The Athletic: NHL playoff tiers: Where each team sits and what’s at stake down the stretch

NHL playoff tiers: Where each team sits and what’s at stake down the stretch

The Athletic asked its NHL staff to put all 32 teams into five playoff tiers and highlight what's at stake for each club in the stretch run.

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The Sabres and the Lightning are fighting for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. Bill Wippert / NHLI via Getty Images

The trade deadline is behind us and there are only 26 days until the end of the 2025-26 NHL regular season.

With each team having 15 or fewer games left, attention has shifted to the final leg of the season. Whether a team is vying for a division title, in a tight playoff chase or looking to finish the season with momentum, the stretch run has a lot to offer for all 32 clubs.

This week, The Athletic asked its NHL staff to put teams into five playoff tiers — “not happening,” “long shot,” “bubble team,” “looks like a good bet” and “it’s a lock” — and highlight what’s at stake for each team down the stretch.

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Not happening​

Chicago Blackhawks​

Draft-lottery position
The Blackhawks are in the mix with a handful of other teams near the bottom of the league standings. They could certainly use another dynamic forward to add to their roster pool. But whether they land somewhere closer to a top-three or top-five pick will depend on how they finish the season. They have played better since the Olympic break, so we’ll see where their record falls. — Scott Powers

New York Rangers​

Development and lottery odds
The Rangers’ players have no interest in maximizing lottery odds. They’ve been playing well coming out of the Olympic break. Gabe Perreault thriving with bigger minutes is encouraging, and Alexis Lafrenière was just named the NHL’s first star of the week. That is all going to be worth monitoring down the stretch. Some fans, of course, will still be on reverse standings watch. — Peter Baugh

New Jersey Devils​

Management futures
The Devils have had a disappointing season after a red-hot start and are now all but eliminated. The club’s management will have big-picture decisions to make about the organization’s future. Will general manager Tom Fitzgerald be back next year? How about coach Sheldon Keefe? And will anything about the team’s play down the stretch change anyone’s fate? — Peter Baugh

Florida Panthers​

Will they keep their first-round pick?
Technically, there remains a very slim chance the Panthers make the postseason. And they’ve won a pile of games recently to leave the basement. But with a large gap between them and Columbus/Ottawa/Detroit, it feels far-fetched. What remains at stake is whether or not Florida keeps its pick, as its first-rounder from the Seth Jones trade is top-10 protected. They sit eighth last in the league, right near the line. Adding a good young prospect/asset would be a silver lining from a tough season. — James Mirtle

Vancouver Canucks​

Absolutely nothing
The Canucks have probably sewn up a 32nd-place finish and the best odds of winning the No. 1 pick at the draft lottery. There is nothing performance-wise that any veterans or prospects can accomplish that will dramatically change their value or impact their trajectory. Nothing will change the evaluation of Canucks management, or Adam Foote’s suitability to get a second year as Vancouver’s head coach. The Canucks have pride to play for, and that’s about it. — Thomas Drance


In a season full of disappointments, a strong finish for Easton Cowan would be nice for the Maple Leafs.
Chris Tanouye / Getty Images

Toronto Maple Leafs​

Almost nothing
For better or worse, it feels like the die is already cast for just about everyone with the Leafs. There’s no redeeming going on, given what a disastrous season this has been in Toronto. What would be nice for the Leafs is a strong finish for Easton Cowan. He’s been playing bigger minutes of late after falling out of Craig Berube’s lineup entirely for a spell. This is still an important development time for the 20-year-old. — Jonas Siegel

Calgary Flames​

Draft position
The Flames aren’t making the playoffs. They’ve sold at the deadline and are firmly committed to rebuilding. The biggest question is where they’ll slot at season’s end ahead of the draft lottery. If they can secure a top-three pick, something they’ve never had in their franchise’s history, that brings them so much closer to a game-changing player they’ve craved for so long. — Julian McKenzie

Long shot​

Philadelphia Flyers​

Good feelings
The third year of the new leadership regime is about to conclude, likely without a playoff berth. There’s a chance that the Flyers’ six-year drought will be the longest in the league when the season ends. Patience could start to wear thin with the fan base. But if the Flyers finish strong and some of their young players have an impact, that would help the organization going into next season. Perhaps top prospect Porter Martone even arrives for a few games after his college season is over. — Kevin Kurz

St. Louis Blues​

Nothing
I chose “long shot” because, as we saw with a franchise-record 12-game winning streak that squeezed the Blues into the playoffs last season, you can never count them out. Either way, they’re a team in transition, and no one is getting fired because Alexander Steen will take over for GM Doug Armstrong, and coach Jim Montgomery will stay put. They’ve committed to a youth movement, so core players could be traded this summer. It’s doubtful anything down the stretch will change the plan. — Jeremy Rutherford

Winnipeg Jets​

The best shot at elite talent since 2016
Winnipeg is not a top unrestricted free agent destination. It is frequently cited on no-trade clauses. The Jets must therefore acquire as much top-end talent as possible through the draft. I don’t see a path to the playoffs — and, even if they pull off a miracle stretch run, I don’t see a path through Colorado in Round 1 — so the biggest concern is whether or not the Jets’ first-round pick gives them their next star player. — Murat Ates


The NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer, Alex Ovechkin, hasn’t said whether this season is his last.
Greg Fiume / Getty Images

Washington Capitals​

Alex Ovechkin’s possible exit
Washington’s final games are, at minimum, about getting a glimpse of the post-Ovechkin era (hello, Cole Hutson). When that era begins, though, remains unclear. The NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer hasn’t said whether this season is his last, and the Capitals’ playoff odds are pretty grim. They close the regular season on the road against Columbus, and their final home game is against Pittsburgh. Worth noting. — Sean Gentille

Bubble team​

Boston Bruins​

Nothing
Whatever happens, this season is a win for the Bruins considering how poorly things went in 2024-25. Marco Sturm has been very good as a first-year coach. Don Sweeney made sound pickups in free agency. Jeremy Swayman came back to life. The Bruins are trending up. — Fluto Shinzawa

Columbus Blue Jackets​

Keeping the band together
Since Rick Bowness was hired on Jan. 12, the Blue Jackets are 17-2-4, working their way into the playoff chase. But Bowness hasn’t committed to next season yet, making him arguably their most important pending free agent. The others are prominent names, too: forwards Charlie Coyle, Boone Jenner and Mason Marchment, and defenseman Erik Gudbranson. A playoff berth would set Columbus afire, ending a five-season drought. If those UFAs believe they can win here, resigning them will be that much easier. — Aaron Portzline

Detroit Red Wings​

Public confidence in their direction
This has always been a playoffs-or-bust kind of season in Detroit, and while some recent key injuries have upped the degree of difficulty, they don’t change the stakes. If the Red Wings miss the playoffs for a 10th straight season, it will be hard for fans to remain confident in their direction. Detroit is on a ticking clock to win while it still has Dylan Larkin in his prime, and getting back to the postseason this year feels like an important first step to doing so. — Max Bultman

Nashville Predators​

The last chance to dance for a while
There’s no certainty on where things go from here for the Preds, not with Barry Trotz’s replacement at general manager yet to be hired, but it’s easy to envision a rebuilding period of some length just ahead. After Trotz half-measured the trade deadline by dealing some key contributors but holding back on deals that could have brought back huge returns, the Preds are fighting to sneak into the playoffs. It could be their last for a while. — Joe Rexrode

Seattle Kraken​

A Stanley Cup playoff berth
The Kraken have punched above their weight in Lane Lambert’s first season, buoyed by stellar team defense and unsustainably good goaltending. They’re a hard-working team, and despite a limited ceiling and a lack of true superstar contributors, that gives the Kraken a real opportunity to outlast the Kings, Sharks and Predators to earn the second playoff berth in franchise history. — Thomas Drance

Ottawa Senators​

Their reputation as a team that’s progressing
The Senators need to make the playoffs to continue their upward trajectory as a team. It’s much easier to entice players, whether internally or externally through free agency and trade, to commit long-term to Ottawa if the team is performing well. And if they’re not, it invites more questions (not necessarily from Ottawa) about whether or not current players want to stay. Making the playoffs removes much of that doubt. — Julian McKenzie


Will Anže Kopitar get one last chance to add to his playoff legacy?
Elsa / Getty Images

Los Angeles Kings​

Getting Anže Kopitar to his final postseason
If the Kings sneak into the playoffs, it would bring a small measure of salvage for an underwhelming season. They’re still alive thanks to the Pacific Division being full of flawed teams, and that means their venerable captain and future Hall of Fame center can be sent into retirement by adding to his legacy. A run at a third Stanley Cup is the longest of shots, but the Kings legend deserves it. — Eric Stephens

San Jose Sharks​

Boosting Macklin Celebrini’s Hart Trophy argument
The Sharks weren’t supposed to be in a playoff race and they somehow continue to hang around. Celebrini has carried them while also starring in his first Olympics, so having him in the playoff spotlight as a 19-year-old would cap a monstrous second season. He has more than twice as many points as the next closest San Jose teammate and should have his first 100-point season. San Jose finished last in 2024-25. That’s a pretty good Hart argument. — Eric Stephens

Looks like a good bet​

New York Islanders​

Playoff standing

The Islanders have held firm in the Metro standings for some time, but the Blue Jackets’ run has challenged that, with Columbus now ahead of the Islanders. The odds are in New York’s favor down the stretch, especially with a rookie sensation and one of the best goalies in the world. But the race is tight in the East, so the standings are fluid; the Isles could finish second in the division, stand pat, slip to the wild card or fall out altogether. — Shayna Goldman

Vegas Golden Knights​

A fifth Pacific Division title in nine years
If the Golden Knights finish atop the Pacific Division once again, they will have more regular-season division titles than any team in the NHL since they entered the league in 2017-18. Vegas hasn’t played up to its usual standard this season, but with the division having a down year, the Golden Knights are in a position to continue their reign of dominance over the Pacific, which would set up for a much easier path to the Western Conference final, which they’ve reached four times. — Jesse Granger

Pittsburgh Penguins​

Finishing a dream playoff push
The Penguins entered the season among the favorites to land Gavin McKenna. Instead, they are on pace to finish with more than 100 points. A playoff appearance would give Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang another chance to shine in the postseason spotlight. This marks the 20th straight season they’ve played together for the Penguins, something no trio in the history of North American professional sports has achieved. To reach the playoffs together again would be quite a story. — Josh Yohe

Anaheim Ducks​

Solving what’s wrong with Mason McTavish
The Ducks have a shot at winning the Pacific Division, but no playoff spot is locked up, and they can’t afford to nosedive at the end. They’ve played well in 2026 and added a top-pairing level defenseman in John Carlson. If the Ducks hope to win a playoff series, they must get McTavish going. He’s had a down year and a difficult go of late while being moved off center and was healthy scratched this week. — Eric Stephens

Utah Mammoth​

André Tourigny’s job security
Utah has a nice cushion built for the first wild-card spot in the West. Making the postseason would be an important milestone for head coach Tourigny to prove that he’s still the right voice for this promising young core. Anything short of a playoff appearance would be wildly disappointing for the franchise, considering how much talent they have and how middling the competition for a wild-card spot is. — Harman Dayal

Montreal Canadiens​

The next step in the rebuild
The Canadiens were ahead of schedule when they made the playoffs last season and remain ahead of schedule now, sitting in a playoff spot a month out from the postseason. A late-season nosedive would not be a disaster, but it would be a missed opportunity to fast-track the development of their young core. With a realistic chance for home ice in the first round, it’s an opportunity they need to grasp. — Arpon Basu

It’s a lock​

Buffalo Sabres​

Ending a record drought
The Sabres look like a lock to make the playoffs. But with a league-record 14-year playoff drought, you can bet nobody in that building is going to feel like the job is done until the Sabres have officially clinched. Beyond that, though, the Sabres are battling for seeding down the stretch. They’ve looked like a serious contender the last few months, so home-ice advantage could be critical in the playoffs. — Matthew Fairburn

Carolina Hurricanes​

Preparing for the playoffs
The Hurricanes have little to play for in the season’s final month. They have the biggest cushion of any division leader and currently sit atop the Eastern Conference. Carolina has two objectives heading into the playoffs: secure the best seed it can to maximize home-ice advantage and be healthy come the postseason. Beyond that, expect the team to give some of its young players a look with the big club while resting some veterans. — Cory Lavalette

Edmonton Oilers​

Missing the playoffs is not an option
Despite the loss of Leon Draisaitl for the rest of the regular season, the Oilers still have to make the postseason. The organization has traded all the major draft picks and mortgaged the future. Partly due to deadline additions, the team is playing a more complete, 200-foot game since the deadline, and Connor McDavid remains the best player in hockey. The key question for fans surrounds Draisaitl’s availability come playoff time. — Allan Mitchell

Tampa Bay Lightning​

First in the Atlantic
There may only be four points separating the Lightning from first place and the second wild-card seed, but this team is still very much in contention for the No. 1 seed (even with some recent struggles). Tampa Bay has an elite core to lean on, even though Buffalo took over after a banger matchup in early March. It may come down to their next meeting in early April. — Shayna Goldman

Dallas Stars​

A path to a championship
It looked like Colorado was going to run away with the top seed in the Western Conference, but Dallas’ recent 14-0-1 run has the Stars nipping at the Avalanche’s heels. In a must-win-it-all season, the difference between facing the Minnesota Wild — arguably the third-best team in the league — in the first round and whatever deeply mediocre team finishes in the second wild-card spot is massive. Home-ice advantage for the next round against what would be Colorado or Minnesota matters, too. — Mark Lazerus

Colorado Avalanche​

Avoiding the toughest first-round matchup in the NHL
Regardless of seeding, the team that emerges from the Central Division will have gone through a gauntlet to do so. Having said that, Colorado desperately needs to maintain its ever-shrinking lead over Dallas at the top in order to avoid a Cup Final-caliber matchup with Minnesota in the opening round of the playoffs. Hosting the second wild-card team in the West while Dallas and Minnesota duke it out sounds like a much better recipe for a long playoff run. — Jesse Granger

Minnesota Wild​

Priming to be a serious contender
The reward for the Wild’s terrific season in the great wisdom of this playoff format will be the Stars or the Avalanche. The Wild, who will likely start on the road, hope to get past the first round for the first time in 11 years. But the Wild have a tendency to enter the playoffs with a string of losses and/or serious health issues. As Bill Guerin said after three recent home losses, he doesn’t want the Wild to limp into the playoffs and he wants more urgency. But health is paramount. — Michael Russo