A home game was nice while it lasted for the
Buffalo Bills.
Fresh off a blowout victory, they’ll complete their arduous four road games out of five stretch with a casual 5200-mile roundtrip to Seattle this weekend. By the end of Sunday, the Bills will have played five of their last seven games on the road, carrying a 2-2 road record heading into the contest.
What stands out most about the Bills’ matchup with the 4-3
Seahawks? It’s mostly all eyes on the defense and a potential X-factor on offense in our Week 8 Bills notebook.
Although it wasn’t as much of a talking point following the
Titans game, the Bills’ overall struggle in limiting explosive plays that gain ten or more yards has become a worrisome feature of their defense. Over their three games against the
Ravens,
Texans and
Jets, the Bills allowed a whopping 47 plays of ten or more yards, for an explosive play rate of 26.7 percent. Against the Titans, it looked like the Bills were also about to go down the same path.
Over their first three defensive series, the Bills defense allowed eight gains of ten or more yards — and that was only on 24 total plays, which at 33.3 percent was even worse than their three-game explosive play rate versus better competition. To the Bills’ credit, they got it out of their system early on and allowed only four explosive plays over the Titans’ final 42 (not including the end-of-half lateral fest). But again, there’s a vast difference between the Titans’ skill group and previous opponents.
Fast forward to this week against the Seahawks, a Bills defense that allows a high rate of explosive plays is up against an offense that majors in gaining them. And the Seahawks boast one of the biggest home-run-hitting running backs in the
NFL in Kenneth Walker III. When you watch him on film, he is usually looking for the crease out wide to break a big one, trying to use either a defender’s hesitance or aggressiveness against them.
In past seasons, Walker III was really only a threat as a rusher, but 2024 is different. Of his 13 explosive plays in five games, seven of them were rushing attempts and the rest were all as a receiver. Regardless of play type, when he gets out wide, that’s one of his favorite areas to strike for those big plays, which emphasizes the Bills’ defenders in the lineup.
The Bills will enter the matchup likely without their best run-defending linebacker in
Terrel Bernard. Bernard, after he tweaked his ankle against the Titans, did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday. Despite his “day-to-day” listing by head coach Sean McDermott, the odds are against Bernard being ready for the Seahawks game. That will push
Baylon Spector into the lineup for Bernard in the only every-down linebacker role the Bills utilize.
Spector has struggled to get off blocks this season, which could spell trouble against a player like Walker III. Combine Spector’s spot in the lineup with the struggles at the safety position this season, and it could be a full-scale problem for the Bills on Sunday.
Damar Hamlin’s overall hesitance and occasional poor angles have opened up the door for chunk plays. The Bills will need to be aggressive with everyone on the same page to help prevent Walker III from continuing the Bills’ challenges with limiting explosive plays.
What did the Bills do to shut down the Titans’ offense after a strong start?
One of the most frequent questions after the Titans game is what the Bills did to stymie the Titans after their two scoring drives to begin the game, and if that’s something they can push forward into this weekend’s game. It was a bit of a combination effect. The Bills decided ahead of the game that they wanted to put more heat on
Mason Rudolph by blitzing at a higher rate than what the Bills had shown previously through six games. So there were a couple of times that the Bills got caught, but also, the Titans majored in pre-snap and post-snap deception over those two drives. It just came down to the Bills needing a more disciplined eye, and they settled in once they stopped taking the Titans’ bait.
From then on, the blitz rate continued at a high rate and Rudolph couldn’t do much. Through the first six games, the Bills blitzed on only 10.2 percent of their plays. Through the first three quarters against the Titans, the Bills blitzed at more than double the rate — 22.4 percent. They also played far more man coverage (30.6 percent) than they had through the first six games (18.3 percent). They wanted the Titans to prove they could beat the pressure, but the Titans couldn’t because of poor quarterbacking, receiving, and offensive line play.
While it worked for that specific opponent, it may be nothing more than a one-off. Even if they’ll be without top receiver
DK Metcalf, the Seahawks boast a quarterback and skill group that deserves a bit more of a cautious game plan than what the Bills put together against the Titans. And that will likely come with a much heavier emphasis on the front four being able to win in what looks to be a fortuitous matchup.
Greg Rousseau had a favorable matchup playing on the left side against the Titans. (Mark Konezny / Imagn Images)
All eyes on Bills defensive line
The Seahawks have passed at a high rate this season with first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, though they’ve also had to deal with some of the worst pass blocking in the NFL. Their left tackle,
Charles Cross, has been excellent this season. Outside of him, though, the rest of the group has struggled — specifically on the right side of the offensive line. Between right guard
Anthony Bradford and right tackle
Michael Jerrell, it creates a potentially huge advantage for a Bills defensive line with the talent to exploit it.
Greg Rousseau spent all of Week 7 at left defensive end — the first time he’s done so since 2022 — and the Bills saw massive results in 11 pressures and six quarterback hits. Rousseau against Jerrell is a potential matchup-flipper in the Bills’ favor, as Jerrell is their third-string right tackle after Seattle has suffered injuries to both starter
George Fant and backup
Stone Forsythe. However, there is a chance Seattle will get Fant back in the lineup this weekend. His 21-day practice window opened this week from injured reserve, though as of Thursday, it was unclear if Fant would play.
On the interior, Bradford is the best one-on-one matchup for either
Ed Oliver or
DaQuan Jones, though center
Connor Williams and right guard
Laken Tomlinson are relatively minor upgrades to Bradford. For the Bills to impact the game and put a dent in the Seahawks’ impressive passing attack, those three defenders will play a vital role.
What to expect out of Amari Cooper this week
Now with a full week-plus under his belt as a member of the Bills, the big question on offense is how much wide receiver Amari Cooper’s role would grow. Last week, Cooper had a grand total of 19 snaps and only 12 routes run. While many of the routes had an impact on the play, helping the offense complete 10-of-11 passes for 117 yards and two touchdowns, it would be unwise to expect that same production, even in an enhanced role. But the Bills are undoubtedly a better team with Cooper on the field. So how will the receiver room look this time around?
I would expect Cooper’s overall participation to go up this week. Perhaps not to the snap rates he was getting with the
Browns, which usually were between the 80 to 90 percent mark, but an increase all the same. Cooper came in with a snap rate of under 40 percent against the Titans, and it would not be a surprise for him to move closer to the 55 to 70 percent range this week. Since Cooper has shown the ability to handle the 80 to 90 percent role in the past, and the Bills have often given their top receivers around that much time on the field over several seasons, that seems like the ultimate landing place once Cooper has a firm handle on the playbook.
With
Keon Coleman’s impressive showing last week, this could be the first step of Mack Hollins’ snap rate coming down. When the Bills are in 11 personnel, the most frequently used trio will likely be Cooper, Coleman and
Khalil Shakir in the slot. Hollins will still likely play a decent role as the immediate backup to both Cooper and Coleman. With
Curtis Samuel unlikely to play this weekend, expect a practice squad call-up who can give the Bills some snaps at slot receiver if needed.
Jalen Virgil, who signed with the practice squad after final cuts, has a nice skill set that can play both inside and outside. Virgil made the
Broncos as an undrafted rookie in 2022, so there is some talent there.
Why Week 8 might be the Dalton Kincaid breakout
Second-year tight end
Dalton Kincaid had a lot of hype surrounding him entering the year, only for his overall statistical production to leave something to be desired. Some of it stems from having to contend with backup
Dawson Knox for snaps, but Kincaid has yet to provide the impact some were hoping for in the preseason. However, a few things are pointing toward a potential breakout from Kincaid this weekend, perhaps setting a single-season high for receptions and receiving yards.
The first is the Seahawks defense, which has allowed the fourth-most yards this season to opposing tight ends. With linebacker
Tyrel Dodson in a near-every-down role, that’s an exploitable matchup for Kincaid, given Dodson’s struggles in coverage. The second reason is Kincaid’s participation over the last two games, with snap rates of 79.7 percent and 72.7 percent. Through the first five games, Kincaid was at 61.9 percent. Third, Kincaid showed as well as a blocker last week as he has in his career, which is an important piece of his on-field staying power. Lastly, Knox landed on the injury report this week and missed Wednesday’s practice. Although he’s likely to play through his ankle injury, it could mean a slightly bigger workload for Kincaid, and every snap helps. This could be the perfect storm to be the week everyone has been waiting for with Kincaid.
Projected practice squad elevation: WR Jalen Virgil
Projected inactives vs. Seahawks: WR Curtis Samuel, OL
Will Clapp, DT
Zion Logue, LB Terrel Bernard, LB
Edefuan Ulofoshio, S Mike Edwards
*Inactives are subject to change following Friday’s practice
Prediction: Bills 30, Seahawks 28
This is a game I’ve been back and forth on all week. On offense, the Bills should be able to move the ball effectively against a Seahawks team that showed some weakness as a run defense in their previous outing. The combination of
James Cook and
Ray Davis could have a steady dose of carries in what could wind up as a close contest. Kincaid could be a bit of an X-factor, as his involvement has steadily gone up the last two weeks and the Seahawks lack the linebacker play to properly keep him checked.
What could hold the Bills back from collecting a win is their defense, and most specifically, how they deal with Walker who is one of the best in the NFL at collecting explosive plays. It will be a huge task for the linebackers and safeties to pin Walker in, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he breaks a handful of big runs given the state of the defense. However, the Bills will likely catch a break in not having to defend DK Metcalf, which could make the Seahawks a touch easier to defend without having to worry about a big play being broken on the perimeter.
Ultimately, I think the Bills defensive linemen can do just enough to Smith when the Seahawks drop back to pass to force a mistake, and the no Metcalf factor could help the run defense be able to isolate Walker from breaking too many big runs that will damage their chances of winning. It may take a late field goal to take the lead as these teams are close, but the Bills have enough going for them to steal a win in Seattle.