Sabres mailbag, part 1: Reasons for optimism, Pegula’s buy-in, Tuch’s contract
Let’s try to unpack some of the questions that are top of mind for Sabres fans as training camp approaches.
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The Buffalo Bills’ season is underway, and the Buffalo Sabres won’t play a regular-season game for another month. But our call for questions for this Sabres mailbag still generated 146 comments as of this writing. Sabres fans still have strong feelings about this team despite the 14 years of losing they’ve endured.
We’ll tackle this mailbag in multiple parts as we start to get ready for training camp. The Sabres’ prospects will begin practicing on Wednesday, Sept. 10, and the veterans are expected to get rolling about a week later. Then we’ll start to get a feel for what this team is going to look like in Lindy Ruff’s second season as coach and Kevyn Adams’ sixth season as general manager. Until then, let’s try to unpack some of the questions that are top of mind for fans.
Note: Submitted questions may be edited for clarity and style.
Even for longtime fans, the upcoming season is sparse on reasons for legitimate hope when the status quo among the front office, coaching staff and the majority of the roster is the same, but, in your opinion, what are the top three reasons for Sabres fans to believe this season will end with a playoff appearance? — Torsten S.
The Sabres are coming off one of the most painful seasons of the 14-year drought and didn’t generate a lot of buzz with big-name acquisitions this summer. So I don’t blame anyone for feeling pessimistic or lacking enthusiasm for the upcoming seasons. While there are plenty of lingering questions about this group, I don’t think the playoffs are entirely out of the question in an Eastern Conference that’s a bit weaker than it has been in recent years.
If I had to list three reasons for optimism, one would be that Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin have more to give. If Thompson can get back to his 90-point level, that could be a game-changer for this team. And assuming Dahlin doesn’t deal with a back injury minutes into his first practice, he could be even better than he was a year ago. This team won’t go anywhere without those two playing like stars, and I believe they have another gear.
The second reason I can think of is the additions of Josh Doan and Michael Kesselring. They aren’t the flashiest names, but both should raise the level of Buffalo’s team defense and be positive influences on the culture. I do think they became a better team as a result of that trade.
The third reason is the one I touched on, but I don’t think the rest of the Eastern Conference is as formidable as it has been. Ottawa and Montreal made it into the playoffs last season. Both are theoretically ahead of the Sabres in the pecking order, but if there’s a gap, I don’t think it’s a big one. Teams like the Rangers and Bruins aren’t going away, but it shouldn’t be this hard for the Sabres to just sneak into the playoffs. Ruff had the Sabres playing better at the end of the season. If that’s any indication of how they’ll play this season, they should be more competitive. I’m not going to sit here and tell you this is a surefire playoff team, but I do think the team is better than the one the Sabres started the season with a year ago. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn had the Sabres as one of the NHL’s most improved teams this offseason. And @JFreshHockey projected the Sabres to make the playoffs with 93 points. So analytics are on Buffalo’s side. For now.
Wouldn’t it be prudent for Keyvn Adams to sign his prize acquisition from the JJ Peterka trade, Kesselring, “ASAP “before he costs a lot more in subsequent seasons? — Dwight D.
It would be prudent, but two things could stand in the way. The first is that Kesselring has to want to sign that type of contract. He hasn’t gotten familiar with this organization yet or spent much time in the city. He’s about to get his first real chance to play in an elevated role. His price could be going up, so he might not be eager to put pen to paper. He’s also scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2027, so he has to take that into consideration when deciding whether to sign his next contract here.
The other factor here is whether Adams has the conviction and runway to make an aggressive and proactive contract offer for some of these players on expiring contracts. Last season, with a long list of restricted free agents, Adams didn’t sign any of them in-season. Kesselring, Doan and Zach Benson are all restricted free agents next summer and all look like pieces of this team’s future. So getting some of that business handled early could be beneficial.
All of that said, you’re right that trading away a premium asset like Peterka should motivate Adams to lock up both players from that trade as soon as possible.
What is the cost of replacing seats in an arena like KBC? Has there been any indication that the organization is aware that fans aren’t fond of sitting in seats that are duct taped together? — Tyler V.
The Sabres know the seats are a problem for fans. COO Pete Guelli recently said, “Candidly, one of the things we’re waiting on is, ‘What are we doing long-term?’ Before we go in and put a whole swath of brand-new seats, it doesn’t make as much sense until we know what we’re doing with the building long-term. But it’s something that’s definitely on the radar.”
As for what it would cost, the DCU Center in Worcester, Mass., did a $7 million renovation in 2023 that included replacing all 12,000 seats. That renovation also included enhancing the rigging, replacing the sound system and improving the cell service, but the seats were the bulk of that cost. KeyBank Center has more than 19,000 seats, and the exact cost of replacing them would depend on the quality of seats they chose and how many seats they wanted to replace. But that $7 million figure at least gives a jumping-off point for estimating the cost.
Is there any chance of Kevyn Adams losing his job if they are out (of the playoff race) by Christmas? — Joseph F.
I would have said no before the Sabres hired Jarmo Kekäläinen. But I think Kekäläinen’s presence gives Terry Pegula a strong interim candidate to turn to if the season goes south. If the team is out of contention by Christmas, it would be negligent to let Adams handle another trade deadline. Adams is in the final year of his contract, so I tend to think Pegula would prefer to let him see that through if the results allow for it. He hasn’t done an in-season firing of a head coach or general manager for either team since he fired Ralph Krueger in 2021, and that was a painfully obvious move.
How long does Lindy give UPL before he replaces him with Alex Lyon? Is there a win or save percentage he would need to keep the starter’s net? And if he falls flat, are they forced to bring Levi up again? — Sabrina C.
I don’t think Ruff will have a lot of patience if Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen struggles out of the gate. He saw late last season what steady goaltending did for the Sabres, and he wasn’t afraid to lean on James Reimer to get it. If Lyon can play that well, he could earn a 50-50 split very early in the season. The Sabres don’t have time to wait around and go through early-season struggles. They need to have urgency from game one, and the best way for Ruff to show that is by making everyone, including Luukkonen, earn ice time.
Terry Pegula has been a willing spender when it comes to the NFL’s Bills. (Mark Konezny / USA Today)
Why won’t the Pegulas go all-in like they do with the Bills? — Doug F.
The simple answer is that the Bills make money hand over fist, so it’s a lot easier to go all-in on the Bills. According to Forbes, the Bills accounted for $585 million in revenue last year and $104 million in operating income. The Sabres accounted for $169 million in revenue and $13 million in operating income. The positive figure in operating income is a welcome change from the years of the Sabres losing money. The reality is, Pegula has spent a lot of money on the Bills, between the stadium, the guaranteed money for Josh Allen’s latest extension and everything else that goes into running that team. He also got some minority investors, which helps. And the state kicked in a nice chunk of change for the stadium. But it’s plain to see the Sabres have taken a back seat financially. They aren’t as lucrative a business.
Part of that, of course, is because the Sabres aren’t winning. Sold-out crowds and home playoff games would generate additional revenue. Would more spending result in wins for the Sabres? Probably. But Pegula used to spend wildly on the hockey side, too. When he first bought the team, Pegula spared no expense in trying to build a winner. That didn’t work either. So now he’s trying to build it with the effective, efficient and economic model he outlined in 2020. Maybe the spending will return if the Sabres make the playoffs again one day. We’ve seen an uptick in player spending in the last year. And Pegula did pay for a new roof and video board last summer, so it’s not as if he’s totally ignoring the Sabres. But when Terry Pegula dissolved Pegula Sports and Entertainment two years ago, part of that was “separating resources between the Buffalo Bills and Buffalo Sabres, allowing each respective organization to focus singularly on their efforts.” So the Bills’ cash isn’t the Sabres’ cash. The business realities of the Sabres make them more of a budget operation.
If Pegula sells the Sabres, how realistic is it that they stay in Buffalo? — Aidan O.
Not very. Ask yourself how many people who can afford to purchase an NHL team would have the motivation to keep the team in Buffalo? That would take a unique buyer, and I’m not sure that person exists. The on-ice struggles are one thing, but the arena questions and the sagging attendance in recent years would be enough for any buyer to be motivated to find a bigger market. So, while I understand those frustrated with Pegula’s tenure as owner of this team, the calls for him to sell it don’t make sense to me because there would be a real risk of Buffalo not having a team if he did that. That said, the NHL seems more interested in expansion than relocation at this point. That’s a good thing for Buffalo.
At what point would you say it’s time to worry if Alex Tuch has not signed an extension? — Mike C.
I would hold off on truly worrying about an Alex Tuch extension until the season starts. If Tuch starts playing games in the final season of his contract, I think it’s fair to have some anxiety. He’s been open to signing an extension, and I believe it will get done. But if negotiations drag into the season, will he have second thoughts if he’s still unsigned and the team gets off to another bad start? That’s a big distraction to have hanging over a team that hasn’t handled distractions all that well in recent years. You can debate how deep into his 30s Tuch will be able to maintain his level of play. But you can’t debate what he means to this team, locker room and community right now and for the next five years at least. The Sabres don’t have a lot of leverage in this situation and need to get a deal done sooner rather than later. Tuch is too important.