Former President Trump's historic felony conviction makes half of Republicans even more likely to vote for him, according to a poll in the verdict's immediate aftermath.
Why it matters: In what is gearing up to a tight race to the White House between Trump and President Biden, even small shifts in support could prove decisive.
The big picture: A YouGov poll conducted in the wake of the verdict found that 27% of voters said the conviction made them less likely to vote for Trump, while 26% said they were more likely to vote for him and 39% said the verdict "makes no difference" in how they'll vote.
Why it matters: In what is gearing up to a tight race to the White House between Trump and President Biden, even small shifts in support could prove decisive.
The big picture: A YouGov poll conducted in the wake of the verdict found that 27% of voters said the conviction made them less likely to vote for Trump, while 26% said they were more likely to vote for him and 39% said the verdict "makes no difference" in how they'll vote.
- The results were even more stark along partisan lines, with 50% of Republicans saying they're more likely to vote for Trump. Meanwhile, 44% of Democrats said they're now even less likely to vote for him.
- An ABC News/Ipsos poll released earlier this month found that 80% of Trump supporters said they would continue to support him even if he was convicted. Another 16% said they'd reconsider their support, but only 4% said they'd no longer support him.
- Despite however voters might feel now, the November election remains months away — plenty of time for Trump to recoup any support he loses as a result of the guilty verdict.
- A Marquette Law School poll released last week asked half its sample of voters how they'd vote if Trump was acquitted, and found Trump beat Biden by 6 points.
- The other half of the sample was asked how they'd vote if Trump was found guilty, and found Biden beat Trump by 4 points.
- A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last month found that Biden gained two points in a Trump matchup in which Trump was convicted of a crime, but gained six points if Trump was serving prison time as a result.
- Trump's dependence on these voters from outside his traditional MAGA base could make him particularly vulnerable in this moment, the New York Times reported.
- These Trump supporters who come from traditionally Democratic constituencies are especially likely to revert to voting Democrat in the event of a conviction, per the Times.
- The same poll found that 21% of young Trump supporters said they'd back Biden in the case of a guilty verdict. Only 2% of Trump's 65-and-older supporters said the same, per the Times.
- Among Black voters who support Trump, 27% said they'd flip to Biden in the event of a conviction, while only 5% of Trump's white supporters said the same.