Who are the NFL’s contenders and pretenders? Sorting out Ravens, Patriots, Colts and more
Sixteen NFL teams have winning records, but not all are considered true contenders in a year of wide-open races.
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Lamar Jackson and the 4-5 Ravens are surging. Adam Bettcher / Getty Images
Seven weeks remain in the NFL regular season and there’s a thick pack of teams working hard to define themselves and secure a prime playoff seeding position.
Everything’s wide open with half of the 32 teams owning winning records and clinging to hope as the final stretch of the season begins. In a year where fortunes can fluctuate from week to week, however, things aren’t always as they seem.
Here’s a look at the contenders and pretenders.
AFC
Indianapolis Colts (8-2) — Pretender
Daniel Jones has provided a nice story of resurgence. Jonathan Taylor is on a tear. Shane Steichen has pushed the right buttons, and Indy owned the best record in the league at the midway point. The Colts benefitted from a soft first-half schedule, though, and the Pittsburgh Steelers exposed them in Week 9. Then, Indianapolis needed overtime to get past the Atlanta Falcons.Jones appears to be coming back down to earth (four interceptions and six fumbles in the last two games). The final seven games will serve as the truth-teller for him and the Colts, who return from their Week 11 bye with a road game against the Kansas City Chiefs. They’ll then have two games against the Houston Texans, two against the Jacksonville Jaguars and contests against the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers. It’s possible the Colts still win their division, but a deep playoff run seems unlikely.
Denver Broncos (8-2) — Pretender
The Broncos have a strong record, but some of those wins may be fool’s gold. Their first-half opponents owned a combined 23-48-1 record, and yet, the Broncos’ average margin of victory is just 6.2 points. Four of those contests were decided by 3 points or fewer. On one hand, four fourth-quarter comebacks show resilience, but the continued offensive struggles and erratic play from Bo Nix are concerning. If not for a dominant defense that leads the league with 46 sacks, Denver would not own a winning record.New England Patriots (8-2) — Contender
Perhaps no one outside of the Patriots organization could have anticipated this kind of success, but Mike Vrabel’s team finds itself holding a share of the best record in the AFC with less than two months left in the regular season. The Patriots are young, and their roster still has some weak spots, but New England is a legit playoff team capable of going toe-to-toe with any squad.Exceptional play from Drake Maye has been key, along with a balanced offensive approach, a stingy defense (fifth-best on third downs while also allowing just 19.2 points per game) and impactful contributions on special teams. They already have quality wins against perennial playoff teams such as the Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Will postseason inexperience limit them at all?
Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) — Pretender
Jim Harbaugh has gotten a lot out of this bunch, especially given the way the injury bug has bitten the offensive line and running backs. Coaches have had to duct tape the offensive line together, and between the line and running back injuries, L.A. has fielded a wildly inconsistent rushing attack.Justin Herbert has kept his team in games, but he is also on pace to flirt with his career high in interceptions (15). The inconsistencies aren’t limited to the offense. The L.A. defense also has experienced letdowns at key junctures. Ultimately, however, it feels like the rampant injuries will take a toll in the final stretch.
Buffalo Bills (6-3) — Pretender
On one hand, Sean McDermott’s team feels like a contender. The Bills have one of the best quarterbacks of his generation, big-game experience and can beat any team on any given Sunday. They will make the playoffs, and they may be a tough out. However, the Bills also have some truly concerning elements and seemingly have too many holes to truly contend.Their run defense ranks among the worst in the league. They’re thin in the pass-rushing department, and offensively, they’re still extremely Josh Allen dependent. He’s one of the best in the league; however, his receiving options remain extremely limited. Failing to secure help for the defensive front and another playmaker at the deadline will wind up costing the Bills.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) — Pretender
The Steelers got off to a solid start and have led the AFC North for much of the season. However, they have the look of a team that is about to run out of gas. Aaron Rodgers’ passer rating and completion percentage have declined over the last five games. The quarterback could really benefit from another receiver opposite DK Metcalf, but they, too, came up empty at the trade deadline.Defensively, the Steelers are far too inconsistent. The unit has turned in some dominant performances, but Pittsburgh has given up 376 yards and nearly 25 points per game. Emerging unscathed from a tough second-half schedule featuring games against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have already beaten them once, the Chicago Bears, Bills, Ravens (twice), Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns feels like mission impossible.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-4) — Contender
Despite a slow start to the season and a loss to Buffalo entering their bye, the 5-4 Chiefs remain one of the most well-rounded, battle-tested squads with all of their goals still within reach. The offense has regained its potency, and the defense still has playmakers at every level.The second-half schedule plays out favorably for Kansas City (road games at Denver, Dallas, Tennessee and Las Vegas and home games against Indianapolis, Houston, the Chargers and Denver). After going an uncharacteristic 0-4 in one-score games during the first half of the season, Patrick Mahomes and company seem likely to flip the script in these late-season games, where experience matters. Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo tend to get the most out of their players when it matters most. Look for the Chiefs to fine-tune things and build momentum entering the postseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4) — Pretender
The Jaguars showed early promise while opening the season with a 4-1 record. Since their upset of Kansas City on Monday night of Week 5, however, they have gone 1-3, and last week experienced an embarrassing collapse after blowing a 29-10 fourth-quarter lead to the Texans.Jacksonville’s defense is an opportunistic bunch and ranks second in the league in takeaways, but the offense remains wildly inconsistent. The Trevor Lawrence experience remains a roller coaster, and the Travis Hunter experiment will have to wait until next season now that Jacksonville’s top rookie is on injured reserve following knee surgery. It’s possible the Jaguars can continue to lay a foundation for growth next season, but contenders, they are not.
Baltimore Ravens (4-5) — Contender
The lone team with a sub-.500 record on this list has won three straight and appears to have finally found itself after a tumultuous start to the season. Health regained, quarterback Lamar Jackson has directed Baltimore’s offense to 27- and 28-point outings in each of the last two weeks, and Derrick Henry appears to have gotten back on track, averaging 97 rushing yards in his last four games after managing just 37 per contest in the previous four.Meanwhile, the Ravens’ much-maligned defense appears to have turned the corner, holding teams to an average of 14.5 points in the last four games (a 3-1 stretch) after surrendering 35.4 per outing during the 1-4 start to the season. The Ravens have also recorded eight turnovers in the last four games after managing only two in the first five. They have a chance to build momentum entering the postseason, where they’ll rank among the most dangerous teams.
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles (7-2) — Contender
It’s not always pretty or prolific, but the Eagles, more times than not, find a way to get the job done. They remain one of the most well-rounded and balanced squads in the league. They can win in every way imaginable, and have done so against quality opponents like the Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers.Much has been made about A.J. Brown’s fluctuating use and perceived discontentment, and Saquon Barkley’s production is down from last year’s monster campaign. Yet Barkley showed two games ago that he remains capable of dominance, and the Eagles can still put up explosive passing numbers. Look for them to kick into high gear in the second half of the season while a reinfoced defense creates headaches for opponents.
Nick Sirianni, Jalen Hurts and the Eagles may have had a few issues, but they’ll be in the mix at the end.Michael Reaves / Getty Images
Seattle Seahawks (7-2) — Contender
Replacing Geno Smith with Sam Darnold was a brilliant move. The Seahawks lead the NFL with 40 explosive plays of 20 yards or more. Wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving yards. Meanwhile, Mike Macdonald has guided a defense featuring game-changers such as Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy II, DeMarcus Lawrence and a loaded secondary to another level.Avoidable mistakes cost the Seahawks in their two losses (San Francisco, Tampa Bay), but they have now won four straight and face the Rams on Sunday in a crucial NFC West clash. Seattle’s ground game has some big runs this season, but struggles with consistency. Otherwise, the Seahawks have every element of a team with championship aspirations.
Los Angeles Rams (7-2) — Contender
They just might be the most complete team in the NFL. Sean McVay is creative and can put pressure on defenses with a variety of packages. Matthew Stafford is playing at an MVP level. L.A.’s defense dominates. The Rams’ only losses came against the Eagles in Week 3 and the 49ers in overtime in Week 5, and now they’re riding a four-game win streak that has seen them outscore opponents 128-46. Most importantly, the Rams have experience working in their favor as 37 members of the roster were on the team when L.A. won the Super Bowl in 2022. Vegas gives the Rams the second-best odds (behind Kansas City) to win it all, while The Athletic’s NFL playoff simulator gives them the best chance to win it all at 14 percent.Detroit Lions (6-3) — Contender
Dan Campbell and the offense continue to tweak, experiment and massage. They’re missing Ben Johnson’s creativity, but remain very capable thanks to Jared Goff and talented supporting cast members, including wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the two-headed rushing monster of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery and an offensive line anchored by Penei Sewell. The Lions experience some inconsistencies on defense, but that side also boasts difference-makers. They have two years of playoff disappointments to learn from now. Is this the year they get over the hump?Green Bay Packers (5-3-1) — Pretender
One of the oddest teams in the league this season, the Packers can look like world beaters one week and utterly incompetent the next. Despite being anchored by a quarterback and running back with elite skills, Green Bay’s offense struggles to live up to its potential.All three of their losses came in very winnable games. An imposing defense held the Browns, Panthers and Eagles to a combined 39 points, but Jordan Love and company couldn’t get out of their own way. Matt LaFleur is a detail-oriented, offensive-minded head coach, yet there’s a disconnect somewhere that runs deeper than the injury bug that has plagued Green Bay’s pass catchers and offensive line. The Packers will likely make it back to the playoffs, but it looks as if they will once again falter in January.
Chicago Bears (6-3) — Pretender
On Johnson’s watch, Caleb Williams and the Bears have displayed steady growth while learning how to win games in a variety of ways: blowouts, shootouts, tough slogs, comebacks. Though encouraging for Chicago and its fans, this team is not there yet. Although 6-3, they very well could be 3-6.Chicago remains inconsistent on defense (underperforming pass rush, injury- and miscue-plagued secondary) and weaknesses remain along the offensive line. This work-in-progress team will likely take its lumps during a tough stretch featuring two games against Green Bay, as well as meetings with Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit and San Francisco.
