Bills-Falcons: Who you got? Buffalo News writers make their predictions for Monday's game


Jay Skurski​

The Bills are 22-6 following a loss since 2019, including a 10-2 mark on the road after a loss. Interestingly enough, however, they are just 4-4 under Sean McDermott heading into the bye week, and sitting on a loss for that long stinks. The Bills will definitely want to avoid that heading into their break on the schedule this year. The Falcons, who are 7-1 in their last eight appearances on "Monday Night Football," won’t be a rollover opponent at home. Bills, 30-25.

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Bills quarterback Josh Allen hasn't faced the Falcons since the 2022 season. Buffalo News file photo

Katherine Fitzgerald​

The Falcons are still figuring out their identity this season, but they have plenty of pieces to build around. Still, the Bills are looking for a get-right game, and it's a shame for the Falcons that they will bear the brunt. The Bills are still looking to put together a complete game, and Monday presents a great opportunity. Even while still nursing several injuries on defense, the Bills have the edge here. Look for Josh Allen and James Cook to spearhead a win heading into Buffalo's bye. Bills, 34-28.

Lance Lysowski​

The Falcons are coming off a bye, and their quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., had one of his best games as a starter in Week 4 with 313 yards. Their running back, Bijan Robinson, is one of the best in the NFL, and their top receiver, Drake London, is especially difficult to cover when he lines up in the slot. This should be a high-scoring game, but Penix will throw at least one interception and the Bills won't commit the same uncharacteristic mistakes that prevented their offense from outscoring the Patriots. Bills, 35-24.

Steve Trosky​

The Bills have been good through five weeks, but they haven't been great. Will they finally put it all together on Monday? I think so. The Falcons present a formidable challenge with Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson, but you have to think Bills coach Sean McDermott will motivate his crew to perform better. The Eagles' performance Thursday against the Giants is a warning. If you don't play well, you will lose, no matter the opponent. The Bills get back on the right track. Bills, 31-27.
 

Bills-Falcons numbers to know: These 4 stats could shape 'Monday Night Football'​


22-6​

Since 2019, the Bills are 22-6 following a loss and 10-2 when playing a road game following a loss. Last season, excluding Week 18, Buffalo went 2-1 following a loss and averaged 30.3 points per game, including a 48-42 road win over the Detroit Lions. Josh Allen is 24-8 in his career following a loss, one of three quarterbacks with a winning percentage of at least .700. He trails only Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.

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Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions in four games this season.
David Becker, Associated Press


4.2​

Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has averaged 4.2 yards after contact per carry, the third-highest mark among anyone at his position with at least 50 carries this season, according to Next Gen Stats. The Bills have made contact with opposing running backs at the third-highest rate in the NFL, but they rank 30th in explosive run rate allowed and yards after contact allowed per carry. Robinson has 314 rushing yards and one touchdown on 64 rushes, and he's a receiving threat with 18 catches for 270 yards.

154​

Among teams to play five games, Buffalo has allowed the fewest passing yards per game (154) and ranks seventh in Next Gen Stats' expected points added per pass completion allowed. However, the Bills also have faced the fewest pass attempts, and opponents may start to test them more following Drake Maye's success in the Patriots' win in Week 5. Michael Penix Jr., the Falcons' second-year quarterback, completed 76.9% of his passes for 313 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in a Week 4 win over the Commanders.

5.2​

The Bills have averaged 5.2 yards per rush on second down, according to Next Gen Stats, and they have six rushes of 10-plus yards. They've passed more often on second down, though, with Buffalo averaging 8.2 yards on its 62 attempts. Despite their first-down success, the Bills use play-action on second down less often than all but three NFL teams. Allen's play-action completion percentage (76.5) is fifth-highest in the league
 
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