Why each AFC playoff team will win the Super Bowl, and why they won’t
The Broncos have the best odds, by nature of their free pass in the first round, but Denver is far from flawless.
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Bo Nix's Denver Broncos have the best odds to win the Super Bowl in the AFC, but Trevor Lawrence's Jacksonville Jaguars aren't far behind. Ben Swanson / Associated Press
The NFL playoffs begin this weekend, and what a difference a year makes. No Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. No Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. No Dan Campbell and the Lions.
Of course, there is still plenty of starpower in the postseason, and the number of good-but-not-elite teams in the hunt this year means, truly, anyone can win.
As we do every year, we’re going to examine the reasons why each of the 14 playoff teams will win the Super Bowl and why they won’t. We’ll start with the AFC, where it feels like a wide-open race. According to the NFL Playoff Simulator, which is powered by my NFL Projection Model, no team in the AFC outside of the Broncos, who earned a free pass in the first round, has a better than 19 percent chance to win the conference. This year, perhaps more than any other in recent memory, is primed for drama.
So, let’s break down the contenders, going from the No. 1-seeded Broncos to the No. 7-seeded Chargers.
Denver Broncos
Why they will win the Super BowlBecause Bo Nix goes on a three-game run of playing like a top-10 quarterback rather than an average one. Frankly, average might be too forgiving a term to describe the type of season Nix had despite the Broncos earning the AFC's No. 1 seed. Sure, his EPA/dropback ranked 11th among qualified quarterbacks, but his dropback success rate finished 29th, between Justin Fields and Tua Tagovailoa. If the down-to-down consistency doesn't improve, it's hard to see the Broncos winning three games against quality competition. This season, the Broncos have played six games against playoff teams and have scored 21 or fewer in all but one game, and Nix has only put up a positive EPA/dropback in two of them. If the Broncos end up as the last team standing, it'll be because Nix substantially outpaced his regular-season performance.
Why they won’t
Because the defense isn't elite. Call it a hot take if you want, but considering the state of the offense, an elite defense will be needed to win the Super Bowl, and my model just isn't there on the Broncos. They're a good unit, but the late-season returns raised red flags. From Week 13 on, the Broncos ranked ninth in EPA/play despite playing the Commanders, Raiders, Chiefs (with Chris Oladokun at QB) and a Justin Herbert-less Chargers team. In the two games against quality offenses, Green Bay and Jacksonville, the Broncos' defense put up two average, at best, performances. We have seen elite defenses pull bad offenses to a Super Bowl — ahem, 2015 Broncos — but this defense isn't on that level.
New England Patriots
Why they will win the Super BowlBecause Drake Maye is incredible, and when you pair that with good coaching, you get a team that can beat anyone. Maye is one of two candidates for the MVP, and it's easy to see why. He finished first in EPA/dropback, second in dropback success rate, and the Patriots offense was fourth in series conversion rate (the percentage of times a team turns a first down into another first down or touchdown). That's an elite offense, and yes, they played a cupcake schedule — only three games against playoff teams, including the Steelers — but nobody has really slowed them down. As for the coaching aspect, we saw Mike Vrabel win a ton of games in Tennessee with lesser quarterback talent than Maye. Vrabel knows how to coach, and pairing him with an elite quarterback is a recipe for a Super Bowl.
An elite coach and QB in New England? Man, that sounds familiar.
Why they won’t
Because I'm not sure if the defense is good. Average? Most likely. But it's a weakness for a team that needs to win four games to win the Super Bowl. The Patriots' defense finished near the top 10 in almost every major category, but it plummeted to 18th in success rate. Now, a caveat is that the rush defense really struggled when defensive tackle Milton Williams went down with an injury. He's back, and that's a big boost as their defensive success rate dropped to 26th with him off the field this year versus 17th with him on it, according to FTN Data. Still, this is not a defense that will put fear into its opponents, and no matter how many points you score, if you can't get stops, you aren't going to win the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Why they will win the Super BowlBecause after they traded for wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (Week 10), the Jaguars were one of the best offenses in football. In that span, they finished in the top 10 in EPA/play and explosive plays. Sure, they've played some bad teams during that stretch, but they also played the Texans, Chargers and Broncos and put up 29-plus points against all three. QB Trevor Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career and has a solid supporting cast. If this offense keeps humming under first-year coach Liam Coen, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Jags make a run to the Super Bowl.
Why they won’t
Because the defense isn't good enough. The Jaguars are similar to the Patriots in that they're both teams with great offenses that will likely not have the horses on defense to finish the job. Yes, the Jaguars' defense ranked inside the top five in defensive EPA/play, but you need a little more context, as they've been heavily reliant on turnovers. If you take out turnovers, they fall to 11th. Factor in that they haven't played an above-average offense, according to my model's rankings, since Week 7 (Rams), and you can see why this unit will ultimately prove to be the downfall of the Jaguars.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Why they will win the Super BowlBecause the offense has been solid when using the running backs as pass catchers. The return of wide receiver DK Metcalf is massive for this offense, but from Week 11 on, Aaron Rodgers led the league in targeting running backs, throwing to them on almost 26 percent of his passes. The offense isn't elite, and I'm not even sure it's good, but it was above-average during that time. Factor in Rodgers' league-leading time-to-throw abilities, and defenses don't have time to be as exotic, which enables the Steelers to methodically drive down the field, often by peppering their running backs near the line of scrimmage. No, a Super Bowl run isn't likely for this team, but Pittsburgh does have a bit of a unique offense that could give defenses that rely on their pass rush problems.
Why they won’t
Because they're incredibly average. The offense ranked 17th and 18th in EPA/play and success rate, while the defense finished 19th and 13th in the same metrics. Sure, coach Mike Tomlin's teams tend to win ugly games, but not in the playoffs — at least not lately. They can definitely muddy up a game against the Texans and maybe another foe, but a team this average isn't going to survive long in the playoffs.
Houston Texans
Why they will win the Super BowlBecause the defense gets back to its elite form. Despite being one of the top defenses all season, the last month has been discouraging. From Weeks 15-18, the Texans ranked 12th in defensive EPA/play despite playing the Cardinals, Raiders, Chargers and Colts. For a unit that was battling the Seahawks to be recognized as the league's best defense about a month ago, they've fallen off quite a bit. And given the state of the Texans' offense, the defense must be elite for Houston to win the Super Bowl. One thing to note about the defense, in the first thirteen weeks of the season, the Texans blitzed at the 15th highest rate in the league, but since Week 14, that number dropped to last. Could blitzing more push the defense back to top form? We'll find out soon if the Texans believe that to be the case.
Why they won’t
Because the offense is still not Super Bowl caliber. The Texans' offense ranked 22nd in EPA/play and 28th in success rate. That success rate figure is sandwiched between the lowly Dolphins and Jets. That doesn't sound like a Super-Bowl winning team, does it? C.J. Stroud was the second-best quarterback in success rate against Cover 1 this year, but against every other type of coverage, he didn't rank above 20th in success rate. When you're below average against a majority of coverages, you become easy to game plan against, and that's going to be a big reason the Texans can't ride their defense to a ring.
Buffalo Bills
Why they will win the Super BowlBecause it's Josh Allen's time, and he's going into the playoffs relatively healthy. The Bills are basically a one-man show, and they've had a ton of success over Allen's career but always fall short in the playoffs — usually against the Chiefs. But Mahomes and the Chiefs are nowhere to be found this postseason, so now it's Allen's time. If the foot injury is healed, there probably is not a quarterback in the AFC you're taking over Allen. While the Bills aren't the best team in the AFC, per my model, they don't have to be if Allen can put on his superhero cape, pull the Bills to a Super Bowl and cement himself as the best in the game.
Why they won’t
Because outside of Allen, this team isn't very good, and if Allen isn't 100 percent healthy, they don't have the horses on either side of the ball to make a run. The running game is awesome, but how much of that is a product of Allen's mobility? What happens to their ground game if he cannot use his legs as much? Through the air, their pass-catching group is one of the worst in the playoffs. Meanwhile, on the defensive side of the ball, the Bills ranked 31st in rush EPA/play and 25th in success rate. It's the playoffs, and if you can't stop the run, how are you supposed to get off the field? We've seen that with the Bills giving up at least 23 points in five of their final 10 games.
Los Angeles Chargers
Why they will win the Super BowlBecause Herbert is awesome, and coach Jim Harbaugh knows how to win football games, and if you pair those two with a good defense, anything is possible. Despite having one of the worst offensive lines in football this season (due to injuries), the Chargers still won 11 games. They ranked 24th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate on offense, so if they can squeeze out any more production from the offense, they'll have a chance to make a run. If you're banking on anything, bank on Herbert's ability to put his team on his back and Harbaugh's success as a head coach. The Chargers are 6-2 in one-score games, and while that usually reverts to 50-50 in the postseason, I am willing to give Herbert and Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt in those situations because we have seen elite quarterback and head coach combinations thrive in the past.
Why they won’t
Because the offensive line is in shambles. Good quarterback play and coaching can only go so far. I'd say the Chargers are similar to the Patriots in that they have the quarterback and coach combination, but the Patriots are putting up top-of-the-league stats, while the Chargers' offensive metrics are nauseating. The defense finished around the top five in just about every metric, but the Chargers are not elite enough for me to get behind this offense. No matter how good your defense is, you can't win a Super Bowl with a bottom-seven offense, and that's what they've been since offensive tackle Joe Alt went down with his season-ending injury in Week 9.
