Bills notebook: Buffalo’s AFC East hopes hang in the balance in Week 15
The Bills (9-4) need to beat the Patriots (11-2) on Sunday to retain hopes for a sixth straight division title.
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Josh Allen and the Bills will have to win Sunday to keep their hopes alive for an AFC East title. Bryan M. Bennett / Getty Images
The Buffalo Bills will be in a position Sunday that they haven’t encountered much in the last half-decade. A team that has won the AFC East each of the last five seasons will need a victory over the New England Patriots just to keep the conversation alive for another week.
The Patriots would officially clinch the division with a win Sunday, meaning the best the Bills could hope for is a No. 5 seed — and they’d have to start their playoff journey on the road.
The Bills have mostly played things close to the vest this week, minimizing the gravity of the game by suggesting it’s no different from all the rest. The stakes, however, are quite clear.
If the Bills (9-4) were to beat the Patriots (11-2), it would, at the very least, leave the light on for a rally to win a sixth straight division title. For the Bills to complete the comeback, this is the path.
- The Bills must beat the Patriots on Sunday.
- The Patriots must lose to one of the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins in Week 17 or 18.
- In addition to the two items above, the Bills must finish with at least the same record as the Patriots.
- The Bills likely have to beat the Jets in Week 18, too, to gain the tiebreaker advantage. The only way the Bills would not need a win over the Jets in Week 18 is if the Patriots go 0-4 and the Bills win their next three, though that scenario is the least likely.
What do the Bills look like heading into the contest, and how have things shifted since their last matchup, a 23-20 loss in Week 5? Here’s our Week 15 Bills notebook.
The Bills are a different team since Week 5
Although Oct. 5 doesn’t seem like that long ago, it’s years in the context of a football season, given how much goes into the weekly evolution of a team. On that date, the Patriots issued the Bills their first loss of the season, but the terms of the matchup were a bit different than what will occur this weekend in New England. On offense and defense, the Bills operate very differently from a personnel standpoint, and on defense, we’ve seen some of their philosophy shift over their last eight games.On offense, most notably, the wide receiver room was far different. Back then, Keon Coleman was still near the top of the snap counts, Curtis Samuel was one of their most often used receivers and Tyrell Shavers was nothing more than an occasional substitute. Since, Coleman has been pushed well down the depth chart, Gabe Davis has taken his place in the lineup, Samuel has gone on Injured Reserve, Shavers has seen his role rise dramatically and the team added veteran Brandin Cooks. Elijah Moore was a healthy scratch in Week 5.
While those changes are stark, the most glaring changes have been on defense. In Week 5, the Bills were without three defensive tackles who will be available Sunday, as T.J. Sanders was hurt, Larry Ogunjobi was suspended and Jordan Phillips remained on the practice squad. Their defensive tackle rotation that week was rounded out by Phidarian Mathis, who is a weekly healthy scratch now, and Zion Logue, who struggled in his three appearances this season.
On top of that, the Bills hadn’t come close to their new identity on obvious passing downs. Taylor Rapp was still in the lineup and struggling due to injury. Part of their significant shift was when Rapp and Damar Hamlin had to go on Injured Reserve, which put Jordan Poyer into the starting lineup. Now, when they’re in obvious passing situations, the Bills make a massive substitution, replacing three to four defenders with players better equipped to play the pass. The Bills have never before used situational substitutions on defense to this degree under head coach Sean McDermott.
The group that comes out has, at a minimum, generally included Poyer, Matt Milano and a heavier defensive tackle, with safety Jordan Hancock, defensive back Cam Lewis and a lighter pass rusher coming in. Dorian Williams, who the team uses on some third downs as a spy against mobile quarterbacks, also wasn’t available in Week 5. Neither was rookie cornerback Maxwell Hairston, who splits snaps. Williams could very well be used in that role this week against the mobile Drake Maye.
Since the Bills have made those changes, their defense’s ceiling has risen, and they’ve been a far better unit overall, able to put together big stops when needed. So while it’s not a perfect unit, and great quarterback play beat the group at times, it’s a far better situation than it was. Whether all these changes lead to a different result remains to be seen, but it will, at the very least, be a different matchup this time around.
The Bills were getting close to full health, and then Benford’s toe happened
The Bills have had less injury luck this season than in other recent campaigns. Through the first 13 game weeks, the Bills had not held a single practice in which all active members of the 53-man roster were available and participating in some capacity. Injuries are a part of the game, but a run like this is quite uncommon. The Bills have been plagued by injuries, suffered during games and during the practice week. It’s been so rough that the Bills have had to use practice squad elevations every week this season, and have used their maximum weekly allotment of two elevations in 12 of their 13 games.Things are now starting to look up, though. All four injured players who could not play last week were, at the very least, practicing. That group includes right tackle Spencer Brown, wide receiver Joshua Palmer, defensive end Joey Bosa and linebacker Terrel Bernard. Everyone else was healthy, and the Bills were incredibly close to their first fully attended practice of the 2025 regular season. Only tight end Dawson Knox, who missed Wednesday for personal reasons, and backup quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who missed Thursday due to illness, prevented that. The Bills had a chance to have all their players available Friday, but yet another in-practice injury Thursday leaves that in question — and it’s a big one.
Top cornerback Christian Benford, who made game-changing plays in consecutive weeks against the Steelers and Bengals, popped up on the injury report as limited with a toe injury Thursday. After practice, Benford was seen with a walking boot on his left foot, putting his status for Sunday’s game in doubt. It’s a fresh injury late in the week and one that should bring more information Friday. However, this would be a humongous blow for the Bills. Without Benford, Tre’Davious White and Hairston would be pushed into bigger roles, and cornerback Dane Jackson would likely be elevated from the practice squad. McDermott is scheduled to speak with reporters Friday morning, and if Benford cannot practice, it would be an ominous sign for his availability.
On the plus side, the Bills are likely to get Brown and Palmer back from injuries. Bosa moved around really well during practice Thursday, which boosts his odds of playing after missing a game with a hamstring injury. Other than Benford, Bernard is the biggest question mark, because Bernard did not practice at all last week. In the past, the Bills have given Bernard close to a two-week ramp-up before a return. Brown, Palmer and Bosa would boost their chances, but the Benford news is a potential matchup-defining one, given the drop-off in play from him to his full-time replacement.
The status of Christian Benford (47) for Sunday’s game is unclear. His absence would be a big blow to the Bills.Jason Miller / Getty Images
For the Bills to win, they’ll need to complete a McDermott first
Throughout McDermott’s nine years coaching the Bills, there has been one sterling mark: The team is 9-0 coming out of a bye week. It’s been a part of their season you can set your clock to — even in their worst and lone losing season under McDermott, when they went 6-10 in 2018. On the flip side, since 2017, the Bills have never defeated a team coming off its bye week, going 0-3. The Patriots, of course, just had their bye last weekend.Perhaps increasing the level of difficulty, Patriots coach Mike Vrabel led the Tennessee Titans to a 6-0 mark coming out of bye weeks and was dominant in doing so. In those six games, the Titans averaged 29.8 points and had an average margin of victory of 16 points. Only one of those six games was a one-score game, and that was in his final season, 2023, before the Titans fired him in January 2024. The key difference here is that Vrabel will be coaching an entirely different franchise. The Bills will have to break two streaks to keep their divisional hopes alive.
Bills projected practice squad elevations: DE Andre Jones Jr.
Bills projected inactives vs. Patriots**: WR Keon Coleman, OT Tylan Grable, OT Chase Lundt, DT Phidarian Mathis, LB Terrel Bernard, S Darnell Savage
(**Subject to change following Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 28, Patriots 24
There are several factors indicating a potential Bills victory Sunday. For the first time since Week 5, the Bills will have their full bank of desired running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, and they’ll likely be playing with their full offensive line, which is one of the best in the NFL. The Patriots will be without their excellent defensive tackle, Milton Williams, which raises the rushing and overall offensive profiles for the Bills in the matchup. James Cook, who fumbled twice Sunday and was bottled up for only 49 yards in the last meeting, has a chance to avenge both of those performances in Week 15.On defense, especially if they don’t have Benford, the Bills will need far more from their pass rush to speed up Maye. The Patriots quarterback makes some incredible decisions and manipulates defenses, while also presenting a mobile threat, making him extremely difficult to stop. However, the Patriots don’t boast outstanding boundary receivers as Stefon Diggs primarily lines up in the slot, giving the Bills a fighting chance to slow that group down even without Benford. Ultimately, I think the Bills have found some answers on offense and defense recently to challenge the Patriots in a way they couldn’t in Week 5. And with most of their desired starters in place, the Bills have enough to make the AFC East race just a bit tighter with a victory.