Why Bills-Chiefs will be huge for Keon Coleman and GM Brandon Beane’s trade deadline strategy
Plus, when Gabe Davis could get back on the field.
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When the 2025 NFL schedule came out, one of the crowning jewels of the 18-week slate was the one happening on Sunday in Orchard Park.
Bills vs. Chiefs. With the games these two teams have had, it doesn’t need more of an explanation than that.
As the two teams prepare for a clash that could speak volumes in the race for the AFC’s No. 1 seed, there are plenty of Bills subplots heading into the showdown. And once again, all eyes are on the Buffalo offense.
Here’s our Bills notebook for Week 9.
Sunday is massive for Keon Coleman
Heading into the 2025 season, the Bills pinned their wide receiver hopes on the development of Keon Coleman. With Amari Cooper out of the way, all eyes were on Coleman. After a slow start to training camp, the second-year receiver finished the summer strong. He was routinely making plays in the final stages of camp between preseason games and built up a good rapport with Allen. It had teammates proclaiming that it was only a matter of time before Coleman broke out. It even looked like Coleman had taken that step the Bills were hoping for in Week 1 against the Ravens. As soon as the game got to the fourth quarter, and the Bills tried to erase a multi-score deficit, Coleman’s receiving went berserk. He put together seven receptions for 95 yards and one touchdown.
Then it screeched to a halt. The more the sample size grows this season and the Bills’ offense evolves, the more it looks like that fourth quarter against Baltimore was the anomaly rather than who he is as a receiver right now. After Coleman busted out for 112 yards in his Week 1 game, he gained only 155 yards over his next six — a weekly average of 25.8 yards. His receiving metrics through the first six weeks of the season are not promising, even with the spike in Week 1, and all of the key production elements have gone down from what they were when Coleman was a rookie. And that’s even with an uptick in two places where they needed him to improve to generate more for them.
Despite Coleman’s target rate rising from 17.6 percent in 2024 to 20.2 percent in 2025, and his catch rate jumping from 50.9 percent last year to 69.2 percent this season, he has seen a notable decline in several key areas, according to TruMedia and Pro Football Focus.
It’s one thing to see the decrease in stats, but pointing out where Coleman is in relation to the rest of the NFL is worth noting. And even with Week 1, Coleman ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in all four categories. Without Week 1, he has been one of the least productive receivers in the NFL. These ranks are out of 111 qualifying receivers who have run at least 100 routes this season.
And for those wondering about Coleman’s 2024 ranks, out of 143 qualifying receivers, he ranked 12th in air yards per target, 19th in receiving yards per target, 45th in EPA per target and 50th in yards per route run.
The Bills set the table for him to be that guy for their offense — to be the one who put them over the top and create a two-dimensional attack. It has instead gone the opposite way. If this trend continues, the team deserves some blame for picking him instead of some of the others from a talented receiving class, but Coleman also deserves a fair share of blame, too. He has not leveled up his game enough to this point. The separation hasn’t improved on the initial routes, and when plays break down, he hasn’t done enough to make himself consistently available for Josh Allen. Coleman has also run more routes than any other receiver on the team, and has been targeted only two fewer times than Khalil Shakir. On top of that, Coleman was benched for the first series against the Patriots for disciplinary reasons. He was also benched as a rookie in 2024 for the entire first quarter of their Week 3 game.
The focus on him hit a new intensity this week when Steve Smith, an outstanding receiver during his 16-year NFL career, devoted time to breaking down Coleman’s game on an episode of 89 with Steve Smith Sr. and James Palmer.
The added layer to Smith being the one to criticize Coleman is that Bills general manager Brandon Beane was with the Panthers for all of Smith’s 13-year career. There is, without question, a relationship between Smith and Beane, which could have made the point that much tougher to hear, but Smith didn’t hold back.
“Well, the short version: nothing,” Smith said when asked what he’s seen from Coleman since his big Week 1 performance. “I haven’t seen anything from him because he hasn’t had the opportunities, because the opportunities don’t make themselves available. He just doesn’t get open fast enough. Josh Allen looks his way. There’s a few times when it’s press coverage, Josh looks over there, but Josh gets off of him very fast….That means he’s taking too long. That means the quarterback doesn’t have confidence in your ability to get there.”
Smith also alluded to what he thought was a lack of confidence by body catching a target rather than Coleman catching with his hands and heading upfield, like, as Smith said, he used to do in his college stops at Michigan State and Florida State.
“Now what we’re seeing him do with the Buffalo Bills? He ain’t the guy,” Smith said. “Can’t get separation. Can’t get off the jam. Doesn’t have it.”
Although no context was given for Coleman’s Wednesday night post on X, it came out on the same day as Smith’s episode about him, leading many to connect the two. The post was Coleman’s first on the platform since mid-July.
On Thursday, Coleman didn’t offer much when asked if he heard Smith’s comments and what his reaction was to them.
“Nah, no comment on that. Next question,” Coleman said.
The receiver was then asked how he thinks he’s handled things during his NFL career so far, with an allusion to not wanting to comment on Smith. Coleman addressed that part of the question first.
“I don’t even really know what he said, you know what I’m saying? So that’s why I said ‘no comment,'” Coleman clarified.
Off-field matters aside, the Bills have also said they want to get Coleman more involved. To this point, the team has basically used Coleman exclusively at X receiver, but with them needing production of any kind in the passing game, you can’t rule anything out at this point. There have been many, including Smith, who have been very vocal that Coleman may be best working from the slot, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they tried to get his 2025 jump-started by attempting to feed him some easier targets over the middle of the field from that role. That doesn’t mean he’s taking snaps away from their best target in Khalil Shakir, who operates as their slot receiver, but if they go through with it, it could mean they move Shakir outside on the handful of reps when Coleman lines up inside.
Without question, the Bills’ predictability on offense makes it far easier for opponents to defend, even with Buffalo’s excellent offensive line and running game. An external receiver of some kind seems increasingly necessary for the Bills to get to where they want to go in Allen’s final season of his 20s. Opportunities to win a Super Bowl are never guaranteed year over year, making it a difficult balancing act between short-term and long-term.
But make no mistake, Sunday is a potentially huge moment in Coleman’s career, also in the short and long term. It will be his last showing before the last impactful player acquisition point of the 2025 season — the NFL trade deadline at 4 p.m. on Tuesday. If the Bills don’t see much more from Coleman during the Chiefs game than he had shown the previous six games, it could factor into the level of receiver Beane is looking to target, and how much the Bills could be willing to spend at the deadline to fortify their ailing passing game outside of the numbers.
Josh Allen had a solid rapport with Gabe Davis before Davis left the Bills via free agency.Gregory Fisher / USA Today
So what about Gabe Davis?
As the focus on the receiver room gets even more intense, the Bills made one small move on Wednesday by bringing wide receiver Gabe Davis off the practice squad injury list to the 17-player practice squad. Davis, who is coming back from a long-term knee injury that ended his 2024 season with the Jaguars, went through the paces of practice throughout the week. Considering this was his first week of practice in almost a year, expecting the Bills to throw him into a game on Sunday seems like it’s asking a bit too much.
However, it’s difficult to ignore his presence and the rapport Davis had with Allen during their four years together before Davis left via free agency. It certainly seems like, regardless of whether the Bills make a trade for a receiver next week or not, Davis is trending toward finding his way back to playing time for the Bills in 2025.
What that role looks like is going to depend on how this receiver room evolves through the trade deadline and Coleman’s development — Davis and Coleman play the same position in the Bills offense. However, there’s no doubt that the healthier Davis looks, the more tempting it will be to make him a part of their game plan. This week might not be the week, but don’t be surprised if it’s closer than you think.
Bills projected practice squad elevations: DT Phidarian Mathis, CB Dane Jackson
Bills projected inactives: WR Joshua Palmer, OT Chase Lundt, DE Landon Jackson, DT DaQuan Jones, LB Shaq Thompson, CB Ja’Marcus Ingram, KR/PR Brandon Codrington
Prediction: Chiefs 31, Bills 23
Whenever the Bills get an opportunity to play the Chiefs during the regular season — which is often — they usually get a chance to see how their team stacks up to a seemingly inevitable contender as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy. Working in several new pieces, the Bills put together their most complete defensive performance of the season against the Carolina Panthers. However, going up against the Panthers and a backup quarterback is one thing, but Mahomes and his group of receivers is an entirely different and far more difficult challenge. The Chiefs have become the most dynamic passing attack in the NFL once again, with Mahomes having an MVP-level season.
The Bills will undoubtedly be challenged in ways this new collective group of defenders has yet to experience. The most significant question for this specific opponent is how the secondary will respond to the plethora of receiving options Mahomes has at his disposal — all with different skill sets. Between Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster and others, the Bills secondary, most notably, cornerbacks Tre’Davious White and Maxwell Hairston, and safeties Jordan Poyer and Jordan Hancock, will be stress tested by Chiefs coach Andy Reid.
If the Bills were to slow Mahomes and the Chiefs offense, they need their defensive end group to have one of their best games of the season. The weak link of the Chiefs’ offensive line is offensive tackle, with Jaylon Moore at left tackle and Jawaan Taylor at right. With so much in flux at defensive tackle for the Bills this week following Ed Oliver’s injury, the Bills’ edge rushers performing well is paramount to their cause. It’s generally unwise to blitz Mahomes, putting more pressure on the front four to keep Mahomes uncomfortable, and along the way, helping the secondary in a difficult matchup. Greg Rousseau, Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa and Michael Hoecht will need to play a big role.
Ultimately, I think we’ll see some progress from the Bills’ passing offense to help keep the Chiefs from completely putting all their attention on stopping the Bills’ rushing attack, but perhaps not the step forward the Bills would hope for. I think they’ll be able to move the ball, and may have to settle for more field goals than they’d like against the Chiefs. As the teams stand now, there are too many questions for me about the defense and how they stack up to the Chiefs’ current passing offense to expect a full slowdown of Mahomes. It should be a close game for much of the evening, but I think the Chiefs will beat the Bills in the regular season for the first time since 2020.
