Sunday shapes up to be another classic between the Bills and Chiefs. Here are injuries, thoughts and predictions to watch for.
theathletic.com
Plenty of firsts will occur when the
Buffalo Bills meet the
Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday’s AFC’s divisional round.
It’s the first time they host the Chiefs in the playoffs since Sean McDermott became the
Bills coach. It’s Patrick Mahomes’ first road playoff game. And considering Mahomes’ last visit to Buffalo was without fans in the stands due to COVID in 2020, it’s also the first time the quarterback will play in front of a packed house at Highmark Stadium.
“No disrespect. What year is this for Pat?” left tackle
Dion Dawkins said Thursday. “Seven, right? He’s only been here once? So he’s never been here. Pat has never been to the Bills stadium in full effect … I’m excited. The environment will be different, and not to say it’s in our favor, but the stadium is our favor. The stadium is us. It helps us.”
The Bills hope for their own first since McDermott took over the team in 2017 — advancing past the Chiefs in the postseason.
What stands out about Sunday’s matchup and what has the chance to impact it most? Here is a Bills divisional round notebook.
Taron Johnson is the most important injury remaining
The way things have gone over the past week, the Bills likely get cornerback
Rasul Douglas and linebacker
Tyrel Dodson back into the starting lineup against the Chiefs. While last weekend’s injury parade had fans nervous about the state of the defense, getting both Douglas and Dodson helps significantly. Douglas enters as fellow starting cornerback
Christian Benford is ruled out with a knee injury, making it a Douglas and
Dane Jackson starting duo. Dodson has no injury status for Sunday and is good to go, and if
Terrel Bernard can’t play, the Bills at least have one of their top two linebackers in the lineup. Bernard is the headlining injury, but the potential game-changer is whether or not nickel cornerback Taron Johnson (concussion) plays.
Johnson is one of the most irreplaceable starters on the roster, with how much the defense puts on his plate every week and the drop-off at the position when he’s unavailable is noticeable. Johnson is effectively a third linebacker on the field every down and his unique skill set allows the Bills to fully commit to nickel as their base defense. He excels as a run defender between the tackles and is always excellent with his positioning at forcing wide runs to the interior toward his teammates to minimize big plays. He’s as trustworthy a coverage player as you’ll find who can contend with the speed of some receivers and size of some tight ends. His immediate backup is
Cam Lewis, who has split his time between nickel cornerback and safety over the past few years but is mainly a special teams asset.
But with the injury to
Taylor Rapp, and possibly without Johnson, the trickle-down effect in passing situations is obvious. At full health, the Bills would bring in Rapp for the outside linebacker while Johnson remains at nickel. Without Rapp and with Johnson, Lewis enters the game as a third safety. But without both, that forces
Damar Hamlin, their fifth-best safety, onto the field for pivotal third down snaps against Mahomes. With possibly two slower linebackers in Dodson and
A.J. Klein in front of the safeties, it could create significant opportunities for the Chiefs passing game. The Bills could always have
Siran Neal enter the game at nickel cornerback and shift Lewis back to safety, but Neal has some limitations in covering smaller, speedier players. Either way, they’d have to use one of Neal (45 snaps this season) or Hamlin (30 snaps).
The good news for the Bills is Johnson remains optimistic he’ll play against the Chiefs. Johnson said as much after Friday’s practice, saying he’s felt good throughout the week and thought he’d be able to re-enter the
Pittsburgh Steelers game. He also revealed his final test as part of concussion protocol is Saturday. It’s not a given because passing through different stages of concussion protocol can be wildly unpredictable from one day to the next. But, as of Friday, things are trending upward for Johnson to play. If he’s available, it could help swing the matchup in the Bills’ favor.
How much of a game-changer is Isiah Pacheco?
The last time the Bills took on the Chiefs in Kansas City, the Chiefs were without a key piece of their offensive identity this season. Starting running back Isiah Pacheco missed the game due to injury and the Chiefs clearly missed the physical element that has gotten them through difficult times on offense this season. The Chiefs wound up with only 58 rushing yards on 15 carries from their running backs in that game. But now, with Pacheco healthy and available, both of those numbers are likely to increase against the Bills as they try to force the defense prove they can slow them down between the tackles. The Chiefs offensive line and how well they run block will put a lot of pressure on defensive tackles
Ed Oliver and
DaQuan Jones to keep the second-level defenders clean. The Bills did an excellent job against a similarly physical Steelers offensive line. Still, the talent the Chiefs offensive line has creates an entirely different challenge. Having Dodson back helps and potentially having Johnson does, too. But Pacheco can run through, or by, anyone if they’re not ready to play with the same physicality or energy. Limiting him will be critical Sunday.
Will Bills get back to 11.5 personnel?
When the Bills drafted tight end
Dalton Kincaid in the first round, it came with the idea they could use both Kincaid and
Dawson Knox on the field simultaneously. General manager Brandon Beane branded it “11.5 personnel,” which was an ode to Kincaid’s size, but also his athleticism to effectively be a third receiver above all else. But since that point, a few things have happened this season. First, Knox went on injured reserve in Week 8 and didn’t return until Week 14. And in between that time, the Bills changed offensive coordinators. Upon Knox’s return, the Bills got right back to 11.5 personnel, putting Kincaid and Knox on the field together 25 times against the Chiefs and 23 times against the
Cowboys. But since those two games, the grouping has gone missing for the most part. Over the Bills’ last four games, they’ve been on the field for only 15 snaps total, no more than five times in any of those four games. McDermott was asked about it this week.
“Just the ebb and flow of a game plan and week to week,” McDermott said. “It’s nothing we’re trying to do differently. It’s just more overall Joe [Brady] and the offensive staff’s feel, and kind of the rhythm of the offense more than anything.”
While it could be a sign that the Bills are just moving in a different direction given the trend, it might also be a sign the Bills shift back into 11.5 personnel against the Chiefs. Especially with wide receiver
Gabe Davis available and
Trent Sherfield not giving them much of a receiving output against the Steelers, there could be a concerted effort to use Kincaid’s size and speed as a weapon against the Chiefs. They went to that package even with Davis available in Week 14, to try and isolate Kincaid against a nickel corner or linebacker, which could also be a sign that it returns Sunday. Getting the best five receiving options on the field should be a priority, and as constructed, that includes
Stefon Diggs,
Khalil Shakir, Kincaid and Knox more often than not. Kincaid could play a major role in this contest in this specific personnel grouping, because even with all the Chiefs’ talent on defense, they lack a player with the size and athleticism to contend with Kincaid all game.
Bills O-line has hands full against physical, talented Chiefs D-line
The Bills offensive line had a surprisingly difficult time against the Steelers defensive line last week. The Steelers were without their star pass rusher in
T.J. Watt, and outside of him, most of their other defensive line pieces haven’t been as impactful as in past years. Even still, their play is built on physicality and trying to power their way into the backfield, and it was working against the Bills offensive line. The Bills have done a better job blocking with power this year than in past ones, and their starting five undoubtedly has been the best collection of blockers in front of
Josh Allen since the Bills drafted him. But the Steelers made their way into the backfield and caused problems for both the run and passing game, requiring Allen to make up the difference dealing with more pressure than usual.
When you watch the Chiefs on film, they play with a similar physicality to the Steelers, and have more talent across the line. Defensive tackle
Chris Jones is the key piece, but
Mike Danna,
Charles Omenihu and
George Karlaftis have all been very good this season. They have an excellent blend of length and physicality, which could cause the Bills offensive line to struggle for a second consecutive week. But this has been a good unit for the Bills all year, so it also wouldn’t surprise if they rose to the challenge, despite the talent they’re up against.
Von Miller has a chance to make an impact Sunday
It seemed like Von Miller took a step forward in his pass-rushing ability against the Steelers. He looked even better on film because Miller, without question, had two of his best pass-rushing reps in only a three-play span at the end of the game. On one snap, Miller used a strong arm to keep the right tackle off of his pads, dipped his shoulder once he found some space and bent the edge toward Steelers quarterback
Mason Rudolph. It put Miller at Rudolph’s doorstep, nearly collecting his first sack of his season. It also was the first time Miller has attempted to bend around the edge like that, with that much quickness, in a game setting since he returned in Week 5. Just two plays later, Miller played off that outside win, set up the right tackle and successfully utilized an inside spin for a clean win. Miller gave Rudolph a hit but didn’t wrap up because he wasn’t sure if Rudolph had let the ball go. Now, to be fair, it was at the end of the game and Miller was working against a slower-footed rookie right tackle in
Broderick Jones. But this was the best Miller has looked all season, and when in the game Sunday, he’ll be up against beatable Chiefs right tackle
Jawaan Taylor. Don’t be surprised if Miller gets close or even secures his first sack of the year.
Projected practice squad elevations: LB A.J. Klein, CB
Josh Norman
Projected inactives: WR Gabe Davis, IOL
Alec Anderson, DT
Poona Ford, LB
Baylon Spector, LB Terrel Bernard, CB Christian Benford, S Taylor Rapp
Prediction: Chiefs 26, Bills 24
These two teams are extremely close in terms of talent and current situations. The Bills turned their entire season around after their Week 13 bye and haven’t lost since, and the Chiefs offense showed real promise even on plays where they had a mental error or two. But what stands out most about this Chiefs team is how well they play at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and how that physicality specifically challenges the Bills this week. Those potential advantages could help them move the ball on the ground more effectively than the Steelers did last weekend and the defensive line get more pressure on Allen this weekend. Even with those advantages, Allen has the potential to take the game over and put the Bills in a position to win late. They’ll need him to help establish their ground game, and given his effectiveness, Allen should have some highlight-worthy moments. However, the
Dolphins game is the most impressive the Chiefs have been on offense in some time. And for some strange reason this year, they have been better on the road (6-2) than at home (6-4). I’ve been going back and forth with this pick all week, but the Chiefs look like they’re getting closer to their optimal offensive state, and that could continue Sunday. This game might come down to Mahomes manufacturing a game-winning drive that leads to a last-second field goal and yet another instant classic between these two behemoths.
Josh Allen
Ed Oliver
Stefon Diggs
Khalil Shakir
Dalton Kincaid
James Cook
Terrel Bernard
Dawson Knox
A.J. Epenesa
Linval Joseph
DaQuan Jones
Jordan Poyer
Greg Rousseau
Micah Hyde
Spencer Brown
Kaiir Elam
Leonard Floyd
Von Miller
Dorian Williams
Shaq Lawson
Ty Johnson
Tim Settle
Baylon Spector
O’Cyrus Torrence
Dion Dawkins
Taron Johnson
Cam Lewis
David Edwards
Trent Sherfield
Mitch Morse
Connor McGovern
Dane Jackson
A.J. Klein
Matt Milano
Rasul Douglas
Christian Benford
Gabe Davis
Latavius Murray
Taylor Rapp
Tyrel Dodson
Jordan Phillips
