What we got right — and wrong — in weird NFL season: Concern for Bills, belief in Chiefs
The Bills will be dangerous in the playoffs, but they could've been an even bigger threat had they addressed their needs at pass catcher.
www.nytimes.com
The concern about the Bills' lack of playmakers remains relevant as they enter the postseason. Nic Antaya / Getty Images
What a strange season this has been in the NFL. There are teams that have established themselves as powerhouses in recent years that missed the postseason, and neither conference boasts clear-cut front-runners to make it to the Super Bowl.
The start of the season gave us some clues for what was to come. Remember when the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Carter, one of the best defensive players on the defending Super Bowl champs, was ejected before the first offensive snap of the season? Remember when the Las Vegas Raiders, frontrunners for the No. 1 pick, beat the New England Patriots, who are tied for the best record in the league? Or when J.J. McCarthy won Offensive Player of the Week for leading the Minnesota Vikings over the Chicago Bears?
All of that happened in the first week of the season!
Throughout this weird season, we launched this column as a space to track what was trending around the league and navigate which teams were poised to finish at the top of both ends of the spectrum, in glory and in misery. Thank you for reading and engaging with us every week.
Although we tried to be perfect in our assessments, every so often, we were off base. Shocking, I know. On the plus side, there were also things that, if you followed along all season, you would have been smarter for it. For that, you’re welcome.
Since the race for the No. 1 pick is down to two teams with fairly straightforward scenarios in Week 18, we’re going to scrap that section this week. Instead, we’ll have a bonus Bonus Five, in which we look at things we completely botched, as well as things we were spot-on about. That’s where we begin this week’s What’s Trending in the NFL.
Bonus five: Things we got wrong
5. Belief in the Kansas City Chiefs: The 2023 season was hard for me to shake. That year, the Chiefs lost three of four games to start December to fall to 9-6, then went on to win the Super Bowl. They still had Patrick Mahomes in his prime this season, paired with Andy Reid and a receiver group that looked talented on paper and was supposed to become more available — from injuries and suspension — as the year went on. The defense was also not bad.It never came together, though. That makes it look really foolish to rank the Chiefs in the top three as Super Bowl favorites from Week 8 through Week 11. Of the eight games the Chiefs lost with Mahomes as the starter, seven were against teams that are in the playoffs, and only once in those eight games — a 10-point loss to the Houston Texans in Week 14 — did Kansas City lose by more than one possession. The Chiefs had a tough schedule, but they also were just not a good team this season.
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers being a Super Bowl favorite led by an MVP favorite: In Week 7, I had the Buccaneers as the No. 3 team to win the Super Bowl. Part of the reasoning I included was that Baker Mayfield was “arguably the top MVP candidate” for the 5-1 Bucs, who were coming off an 11-point win over the San Francisco 49ers. Well, since that time, the Bucs have lost eight out of 10. Mayfield won’t even come close to sniffing the MVP award, and the Bucs may not even make the playoffs.
3. Most impressive coaching jobs: Entering Week 8, I ranked the most impressive coaching jobs to that point. In retrospect, there were some glaring missteps in that section. I had Kyle Shanahan at No. 2, which was a silver lining, and I’d probably bump him up to No. 1 now. But Ben Johnson was left off the list, as was Mike Vrabel. The logic was that the Bears and Patriots hadn’t really played a tough slate. None of the Bears’ opponents to that point will make the playoffs this season, and only one of New England’s opponents to that point has clinched a playoff berth so far, though the Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers could join that club. Even though I understand the reasoning at the time, it’s a tough look to see Johnson and Vrabel omitted while Todd Bowles, Dan Campbell and Shane Steichen all cracked the top five.
Not including Mike Vrabel as a Coach of the Year candidate after Week 8 was a big whiff.Maddie Meyer / Getty Images
2. Midseason Super Bowl favorites: With a 17-game schedule and differing bye weeks for teams, there isn’t a clean-cut midway point of the season, but I’d classify it as Week 8 or Week 9. For my top two teams likely to win the Super Bowl after Week 8, I had the Chiefs and the Lions. The following week, I still had the Chiefs at No. 1 while the Lions were No. 4. Both teams will be watching the playoffs from their couch.
1. The “genuinely mediocre” teams: Back in Week 3, we took on the task of categorizing the 12 teams that split their first two games and sat at 1-1. One of the categories was “genuinely mediocre,” and it included three teams: the Patriots, Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars. That’s right. The only three teams that enter Week 18 with a chance to clinch the top seed in the AFC were labeled as “genuinely mediocre.” There’s a gallon of milk from 1908 that’s aged better than that.
Not ranked: Teams you don’t wanna face in the playoffs — To be fair, you can’t expect to have a great hit rate when you examine non-playoff teams in Week 14 that could be scary in the playoffs. Chances are, they’re out of the playoff picture for a reason at that juncture of the season. Of the five teams that made that section, four of them — Chiefs, Lions, Dallas Cowboys and Cincinnati Bengals — will not make the playoffs. The Texans did make it, and although the defense is scary, the offense keeps me from saying they’re a team others should be terrified of.
Bonus five: Things we got correct
5. Not believing in the Indianapolis Colts: I never fell for it. Not when they were undefeated after Week 3, not when they were alone atop the AFC after Week 8 and not when they were tied for the fewest losses in the NFL after Week 11. It’s easy to look back and say the Colts lost their starting quarterback, but Daniel Jones lost three of his last four games that he started and finished, and the lone win was over the Atlanta Falcons when Jonathan Taylor went berserk. Their winning ways never felt sustainable, and they never felt like a legitimate threat to make a playoff run. After starting 8-2, the Colts won’t even make the playoffs.4. Holding out on McCarthy: The narrative was there after Week 1. McCarthy, filling in the 2024 shoes of Sam Darnold, had a rough first half against the Bears but pulled it together for a decent second half to spur a comeback victory. Even if McCarthy had turned that momentum into a solid 2025 season, I’d still be raising caution. We have too many examples of quarterbacks having some success in their first year as a starter, only to fail to sustain that success when teams have the book on them. McCarthy’s season didn’t even come to that point, as he struggled to stay on the field and with his play when he was on the field.
3. Wishing for a Jakobi Meyers trade to the Buffalo Bills: After the trade deadline, we examined some trades that we would have liked to see. Meyers was a very realistic trade target, as he had publicly asked out of Las Vegas and the Raiders were open to dealing him. In a postseason that will not feature Mahomes or Joe Burrow, and potentially Lamar Jackson, can you imagine if Josh Allen had Meyers as a playmaker to pair with James Cook? If you think we’re overselling the impact Meyers could have had, look at what he’s done for Trevor Lawrence since he got acclimated in Jacksonville (and already landed a contract extension), and look at what Bills pass catchers are doing for Allen.
Jakobi Meyers’ production in Jacksonville is further proof of how much the Bills could have benefited from adding him at the trade deadline.
Kenneth Richmond / Getty Images
2. Concerns for postseason contenders: In Week 11, we examined some of the top concerns for contenders. For the Colts, we listed the quarterback position, and this was before Jones’ season-ending injury. Turns out it was such a concern that when Jones went out, the Colts felt their best option was a guy who hadn’t played in the league in half a decade. The Eagles’ offense and the Bills’ playmakers were also concerns. It’s hard to argue with either of those as we approach the postseason.
1. A miserable New York Jets season: Admittedly, it’s not exactly a bold take, but a new head coach and quarterback didn’t bump the optimism up at all. The No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is down to the Raiders and New York Giants in Week 18, but the Jets would have been the third team alive had the Falcons not upset the Los Angeles Rams on Monday (though it would’ve required a wild eight-game parlay). Turns out, that’s exactly where we had the Jets ranked in the race for the top pick when the season began, at No. 3. Overall, the Jets were in the bottom five for 15 of the 17 weeks this season, so we had a pretty good idea all season that they were one of the worst teams in the league.
Not ranked: Giants’ season outlook in Week 1 — The Giants opened the season at No. 4 in our race for the No. 1 pick in the draft. Although they are finishing as the No. 2 team in that regard, we sort of hit the nail on the head of how this season would go for them, even before it began. We noted that they entered the season with the toughest schedule in the league, which certainly shows with their loss column. We also noted that regardless of the starting quarterback being Russell Wilson or Jaxson Dart, “the wildest ride awaits if Jameis Winston gets his shot under center.” Even in an unpredictable season around the league, Winston delivering on entertainment value was entirely predictable.
Road to Santa Clara
The five teams with the best chance at winning the Super Bowl.5. Buffalo Bills: We try to be more process-oriented as opposed to results-oriented in this space. We’re talking about a five-game winning streak for the Bills right now if Allen hits a pass that he hits 99 times out of 100 for the 2-point conversion on Sunday. But it felt like a miracle that the Bills were even in that position, given how the Eagles were handling the Buffalo offense for most of the game. With Allen, you always have a chance, but the Bills need more from the pieces around him.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars: For as little respect as the AFC South gets, and understandably so, it’s impressive that the two teams with the longest active winning streaks in the NFL entering the final week of the season come from this division. The Texans have won eight consecutive games while the Jaguars have won seven straight. The combination of how they’re playing and the results they’re getting, there may not be a hotter team in the NFL entering the playoffs.
3. San Francisco 49ers: It feels like a weekly tradition to marvel at what the 49ers are doing despite all of the major injuries they’ve worked through. Week 17 was no different, as Trent Williams went out early. George Kittle missed the game against the Bears with an injury, and Jake Tonges stepped right up and delivered in what was arguably the best game of the season. Brock Purdy is playing about as well as any quarterback in the league right now.
2. New England Patriots: The Patriots are a great team with an exciting young quarterback in Drake Maye and a phenomenal head coach in Vrabel, with a chance at the top seed on the line in Week 18. It’s a shame that they’re making headlines for the wrong reasons.
1. Seattle Seahawks: There isn’t a glaring weakness anywhere on Seattle’s roster. It’s all about how much they can rely on Darnold in the big moments of the big games.
Not ranked: Denver Broncos — There are so many great Coach of the Year candidates in the NFL this season that the job Sean Payton has done has flown under the radar a bit. Vance Joseph deserves a lot of credit for what he’s doing with the defense, but coaches often talk about the importance of complementary football. The Broncos do that as well as anyone, and a lot of that has to do with the fact that Payton knows what his strengths and limitations are on both sides of the ball, and he creates a game plan within those parameters.