The Bills actually overachieved this season. One GM thinks they might win it all
The Bills actually overachieved this season. One GM thinks they might win it allView the full article
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The Buffalo Bills’ 21-14 victory over the Miami Dolphins on Sunday night delivered their fourth successive AFC East title under coach Sean McDermott and a wild-card home game against the Pittsburgh Steelers as the AFC’s second seed. It’s been a tumultuous, challenging season for Buffalo, but with five consecutive victories to close the season, order has been restored for now.
Buffalo’s 11 victories beat the Bills’ 10.5-win Vegas total from before the season, which means, yes, this Bills team did beat expectations, despite firing an offensive coordinator along the way and enduring harsh criticism focused on McDermott.
Before we get into their Super Bowl chances, here’s a look at how every team fared in relation to Vegas preseason win totals.
2023 Wins Over Vegas Expectations
| TEAM | VEGAS | ACTUAL | WINS OVER VEGAS |
|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 6.5 | 10 | +3.5 |
 Los Angeles Rams | 6.5 | 10 | +3.5 |
 Baltimore Ravens | 10.5 | 13 | +2.5 |
 Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
 Detroit Lions | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
 Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.5 | 9 | +2.5 |
 Cleveland Browns | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
 Green Bay Packers | 7.5 | 9 | +1.5 |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | 8 | +1.5 |
 Miami Dolphins | 9.5 | 11 | +1.5 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.5 | 10 | +1.5 |
 San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | 12 | +1.5 |
 Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | 11 | +0.5 |
 Seattle Seahawks | 8.5 | 9 | +0.5 |
 Arizona Cardinals | 4.5 | 4 | -0.5 |
 Chicago Bears | 7.5 | 7 | -0.5 |
 Denver Broncos | 8.5 | 8 | -0.5 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.5 | 9 | -0.5 |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | 11 | -0.5 |
 New Orleans Saints | 9.5 | 9 | -0.5 |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 11.5 | 11 | -0.5 |
 Atlanta Falcons | 8.5 | 7 | -1.5 |
 Minnesota Vikings | 8.5 | 7 | -1.5 |
 New York Giants | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
 Tennessee Titans | 7.5 | 6 | -1.5 |
 Cincinnati Bengals | 11.5 | 9 | -2.5 |
 New York Jets | 9.5 | 7 | -2.5 |
 Washington Commanders | 6.5 | 4 | -2.5 |
 New England Patriots | 7.5 | 4 | -3.5 |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | 5 | -4.5 |
 Carolina Panthers | 7.5 | 2 | -5.5 |
“When you’ve had struggles during the year and overcome them the way they have, it really hardens you for the playoffs,” this GM said. “Now that Buffalo can run it a little bit, it takes a little stress off Josh (Allen). If I have to make a pick right now, I’m picking Buffalo.”
How sweet would that be for the Bills and their fans?
My No. 1 concern for the Bills is that they’re still the same situationally challenged team that makes mistakes in critical situations. We saw that before the half Sunday when Allen threw over the middle short of the goal line in the closing seconds, letting time run out without Buffalo getting points.
“True, battle-hardened, but they are making everything by the slimmest margins,” another exec said. “Pittsburgh could go in and beat them.”
The exec wanted to see if the Bills could maximize Stefon Diggs’ production, which has cratered amid speculation the team could be phasing him out. Diggs played a more prominent role against the Dolphins. Below, we see his playing time correlating with the team’s pass frequency.