The
Bills have been dominant through their first three games, going 3-0, averaging a league-high 37.3 points per game and cruising to victory the last two games. But with a road contest against the
Baltimore Ravens on deck for Sunday night, things may get tighter in Week 4.
What did we learn throughout the practice week, and what key things could shape the Bills matchup with the Ravens?
Here are a few thoughts on the Bills’ quest for 4-0 coming on Sunday evening.
Edge contain against Lamar Jackson is of the utmost importance
Getting ready for a game against the Ravens is unlike any other opponent the Bills will see all season because of star quarterback Lamar Jackson. The way Jackson moves is just different than almost any other player at his position, and backing that up with his passing prowess makes him a multi-dimensional threat every week. While there is a healthy respect for his passing ability, it’s what he does as a rusher that causes fits for defensive play callers. Whether that’s in scrambling, or plainly as a rusher where he fakes the handoff, reads the defender and gets yardage on a wide rush, there is no shortage of things to prepare for.
It especially puts a strain on defensive ends because how they handle it from one play to the next could be the difference between helping the defense get off the field and the Ravens putting together a touchdown drive. But since the Bills began being competitive in 2019 under head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills have been among the best at keeping Jackson in check over their past three appearances. Over that time frame, Jackson has averaged 6.4 yards per rush and scored 28 touchdowns on the ground. But the Bills have only allowed 4.7 yards per rush — the third-best mark against Jackson of the 28 teams he faced, and they haven’t let him score a rushing touchdown. The Bills also have the sixth-best rate (22.6 percent) of limiting Jackson rushes to zero or negative yards, according to TruMedia.
But with a new cast of defensive ends from 2019 and 2020 when they were at their best limiting Jackson, it’s an entirely new matchup. The only holdover from 2020 is
A.J. Epenesa, who was only a rookie and a far different player at that stage of his career. One Bills defensive end who has shown a real knack for edge contain this season is
Casey Toohill, and he spoke to the difficulties Jackson presents.
“He’s a special player,” Toohill said. “Even with the proper technique, it’s still hard, to be honest.”
One of the standout players to do it for the Bills in the past was
Shaq Lawson, who showed a real knack for keeping his shoulders squared to the end zone, not taking the bait of crashing down on the running back and then forcing Jackson to continue out wide without the chance to choose a lane — and then not selling out on a pass rush when Jackson drops back.
“Body positioning matters,” Toohill said. “Not completely leaving your feet, having a good base and just being aware of where you are in space, where you need to turn him, stuff like that.”
As cliché as it might be, players and coaches will all conclude that it’s not about stopping Jackson. Much like a prolific NBA scorer, teams just learn to live with the fact that one player will put up stats — but it’s about limiting that player as best they can.
“You might get got a few times,” Toohill said. “But you just have to stay with the plan and stay, you know, trying to be smart with your gap.”
If the Bills can show a similar success to how they’ve defended Jackson as a runner over their last three matchups, it would go a long way to securing a victory.
It might be another pass-heavy week for the Bills; here’s why
Over the first few weeks of offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s first full season, all early signs have pointed to him molding gameplans to the opponent’s specific weaknesses. That was a staple of former Bills OC Brian Daboll but a less prominent feature under Ken Dorsey. Last week, we saw Brady abandon his run-heavy lean in Weeks 1 and 2 to commit to the passing attack completely against the
Jaguars in Week 3 — with a whopping 74 percent dropback rate in the first half when the game was still close. After watching the Ravens on film and looking at their run-defending metrics, that might need to be the play in Week 4 again for Brady and the Bills.
Led by defensive linemen
Michael Pierce,
Nnamdi Madubuike and
Travis Jones, along with linebacker
Roquan Smith and safety
Kyle Hamilton, the Ravens have the highest defensive rush success rate (75 percent) in the
NFL through three games, according to TruMedia. They also have allowed the lowest yards per carry of 2.8, and at 0.91 yards, have the fifth-lowest mark of average yards gained before contact. Excellent defensive backs like Hamilton and cornerback
Marlon Humphrey present a bigger challenge than last week, but not enough for the Bills offense to run straight into the Ravens’ brick wall. There should be enough opportunities on the outside against rookie cornerback
Nate Wiggins and to take advantage of free safety
Marcus Williams to justify a pass-heavy approach.
Taron Johnson injury details, with Week 5 status up in the air
Only seven defensive snaps into the 2024 season, star nickel corner Taron Johnson caught friendly fire from safety
Taylor Rapp, with Rapp’s helmet connecting cleanly with Johnson’s forearm. Johnson exited the game and was ruled out of halftime. Since that point, he hasn’t practiced in any capacity. Encouragingly, the team did not place Johnson on injured reserve ahead of their Week 2 win over the
Dolphins, which indicated that they believed Johnson would be back before a four-game absence. The Bills already ruled Johnson out for the Ravens game, marking his third missed game.
The Athletic caught up with Johnson this week, and he provided the details of the forearm injury.
“Yeah, I broke it. Like scans — it didn’t look crazy or nothing. It was a crack, more so a crack than necessarily a clean break,” Johnson said. “Just trying to get the pain down, to be honest, because it’s not moving around and nothing like that.”
The nickel said it’s usually a four to six-week return to play timeline for players with that injury. One might wonder why the Bills did not put Johnson on injured reserve with that general timeline. But the player and team have remained hopeful for a return in Week 5 against the
Texans since that would officially be four weeks from the injury. Johnson’s absence from practice early this week is not necessarily a dooming sign for Week 5, as the team is likely just allowing the injury to rest. Johnson said he expects a quick ramp-up time once he gets the green light.
“It’s one day at a time and it’s not so black and white to where I just know when I’m going to be ready, you know? But my legs and stuff is all good. So that’s a good thing. You know, it’s not an injury where I don’t have to spend too much time like trying to come back. I just gotta make sure my arm feels a little bit better, and be right back out there,” Johnson said. “Just trying to get the pain down. Once the pain gets down, then I’ll be ready to come back.”
Once Johnson does return to the field, he’ll be wearing a cast on the right forearm but said he’s seen the cast and doesn’t anticipate it preventing him from doing anything.
When the Bills took to the practice field on Thursday, there was a notable addition to the defense. Starting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard was in full pads while sporting a non-contact jersey. Bernard injured his pectoral against the Dolphins in Week 2, and like Johnson, also avoided injured reserve and the consequential minimum of four games missed. McDermott ruled Bernard out for the Ravens game but having Bernard on the practice field, still a week-and-a-half ahead of the Texans contest in Week 5, is a very encouraging sign of his potential availability. In the meantime,
Baylon Spector will again replace Bernard in the lineup. Spector played an every-down role for the Bills in their Week 3 blowout win over the Jaguars.
Grable to IR, Clapp to 53 — what does it mean for game days?
The Bills have been overwhelmingly healthy along the offensive line since the beginning of the 2023 season. And that has held true about the starters three games into 2024. But after just three snaps in garbage time, sixth-round rookie
Tylan Grable suffered a groin injury, and the team placed him on injured reserve. The corresponding move was to sign interior offensive lineman
Will Clapp from the practice squad, but the slight jostling of the backups could change things up on game day. Grable’s injury likely means
Ryan Van Demark will be active moving forward as the only true tackle of the backup options. His best spot is at left tackle. He has struggled at right tackle at times, making you wonder if
Alec Anderson would be the solution ahead of Van Demark. On the interior, Anderson is likely the first one in at all three positions. It would then come down to Clapp versus rookie fifth-round pick
Sedrick Van Pran-Granger for the final game-day active spot. Clapp is more versatile between center and guard than Van Pran-Granger and has more experience. But if Anderson is the first substitute, it likely makes the most sense to keep getting the young rookie more late-game experience when it calls for it.
Projected inactives: OL Will Clapp, LB Terrel Bernard, LB
Edefuan Ulofoshio, NCB Taron Johnson, S Mike Edwards
Prediction: Bills 26, Ravens 24
The Bills have enjoyed almost two full games of uncompetitive football, but that will likely change on Sunday night. It’s always a challenge to limit Jackson, and having a player like
Zay Flowers who can create yards after a lower-yardage target could be something they look to use against the Bills. On the other hand, the Bills have done well to limit Jackson as a rusher in the past, which is encouraging for their prospects. One thing to keep an eye on is the status of left guard Andrew Voorhees, who may be in jeopardy of missing the game due to injury. That would go a long way to both helping limit running back
Derrick Henry and getting pressure up the middle with defensive tackle
Ed Oliver.
On offense, the Ravens aren’t likely to let quarterback
Josh Allen get as many man-coverage looks as he got last week, but there will still be some chances. The Ravens play a fair amount of Cover 1, so this could even be a week where the Bills push the ball down the field for an explosive gain in the passing game. Ultimately, I think the Bills will have enough of an advantage with their passing attack against the Ravens secondary to counteract some of the success the Ravens’ offense will have. With Allen playing as well and controlled as he is as a passer, that should be enough to put them over the top in a close matchup.
