NHL Power Rankings: Who needs to step up for each team after the Olympic break?
The Olympics are a chance to rest up, reflect and recharge for the stretch drive. Some guys really need it after the seasons they’ve had.
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At long last, Olympic hockey is here. We’ve got a very special edition of the Power Rankings coming next week with that in mind, but first we have to wrap a bow on the NHL.
While the best of the best will be suiting up for their country in Milan, the league will be on a three-week break. That offers a chance to rest up, reflect and recharge for the stretch drive. Some guys really need it after the seasons they’ve had. That’s exactly who we’re chronicling for our last set of pre-Milan rankings.
Here’s one player from each team who needs to step up down the stretch after failing to live up to expectations.
1. Tampa Bay Lightning, 37-14-4
Last week: 1Sean: 1
Dom: 1
Victor Hedman
Preseason expectation: Their No. 1 defenseman
What he’s been: Their No. 4 defenseman
Yep, after three games back from his elbow injury, that’s Hedman way down there on the Lightning’s third pair, skating to the left of Declan Carlile. It’s not Hedman’s fault, of course; he’s still good enough to argue that any pair he’s on is the first pair.
Still, the fact that he gets to slum it for a bit is a nice indicator of how well things went in his absence — Darren Raddysh and J.J. Moser, in nearly 600 minutes together, are logging a goal share of 70 percent and an expected goal share of 60 percent. Minutes like that are how you thrive even without your franchise cornerstone.
2. Colorado Avalanche, 37-9-9
Last week: 2Sean: 2
Dom: 2
Cale Makar
First half trend: Another special season
Last month trend: A rare glimpse of ordinary
We had to switch things up for the Avalanche because, well, there isn’t a single player on the team who hasn’t exceeded expectations. Everyone has been that good.
Given the recent swoon, though, there’s room for players to step up and that starts at the top of the lineup. Makar hasn’t looked himself of late, scoring just 12 points in 16 games during the new year while being just average at five-on-five. That’s well below his usual standard and has opened up the Norris Trophy race considerably. Makar was on a tear to start the season. He’s got to get back to that level.
3. Carolina Hurricanes, 36-15-6
Last week: 3Sean: 3
Dom: 3
Nikolaj Ehlers
Preseason expectation: Someone who can bring dynamic offense to a structured team
What he’s been: Someone who’s been assimilated to Hurricanes hockey
Expecting Ehlers to be Mikko Rantanen would’ve been unfair, and complaining all that much about the season he’s having would be, too. Still, he’s scoring goals at his lowest rate since his rookie season in 2015-16 (0.88 goals per 60, down nearly 0.5 from 2024-25), and it’s not because of lower shot volume or crummy luck. He is, however, posting the best shot share and expected goal rate of his career. That’s Carolina, baby!
4. Dallas Stars, 34-14-9
Last week: 5Sean: 4
Dom: 4
Thomas Harley
Preseason expectation: The next elite defenseman
What he’s been: A defensively suspect No. 4
Harley has been better of late; since Jan. 1, Dallas is outscoring opponents 14-11 with him on the ice with an expected goal rate of more than 51 percent. Still, the shape of his overall season hasn’t been great. He was injured early, his Defensive Rating is still sub-zero and his offensive production has dipped, too. As good as the Stars are, they’re going to need last year’s version at some point soon.
5. Minnesota Wild, 34-14-10
Last week: 6Sean: 5
Dom: 5
Jared Spurgeon
Preseason expectation: An underrated two-way presence in the top four
What he’s been: A one-dimensional presence in the top four
All eyes are naturally on Minnesota’s new No. 1 defenseman, so the decline of the Wild’s previous No. 1 defenseman has mostly gone unnoticed. Spurgeon has still been great defensively, but his ability to drive offense has sagged a little too much.
6. Montreal Canadiens, 32-17-8
Last week: 7Sean: 6
Dom: 7
Sam Montembeault
Preseason expectation: A budding star goalie
What he’s been: The reason Montreal isn’t challenging for the division
We liked Montembeault enough to place him in our preseason top 150 — he’d improved for three straight seasons and saved the third most goals above expected in the league last season — but he had his doubters, too. They were correct. Montembeault (.875 save percentage, 3.9 GSAx) has been mediocre at best in his 21 starts, and the Canadiens have won just 10 of them.
7. Buffalo Sabres, 32-19-6
Last week: 4Sean: 8
Dom: 6
Michael Kesselring
Preseason expectation: A top-four presence to solidify the blue line
What he’s been: An oft-injured third-pair option
The Sabres are a wagon and everyone has turned things up a notch, but there are still some elements that have been disappointing. Kesselring’s play and availability have been one of them. His potential top-four presence was a big part of what made the JJ Peterka deal so appetizing and while Josh Doan’s ascent alone has turned that into a win, it would’ve been nice to see Kesselring be that two-way No. 4 we expected. He’s shown brief flashes in between injuries; when he returns, that needs to be more consistent.
8. Pittsburgh Penguins, 29-15-12
Last week: 9Sean: 7
Dom: 8
Rickard Rakell
Preseason expectation: A play-driving top-liner
What he’s been: A capable second-liner
Rakell is still playing with Sidney Crosby, but after a 35-goal 2024-25, his production (0.9 goals per 60) has fallen back in line with his good-not-great career numbers. Nothing wrong with that — and the fact we had to nitpick this much for the Penguins is a sign of how good they’ve been overall.
9. Detroit Red Wings, 33-19-6
Last week: 8Sean: 9
Dom: 10
Marco Kasper
Preseason expectation: The missing pivot piece behind Dylan Larkin
What he’s been: A winger who needs to be carried by Dylan Larkin
There’s no denying that Kasper has been better of late, specifically since being moved to the top line. But on a surprise team without many options, he’s still the one who needs to elevate after the break. Given the opportunity he has next to Larkin, we want to see more from a guy many expected to be a core piece.
10. Columbus Blue Jackets, 29-20-7
Last week: 17Sean: 10
Dom: 11
Kent Johnson
Preseason expectation: A budding core piece
What he’s been: A slumping non-factor
We didn’t expect Johnson to shoot 20 percent for the rest of his life, as he did last season, but his falloff (1.22 goals per 60 to 0.48) has been … excessive, let’s say. Johnson has been better under Rick Bowness, with six points in 11 games alongside strong play-driving numbers. Columbus needs more of that.