Sabres vs. Bruins prediction: 7 key thoughts on Buffalo’s series against Boston
How do the Sabres and Bruins stack up? Here are a few key questions and factors we’re watching.
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Buffalo went 1-1-2 in four games against Boston in 2025-26. Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images
As the Boston Bruins wrapped up their 4-0 win over the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday to lock in the Buffalo Sabres as their Round 1 opponent, the crowd at TD Garden in Boston started chanting, “We want Buffalo!”
They’re getting them. The Sabres and Bruins will drop the puck in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs this weekend, with the first two games coming in Buffalo, which hasn’t hosted a playoff game since 2011.
The Sabres had their regular-season finale on Wednesday against the Stars, but Sabres coach Lindy Ruff conceded before the game that the entirety of their focus was on the Bruins and preparing for that matchup.
How do the Sabres and Bruins stack up? Here are a few key questions and factors we’re watching.
Will experience matter?
The easy talking point for the Sabres, who haven’t been to the playoffs in 15 years, is the relative lack of postseason experience on their roster. If you look at the 23 players who are likely to dress in Game 1 for each team, the Bruins have 599 games of cumulative playoff experience compared to 276 for the Sabres. Buffalo came into the season as one of the youngest teams in the NHL, and a few of the team’s top contributors haven’t played in the playoffs. Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin haven’t appeared in the postseason, but both have played in the Olympics, and Thompson helped Team USA win the gold medal. That could count for something.Among Buffalo’s top players, Alex Tuch (66 games), Bowen Byram (27 games), Jason Zucker (52 games) and Ryan McLeod (56 games) bring the bulk of the playoff experience. Byram is the only one in that group who has won the Stanley Cup, and he did so while playing a major role as a 20-year-old during Colorado’s run in 2022. Depth players like Jordan Greenway, Beck Malenstyn, Conor Timmins and Logan Stanley have some experience in the postseason, too. And the Sabres added Stanley Cup winners Tanner Pearson and Luke Schenn at the deadline to bring some veteran wisdom to the locker room.
By comparison, though, the Bruins have top-end players who have been through the playoffs before. Boston’s big three of David Pastrnak (90 games), Charlie McAvoy (70 games) and Jeremy Swayman (20 games) have all played in big moments. But Ruff sees the consistency his team played with over the last four months and doesn’t sweat the playoff experience going into the weekend.
“You could say maybe the inexperience would hurt us down stretch, but you look at what that group did, and we we were under pressure and under the gun to maintain a high level of play, and we were able to maintain a high enough level of play to end up where we ended up at the end of the year,” Ruff said. “The only way to get experience is to do what we did in the regular season to get there, and those are the guys that got us there. I believe in our group, and some of them are younger, some of them have a little bit of experience. But they handled all the pressure situations. When we needed to win games, the group came up.”
One thing that could work in Buffalo’s favor is that Ruff has a clear edge in postseason experience over Marco Sturm. It also helps that the Sabres will play the first two games of this series at home, getting a chance to adjust to postseason hockey with the help of a rowdy Buffalo crowd.
The goaltending edge
The Bruins’ five-on-five expected goal share of 46 percent is the worst among teams that qualified for the playoffs. They are able to overcome it because they have one of the best goalies in the NHL in Swayman.Swayman has started 18 playoff games in his career and played in 20. His goals-against average in those games is 2.38, and his save percentage is .922. During 12 games in the 2023-24 playoffs, Swayman led the NHL in goals saved above expected. If the Bruins get that version of Swayman during the playoffs, he could make life difficult on the high-scoring Sabres.
On paper, the Bruins have the goaltending advantage. But Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is capable of making that closer than some might expect. Luukkonen played 20 fewer games than Swayman and played behind a better defense, but he had an edge in both save percentage and goals against average. Among goalies who played at least 35 games, Swayman was first in the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60, according to Money Puck. Luukkonen was ninth. Luukkonen has never played in a postseason game, so that’s a big question mark entering the playoffs. He’s also a major reason the Sabres are here and could be the most important variable that determines how far this team goes. Alex Lyon has been injured but could be ready to back up by the weekend. He gives the Sabres a legitimate 1B option to turn to if Luukkonen falters.
Two high-end finishing teams
The Sabres and Bruins are two of the better finishing teams in the NHL. The Sabres had a five-on-five shooting percentage of 10.65 during the regular season, while the Bruins were at 10.62. Those numbers ranked fifth and sixth in the NHL. In a seven-game series, if a few shooters get hot on either side, it could swing things. The Bruins have two elite scorers that the Sabres need to be mindful of in David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie. Geekie is shooting at over 20 percent this season, while Pastrnak has leveled up as a playmaker.The Sabres, meanwhile, are deep with scoring threats. Thompson led the way with 40 goals, but the Sabres also had five players hit 20 goals. Zucker, Tuch and Josh Doan give Buffalo an edge when it comes to secondary scoring. The Sabres’ middle six should give them an advantage in this series. And there’s no comparison when it comes to the offense the Sabres get from their blue line compared to what the Bruins get. The Sabres’ defensemen turn the team into a group that is tough to read in the offensive zone. Scoring can come from anywhere. Dahlin had 74 points in 77 games this season, including 19 goals. Byram (13 goals), Mattias Samuelsson (11 goals) and Owen Power (eight goals) are all capable of creating offense, too. That’s why the Sabres were a top-five scoring team in the NHL this season, ranking fourth in goals at five-on-five.
Both of these teams were top five in PDO, indicating the strength of their goaltending and shooting talent. The question for Buffalo is whether Luukkonen can help neutralize some of Boston’s high-end finishers and whether they can get enough out of their third pair on defense to keep the Bruins in check. And the question for the Bruins is whether they can handle the speed and transition game the Sabres play. Swayman can’t do it all. The Sabres were top five in the NHL in speed bursts of 18-20 miles per hour and 20-22 miles per hour, according to NHL Edge data. The Bruins were 32nd and 31st, respectively, in those categories.
Is there a special teams edge?
The Bruins had the ninth-ranked power play in the NHL this season, while the Sabres had the fourth-ranked penalty kill. Meanwhile, the Sabres’ power play, which enters the postseason on a 0-22 slump, ranked 19th in the league. The Bruins rank 24th on the penalty kill. Special teams can easily swing a series, and this one could go either way. I’d rather have the power play that is clicking, but the Sabres have gotten on a few hot streaks this season with the man advantage. Maybe Boston’s below-average penalty kill will help the Sabres get rolling.Which fourth line will have a bigger impact?
Sean Kuraly, Tanner Jeannot and Mark Kastelic make up an imposing fourth line for the Bruins. They play a heavy game, with both Jeannot and Kastelic finishing the season with over 200 hits each. Kuraly brings plenty of playoff experience to the table, and that group is capable of scoring at times, too. In the rare times Buffalo’s defensemen have struggled this season, breakouts tend to be an issue. If the Bruins can bring a heavy forecheck to a younger blue line that hasn’t been playoff tested, that could swing momentum throughout games.Meanwhile, Buffalo’s fourth line has been much improved this season, led by Malenstyn. The Sabres have a few different combinations they can go with on that bottom group, but Greenway and Tyson Kozak could get the first shot based on late-season lineups. Missing Sam Carrick due to injury hurts that line, but it’s still a line with a lot of speed that is capable of handling tough defensive matchups.
What about the middle six?
We know Boston’s fourth line is a handful, and the top-end scoring talent of Pastrnak and Geekie is dangerous. But can the Sabres find an edge in the middle six? McLeod and Josh Norris went through slumps in production later in the year but seem to be finding their game again in time for the playoffs. Zucker and Doan have been consistent producers in big moments for the Sabres this season, while Zach Benson has the type of game that translates to the postseason, given his willingness to battle and his vision to make plays in tight areas. Jack Quinn also quietly put up 20 goals this season. He needs to show that he can handle the tighter and rougher game that is coming in the playoffs, but he’s capable of scoring from anywhere in the offensive zone with his shot.With Pavel Zacha and Viktor Arvidsson, the Bruins have some middle-six players capable of matching up against the Sabres’ top lines and providing secondary scoring punch. But the Sabres have a lot of balance in their top three lines, so picking matchups won’t be easy. The Bruins’ youngsters like James Hagens, Fraser Minten and Marat Khusnutdinov will have to come through in big spots.
How rough will this series get?
The Bruins have some heavyweights on their team, including Jeannot, Kastelic and Nikita Zadorov. While the Sabres have an advantage in skill, the Bruins will try to lean into their edge as the heavier and nastier of the two teams. And while the Sabres aren’t likely to win a bare-knuckle boxing match against the Bruins, they also aren’t going to be easily pushed around, either. They showed that against the Lightning back in March. And the addition of Stanley, along with Greenway getting healthy, has added another layer of toughness to Buffalo’s lineup. That’s still an aspect of this series worth watching, though, considering the Sabres’ lack of playoff experience.Conclusion: There was a significant gap between these two teams in the standings this season. But the Sabres being a playoff newcomer introduces an element of the unknown. This series could come down to how quickly the Sabres adjust to playoff hockey. They have the talent to win the series, but I don’t expect the Bruins to go down easily.
Prediction: Sabres in seven.