Just one minor point of contention, I think Israel is vey much a rational actor, but their motivation is driven by evil. The Netenyahu regime- considering how corrupt and expansionistic it is, and how supportive of genocide it is, I think its high time to call his government a regime - is evil, but its very rational. Think about it, its September 2023, most of your citizens want you and your cronies taken out because you have abused power and are corrupt as fuck. You have Palestinians who want your biggest supporters to stop building illegal settlements in their internationally respected territories, you have Iran funding and arming the Palestinians, and so you have a very weak grip on power. However, there is one (can we stil call it a trump card?) card you have in your deck. Hamas. For years you and your predecessors have cultivated and funded them to discredit the Palestinians, and so you get wind that one of their hotheads is going to do something big or else you even pay them to do something particularly nasty such as make a big attack and take 100+ people hostage.
All of a sudden you get all sorts of things. You are at war against a terrible foe. Instantaneously the corruption and abuse of power allegations go away. Good luck finding the John Oliver piece from October 2023 (one of his best works and now very difficult to find)
Oh good I found it, it was not there for a few months, but here it is in its entirety:
You also get a chance to ethnically clense the Palestinian territories of its combat/reproductive aged men and kill its independence ambitions. You also get to go after Hezbollah and strike Iran because nobody in the west is going to sanction you. Fast forward a year, you have hit Iran, you have disabled Hezbollah, and after 13 years of civil war, poor governance, a US seizure of its oil (which crippled its economy) and Turkish seizure of its best agricultural lands you have a bankrupt government and starving population and so a few thousand ghouls with assault rifles and toyatas are all that's needed to topple it. Now you get Lebanon with little resistance and you get a huge buffer that may end up very near Damascus. Its diabolically clever. Its absolutely evil but its not irrational.