Through 10 games last season, the Sabres were 5-5-0 with 10 points in the standings. This season, with a new coach and some new bottom-six forwards, the Sabres are a point worse at the 10-game mark with a 4-5-1 record.
But is this team under Lindy Ruff different? Is the ceiling higher than what the Sabres showed last season when they missed the playoffs? Now that we’re through the first month of Buffalo’s schedule, here’s what I think and what I know about the 2024-25 version of the Sabres.
What I think: Buffalo will hang in the playoff picture. It’s been an up-and-down start to the season for the Sabres. They’ve had ugly moments like their 0-2 start in Prague and sloppy games against the Penguins and Blue Jackets.
But even without playing their best hockey yet, the metrics show they’ve been an average team. They are 15th in the NHL in expected goal percentage and 14th in scoring chance percentage at five-on-five. Their team save percentage at five-on-five is 17th, while their five-on-five shooting percentage is sixth in the league. Basically, they’ve earned the results they’ve gotten to this point in the season.
So why do I think a team with average results will hang in the playoff picture? For one, that three-game winning streak was a sign this team might not be as susceptible to the emotional swings of the NHL season. I attribute that to Ruff’s demeanor, the natural maturation of some of Buffalo’s younger players and the addition of more veterans in the locker room. This feels like a team that will be able to better handle the ebbs and flows of the season and not fall too far behind in the playoff race. They’ve been better at suppressing high-danger chances against and have generated offense with only two goals coming from the power play and hardly anything coming from their second line. They have the potential to be better than what they’ve shown. That might not be good enough to get into the postseason, but I don’t envision this team bottoming out.
What I know: Tage Thompson is back to playing like a No. 1 center, and that’s great news for the Sabres. After battling through a wrist injury last season, Thompson is 100 percent healthy and it’s showing up in the results. Even after he failed to record a shot on goal against the Panthers on Monday, the Sabres are still controlling 60 percent of the expected goals, 62 percent of the scoring chances and 71 percent of the high-danger chances when Thompson is on the ice at five-on-five. He hasn’t been perfect defensively. He missed an assignment that led to a Panthers goal Monday. But he’s been much more consistent as a backchecker and has ended plenty of plays in Buffalo’s defensive zone.
It’s tough to overstate how important it is to have a true star up front in the NHL. Last season, 17 players hit the 90-point mark. Of those, 15 were on playoff teams. Thompson has seven goals and five assists, which is a 98-point pace. If he keeps this up, the Sabres will play meaningful hockey late in the season. What’s especially encouraging is the chemistry he’s showing with JJ Peterka, who has eight points in the eight games he’s played this season. Those point totals don’t even include much power-play production. The top line of Thompson, Peterka and Alex Tuch has been driving a lot of Buffalo’s offense.
What I think: Peyton Krebs has earned his minutes. Coming into the season, Krebs was going to be Buffalo’s 13th forward. But an early injury to Nicolas Aube-Kubel gave Krebs an opportunity, and he has made the most of it. His role is still defensively focused. He’s started only 30 percent of his shifts in the offensive zone, the lowest percentage on the team. But he’s also gotten a bit of power play time and has moved up to the second and third lines on occasion. Krebs doesn’t seem to care where he’s playing as long as he’s getting ice time. Krebs said he thinks he’s the type of player who will play his best hockey in the playoffs and that’s the only thing on his mind.
“I’m sick and tired of not being in the playoffs,” Krebs said. “You go home and you watch every year and it friggin sucks. I just want to get there.”
What I know: Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn have one goal between them, and it was an empty-netter from Quinn. That’s a growing problem for Buffalo. Cozens has been more involved in the play than Quinn through 10 games, but the Sabres are going to need a lot more from both of these highly touted young players. Cozens scored 31 goals two seasons ago. He needs to get a lot closer to that number than he did last season. Quinn has never scored more than 14 goals in a season, but the Sabres were counting on him to be a 20-goal scorer this season. Ruff has tried those two with a variety of different linemates, and nothing has clicked. He also scratched Quinn for a game, but that didn’t solve the problem, either. The longer this cold spell goes on, the more of an issue it’s becoming for the Sabres. And these two aren’t alone. Captain Rasmus Dahlin has started to get some point production but has made too many mistakes in puck management and defensive zone coverage. The Sabres can’t have key pieces of their core letting them down.
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has a 3.31 GAA and .890 SV% in seven games this season. (Timothy T. Ludwig / Imagn Images)
What I think: Buffalo’s goalies will need to be better. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Devon Levi have both had some good moments. Luukkonen has been more consistent and earned more minutes, but it feels like neither goalie has played to his potential often enough in the early going. As a team, the Sabres have the eighth worst save percentage in the NHL in all situations. According to Money Puck, Buffalo’s goals against above expected is ninth worst in the league. Goaltending hasn’t been the Sabres’ biggest problem early in the season, but these two are both capable of more than they’ve shown. This team needs above average goaltending to stay in the race.
What I know: The Sabres’ special teams need to be better if they’re going to make the playoffs. The power play has goals in consecutive games after starting the season 0-for-22. That’s a positive trend and one that needs to continue if the Sabres are going to make a push. They’ve allowed the same number of short-handed goals as they have scored power-play goals. Buffalo is also 25th in the league on the penalty kill. That unit has shown a lot of promise, but the Sabres have the seventh worst short-handed save percentage in the league despite having the seventh best expected goals against total on the penalty kill. Translation: the goalies need to make more saves on the penalty kill.
What I think: The Sabres will need an in-season trade. Thompson’s line can’t do it all. The Sabres are sitting on just over $6 million in salary cap space, the sixth most in the NHL. That’s plenty for general manager Kevyn Adams to make a move to upgrade this roster. Adams said he was in the market for a top-six forward over the summer, but a trade never came together. Those trades don’t often happen this early in the season, but Adams needs to be ready to act as more teams decide to sell closer to the deadline. As long as the Sabres remain competitive, Adams owes it to the players to give them every chance to end this playoff drought. Cozens and Quinn rounding into form will help, but Adams can’t bank on that. He has the assets and money to make a move, and the pressure to do so will increase as the season goes along.
What I know: The Sabres are bought in on how Ruff wants to play. Even though players are still trying to eliminate defensive zone blunders, this team has been better at suppressing high-danger chances against and is much more consistent backchecking than it was a year ago. Ruff didn’t dramatically overhaul the system. He’s just clearly communicated the priorities and held players to a standard.
“Just being honest with the guys,” defenseman Henri Jokiharju said of Ruff’s approach. “Honesty is the biggest thing that I like and is the key for getting better. You just have to be honest with each other and hold each other accountable.”
Added Krebs: “I like straight shooters, guys that aren’t going to bulls— you. Lindy’s done that. That’s what you want out of a coach.”