Bills notebook: Offense looks to bounce back, MNF prediction vs. Falcons, Ed Oliver is ‘ready’
While LB Matt Matt Milano is likely out, who are the leaders in the clubhouse for the suspended player roster spots?
www.nytimes.com
Following their first loss of the 2025 season, the Buffalo Bills have only one more game ahead of their Week 7 bye. The last thing they’ll want is to head into a week off on a two-game losing streak.
Not only would they not want that, but it would be unprecedented for the Bills since Sean McDermott’s arrival in 2017. Since McDermott became the coach, although having only a 4-4 record before the bye, the Bills have never entered their week off on a two-game losing streak.
They’ll look to continue that on “Monday Night Football” on the road against the Atlanta Falcons, with the Falcons entering the matchup having had the weekend off for their annual bye. McDermott’s record against the NFC has also been sterling throughout his career.
Since the Bills’ playoff streak began in 2019, they have won 23 out of 29 games against NFC opponents — though they’ve taken one loss per season to an NFC opponent from 2019 through 2024. It’s happened on the road four out of those six seasons, including the last two years.
How will this Bills team enter their Week 7 bye, and what are some things to monitor going into the matchup? Here’s our Week 6 Bills notebook.
Bills’ offense is looking to bust through
Although the defense has taken its fair share of criticism this season, it’s the offense that needed to take a critical look within over the week to find some answers. Over their first four games, there were some warning signs that a clunker, by their lofty standards anyway, could be on the way, as it happened in their Week 5 loss to the New England Patriots. Although the Bills managed 30 or more points in every game through the first four weeks, it wasn’t an overwhelming performance, with an underlying issue that they were leaving some meat on the bone.That was magnified, as the Patriots did an excellent job against the Bills’ running game and challenged them to win through the air and downfield, which the Bills were unable to do consistently. There were some signs of life, including the first two drives of the second half, but one of those ended in a turnover and helped breathe life into the upset.
“I think it’s a wake-up call, reset, whatever you want to call it. We have been getting by, previous games, of maybe not playing our best football,” quarterback Josh Allen said this week. “And when you play a team who did everything the right way — credit to (the Patriots) for coming into our home stadium and having a really good game plan — it does wake you up in terms of like, ‘Hey, every week we’re gonna get the team’s best, whoever we’re playing’s best.’
“We’ve got to play up to our standard. At the end of the day, this is the NFL. Each and every week has got to be earned, and that starts in practice.”
For the Bills, starting quickly will be paramount, as they managed only three points in the first half against the Patriots. Part of their issue in the past game was due to penalties, misidentifying some reads, while also struggling to get out of their own way. Throughout the locker room, the Bills’ offense has spoken like a team knowing they are much better than what they showed this past week against the Patriots, and even when they had some in-game lulls during their previous victories.
Their hands will be full against a much-improved Falcons defense, but the Bills went deep into self-scouting and heightening their awareness of what let them down last week, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a big answer on the road.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6698187/2025/10/08/bills-wide-receivers-problem-trade-deadline/
The wait is over; Ed Oliver says he’s back
When starting defensive tackle Ed Oliver suffered a mid-week injury in practice ahead of their Week 2 matchup, the team didn’t put him on injured reserve, with the hope that he could return before the minimum four-game absence a trip to injured reserve would carry. Oliver gave it a go last week ahead of the Patriots game, but ultimately wasn’t ready enough to play and was forced to miss his fourth straight game. After four games of waiting, their most disruptive interior pass rusher is strongly hinting he’s back for the Falcons game.“I feel good. I feel a lot better than last week, a lot more confident,” Oliver said on Thursday. “I’m ready.”
Oliver had one of his best professional games during the team’s Week 1 victory over the Baltimore Ravens, and was initially forlorn about not being able to continue on his early-season success immediately due to the injury. Oliver’s return comes at a perfect time, with rookie defensive tackle T.J. Sanders looking quite likely to miss a second straight game with a knee injury.
Oliver’s return will give the Bills their first regular defensive tackle rotation since Week 1. Since Oliver’s injury, one-technique DaQuan Jones has had to moonlight at three-technique in each game, as the Bills have tried to get by. With Oliver back, it will shift Jones into his more natural role, put rookie one-technique Deone Walker back into a rotational role and allow for a three-technique, like Jordan Phillips, to be elevated for the upcoming game. Having players in their usual roles could do wonders for a rush defense and pass rush that have been inconsistent throughout Oliver’s injury.
Likely no Milano, so what’s the play at LB?
With Matt Milano out of both practices to begin the week, it’s likely a long shot for the starting outside linebacker to play against the Falcons, especially with a full week off right after that contest. But without Milano, the Bills may have a decision ahead of them on who starts next to Terrel Bernard in Week 6. During Milano’s first injury stint this season, and all of last year when he was out, Dorian Williams was in the starting lineup for the Bills. Williams, who missed Week 5 with a knee injury, progressed to a full participant Friday, which is usually a promising sign for the player’s game availability.However, the dynamics have changed a bit since Milano’s last injury stint, which kept him out of both their Week 3 and Week 4 victories. Since the start of the season, veteran Shaq Thompson has taken advantage of any opportunities he’s received on defense. He has routinely made impactful plays in a third linebacker role on base defense when offenses trot out heavier personnel and has quickly earned the trust of the coaching staff.
Then, with Williams unavailable against the Patriots and Milano injured for the second half, Thompson was one of their better defenders in the second half as he played next to Bernard in all scenarios. There is a bit of stability with Thompson that Williams may lack, specifically in coverage when teams have been able to take advantage of Williams in play-action opportunities. Thompson has loads of experience and plenty against this exact opponent, having played in the NFC South his entire career. With his recent play, there is a lot of momentum building for Thompson to potentially replace Williams in the outside linebacker role. The Bills love Thompson, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him get the start on Monday.
Leaders in the clubhouse for suspended player roster spots
With only one game left in the suspensions of defensive end Michael Hoecht and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, it means the Bills will need to make a roster spot for each player after they return from their Week 7 bye. Last week, we went over some candidates to find those roster spots, but the situation has changed slightly since the weekend of the Patriots game. As it stands today, there are now two very clear candidates for removal.The first is return specialist Brandon Codrington. Codrington has been a healthy scratch each of the last two weeks, and that streak may continue into Monday night, even with the sudden injury to Curtis Samuel. The Bills trust Khalil Shakir to return punts, and have used both Ty Johnson and Ray Davis to return kickoffs, which makes Codrington’s hold on the 53 tenuous.
The other likely candidate for roster removal appears to be Jimmy Ciarlo, whom the Bills signed to the 53-man roster ahead of the Patriots game. Ciarlo was brought up for special teams purposes only, but now that Williams is likely back, his hold on a 53-man roster spot is on shaky ground. As both players are more special teams luxury pieces at this point in the year, barring injuries in Week 6, they are the likeliest path to Hoecht and Ogunjobi.
Bills practice squad call-ups: DT Jordan Phillips, S Jordan Poyer
Bills projected inactives: WR Curtis Samuel, OT Chase Lundt, DT T.J. Sanders, LB Matt Milano, LB Jimmy Ciarlo, S Damar Hamlin, KR/PR Brandon Codrington
(**Subject to change following Saturday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 34, Falcons 23
The Falcons boast an impressive collection of talent, with their offense standing out most. Led by running back Bijan Robinson and a plus offensive line, Robinson can challenge defenses in all ways. He’s patient, explosive, makes the right reads and can jump cut a defender out of his socks. On top of that, his contact balance is outstanding, which will test the Bills’ season-long challenge with securing tackles in a big way. Additionally, his pass-catching is a nightmare in one-on-one man coverage settings, so expect the Bills to try to avoid that as much as possible.Ultimately, I think where the Bills can find their footing the most is in how they defend quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who will be making only his eighth career start this week. Penix can certainly throw the ball well when he has time, but the Bills’ biggest key will be to move the quarterback off his spot. If they’re able to do that, his accuracy and decision-making could wane, creating opportunities for turnovers. That’s where the Bills could get back on track, and with a few more shortened fields and successful offensive drives, I think they’ll head to the bye week with a 5-1 record.
