The forecast for the Bills-Broncos playoff game should sound familiar: Cold.

NFL playoffs picks against the spread: Can Commanders make wild-card run to Super Bowl?

A wild-card team hasn't made the Super Bowl since Tom Brady's Buccaneers in the 2020 season but don't count Jayden Daniels out.

www.nytimes.com

Washington Commanders coach Dan Quinn was asked by reporters this week if all his team’s close wins can carry over to the playoffs.

To which he answered, “S— gets crazy in the postseason … we like crazy.”

Crazy would be good, after what’s been a ho-hum season. The last team to make — and win — the Super Bowl as a wild-card team was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, led by Tom Brady, the new minority owner who is currently going through the Las Vegas Raiders headquarters like Negan from “The Walking Dead.”

We would like to pick a wild-card team to make a run, but the problem is they are mostly walking around like … zombies. The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost four straight, while the Green Bay Packers — a popular sleeper pick a month ago — are all bandaged up.

But after days of research and analysis, we said screw it. We are going wild. We’re taking the Commanders to make the Super Bowl.

Obviously, the main reason is rookie sensation Jayden Daniels, who has come up huge in clutch situations again and again. And close behind is the return of cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has been out with a hamstring injury but practiced on Thursday. Quinn is a good defensive coach who has been scuffling all season and Lattimore is a difference-maker.

The Commanders (12-5) overcame their defense as they were No. 5 in the league in scoring offense (28.5 points per game). Daniels finished with the highest completion percentage (69 percent) and most rushing yards (891) by a rookie quarterback in NFL history.

It’s a bold/dumb pick. But it doesn’t really matter who the Kansas City Chiefs beat in the Super Bowl anyway.

On with this weekend’s money-makers:

Last week’s record: 5-10-1 against the spread, 1-3-1 on best bets.

Season record: 120-148-4 against the spread, 39-48-3 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Los Angeles Chargers​

We’re usually a sucker for the home underdog — and they have done well for us in the playoffs historically — but, man, it’s hard to embrace the Texans. C.J. Stroud threw all of six passes in the finale, as the Texans had nothing to play for.

They lost two straight games before that, including a 31-2 shellacking at the hands of the Ravens on Christmas Day. And they have been scuffling for a while — Stroud ranked 31st in expected points added per dropback from Weeks 6 through 18.

Joe Mixon used up all his good running in September and October and the Texans rank 26th in red zone touchdown rate. The Chargers, meanwhile, have the best red zone defense in the league, holding teams without touchdowns 55 percent of the time.

The Texans offensive line stinks, which is troublesome because they love third-and-long and the Chargers have Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa targeting Stroud. The Texans also have a good pass rush, but the Chargers have a very good offense and quick-trigger Justin Herbert. Not to mention budding star, rookie slot receiver Ladd McConkey.

The Texans don’t seem like a hard team to coach against, and Jim Harbaugh continues to push the Chargers’ resurgence way ahead of schedule.

The pick: Chargers

Pittsburgh Steelers​

Man, this spread is ridiculous. The Steelers were three-point underdogs against the Ravens in November and won that game. Then, they were seven-point underdogs in Baltimore last month and that game was tied 17-17 in the closing minutes of the third quarter before a couple of turnovers and 17 unanswered points. The win was only the Ravens’ second in the last 10 games in the series.

The Steelers have always done a uniquely great job of containing Lamar Jackson, and even in that loss, he only had 22 rushing yards. The problems are Derrick Henry (162 yards rushing in that game) and the Steelers offense. Talented receiver George Pickens didn’t play in that loss to the Ravens but was terrible against the Bengals last week and the Steelers rank 31st in expected points added per play the last month.

The Ravens have greatly improved their deep-pass defense in the last half of the season, which limits Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson a little bit. We might even see Justin Fields in some packages in this game. Mike Tomlin will have his troops ready and all you need is about 20 points to cover this spread.

The pick: Steelers

Denver Broncos​

The Bills may not go deep in the playoffs, but they own this weekend. Buffalo is hosting a wild-card game for the fifth consecutive season — and it is 4-0 with a 35-22 average margin.

The Bills averaged a league-high 3.35 points per drive at home this season, and 2.78 points per drive against playoff teams, behind only the Ravens (2.82). The Broncos will stop the run but won’t have any luck slowing down Josh Allen. He is excellent against the blitz and against man coverage, and this game could look a lot like when he went up and down the field against the Lions last month.

The Broncos’ best chance to stay close is to work the clock offensively with screen plays and short passes, and the Bills are built to prevent the big play — so that works out well for Sean Payton and rookie quarterback Bo Nix.

We were dead wrong on Nix. He had seven games with 200-plus yards, two or more touchdown passes and zero interceptions — the most by any rookie quarterback since 1950, per the NFL. So, we’re picking Daniels to win his game and Nix to cover the spread.

The pick: Broncos


Saquon Barkley had three touchdowns in the season opener against the Packers. (Pedro Vilela / Getty Images)

Green Bay Packers​

This one is especially tricky, as while you would think both quarterbacks won’t miss this game, you have to wonder how effective the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts (concussion/finger) and the Packers’ Jordan Love (elbow) will be.

Hurts would seemingly run less while Love’s elbow injury, at least, shouldn’t affect his tendency to throw off his back foot — a major reason the Packers were swept in four games by the Lions and Vikings.

This game is another rematch, and no one can forget Saquon Barkley’s three touchdowns in a 34-29 season-opening win in Brazil. The Packers are a lot better against the run now, while the Eagles defense is much better overall.

The Eagles turned the ball over three times in that win over the Packers, and barring a repeat of that, their talented rookie cornerbacks should be able to handle a wounded Packers receiving corps in what should be a low-scoring game. Laying five points in a low-scoring game isn’t optimal, but I don’t think Nick Sirianni blows it this week.

The pick: Eagles

Washington Commanders​

You probably laughed at the Commanders prediction above, especially if you remember the season-opener against the Buccaneers, as this is another rematch. Baker Mayfield threw four touchdowns in a 37-20 win that was nowhere near that close, with the Commanders scoring a touchdown in garbage time.

But that was before Daniels became a star, and the Buccaneers have a lot of injuries in their secondary right now. Daniels has tried to spread the ball around as defenses have aimed to take Terry McLaurin away, but we expect one of the league’s great receivers to shine.

The reason the Commanders would lose is simple — they’ve allowed the second-highest explosive run rate (13.5 percent) — but a focus on that and containing Mayfield (41 touchdowns and a league-high 16 interceptions) from extending plays would give Daniels the opening he needs.

The pick: Commanders

Minnesota Vikings​

It was just a month ago that the Bills sleepwalked into Los Angeles and lost 44-42, and for the rest of the week all you heard was about how dangerous the Rams were and nobody wanted to face that offense.

Well, Matthew Stafford and company then scored a total of 44 points in their next three games. They somehow won all of them, thanks to a young defense making plays against three losing teams.

Stafford has been wildly inconsistent all season, and part of that is Cooper Kupp isn’t the same coming off an ankle injury. The Rams beat the Vikings 30-20 in October, but Sam Darnold improved since then — partly because Jordan Addison gave him a second big-time, reliable playmaker alongside Justin Jefferson.

Darnold missed a lot of throws last week in an ugly loss to the Lions, but the Rams can’t send that kind of all-out pressure and I think Darnold bounces back. Look at me, picking both Nix and Darnold.

The pick: Vikings

Byes:​

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Best bets: I’m going with three underdogs, the Steelers (+10) at the Ravens, the Broncos (+10) at the Bills and the Commanders (+3) at the Buccaneers.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Obviously the Commanders, who are at +140 on the money line.

 

[HipKat]

The weather forecast for the Bills-Broncos playoff game should sound familiar: Cold.

The Denver Broncos will travel to Highmark Stadium for a Sunday playoff game against the Buffalo Bills. The weather is forecast to be pretty chilly, not reaching above freezing, according to the National Weather Service.

buffalonews.com

National Football League playoffs are held in the dead of winter every year, so fans know to expect to dress for the occasion.


The Bills were no match for the Bengals during a cold and snowy 2022 playoff game. Harry Scull Jr., Buffalo News

For the increasing occasions when the Buffalo Bills are in the championship conversation, that means expect cold and snow and, sometimes, extremes of both.

On Sunday, the Bills will face the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, the first time the two onetime American Football League rivals will meet in a playoff game in 33 years.

It will mark the 21st home playoff game in the franchise’s history − not including the two Super Bowls in which the Bills were designated the home team − and the 18th at the stadium that opened in 1973 as Rich Stadium.

The high temperature with partly sunny skies is expected to be 32 degrees at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport, and 31 degrees in Orchard Park, according to the National Weather Service.

For Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who has been on the field for seven of those previous home playoff games − he’s 5-2 at the stadium − those conditions will seem very familiar.

Per NWS records, the highest the temperature has climbed on the dates of any of those previous Allen playoff games was 39, on Jan. 21, 2021. That was Allen’s first home playoff game, when the Bills beat the Indianapolis Colts 27-24.

Allen, perhaps channeling the movie “Frozen,” has said repeatedly that the cold does not bother him, anyway. In fact, it has not historically bothered any Bills playoff team.

Even on exceptionally cold home playoff game days, the Bills have been victorious.


Fans display a Brrrrruce sign during frigid conditions, Jan. 15,1994, in Rich Stadium, Orchard Park. The Bills beat defeated the Raiders, 29-23. (Buffalo News file photo)

On Jan. 15, 1994, the Buffalo Bills faced the Los Angeles Raiders, with the winner earning the right to play in the AFC Championship game the following week. The temperature was zero degrees at game time, making it the coldest Bills game ever. The wind-chill temperature, supposedly, was 32 degrees below zero, although that formula has changed since then.

Temperatures reached 6 degrees, marking it the coldest home game in the team’s history and perhaps freezing out the warm-weather team for the Bills to claim victory 29-23.


A fan dressed as Santa holds up a sign during the second quarter of the AFC Wild Card game at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park,
Saturday, Jan. 15, 2022. (Harry Scull Jr. / Buffalo News) Harry Scull Jr. / Buffalo News

In a more recent frigid game, Buffalo dominated the New England Patriots 47-17 on Jan. 15, 2022. Temperatures that day reached only 12 degrees, but it was even colder than that at night when the game was played. Allen’s performance was so close to being flawless that the game is often referred to as “the perfect game.”

On the rare warm weather days in the playoffs − the word “warm” being a relative term − it has been a tossup for the Bills.


Bills linebacker Mike Stratton closes in on San Diego Chargers running back Keith Lincoln in the 1964 AFL championship game
for what would be called the "Hit Heard 'Round the World." Robert L. Smith/News file photo

The 1964 home playoff game against the San Diego Chargers played the day after Christmas as War Memorial Stadium resulted in a 20-7 Bills win, the team’s first of two American Football League championships. The high temperature that day was just over 50 degrees, according to the Weather Service.

Arguably the greatest playoff game in Bills history also happened on a relatively warm day. The temperature reached 50 on Jan. 3, 1993, when the Bills overcame a 35-3 second-half deficit against the Houston Oilers to win 41-38 in overtime.

Four years later, the Bills lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars 30-27. Temperatures maxed out at 53 degrees that day, the Weather Service’s data show.

It is unlikely Sunday’s game will see any extreme weather impacts like those seen during last year’s wildcard playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The game was originally scheduled for Sunday, Jan. 14, but was postponed to that Monday due to a lake effect storm. The storm dumped more than 41 inches on Hamburg over three days.

Despite the delay, the Bills took home the victory against the Steelers 31-17.

Buffalo Bills used to cold home playoff games​

The Buffalo Bills are set to play the Denver Broncos in a playoff game on Sunday. The temperature on Sunday is expected to reach around 30 degrees, according to the National Weather Service. The Bills are accustomed to cold home playoff games. Take a look below at the max temperatures measured for each home playoff game. The red columns indicate a Bills loss, the blue columns indicate a Bills win. The light blue column is when the Bills last faced the Broncos in a playoff game - the Bills claimed victory.


Weather data gathered from the National Weather Service station at the Buffalo Niagara International Airport.

 

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Commanders aren't going to make it all the way. I will say this much, however, there are some very good football teams in the play-offs. Looking forward to some good football. To me the the teams with possibilty for surprise would be the Chargers, maybe the Broncos. In the NFC, the Vikings give the biggest chance to disappoint early out of the box. And it will be interesting to see how far the Buccaneers get.

4 best teams are Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills. With the Rams knocking on their door.

Trying my best not to be a homer, the Bills do have something to prove to everyone despite their recent offensive surge. The defense looks weak. They need Milano and Von Miller to be the best they can be and the secondary to be healthy and competent.

 

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Trying my best not to be a homer, the Bills do have something to prove to everyone despite their recent offensive surge. The defense looks weak. They need Milano and Von Miller to be the best they can be and the secondary to be healthy and competent.

And dare I say, Ed Oliver do something.

 

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The colder the better.

During one of the past two games, the broadcast put up a stat showing how many more run plays the Brady has added to the Bills attack. Put the three-headed RB monster to work.

 

[HipKat]

The colder the better.

During one of the past two games, the broadcast put up a stat showing how many more run plays the Brady has added to the Bills attack. Put the three-headed RB monster to work.

Yeah ALL three

 

[HipKat]

Bills-Broncos numbers to know: These 4 stats could shape Sunday's playoff game

15.7: The punt-return average for Pro Bowler Marvin Mims, best in the NFL. Mims, a second-round pick out of Oklahoma in 2023, has 4.38-second speed in the 40-yard dash. He also caught 39 passes this season.

buffalonews.com

2nd and 3rd​

The Bills’ offense is No. 2 in the NFL in red-zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on 71.6% of trips inside the 20. Denver’s defense is third best at preventing red-zone TDs, allowing them at 46.9%.

15.7​

The punt-return average for Pro Bowler Marvin Mims, best in the NFL. Mims, a second-round pick out of Oklahoma in 2023, has 4.38-second speed in the 40-yard dash. He also caught 39 passes this season.

59.1​

The quarterback passer rating on throws targeted at Denver cornerback Patrick Surtain II, fourth lowest among all NFL cornerbacks, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Surtain is a Pro Bowl starter.

30​

The Bills hit the 30-point mark in a team-record 12 of 17 games this season and averaged 30.5 ppg. Denver hit 30 points in six of 17 games. The Broncos averaged 25.0 ppg on the season.

 

[HipKat]

Four keys for the Buffalo Bills to beat Denver Broncos, notch first win of playoffs​

Four keys for the Buffalo Bills to beat Denver Broncos, notch first win of playoffs

The Buffalo Bills hope to kick off their road to the Super Bowl with a victory over the Denver Broncos on Sunday in an AFC wild-card playoff game. Here are four keys to a Bills victory.

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Win the special teams battle​

Bills return specialist Brandon Codrington (hamstring) will be questionable heading into the game, Buffalo coach Sean McDermott said Friday.

“He’s been our primary return guy all year, so we’ll deal with it,” McDermott said Wednesday. “We’ll figure it out one way or the other. If he can go, great. If he can’t, then we’ll figure something out.”

On the flip side, the Broncos boast return specialist and wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr., who leads the league in yards per punt return at 15.7.
“I mean, he's an explosive player,” Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said of Mims. “There's a reason that I believe he's an AFC returner for the Pro Bowl.”


Broncos coach Sean Payton questions a call during a game against the Chargers on Dec. 19 in Inglewood, Calif. Payton led the Broncos
to a 10-7 record in his season. Kyusung Gong, Associated Press

Ready for the pass rush​

Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady knows what he’s up against. The Broncos lead the league with 63 sacks this season.

“The reason they're in the playoffs, especially on defense, is the way the defensive line plays,” Brady said. “We know we're going to get the best and, you know, fortunately, I have so much confidence in our offensive line.”

Buffalo has done the league’s best job in protecting the quarterback, allowing just 14 sacks. It’s a meeting of strength versus strength, and Bills quarterback Josh Allen is an integral part for Buffalo.

“Fortunately,” Brady said, “We have a guy that, when things do break down or when the pocket isn't as dirty, he finds a way to be Josh Allen.”

And ready for the rest of the defense​

It’s not just the Broncos' defensive line that has thrived. The Bills know their problems don’t end there.

“We’ve got to make sure that we’ve got everything buttoned up,” McDermott said. “The details we need in order to execute at the level we’re going to need to execute at, and then we gotta take it one play at a time and take what they give us at the same time, because it’s a heck of a challenge.”

Brady didn’t want to reveal game plans, but once again, he feels the Bills have the talent to match players such as Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II.

“There's only so much you can do when you're going against a great corner,” Brady said. “But we do have great wide receivers.”

Find any edge possible​

The Bills are not the underdog heading into this game. But they thrive on the mentality that they’ve been doubted, and Friday brought them some bulletin board material. With the announcement of the 2024 Associated Press All-Pro Team, the Bills are sure to feel slighted. Only Allen was recognized, and that was to the second team. Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson was the first-team quarterback. Meanwhile, the Broncos had three players selected, and two players earned second-team recognition. If the perceived snubs can add some fire to the Bills, the team should lean into it. Take it personally, and show why on Sunday.

 

[HipKat]

Broncos-Bills on Wild Card Weekend Sunday: What We Learned from Buffalo's 31-7 win

FULL BOX SCORE

• REWATCH: Broncos-Bills on NFL+ Premium
• READ: Bills dominate to set up anticipated Ravens rematch in Divisional Round
• READ: Nix says Broncos' 'trajectory is going up' after loss to Bills ends season

1. Allen, Bills blast past Broncos in convincing fashion. Josh Allen is inevitable. The Broncos' defense quieted the big Bills plays in the first half, keeping the game close at the break. However, you can only keep down Allen for so long. Buffalo marched up and down the field most of the contest, but red zone stalls suppressed the scoreboard. Then, Allen exploded. Facing a fourth-and-1 at the 24, Allen bought time, surveyed like a civil engineer, and dropped a seed to Ty Johnson, who made an impressive grab in the back of the end zone. Following a three-and-out by Denver, Allen then dropped a deep shot to Curtis Samuel for a 55-yard TD. The rout was on. Allen later spun another deep dime to Dalton Kincaid for 35 yards. After being held to 69 passing yards in the first half, Allen punctured a tired Denver D at will in the final two quarters, finishing with 272 passing yards and two passing TDs on 20-of-26 passing for a 135.4 passer rating. After trailing 7-0 early, the Bills blitzed a good Broncos defense for 31 consecutive points. When Allen gets it rolling, even the best defenses are overmatched.
   
   
2. Nix starts hot but can't sustain drives to keep pace. The Broncos took the first uppercut, hitting the Bills with a 43-yard hammer to open the game. Bo Nix capped off a flawless first drive with a perfect bomb to former Oregon teammate Troy Franklin for the score. The design was perfect by Sean Payton, taking advantage of the Bills' tendencies, and Nix put it on the money. After the first drive, however, Denver couldn't keep up. The Broncos went three-and-out three times in the contest. A missed field goal to end the first half took the wind out of their sails. Payton's decision to punt from the Bills' 39-yard-line in the second quarter -- after previously converting a fake punt in his own territory -- stung in real time and looks worse in hindsight. Nix had a sensational rookie season but couldn't keep it going, particularly in the second half. He generated just 42 passing yards in the second half after 102 through the opening two quarters. The lack of rushing aid didn't help Nix's cause either.
   
   
3. Bills' run game rolls. Buffalo smashed the Denver defense over and over and over and over and over again on the ground Sunday. James Cook bowled over defenders on his way to 120 yards and a touchdown on 23 totes, keeping the Bills in positive down-and-distances and churning the clock. Buffalo's ability to keep Vance Joseph's defense on the field wore down a good unit. The Bills held the ball for a whopping 41 minutes, 43 seconds. Add in Josh Allen's ability to plow for first downs with his legs, and the Bills' ground game couldn't be contained. Buffalo galloped for 210 yards on the ground. It was the most rushing yards the Broncos allowed all season (the previous high was 149 versus Indianapolis in Week 15). When the Bills' ground game is churning yards like that, forcing safeties into the box, it eventually opens up the deep shots for Allen. That dual-threat ability makes the Bills dangerous against any defense.
   
   
4. Broncos break playoff futility streak, but a noticeable gap with AFC elite remains. Denver played its first postseason game since Super Bowl 50, breaking an ignominious streak. Bo Nix proved he could be the franchise signal-caller of the future under Payton, and the building blocks are in the building. However, there remains a distance between Denver and the conference's elite. The Bills simply outmatched the Broncos on Sunday, winning in every facet. An early salvo from Denver threatened to make things interesting, but Sean McDermott's defense smothered Payton's offense, and the Buffalo O rolled at will. In Year 2 of Payton's reign in Denver, optimism is warranted. The Broncos have their quarterback. After years of cycling through failing options, that's a massive piece of the puzzle. Now, Nix must continue to develop, and the Broncos must continue to build around the signal-caller to close the gap with the upper echelon.
   
   
5. Chalk in the AFC Divisional Round. The Bills' romp culminated an AFC wild-card round in which all three of the conference's higher seeds handled business. After Houston and Baltimore won going away on Saturday, Buffalo put up an even more resounding victory against the AFC's No. 7 seed. The victory marked the fifth consecutive season in which Buffalo won its wild-card matchup. Next up: the Ravens in the Divisional Round. Buffalo will host the AFC North champs in a rematch of a Week 4 35-10 Baltimore blowout, in which Lamar Jackson's offense built a 21-3 halftime lead and never looked back. The battle of the MVP candidates profiles as the biggest matchup of the Divisional Round.

Next Gen Stats Insight from Broncos-Bills (via NFL Pro): Bo Nix was pressured on 14 of his 27 dropbacks in his playoff debut against the Bills (51.9% pressure rate), the highest pressure rate he faced as a rookie.

NFL Research: James Cook is the first Bills player with 100-plus rushing yards in a playoff game since Hall of Famer Thurman Thomas in the 1995 Wild Card Round. Cook and Thomas (five times) are the only players to have 100+ rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in a playoff game in Bills history.

 

[HipKat]

Takeaways, game balls, gassers from Buffalo Bills' playoff win over Denver Broncos

In the 2nd half, the Buffalo Bills broke things open in their AFC wild-card game against the Denver Broncos with a 24-yard touchdown catch by Ty Johnson and, on the opening play of the fourth quarter, a 55-yard touchdown catch by Curtis Samuel.

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen escapes pressure from Broncos defensive tackle Malcolm Roach during the first quarter of
Sunday’s game at Highmark Stadium. Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News

Who had Curtis Samuel and Ty Johnson on their Buffalo Bills Playoff Touchdown Bingo Card? The guess is not many.

Letting the Denver Broncos hang around for almost three quarters Sunday, the Bills broke open their AFC wild-card playoff game with a 24-yard touchdown catch by Johnson and, on the opening play of the fourth quarter, a 55-yard touchdown catch by Samuel.

In 17 regular-season games, Samuel and Johnson combined for four touchdown catches (Samuel one, Johnson three).

The Bills (14-4) beat the Broncos 31-7 to earn a divisional-round home game against the Baltimore Ravens (13-5). The Broncos ended their season at 10-8.

Here is recap of Broncos-Bills:

Takeaways​

The Broncos’ first touchdown was schemed up well by coach/play-caller Sean Payton. On second-and-4, rookie wide receiver Troy Franklin lined up in a tight split next to the offensive line. At the snap, Franklin ran straight downfield, splitting safety Taylor Rapp (inside) and cornerback Rasul Douglas (outside) to get open for a 43-yard touchdown catch. Franklin’s previous long catch was 30 yards.

Sometimes it takes the help of friends to push you downfield. On the Bills’ second drive, running back James Cook got 6 yards beyond the line of scrimmage before left tackle Dion Dawkins … and then left guard David Edwards … and then right guard O’Cyrus Torrence helped push, pull and drag Cook another 10 yards.

The Bills got a break as the first half ended. Denver started at its 8-yard line and 1:52 remaining and drove to the Bills’ 32 after a 21-yard catch by receiver Courtland Sutton. A bad Bills defensive possession was bailed out, though, when Wil Lutz clanged a 50-yard field attempt off the right upright.

A bit of Allen magic helped stretch the Bills lead to 21-7 with 3:06 left in the third quarter. On fourth-and-1, Allen dodged defenders for 6.78 seconds before throwing a 24-yard touchdown to Johnson. Johnson’s sliding catch was upheld after review, and Allen converted the two-point conversion with a pass to receiver Keon Coleman.

The Bills put the game away on the opening play of the fourth quarter. Facing third-and-6, the Bills lined up four receivers in a tight bunch left. At the snap, Samuel ran a sail route, and Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II was caught flat-footed. Samuel caught Allen’s pass at the 33 and broke linebacker Drew Sanders’ tackle at the 13 for a 55-yard touchdown to make it 28-7 with 14:49 remaining. Samuel’s longest catch in the regular season was 38 yards.

Did you notice?​

The Bills ran six plays in the Broncos’ red zone on their opening drive, but totaled only 10 yards, capped by consecutive incomplete passes by Allen that forced a 26-yard Tyler Bass field goal to cut Denver’s lead to 7-3. Early in the drive, the Bills used a personnel group of three receivers/two tight ends with receiver Curtis Samuel motioning out of the backfield.

Bills nickel cornerback Taron Johnson was injured at the 6:19 mark of the first quarter when he collided helmet-to-helmet with Broncos running back Javonte Williams. Johnson walked off the field slowly and the Bills turned to Ja’Marcus Ingram at nickel. Johnson was cleared of a concussion and returned.

To end Denver’s second drive, on a sack by linebacker Matt Milano, the Bills used a 3-2-6 package (three lineman, two linebackers, six defensive backs) instead of their usual 4-1-6 dime personnel.

The Bills took their first lead (10-7) on a 13-play, 81-yard drive that consumed 7:35. It was the Bills’ fourth touchdown drive this year that took longer than seven minutes – 9:07 at Seattle, 7:38 vs. San Francisco and 7:16 at New England.

Tight end Dalton Kincaid had a season-best 35-yard catch in the fourth quarter; his previous long was 29 yards.

Receiver Khalil Shakir handled the Bills’ punt returns because of the hamstring injury to rookie Brandon Codrington. They were Shakir’s first punt returns of the season – he had three in 2022 and five in 2023. Shakir had a 23-yard return late in the third quarter.

The Bills rushed for 100 yards on their first two possessions, most by any team in a playoff game since 2015.

Left tackle Dion Dawkins was called for two false starts in the second quarter, his fifth multi-penalty game of the year (Arizona, at Seattle, at Indianapolis, at the Rams).

Game balls​

RB James Cook. He rushed 23 times for a season-high 120 yards and one touchdown. The Bills rushed for 210 yards on 44 carries.
RB Ty Johnson. His 24-yard touchdown catch on fourth down gave the Broncos a 21-7 lead.
WR Curtis Samuel. His 55-yard touchdown – his longest catch of the year – made it 28-7 Bills on the first play of the fourth quarter.
QB Josh Allen. He departed with 3:20 left in the game after completing 20 of 26 passes for 272 yards (two touchdowns) and rushing eight times for 46 yards.

Gassers​

Red-zone offense. The Bills went 1 of 5 in the red zone. That won’t cut it next weekend against Baltimore.
Fake punt alerts. For the second time in four games, the Bills’ punt-coverage team gave up a successful fake punt play. New England did it running in Week 16, and the Broncos did it passing (15 yards to Marvin Mims Jr.). On the Mims play, Ingram retreated too quickly up the field.
WR Mack Hollins. After his 19-yard catch to the Broncos’ 2, he was called for a 15-yard taunting penalty that moved the Bills back to the 18.

Next​

The Bills advance to the AFC’s divisional round for the fifth consecutive year and will host the Baltimore Ravens, who beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night. The Ravens handed the Bills their first loss of the season in Week 4, 35-10 in Baltimore.

 

[HipKat]

Ryan O'Halloran: Bludgeoning the Broncos? Check. Now time for Bills to do same against Ravens

Playoff Step No. 1 completed. Statement to the Baltimore Ravens and the rest of the NFL sent. This Bills team is just as capable of winning a fistfight as it is a track meet.

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James Cook knew after he gained 16 yards on his first carry. Dion Dawkins and Connor McGovern knew from the Buffalo Bills’ initial offensive drive. Everybody else knew, too.

The Bills were going to run it, run it a lot and run it some more to combat the Denver Broncos’ NFL-best pass rush in Sunday’s AFC wild-card game. And run it really, really well.

Once, maybe twice a year does the intended script play out as planned, and it happened in the Bills’ mostly thorough and primarily comfortable 31-7 win over the Broncos.


Bills running back James Cook runs through a tackle attempt by Broncos linebacker Cody Barton to score a 5-yard touchdown in Sunday’s second quarter.
Joshua Bessex, Buffalo News

Cook ran well. Ty Johnson ran well. Josh Allen ran well. They ran over, around and through Broncos defenders. Allen converted third and fourth downs on sneaks and keepers, Cook charged around the edges and up the middle, and Johnson gained some ultra-tough yards.

The Bills stated their intention from the hop and never had to deviate: They were going to bludgeon the Broncos.

Playoff Step No. 1 completed. Statement to the Baltimore Ravens and the rest of the NFL sent. This Bills team is just as capable of winning a fistfight as it is a track meet.

“It felt like it was one of those games when the run game was clicking right off the bat,” said McGovern, the Bills center.

Felt like it and looked like it. Right away.

Cook ran for 16, 7, 3 and 3 yards on the first drive. Johnson ran for 11, Cook for 16 and Allen for 9, 7 and 9 yards on the second drive. The Bills became the first playoff team since 2015 to have 100 yards rushing on their opening two possessions.

The Bills were just getting going. The 41:43 seconds of possession was a franchise playoff record and the fourth-most of any regular-season or postseason game in team history. Their 210 rushing yards were the fourth-most in their playoff history.

Heady stuff … head-banging stuff.

Physical stuff … physically imposing stuff.

Great stuff. … history-making great stuff.

“The first couple plays of a football game lets you know,” Dawkins said. “One hundred percent, we knew immediately.”

(As a bonus, it was the Bills’ first playoff game with at least 200 yards rushing and passing since their 51-3 demolition of the Raiders in the 1990 AFC championship game.)

“The line of scrimmage was the way it needed it to be for us to win,” coach Sean McDermott said.

McDermott was in his version of football heaven.

Above all else, McDermott likes talking about: players with wrestling backgrounds; anything regarding former defensive lineman Kyle Williams and safety Jordan Poyer and current safety Micah Hyde; the William and Mary football program; late Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson; and winning the line of scrimmage.

When the Bills lose the line, he leads his comments with it. It ticks him off to no end.

And when the Bills win the line, he leads his comments with it. It thrills him to no end.

The Bills led 10-7 at halftime, a little too close for comfort. Denver had to enter the locker room with hope, despite missing a tying field goal as the first half expired. Get a stop and a big play, and the Bills might get tight.

Instead, Cook for 6, Cook for 6 and Cook for 19 to start the Bills’ opening third-quarter drive. The possession stalled, but the Bills led 13-7. On their next drive, the run game set up the pass and a 21-7 lead.

Cook finished with 120 yards, the third-highest total of his career. Allen looked fresh after sitting out last week’s game at New England, which reintroduces the keeper game to the Bills’ arsenal. It all worked together.

And it better work next week against the Ravens. Back in Week 4, Baltimore did the bludgeoning, blowing out the Bills 35-10. The Bills’ other two (meaningful) losses this year were by three points at Houston and two points at the Los Angeles Rams.

MVP candidate (Allen) vs. MVP candidate (Lamar Jackson).

“This is what everybody’s been waiting for, right?” McDermott said.

Pretty much, but the next layer of Ravens-Bills is future Hall of Fame running back (Derrick Henry) vs. two-time 1,000-yard rusher (Cook).

If the Bills can control the clock and run the ball, it will keep Jackson and Henry off the field.

“They put a thumping on us earlier in the year,” Allen said. “We know that, and we understand that.”

What the Bills knew and understood against the Broncos is that they needed to pile up the rushing yards. They know and understand that gives them a great chance against Baltimore.

Get ready, folks, for what is basically the Super Bowl, two quarterbacks at the height of their powers, two teams in terrific form.
Baltimore won Round 1. The Bills get Round 2 at their place, and the production of Cook and Allen in the running game will allow them to eliminate the Ravens