The
Bills have a couple of key moments coming up on their schedule. In Week 11, they’ll play host to the undefeated
Chiefs in one of the games of the year.
Right after, they’ll get a full week off with a bye to recharge their batteries for the stretch run and playoffs. But before all that is a sneaky road game with the
Colts, who sit only one spot and one game out of the final AFC playoff spot.
What stands out this week from a Bills perspective heading into the game, and what are some pieces of the matchup to be aware of before the two teams meet? Here is our Week 10 Bills notebook.
What to expect at wide receiver this weekend?
The Bills have been working through their evolving receiver position seemingly all season, and on Sunday it appears they may have to do the juggling act without two of their top three. Rookie wide receiver
Keon Coleman suffered a wrist injury late against the
Dolphins that has kept him out of practice on Wednesday and Thursday. While he tried to do some work along the sideline with the strength and conditioning staff, he still may not be able to play Sunday. On top of that, trade acquisition
Amari Cooper, who sat out last weekend with a wrist injury of his own, has been limited to begin the week. During the portion of practice open to the media on Thursday, Cooper was not going through his full complement of reps, which might mean the Bills attempt to play it safe with him for a second week in a row. Cooper was also sporting a small cast on his left wrist, which also puts into question his availability.
If the Bills are without both players, that would put a large workload on
Khalil Shakir — perhaps his biggest of the season — along with
Mack Hollins.
Curtis Samuel will likely see his role increase, and that would pave the way for a pair of practice squad elevations. Given that they’ll need receiver help more than special teams work, it might be time for
KJ Hamler to make his Bills debut. From there, it’s a toss up between
Tyrell Shavers and
Jalen Virgil, but because Shavers only has one call-up so far and Virgil has two out of a maximum of three, bringing Shavers up makes the most sense. No matter what, the Bills may be quite shorthanded at receiver when they take on the Colts on Sunday.
Bills defense has a potential fight on its hands
While the Bills offense may be a bit shorthanded, the defense will have to contend with a Colts offensive line that can win with physicality, and one of the most talented running backs in the league in
Jonathan Taylor. The Colts have a talented offensive line that plays well together, and excellent left tackle
Bernhard Raimann appears to be on track to play after missing last week with a concussion. As they failed to do last week at the line of scrimmage, the Bills defensive line has to win that battle far more often this week to deal with this collective group.
There was a heavy emphasis all week on fine-tuning their “block destruction technique” as Bills defensive coordinator Bobby Babich called it. For instance, on Thursday, right after the Bills got done with the special teams period, they had all their defenders pair up down one line and do a block-shedding technique drill for several minutes. That is abnormal in most practices during the year. Usually, the team goes from special teams to positional drills immediately. The Colts surely saw the same things on film, and will likely look to test the Bills immediately. It also extends to the physicality needed to push past the Colts’ pass-blocking.
If there is a potential liability among the Colts’ solid offensive line, it would be on the right side. Right guard
Dalton Tucker is a replacement for usual starter
Will Fries, who had been playing like one of the best guards in the
NFL. Fries went on injured reserve in early October. Right tackle
Braden Smith is a good run blocker but can be beaten in pass protection, which is another potential opportunity for defensive end
Greg Rousseau to shine sporadically. However, with Raimann back in the lineup, the Colts have one of the better offensive lines the Bills will see this season.
Jordan Phillips is on his third stint with the Bills and hopes to stick past this season. (Joshua Bessex / Getty Images)
Sunday likely starts a defensive tackle tryout
Even though the Bills didn’t make a trade on deadline day Tuesday, they were still plenty active in trying to fix what they believed to be one of their most significant weaknesses. The Bills and head coach Sean McDermott were unhappy with some of their run-defending last weekend. Despite the Bills needing to defend the Dolphins slightly differently due to the pressure they put on the perimeter, there were still too many instances of defensive linemen not getting off their blocks well enough to give the linebackers more of a chance. That’s why they went out and brought in Quinton Jefferson and
Jordan Phillips for their defensive tackle group.
Jefferson and Phillips haven’t played in a while, so they are healthy and fresh and have vast familiarity with the Bills’ defensive scheme. Phillips’ run-defending has left a bit to be desired throughout his years in Buffalo, though he still provides a spark defensively that can help raise the overall level of play. Jefferson is more of a versatile defensive lineman that can help in run support. But the addition of both players does not seem permanent by any stretch. The Bills are hopeful that both defensive end
Dawuane Smoot and defensive tackle
DeWayne Carter can return this season from IR, and those roster spots need to come from somewhere.
Phillips said on Wednesday that he’s hoping to “stick,” which means there’s a clear understanding that it isn’t permanent. Phillips, Jefferson and even
Austin Johnson will be vying for a spot or two as the season unfolds. Johnson struggled in run support last weekend, which likely necessitated some moves at defensive tackle, so his spot could be up for grabs. Rookie defensive tackle
Zion Logue has been a healthy scratch for weeks, and they released him on Thursday. But this Sunday is a huge test for all of Phillips, Jefferson and Johnson, and could be the start of a multi-week tryout to see who will be with the team by the end of the year.
The Colts’ and Bills’ defensive philosophies are Spiderman-meme-esque
When the Bills and Colts take the field, the two defenses are close to mirror images in their approach. It’s all about a heavy emphasis on getting pressure from the team’s defensive line and an all-for-one, one-for-all coverage style to get opposing offenses off the field. According to TruMedia, the Bills have one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL at 11.1 percent while playing zone coverage 73.6 percent of their snaps. The Colts’ blitz rate is shockingly similar at 12.2 percent, though the Colts actually play zone at an even higher rate than the Bills at 79 percent. The Bills and Colts also play a heavy amount of Cover-2 and Cover-3. So when the Bills’ offense is preparing for the Colts’ defense, there is likely to be a lot of principled familiarities in what the offense saw every day in training camp ahead of the season. However, there is one primary difference between the two from a personnel standpoint, and that could lead to an advantage for the Bills on Sunday.
What might the Bills do on offense to exploit the Colts defense?
When looking at the numbers of the Colts’ personnel usage on defense, one thing stands out. They are among the league leaders in using base defense, with four defensive linemen, three linebackers and only four defensive backs. Their 221 snaps in base defense ranks fourth in the league, which can help the Bills for a bevy of reasons. The first is because, as we pointed out earlier, there is a legitimate chance they’ll be without two of their top three receivers, as Cooper and Coleman are potentially out. The second is because this type of matchup is part of the vision for why they invested so heavily in their duo of tight ends. The Bills haven’t been shy about using 12 personnel (two tight ends) so far this season, and with an opponent that prefers to keep a third linebacker on the field, the injuries plus the opponent could set a new season high for that personnel grouping. It would push
Dalton Kincaid into their de facto third receiver for this matchup, rather than forcing one of Curtis Samuel or a practice squad receiver into that role. Kincaid and receiver Khalil Shakir both do quite well against zone coverage, so it makes sense from that side, too.
On top of the 12 personnel piece, the Bills should be able to run the ball against this Colts defensive line successfully.
DeForest Buckner is still incredibly impactful from his defensive tackle spot, but there are some exploitable matchups in that phase. The
Vikings stuck with their ground game and found their way to 110 yards. Especially with how well rookie
Ray Davis ran in limited action last week, he may have created a few more opportunities for himself within a game to spell
James Cook. That also plays into more 12 personnel because the more they can run and pass out of it successfully, the more unpredictable they’ll be against a Colts defense that keeps everything in front of them. If the ground game provides some early success, they could get a cornerback or safety to pinch in just enough to push the ball down the field for a key gain.
Bills practice squad elevations: WR Tyrell Shavers, WR KJ Hamler
(**The Bills could use their empty roster spot on a wide receiver rather than a standard elevation)
Bills projected inactives: FB
Reggie Gilliam, WR Amari Cooper, WR Keon Coleman, OL
Will Clapp, LB
Nicholas Morrow, LB
Edefuan Ulofoshio
(**Subject to change after Friday’s practice)
Prediction: Bills 26, Colts 21
Dealing with some injuries and a Colts roster that plays better on film than their record indicates, this is a sneaky matchup for the Bills. Limiting Taylor and their ground game will be a true test after the Dolphins ran the ball exceptionally well last week, and the
Ravens, who are similarly physical blockers to the Colts, did so about a month ago, too. The defensive line and linebackers must play better than they did a week ago, but without as much speed and pre-snap eye candy to deal with as last week, there should be some optimism the Bills can eventually get it figured out against the Colts.
On offense, even potentially without Cooper and Coleman in the lineup, they should have enough between quarterback
Josh Allen, their running backs, offensive line, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid to move the ball effectively enough all game. Allen showed remarkable patience against a Dolphins team that didn’t blitz all that often, and he’ll need to do the same against the Colts on Sunday. Due to the potential receiver shortage, this could wind up being one of Kincaid’s highest-usage games.
Ultimately, I think the Bills have enough on offense to stay ahead throughout the contest, but the Colts’ collection of offensive skill players will keep the game uncomfortably close at times. If the pass rushers can get to quarterback
Joe Flacco, it will go a long way in the matchup. While it may be a tough matchup, there is enough in the Bills’ favor to see them extend their winning streak to five games and an 8-2 record.
1. Off to another 7-2 start
2. Facing a new-look Colts
4. Slowing Jonathan Taylor
5. Last 1:00 PM game until Dec 22
