgers has knocked some rust off and is starting to look like his old self. The Jets have won two in a row, and they haven’t even gotten Garrett Wilson going yet, while Mike Williams is still working himself back into shape. This is actually a bad spot for the Jets, as they are coming off a nationally televised win over the Patriots and travel to London next week. But I don’t think they will look past the Broncos like the Buccaneers did last week, and they will be able to get pressure on Bo Nix. The Jets aren’t really missing Haason Reddick, as they are tied for first with a 44.7 percent pressure rate and rank second in sacks with 14. Will McDonald IV (17.7 percent), Micheal Clemons (15.9 percent), Javon Kinlaw (15.4 percent) and Quinnen Williams (12.7 percent) all rank in the top 51 in the league in pressure percentage. The Jets also have a much better secondary than the Buccaneers, and while they don’t stop the run well, the Broncos can’t run the ball. Other than Nix, who should be running for his life.The pick: Jets
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) | 1 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
It’s amazing how one play can change so much. The Saints had the Eagles all but down for the count, but then three defenders ran into each other on third-and-16, and an ungazelle-like Dallas Goedert rumbled 61 yards down the sideline to set up the win. The Eagles are 2-1 despite some odd moves by Sirianni, who continues to defy the analytics leanings of his bosses, and some uneven QB play from Jalen Hurts. The Eagles might be without A.J. Brown again, and DeVonta Smith will likely sit out with a concussion from a brutal hit that wasn’t flagged. The Buccaneers will be angry after not showing up at home last week against the Broncos, and roadblock Vita Vea is back from a knee injury that held him out last week. Tampa Bay is also getting some offensive linemen back, so Baker Mayfield will be better, while Bucky Irving — seventh in the league with 0.11 EPA per carry — should finally wrest the starting job from Rachaad White.The pick: Buccaneers
Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
Daniels went from checking the ball down all the time in Week 1 to taking big shots and making perfect throws on Monday night, as his poise jumped through the television screen. He will be tested this week, not by a weak Arizona defense but by the pressure of expectations and the task of rallying teammates coming off an emotional win on a short week. It’s a great spot for the Cardinals, as the Commanders have a very bad defense — they rank last defensively with a 61.3 percent third-down conversion rate — and Kyler Murray has looked sharp. He will want to show his old coach, Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, that he is not playing “Call of Duty” as much anymore and has his team ready to make some noise in the suddenly wide-open NFC West.The pick: Cardinals
The Patriots won’t beat the 49ers, but Rhamondre Stevenson will help them cover the spread. (Brian Fluharty / Imagn Images)
New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10) | 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
If Jake Moody hadn’t barely missed a field goal and some guy named Ronnie Bell hadn’t dropped a pass, every talking head this week would have been yelling about Brock Purdy and how he was in the MVP conversation after looking very sharp without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle. So maybe that’s a good thing. The 49ers will bounce back this week to even their record at 2-2, but laying 10 points is a tough pill to swallow. Especially after they lost defensive tackle Javon Hargrave for the year with a torn triceps. They can’t stop the run now, so Rhamondre Stevenson should be able to be a nuisance. Hargrave was also effective with a 13.3 percent pressure rate, but he won’t be missed as much there because the Patriots are the worst in the league in pressure allowed at 45.8 percent. The Patriots are not very good, but double-digit favorites with losing records are 35-52-2 against the spread since 2003, per BetMGM, and the underdogs have bitten my ankle too many times already.The pick: Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (+7.5) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
The wise guys obviously anticipate Herbert being out with his bad ankle, and the Chargers could also be without Joey Bosa and starting offensive tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Man, teams are really laying out a golden-brick road for Kansas City again. The Chiefs are 3-0 and haven’t even played well yet. Travis Kelce is out of shape after taking the Super Bowl hangover to a global level, thanks to his girlfriend. He ranks 15th out of 16 tight ends (minimum nine touches) with -0.25 EPA per target, and it doesn’t even matter. That’s because Rashee Rice has been dominant. He leads all players in yards after catch (200) and leads all receivers in missed tackles forced (nine). If Harbaugh can keep this one close with only J.K. Dobbins on offense, he should be Coach of the Year. Actually … he can’t. Playing an injured Herbert against the Steelers was stupid.The pick: Chiefs
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-2) | 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
It’s been well-documented that Deshaun Watson is not good anymore. Hasn’t been for three years now. But injuries have ravaged the offensive line, so Watson also has no time and the Browns can’t run the ball. That sounds great for the Raiders, until you remember way back to last Sunday when they allowed a winless Panthers team to nearly triple their season production with 36 points. Maxx Crosby is battling a high-ankle sprain, and the Raiders also just lost safety Marcus Epps for the season. There are only a handful of defensive players who might be better than Crosby, and the Browns’ Myles Garrett is one of them. He is also practicing and playing on a snap count due to a foot injury that will require surgery. This game likely comes down to which star more closely resembles himself, and which team can run the ball — and the Raiders have the seventh-worst run game this century (total rush EPA at -27.41) in the first three games. No. 792 out of 798.The pick: Browns
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) | 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Bills have a day less to prepare for the Ravens this week, but that’s OK. Unlike the Cowboys, they will be able to contain Derrick Henry and force Lamar Jackson to beat them either with his arm or by scrambling. Jackson needs more out of Zay Flowers, who ranks 57th (out of 63 qualified WRs) in EPA per reception at 0.5 despite ranking third in average separation at the ball’s arrival at 4.35 yards. And the Ravens need more out of their defense. They have allowed just 2.8 yards per carry, but their secondary was leaky when the Raiders and Cowboys opened things up the last two games. Josh Allen has been spreading the ball around, but maybe he should lock in on Khalil Shakir more. It’s hard seeing the Ravens having an answer for Shakir, who leads the NFL in EPA per target (1.51). It’s a passing of the torch of MVPs.The pick: Bills
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1.5) | 7:30 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
Nobody believes in Mike McDaniel anymore. No one is saying he’s cool anymore because he raps along to popular songs during pre-game stretches. Heck, his team is an underdog to a winless Titans team this week. Obviously, McDaniel lost quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but there should be enough firepower on this offense to not be as terrible as it was last week. The Titans do have a good defense that was somehow embarrassed by former teammate Malik Willis last week, but Tyler Huntley or Skylar Thompson should still be able to get Tyreek Hill or De’Von Achane the ball in space. If the Dolphins start Tim Boyle, then McDaniel really has lost his fastball, and ignore the next sentence. We’re going with the home underdog, as Levis’ crazy turnovers (and bad pocket presence — he’s been sacked 15 times) make it really hard to predict a first Titans win. Even against that stiff of a coach.The pick: Dolphins
Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ABC/ESPN
Geno Smith is one of only five undefeated quarterbacks left standing, and the Seahawks already own a two-game lead in the NFC West, and, yes, part of that is due to playing three 1-2 teams. But he has three great receivers going against a young secondary in this matchup, and we don’t even know yet if talented RB Kenneth Walker III is back this week or not. The Lions, meanwhile, are off to a somewhat sluggish 2-1 start, and we actually question what a very sleepy Jared Goff can do against a young and aggressive Seahawks defense. Mike Macdonald has it ranked first in defensive EPA per play (0.25) and defensive EPA per pass play (0.30). Monday will be a good day to learn who safety Julian Love and edge rusher Boye Mafe are, though it does look like rookie defensive tackle Byron Murphy II will be out with a hamstring injury. That makes it hard to predict an upset, but it smells to us like a field-goal margin game either way.The pick: Seahawks
Best bets: Less chalk this week. We do have the Jets and Chiefs covering at home against the Broncos and Chargers, respectively, but we like the Buccaneers to cover against the Eagles and the Patriots to lose by fewer than 10 points to the 49ers. Our last five-star play is the Cardinals at home against the hungover Commanders.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): We wrote that whole blurb at the top and didn’t even mention Malik Nabers once? He makes some more big plays after the Cowboys get on their heels and the Giants (+6) win their second straight.