Not every question makes the cut. We have a standard around here.
The best collection is assembled, but talent alone won’t be enough. It’s a matter of spirit, of desire, of pride.
From this privileged gathering, profound answers arise.
There are mailbags, and then there’s The Satchel.
Tim, doesn’t this feel like a “transition” year for the Bills? I feel like this team will be up and down and may make the playoffs, but I do not know if we will be able to do any damage. — Matt K.
I’ve been calling it a soft reset. Yes, there have been several big-name departures. Top receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis, center Mitch Morse and safeties Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer — all of them captains — are gone. Each absence, however, can be rationalized. Buffalo won without Diggs through the second half of last season. Davis too often was a statistical non-entity. Morse owned a big contract and has a concussion history. Hyde and Poyer have skeletons that are grinding into dust.
Much of that leadership will be missed. Diggs doesn’t fall into that category, of course. We can tell in the way franchise quarterback Josh Allen heaped praise when asked about most of the above. Allen this offseason would go on and on about how much Morse and the safeties meant to the Bills’ culture. Then, when asked about Diggs, Allen would utter something brief and diplomatic. And think back to when the Bills traded Diggs. How many of his former teammates posted fond farewells on social media?
To your point about an “up and down” campaign, I agree there will be growing pains. Connor McGovern’s transition from left guard to center will be integral to the offensive line’s overall performance. The wideout collection has to hit the ground running in Week 1. New defensive leaders must emerge.
We’ll know by mid- to late-October what these Bills are made of. That’s how long it takes for any team to establish its identity, even those undergoing minor changes.
As for my thoughts on Buffalo in the playoffs, that answer awaits along with the lint and crumbs in the bottom of The Satchel.
Set our expectations for Keon Coleman. True WR1, solid WR2 or just another guy? — Ralph S.
Let’s first establish some sort of definition. The term “No. 1 wide receiver” gets thrown around willy-nilly, is open to some interpretation and frequently is misapplied. In a classic sense, these game-changers demand double-teams, can stretch the field and regularly make contested catches. Maybe eight such wideouts exist in the league today.
No. 1 receiver is a status, not merely the team’s best target. The Chiefs have won a lot of games without a true No. 1 receiver. When Golden Tate led all Lions receivers in 2014 and 2015, was he their No. 1 or was Calvin “Megatron” Johnson? Was it Wes Welker or Randy Moss during the Patriots’ record-breaking 2007 campaign? Some don’t consider CeeDee Lamb a traditional No. 1 receiver because he lines up in the slot; yet he led the NFL with 135 catches.
I won’t rule out Coleman developing into a true No. 1 threat. He possesses the size at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds. His athleticism is bananas. He clocked a so-so 4.61 seconds in the 40-yard dash, but he can line up outside and inside and has sensational hands.
Coleman looked fabulous all summer, but I need to address the controversial end-zone incompletion against the Steelers. On second-and-4 from the 8-yard line, Coleman lined up wide left with cornerback Darius Rush heads up. Coleman ran a slant. Mitchell Trubisky’s throw was slightly off target and required Coleman to expose his torso as safety Jalen Elliott closed hard. The ball hit Coleman’s outstretched hand before he curled into a defensive posture to avoid Elliott. Buffalo eventually kicked a field goal.
Business decisions in a preseason game can be sensible, but I don’t believe Coleman had enough time to think that way. Trubisky’s throw could have been better, though it was grabbable. The play was bang-bang, too quick to process consequences aside from what should have been “catch ball, score touchdown.”
Letting the ball get past him isn’t an indictment of a superbly talented, 33rd-overall draft choice. Coleman’s health is important, and in the grand scheme an exhibition touchdown is not.
But in that moment I would prefer to see a baller instinct flash.
When will we be blessed with the sight of Josh Allen pinwheeling through the sky, arms stretched high as he mosses a perplexed rookie corner off a perfect spiral thrown by Reggie Gilliam? Roughly translated: When is Buffalo going to bring back trick plays? I miss the creativity. — G N.
You and me both, G. The Bills with Brian Daboll calling plays was perhaps the NFL’s most entertaining offense. That evaporated when Ken Dorsey took over.
I wrote about the dichotomy last November, when the Bills were playing like zombies:
The game after I wrote that, Buffalo dropped to 5-5 with an embarrassing, overtime, home loss to Denver on “Monday Night Football.” Dorsey was fired the next morning.
My story detailed how important having fun is to player engagement and, by extension, success. Daboll knew that. Dorsey either didn’t realize that, didn’t feel comfortable in his first OC gig or simply didn’t agree.
Does current offensive coordinator Joe Brady?
In his 28 games with the Panthers, I found one trick play. It happened in 2020, his first year with the Panthers.
With a 7-0 lead early in the third quarter, Brady called a reverse pass on first down from the Lions’ 24-yard line. Curtis Samuel, now with the Bills, lined up in the backfield and took a handoff toward the left end but pitched to receiver D.J. Moore, running the other way. Moore’s short pass skipped to quarterback P.J. Walker.
That was the lone non-QB throw and the lone unusual target over Brady’s Carolina career.
Brady didn’t get overly exotic in his nine games with Buffalo last year. In the second quarter of Brady’s first game, on first down from the Jets’ 23-yard line, he tried receiver Deonte Harty on an end around that lost 2 yards. In Week 17, the call was a shotgun handoff to Diggs on second-and-4 from New England’s 8-yard line while down 7-3 in the first quarter. The play picked up a first down.
What are the vibes of the coaching staff and players? Is there internal optimism, or are people around the building pessimistic about the upcoming year? Are players aware of the “Bills gonna take a step back,” narrative that’s going around the media and fan landscape? — Nick P.
I haven’t sensed any pessimism or angst around the team, not at St. John Fisher University during training camp and not at One Bills Drive the past few weeks. I’ve interviewed a bunch of players, chatted with them off the record and been around coaches and staff. They’ve been a pretty chill bunch. Even struggling kicker Tyler Bass.
Pressure exists, to be sure. Sean McDermott’s job isn’t on the line, but a vocal horde wants him gone yesterday and craves a Super Bowl appearance before Allen’s prime depletes. Brandon Beane isn’t going anywhere either, but he rolled the dice by trading Diggs and moving on from the other leaders.
Allen has more responsibility than ever, and the Bills are aware of what’s being said. They’ve rallied around any notion their franchise quarterback might not have the wherewithal to shoulder the load. Beane scoffed at an unnamed NFL executive who told ESPN that Allen is overrated. After ESPN this week released an anonymous players’ poll that called Allen the NFL’s most overrated quarterback (and also the fourth-best at the position), he acknowledged it on social media by reveling in the votes that also ranked him the best trash talker.
Bobby Babich is in his first season as defensive coordinator, and he won’t have star linebacker Matt Milano for a few months, if at all, because of biceps surgery. Graybeard edge rusher Von Miller needs to show he’s not taking up too much precious salary-cap space that could have been spent more efficiently. The defensive backfield must jell without Hyde’s and Poyer’s wisdom to guide it.
Yet these are the kinds of stressful unknowns and distractions good teams navigate all the time. I’ve been covering big-league sports for 25 years, and I haven’t detected any unwarranted agita this summer.
The Bills aren’t in danger of relocating at least through the end of the lease of the new stadium, for which owner Terry Pegula received $850 million in public money. (Mark Konezny / USA Today)
Who owns the Bills five years from now? Does Terry Pegula have a succession plan that prioritizes Buffalo over Austin? — Andrew G.
The Pegula family will own the Bills five years from now and probably for decades. His kids want the team, and the new stadium’s lease agreement will keep it there. But there are zero guarantees about the Bills staying in Western New York beyond that.
We’ve been forced to guess about a succession plan, especially with Pegula refusing to grant interviews or provide any germane insight.
Pegula had no qualms about accepting $850 million in public money to help build the stadium, $300 million (adjusted for inflation) from the state over 30 years for stadium upkeep or revenues he will collect directly from fans through personal seat licenses.
Pegula hasn’t felt compelled to discuss those transactions with the public. He has not answered questions in a news conference of any kind since naming Kevyn Adams the Sabres’ general manager in June 2020 and hasn’t answered Bills questions since the NFL owners meetings in March 2019.
Granted, anxiety over his wife’s medical condition has played a part in Pegula’s aversion to sitting for an interview. She suffered a debilitating cardiac arrest in June 2022. But the Bills’ official website posted a poignant video of Kim Pegula at training camp, so it appears the family is comfortable enough to acknowledge her health now.
But he still won’t address the public’s and the fans’ subsidies of his sports teams. Or explain from his own mouth why he didn’t want to build in the city or include a dome or why the PSLs are so expensive, for that matter.
Please, respect Terry Pegula’s privacy at this difficult time of harvesting your money.
Any information you can share on how the PSL sales are going so far? — Adam H.
To hear the Bills and their contracted PSL pushers, Legends, tell it: The process has gone swimmingly.
To hear fans tell it: They feel betrayed and wounded by what the Bills are doing to them. I am not a season ticket holder, so I’m going only on information being shared by those who personally have gone through the process. And, believe me, strangers aren’t shy about coming up to me and unloading about their experience.
In addition to first-time PSLs and soaring season-ticket prices, some are discovering their seats vanishing because capacity at the new stadium is decreasing or because luxury upgrades are overtaking their sections. They show screenshots of invoices steeper than a college education. They tell me how depressing the sticker shock is and how callous the sales tactics are. I’ve heard from a dozen season-ticket holders who’ve relayed the same tale: When they balk at the price, they’re essentially told, “We have other people who will take your seats anyway.”
One longtime and well-known fan — she asked me not to include her name, but most Bills fans on social media would know her — said that after her PSL presentation at the Bills Stadium Experience, she went home and puked.
Sounds like the PSL rollout is going about as well as fans feared. But this is what comes with keeping an NFL team in the 21st century, sadly.
Hi, Tim. Thanks for all the great work. Just a couple of questions for you: 1. What is your take on Tyler Bass’ reliability concerns? 2. If unresolved quickly, could this issue force coach to go for it more often on 4th down? Thanks again, Go Bills. – Tim M.
Always great to hear from a fellow Tim. I’m grateful for your kind words.
That said, I wag a finger in your general direction! I just wrote about Bass and his potential yips.
To summarize, it’s a serious problem, and I’ve been saying so for months. The only positions for which the Bills declined to bring in competition were long snapper and kicker. Over a month ago, I named Bass my “one big question” heading into training camp.
The Bills have begun to acknowledge the ongoing issue. Bass missed 16 of the 25 field-goal attempts the media saw at practice since training camp started. Bass tried only two longer than an extra point, converting from 49 yards and missing from 51 yards Saturday, eliciting pointed words from McDermott.
“T-Bass needs to get back to where he was as a rookie,” special-teams legend Steve Tasker said Tuesday on the team’s “One Bills Live” radio show. “Remember he had the single eye black? He had an attitude, and he banged it.
“It’s in there. I think his problems are more between the ears than they are anything physical — if, indeed, he perceives there is a problem.”
Was it really necessary for the Bills to trade an asset for an undrafted player they could’ve just claimed off waivers, or even just signed for nothing a couple months ago? (Or they could’ve just drafted him, instead of an offensive lineman who has never played a down of football in his life and will never see an NFL field.) Seems like a desperation move. And everybody spare me the “it was a late-round-pick swap” comeback. Did the Chiefs, Ravens, Bengals or any other good teams swap picks for an undrafted player they could’ve just had a few months ago? (Didn’t think so.) – Tyler H.
I’ll assume you’re referring to the Bills trading a 2026 sixth-round draft choice to the Jets for return specialist and cornerback Brandon Codrington and a 2026 seventh-round pick. You’re correct that a sixth-round pick has value and that Codrington was an undrafted rookie from North Carolina Central, and the Jets probably would’ve waived him.
But let’s take a deep breath here.
You’re talking about borderline throwaway picks, and they won’t turn into actual humans for two years. Those actual humans usually are practice squad players at best, especially on a contending team.
Buffalo’s scouting department, meanwhile, saw three games’ worth of the 5-foot-9 Codrington against NFL prospects instead of just Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference opponents.
With the Jets, he returned two kickoffs for 75 yards and six punts for 83 yards, with four fair catches. Codrington also played 70 defensive snaps, making seven tackles and breaking up a pass.
Perhaps more notable, the Bills got to examine 49 NFL preseason games with the new kickoff rules and an entire summer of their players struggling to do the job. They’ve gained massive amounts of data and filed dozens more scouting reports on players they might consider for a new, potentially decisive facet of the game.
And if Buffalo really wanted Codrington, then it’s likely another team also had eyes on him. As a player with fewer than four accrued NFL seasons, Codrington would have been subject to waivers. Twenty-seven teams could have claimed him first.
On a related note, the Colts on Tuesday waived three of the nine players they drafted in April: fifth-round cornerback Jaylin Simpson, sixth-round cornerback Micah Abraham and seventh-round defensive tackle Jonah Laulu.
In your opinion, what is the number of regular-season wins and/or playoff wins McDermott needs in 2024 to secure his job for another season? Also, could you see Bill Belichick as a potential Bills coach should things not work out for McD? – Ryan S.
I find it amusing whenever I see a columnist or betting analyst include McDermott on a “hot seat” list. He’s among the NFL’s safest coaches. McDermott reports directly to Pegula, who adores him. McDermott and Beane basically came in together, established a culture true to their vision and pulled the Bills out of their 17-year abyss. They’re tethered.
So how many wins for McDermott to keep his job? I don’t know, two or three? I can’t foresee a legitimate situation where such a catastrophic record would fall solely on McDermott’s neck.
For the sake of this exercise, though, McDermott would need to get caught doing something so scandalous to force Pegula’s hand. That in itself would be a shock.
Your opinion please on this equation: Sean McDermott = Marty Schottenheimer. – Robert H.
As a native Clevelander whose fondest and most gut-wrenching Browns memories involve Schottenheimer as head coach, I understand the comparison. Schottenheimer might be the greatest coach never to win a Super Bowl, his postseason failures infamous.
Schottenheimer ranks eighth in NFL history with 200 regular-season victories. Among coaches with at least 300 games, his .631 win percentage ranks seventh. Only Don Shula, Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Tom Landry and Paul Brown reached the postseason more often.
But Schottenheimer went 5-13 in the playoffs, never reaching a Super Bowl in 21 seasons as head coach.
McDermott is entering his eighth season. He has a .640 win percentage, highest in Buffalo history. He is second to Marv Levy in regular-season victories, but McDermott is 5-6 in the playoffs.
McDermott already owns as many playoff wins as Schottenheimer in a third of the time and has a long way to go to match Schottenheimer’s lifetime of Lombardi Trophy futility. McDermott’s career still is a work in progress, and those Bills fans who want to dump him should consider how Schottenheimer’s successors fared.
Cleveland replaced him with Bud Carson. Kansas City replaced him with Gunther Cunningham. Washington replaced him with Steve Spurrier. San Diego, after Schottenheimer went 14-2 and lost to the New England dynasty by three points in the playoffs, replaced him with Norv Turner.
The first three successors went a combined 39-49-1 in the regular season, with none lasting longer than two years and only Carson making the playoffs before getting fired his second year. Turner went 56-40 over six seasons and made the playoffs just thrice, going 3-3.
None of the four coaches reached a Super Bowl as a head coach their entire careers. Three of those franchises haven’t gotten to a Super Bowl since. The Chiefs finally got there 21 years — and six coaches — after Schottenheimer’s exit.
Will the Bills make the playoffs? – Michael B.
Yes, they will. They remain the AFC East’s best team. I’m confident the Bills will navigate their soft reset without digging themselves a hole like they did last year (Allen hopefully won’t entertain that “low positive” baloney anymore). They already proved they can win without Diggs. They have traversed numerous defensive injuries in the past and still fielded one of the NFL’s best units.
The Bills will be very good.
As for the rest of the division, let’s eliminate the Patriots right out. The other two teams will be interesting, but have a lot of ground to make up to contend for the crown.
I know what I’m about to type about the Jets isn’t sophisticated, but Aaron Rodgers will need to show he’s still competent before I can fathom them being a true threat. The Jets always do Jets things. Great defense, though.
The Dolphins are 2-13 against the Bills since McDermott became coach and are a couple dropped passes away from being oh-fer. Miami has a nuclear offense, but at least on paper got substantially worse on defense because of salary-cap constraints, losing game-wrecking defensive tackle Christian Wilkins and outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel. Top edge rusher Bradley Chubb will miss the first Buffalo matchup while on the physically unable to perform list.