Three questions: Contemplating injuries with Chiefs next? Unsung heroes? And a dome, again?

[HipKat]

Turning it around: First game with Chiefs started win streak. Can McDermott's defense do it again?

The Bills' defense appeared broken entering last month's game at Kansas City. They haven't lost since. Can they again slow down the NFL's best quarterback?

buffalonews.com

Back in the spring, the Buffalo Bills may have scoffed at having to play 12 games before their bye week, which was closer to Christmas than Halloween, closer to the first playoff weekend than the final cut-down date.

Turns out, it worked out. For the Bills in general. For the Bills’ defense in particular.

Returning from Philadelphia and a come-from-ahead loss in which the Eagles scored 30 points in the second half/overtime, a proud defense was 6-6, slumping and out of answers.

Cue days of meeting and re-plotting. The status quo was unacceptable.

“It was everything,” assistant head coach/defensive line coach Eric Washington said. “It gave us an opportunity to really look critically at ourselves and do some self-reflecting and to also appreciate and know that we had a pretty good defense; we just had to get to a certain level of consistency with our play.”

Starting with the Week 14 victory at Kansas City, the Bills rediscovered a level of play that has helped fuel the current six-game winning streak entering Sunday night’s AFC divisional round game against those same Chiefs.

The Bills’ overall resurgence is rooted in The Team; they are just doing things better than during a 3-5 skid that pushed them out of playoff position. But look at the defense. They returned to their takeaway roots, firmed up against the run and began to close out games.

In the last six games, they have allowed an average of 16.8 points and forced 14 three-and-outs.

What happened? A new comfort level was achieved – play-caller (McDermott) honing in on his players’ strengths and the players honed in his play-calling modus operandi.

“I can honestly say, at the beginning of the season, we weren’t sure as to how he would call it,” safety Micah Hyde said. “He had to learn us and we had to learn him and throughout the season, we were able to do that.”

And just in time.

Mid-season slump​

McDermott is calling his team’s defensive plays for the first time since he was Carolina’s coordinator in 2016. Yes, the Bills have been using his defensive tenets and philosophy since he was hired here in ’17, but he wasn’t the one calling the game-day shots. Throw in the game management component – chiefly, challenges, timeouts and fourth-down calls – and he was introduced a new learning curve.

Practice squad linebacker A.J. Klein, who could start Sunday for the injured Terrel Bernard (right ankle), was the only Bills player with previous experience playing for McDermott The Play Caller. Everybody else, even longtime safeties Hyde and Jordan Poyer, had to go through a transition.

So did the head coach.

“When you’re a player, it takes a little bit of time to get into the flow of the game – run, pass, situations, schematics of the offense – and that’s for coaches, as well, in getting into that flow and getting in the rhythm of their calls and how he wants to attack teams,” Klein said.

It would be inaccurate to pin all the blame of the blown leads on McDermott’s play-calling. But something was amiss. The Bills either routed teams (first six wins by an average of 21.2 points) or failed in one-possession games (first six losses by an average of 4.3 points).

Some of the lowlights …
Week 5 vs. Jacksonville: The Bills trailed 18-13, but on third-and-4, they rushed six, putting Hyde in man coverage against receiver Calvin Ridley. It didn’t work. 32-yard completion.

Week 7 at New England: The Bills led 25-22 with 1:58 left but allowed the woeful Patriots to drive 75 yards on eight plays, including a 14-yard completion to tight end Hunter Henry on third-and-8.

Week 9 at Cincinnati: The Bills trailed 24-18 with 3:32 remaining and never got the football back. The drive-starting play was a 32-yard catch by Tyler Boyd against a six-man pressure.

Week 10 vs. Denver: The Bills led 22-21 with 1:55 left. On third-and-10, McDermott rushed seven and nickel Taron Johnson was called for pass interference. A do-over field goal gave the Broncos the win.

Week 12 at Philadelphia: The Bills led 31-28 with 1:52 left. McDermott called two five-man pressures and the Eagles completed passes of 9 and 11 yards. Philadelphia won in overtime on a 75-yard touchdown drive.

Each chapter had a different plot, but the same ending. And it was forcing the Bills’ season to spiral out of control.

’Simple is better’​

The bye week.

The Bills’ coaches hunkered down to confirm what was working and diagnose the problem points. Did McDermott need to scale back his pressure calls minus top cornerback Tre’Davious White and play-making linebacker Matt Milano? Which players needed to perform better? Why the slump on third down (30.8% in Weeks 1-4 to 41% in Weeks 5-12)? And, obviously, why the late-game struggles?

Help wasn’t on the way. The trade deadline produced cornerback Rasul Douglas from Green Bay, and the Bills had signed cornerback Josh Norman and defensive tackle Linval Joseph. But any other major issues needed to have an in-house solution.

“It gave us a chance to really take a step back, look at what’s been working, what we need to improve on in every aspect and just move forward with that messaging and how we play with the players,” Washington said.

Washington said the Bills had to be “more opportunistic and really, really emphasize taking the ball away, which is one of our calling cards.”

Another factor: The Bills knew they likely had to win out.

“Our urgency was at an all-time high,” defensive end Von Miller said. “We always knew what we were supposed to do and we were always prepared. It was just, ‘It’s now or never.’ I feel like we’re better in that situation.”

To the untrained eye, one change was a greater reliance on the four-man pass rush in key, late-game moments.

During the current winning streak, the emphasis on mixing up their rush is clear. Each defensive end has been asked to drop into zone coverage while a linebacker (Bernard or Tyrel Dodson) blitzes. On some third downs, they have moved ends Greg Rousseau or Shaq Lawson inside. The Bills are creating pressure without a bushel of sacks (14 in the last six games), but those plays are also impactful.

The improvement turned the Bills from Team Couldn’t Close to Team Could Win The Close One.

“We had ups and downs but we stayed with it and Sean stuck with it,” said Klein, who had a team-high 11 tackles against the Steelers. “It’s important for him to have that confidence in himself and have that feel for the game.”

Against the Chiefs, McDermott rushed four on third- and fourth-and-15 and quarterback Patrick Mahomes was knocked down after both plays. Against the Chargers, he blitzed Bernard for a sack to force a field goal with 5:26 left. Against the Dolphins, the Bills leaned exclusively on a four-man rush to shut out Miami in the second half. And against the Steelers last week, leading 31-17, the Bills had a four-and-out with three four-man rushes.

That aforementioned period of learning and getting into a play-calling groove? McDermott downplayed it.

“I guess when it’s going well, I’ve been in rhythm,” he said before the Pittsburgh game. “When it hasn’t, I haven’t. You just keep learning and keep growing every week and trying to do the best you can for your team and put the players in the best position possible.”

The players are to the point where they can predict what call is coming.

“You can definitely tell with the way he calls the plays for us now, the way we game-plan going into the week and just talking in the meetings and how we want to set up plays,” Hyde said.

Said defensive end A.J. Epenesa: “You’re at the point where you have a good feel of what he’s thinking.”

From that night in Philadelphia to now, what changed?

“Simple is better,” Hyde said. “We weren’t going to sit here (at 6-6) and draw up everything in the sand to try and stop everything. We were going to do what we do best and go from there.”

From Philadelphia on that late November night to Orchard Park on this late January night, the Bills’ best has gotten them to within two wins of a Super Bowl berth.

Tale of three seasons​

Dividing the Bills' defense into three parts this season:
Games 1-4 Games 5-12 Games 13-18
Record 3-1 3-5 6-0
Points allowed 13.8 21.5 16.8
Rushing yards allowed 118.5 109.6 97.7
Passing yards allowed 169.5 220.1 186.8
Total yards allowed 288.0 335.9 284.5
Takeaways 11 10 11
Sacks 16 25 14
Third down pct. 30.8 41.0 41.1
Explosive plays allowed 30 54 34*
Red zone TD pct. 45.5 55.6 64.3
Three-and-outs 8 15 14
*Explosive play (rush of at least 12 yards/pass of at least 16 yards).

 

[daryls61]

GAME DAY!!!

LFG!!

 

[herodotus]

21-20, Hochuli willls them down the field for the go ahead touchdown and I have to hear bullshit for the next six months because that's just how my life is. Fuck it all, I'm gonna get smashed so I can pass out and wake up Monday. Fuck fuck fuck

 

[HipKat]

Bass didn't lose the game. He failed to tie it.

Any confidence that KC wouldn't have gone downfield and scored anyway?

Josh NEVER should have tried to throw those two balls to the endzone. We had control of the clock and the game.

 

[Toofast80]

Coaching lost that game!

 

[daryls61]

Bills should have gone for it. To me the FG seemed like giving up on the game. Little doubt Chiefs would have been stopped.

 

[Bloody_Wolf]

Everything leading up to that kick lost the game. You shouldn't ever have to rely on your kicker to keep you in the game, especially in that weather.

 

[Victor7]

Agreed on Bass not losing the game, disagree on not going end zone.

Everyone, even if the biggest of homers know that even with the kick they would've marched right down our throats and kicked the game winner. Everyone.

Having said that I was ok with the 2nd down throw. The play was there, Shakir was open, but alas Josh got bumped right as he threw and the ball was affected. Now the 3rd down call I have a problem with. Play it "easier" and set yourself up for a short 4th down. If anything you can think about it and even if you decide to kick its a shorter one.

 

[HipKat]

Agreed on Bass not losing the game, disagree on not going end zone.

Everyone, even if the biggest of homers know that even with the kick they would've marched right down our throats and kicked the game winner. Everyone.

Having said that I was ok with the 2nd down throw. The play was there, Shakir was open, but alas Josh got bumped right as he threw and the ball was affected. Now the 3rd down call I have a problem with. Play it "easier" and set yourself up for a short 4th down. If anything you can think about it and even if you decide to kick its a shorter one.

I agree. That split second he would have had without getting hit may have been gold.
The remaining time is what worries me. KC makes a living on 4th Quarter comebacks

 

[HipKat]

Jim Kubiak: What happened to Bills, Josh Allen on last series and what's next?

Had they scored a touchdown on the last drive, the Bills would have won the game, giving the Chiefs almost nothing to work with. At least that was the plan.

buffalonews.com

Overview​

Josh Allen’s performance grade against Kansas City in the AFC divisional playoff was 92% as he completed 26 of 39 attempts (67%) for 186 yards and one touchdown. On the ground, Allen was dangerous and productive, rushing for 72 yards on 12 carries and scoring two touchdowns. He also had a fumble. Allen was highly efficient and willing to check the ball down quickly and decisively against zone coverage as his progressions down the field were covered. Allen’s leadership, his poise and his physicality were all deserving of an opportunity to continue the Bills’ playoff journey.

Interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady played his hand as well as it could have been played, maximizing and focusing on a strong running game. This took the wind out of the sails of the Chiefs’ defense for most of the game, as the Bills’ offense controlled the time of possession, 37:03 to 22:57, on a total of eight possessions. The Bills’ offense ran 31 more plays and racked up 182 yards rushing compared to 146 yards for the Chiefs. The Bills’ offense statistically outdueled the Chiefs’ on third downs, converting 7 of 14 compared to 1 of 5. The problem however, was the effectiveness of each play. On the ground, the Chiefs averaged 6.1 yards per rush to the Bills' 4.7. Through the air, the Chiefs averaged 9.2 yards per pass play to the Bills' 4.8 yards.

In my opinion, the offensive game plan was spot on. Heading into the game, the Bills’ offense knew it needed to possess the football and score, neutralizing the Chiefs’ ability to attack an injury-riddled defense that simply could not hold up any longer. The calculation and the execution that it took to put the ball in Allen’s hands, on perhaps the final drive with 8:23 remaining and a three-point deficit was perhaps what head coach Sean McDermott had dreamed of. It was the best case scenario as the Bills drained the clock, systematically progressing down the field into scoring position. Had they scored a touchdown on the last drive, the Bills would have won the game, giving the Chiefs almost nothing to work with.

At least that was the plan.

First quarter​

Play selection: 21 plays: Nine passes, 12 runs.

Allen: 7 for 9 passing for 51 yards. Four carries for 21 yards.
Performance grade: 100%.
Score: Bills, 7-6.

The Chiefs deferred after winning the toss and the Bills received. The first drive, as seemed to happen in Bills’ games this season, began with a hiccup on the first play. Allen threw a quick pass to wide receiver Stefon Diggs on a bubble screen and Diggs was stripped by safety Chamarri Conner. Tight end Dalton Kincaid knocked the loose ball out of bounds. It was a penalty for illegal batting, but the Bills retained possession, after a loss of seven yards and loss of down.

On second-and-17, Allen threw a strike to Diggs on a dig route that he was not able to bring in. Diggs rounded his route and drifted toward the safety. This was not the design as he was supposed to be more flat, coming back toward Allen. This was a poor start for Diggs, both protecting the football and executing.

This created a desperate third-and-17. Allen answered with a remarkable lateral.

Allen stepped up in the pocket as the Chiefs dropped back into quarter-quarter-half zone and looked to run. He had the presence of mind to understand that he could get the ball to his check down back, Ty Johnson, as long as the ball was thrown backward. This play kept this drive alive, and the Bills kicked a field goal 10 plays later.

It is notable that on this drive, James Cook also appeared to fumble but was ruled down. Clearly, the Chiefs were focused on trying to create a turnover.

Allen tush-pushed on fourth-and-1 and completed 5 of 7 attempts on this 13-play drive, which gave the Bills an early lead, overcoming the hole Diggs’ fumble created.

Here is a look at the third-and-8 play that was deflected at the line of scrimmage by Chris Jones. The Chiefs rushed only one defensive lineman and spied Allen to the left, the direction the rush was designed for and dropped everyone else into the end zone.

Notice how the Chiefs led two of the three Bills receivers, Diggs and Trent Sherfield, into each other. They didn’t get clean releases, which reduced the effectiveness of the routes down the field. Also, the Chiefs only rushed one player, George Karlaftis (No. 56) to Allen’s right, presumably to encourage Allen to escape left. This calculation was a trap that had spy Willie Gay (No. 50), boxed in red, waiting for Allen on the left.



Allen stayed in the pocket and tried to check down to running back Latavius Murray, but it was knocked down by Jones, who was not rushing, instead trying to get into the throwing lane of Allen’s short options.

It’s not clear what Brady was trying to achieve in the end zone with the three receivers, but the Chiefs had it covered, bracketed and smothered with no chance of success. The Bills were anticipating blitz, but instead the Chiefs rushed one and dropped seven into zone coverage. The Bills kicked the field goal to take the early lead.

The Chiefs answered with a 47-yard field goal to tie the game 3-3.

Allen and the Bills’ offense began their second offensive series with 4:35 in the quarter. Brady kept the Chiefs off balance by moving Cook from one side of Allen to the other just before the snap, with the use of a sixth offensive lineman, and with 3 by 1 formations.

On the third play of this drive, Brady called this throwback concept.



Here, the sixth offensive lineman, David Edwards (No. 76), lined up to the left of Allen and then shifted to the right to create a trips or three-receiver set to the right. This caused the Chiefs’ linebackers to re-adjust their positions. The play action went to the weak side, and as Allen set up for the pass, Johnson, the running back who Allen faked to, leaked into the flat uncovered. Allen did a terrific job of progressing quickly, identifying that Diggs and Kincaid were accounted for in coverage and getting the football out to his back. The Bills got a first down and had a first-and-10 past midfield.

Allen played as well as he possibly could have in the first quarter, completing 7 of 9 attempts, protecting the football, and being as efficient as possible.

Second quarter ​

Play selection: 20 plays: 10 passes, 10 runs.
Allen: 7 for 10 passing for 60 yards, touchdown. Four carries for 18 yards.
Performance grade: 100%.
Score: Bills, 17-13.

Three plays into the second quarter, Allen scored a go-ahead touchdown on this run.

Here, on second-and-3 from the 5-yard line, Brady called a quarterback counter using Edwards again as the sixth offensive lineman, countering to Allen’s left.

Allen recognized the Chiefs were in man-to-man coverage, and rather than run up inside of Edwards' block – where they had an extra defender that could not be accounted for – he spilled his run to the outside. This was tremendous awareness and Allen walked into the end zone untouched. Brady called nine runs and two passes in 11 total plays, and the Bills used 3 x 1 formations almost exclusively, while adding the sixth offensive lineman.



The Chiefs answered with another field goal to close the gap to 10-6.

The Bills punted on the next possession as this second-and-8 attempt on a go route by Sherfield was missed.



Allen recognized man-to-man on Sherfield and took a shot to his left. The ball was perfectly thrown, but Sherfield was not able to bring it in. This created a third-and-8 and the Chiefs blitzed and were able to rally to tackle on a short completion to Khalil Shakir.

Bills punter Sam Martin, who was injured last week having pulled his left hamstring, punted very poorly on this attempt. Generally, with the Bills punting from their own 40-yard line, an NFL punter would be capable of pinning the opponent inside of their 10-yard line. Martin’s punt was lined low and directly to the punt returner, Richie James, who fielded it on his 20-yard line and returned it 15 yards.

The Chiefs’ offense took the lead with an impressive five-play touchdown scoring drive to take their first lead of the game at 13-10. The Bills’ defense busted a coverage that allowed tight end Travis Kelce to be uncovered for an uncontested 22-yard touchdown pass.

Allen and the Bills’ offense had another chance before halftime with a final drive, beginning on the Bills’ 25-yard line with three minutes remaining. On the fifth play, Allen completed his fourth consecutive pass, this one to Murray.



Next, Allen scrambled for 18 yards, ran another quarterback-designed run, completed a third-and-5 pass, and finally hammered into the end zone for the halftime lead.

Brady emptied the backfield here and pulled center Mitch Morse to influence the defensive momentum to the left. Allen’s eyes went left as well, making it appear as if he were throwing the football quickly to his left. This was a setup for Allen to run back to his right.

As you watch the video, watch Allen’s ferocity as he puts his head down and impressively drives himself across the goal line. Offensive linemen O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown and Conner McGovern all surged with Allen into the end zone.



The Bills took the lead into halftime 17-13 as Allen played a perfect first half of football. His two rushing touchdowns were the difference as he completed 14 of 19 for 111 yards while rushing for 52 yards.

Third quarter​

Play selection: 15 plays: Six passes, nine runs.
Allen: 5 for 6 passing for 31 yards and one touchdown. One carry for 3 yards.
Performance grade: 93%.
Score: Bills, 24-20.

The Chiefs took their opening second-half possession down the field for a touchdown to take a 20-17 lead.

Allen and the Bills began their fifth offensive possession with 11:48 in the third quarter. The point of limiting possessions with ball control was working to keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field. Conversely, it also was limiting offensive opportunities, making each possession so much more valuable.

Brady called a masterful, 15-play drive that included nine runs and six passes, as Allen completed 5 of 6 attempts. His only incompletion was a throwaway.

On third-and-goal, from the Chiefs’ 13-yard line, following a delay of game penalty, Allen made this remarkable touchdown pass to Shakir.

Here, the Chiefs used the same strategy as the first half. They dropped seven defenders into coverage while rushing only three with the intent to force Allen to flush out to his left. Seeing this again, it was a clear strategy to try to gain a tactical advantage on Allen who, as a righthanded quarterback, naturally wants to roll to his right. The other planned element was to always collision Diggs, no matter where he was, and to have a spy for Allen. In this case, the spy was Leo Chanel (No. 54).



Despite these challenges, Allen rolled to his left, and under duress was still capable of putting the ball in a location where only Shakir could catch it.

This ball placement on the front pylon was absolutely perfect. The results on this drive were significant as the Bills drained more than eight minutes off the clock, took the lead at 24-20, and gained momentum.



At this point, Allen had only one minus in our grading system from taking a delay of game penalty.

Fourth quarter​

Play selection: 21 plays: 14 passes, eight runs.
Allen: 7 for 14 passing for 44 yards. Three carries for 8 yards.
Performance grade: 76%.
Score: Chiefs, 27-24.

The Chiefs took the lead again with a touchdown early in the fourth quarter for the fifth lead change in six possessions.

Allen took over on his sixth offensive possession with the Bills trailing by three points with 11 minutes remaining. The first play was a quarterback run for an 8-yard gain. On second-and-2, Cook was stuffed in the backfield to force third-and-5.



Here, the Chiefs overloaded and ran a zone blitz, overloading Allen’s right side. Right tackle Brown protected the blitz from Nick Bolton (No. 32), which turned Karlaftis (No. 56) loose to Allen.

Brady tried to get cute again, lining Diggs up in the backfield. The Chiefs didn’t care, their intent was to overload the right side of the line. Allen had Diggs but could not get the ball to him because Karlaftis deflected the pass.

The Bills were not able to have the same success on the ground as they had in the first half and were forced to punt.

The Chiefs had only 10 players on the field and a fake punt was called from the sideline. The problem was that this fake punt was very poorly blocked and it was orchestrated from the Bills’ own 30-yard line.

This blunder was returned back to the Bills on the ensuing drive as the Chiefs fumbled what was nearly a touchdown out of the endzone. This touchback negated the muffed fake punt and gave the Bills another opportunity.

This next possession was again unsuccessful as Cook was stuffed on first-and-10 for a 4-yard loss. Then on second-and-14, Allen completed a short pass to Shakir, who was injured on the play. On third-and-12, Allen launched a long pass to Sherfield who again could not make the catch on the deep attempt. The Bills went three-and-out for the second consecutive drive.

Credit the Chiefs’ defense for bringing one more defender down to the line of scrimmage than the Bills could block. They were shooting gaps, getting penetration and filling cutback lanes. Allen also seemed to begin to press as the long throw to Sherfield seemed like a stretch.

The Chiefs’ strategy remained the same. They rushed three on third-and-12, spied Allen and dropped seven defenders into deep quarters coverage.



Notice the wide rusher to Allen’s right, also tactically designed to push Allen left and into the spy circled in yellow. Allen had time in the pocket, but his patience was running low as he felt the need to try to push the ball down the field.

The Bills’ punt was again shanked by an injured Martin, which makes one wonder if it was the right decision to dress him in favor of newly signed Matt Haack, who was at least healthy. The poor punt barely made it past midfield in the air and resulted in more great field position for the Chiefs’ offense on their own 43-yard line with a three-point lead.

The Bills’ defense held with a valiant effort and forced a punt that would give Allen and the Bills one final opportunity to win.

Allen took over with 8:23 remaining on only his eighth possession of the game. The Bills took over from their own 20-yard line, and on the very first play Allen took a long shot to Diggs. Allen threw this ball from his own 16-yard line and it was missed by Diggs on the 27-yard line of the Chiefs.

It was perfectly thrown over the top of the defenders. Had Diggs made this catch, he would have scored and given the Bills a four-point lead.

As the drive continued, Allen scrambled on a third-and-10 and fumbled the football, but Kincaid batted it and Brown recovered. This forced a fourth-and-3 from midfield with four minutes to play.

This was a brilliant play call by Brady in this situation, anticipating man-to-man coverage. Trent McDuffie (No. 22) was defending Shakir. The magic here was the unique motion by Shakir to start on the right, then cross the formation, then loop back behind Allen and then turn around and go the other way. The motion had McDuffie bamboozled and this was an easy throw into the flat for the first down.



As time wound down to less than two minutes, Allen made two decisions that resulted in the need for a field goal attempt. As well as he played, and as dynamic a player that he is, he had opportunities here that he passed on.

On second-and-9, from an empty formation, Allen went for it all, rather than going through his progressions and taking Diggs on an open crossing route.

Here, Allen miscalculated that Shakir could get over the top of the circled defender. Had he thrown the football to Diggs, it could have been at least a huge gain, maybe a touchdown.



On the next play, Brady wanted to give Allen one side to look at, and so he lined up in a trips-bunch formation to Allen's left. Both Shakir and Kincaid ran short pivot routes, meaning they first went outside and then swiveled back to the inside.

Allen knew that he had both Kincaid or Shakir for a completion underneath. Rather than work to deliver to Shakir, he pulled the ball down and tried to improvise. Once he was out of the pocket, he threw it away.



Had Allen taken the underneath opportunities on either of these two plays at the end, the Bills might have been closer to a field goal attempt, could have achieved another first down, or had a choice to make on a fourth-and-short.

The result was a field goal attempt to tie the game. I have to believe that had the Bills been in fourth-and-short, they would have gone for it and perhaps had the outcome they deserved.

Conclusion​

This was a heartbreaking loss for a team and a quarterback in Allen that has endured so much this season. This game came down to just a few plays that offensively, done differently, could have changed the outcome. The effort and the drive was there. Offensively, at the end of this game, the Bills had exactly what they were hoping for, control of the last possession to win the game. But this final sequence was a bit out of system. This is not a criticism, it is just a fact. It is curious that the struggle to get the ball to Diggs, to get him touches, to get him involved, might in some ways have hindered the offensive philosophy.

Allen is an extraordinary talent. Allen’s incomparable ability needs to be shaped into an iron rod of belief in the system, in how to play to win championships, and with a supporting cast of players, some of whom are already on the roster.

Having had the privilege of grading every professional game of Allen’s tremendous career, I am confident he is the man who can make this into a Super Bowl story and once and for all extinguish the demons of the past. He can shape his beliefs and Billieve, but he cannot do it alone and McDermott and General Manager Brandon Beane must add the right pieces to this unfinished puzzle of talent.

 

[HipKat]

Bills All-22 review: Digging into Stefon Diggs' lack of involvement vs. Chiefs

Stefon Diggs' lack of production is among the lingering conundrums for the Bills as the offseason begins.

theathletic.com

Another season full of promise and potential yielded another playoff disappointment for the Buffalo Bills, who were eliminated by the Kansas City Chiefs for the third time in four seasons. Although the Bills played well enough to push the Super Bowl defending champions to a three-point margin, once again they were left packing up their lockers prematurely.

The loss to the Chiefs may signal some legitimate offseason changes from how the Bills built up their roster over the last seven years. But the film is also quite revealing as to why the Bills were on the wrong side of the result once more.

Here are several takeaways from the All-22 of where things went wrong, what it could signal for the offseason and who is trending up heading into the 2024 season.

Digging into Diggs’ lack of involvement opens up portal to clear offseason priority​

Franchise quarterback Josh Allen played a nearly mistake-free, outstanding game that nearly willed his team to victory. But that’s not to say the offense wasn’t without its warts. The Bills played a very deliberate brand of offense, wanting to control the ball and time of possession without taking many chances deep down the field. While it kept the Bills on the field a lot and limited the Chiefs’ chances, Buffalo’s margin for error on offense was limited all the same.

The approach is eerily reminiscent of Bills teams of the early 2010s under Chan Gailey, when they trotted out a receiver trio of Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones and David Nelson. They all had some athletic limitations with that trio but were at their best working underneath routes with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, who had his own limitations throwing the deep ball. They also found a certain degree of success with a good running game but eventually, teams figured them out and dared them to beat them deep. It rendered that offense far less effective and needed to depend on short-choppy gains and long drives. It’s not an exact fit because Allen has an outstanding arm as opposed to Fitzpatrick and in this game, tried to push the ball down the field on a few occasions. But it comes down to the players he’s targeting and where he’s targeting them.

Diggs has shown the ability to uncover deep down the field against any defense, but the chances often come after a long build-up of underneath targets and routes before the Bills ultimately test a team deep. Each time it’s happened over the last month of the season, though, Allen and Diggs have been unable to connect. The drop against the Chiefs was on Diggs, but both parties are at fault as the big play has gone missing. The intermediate game also has been absent between the two, and the numbers from the Chiefs game reflects it, resulting in an all-or-nothing approach, and short targets just to make sure Diggs is getting involved.

Including the deep ball drop, Diggs’ average depth of target (aDOT) was only 9.4 yards for the game on eight targets. But when you remove that deep ball, Diggs aDOT was only 3.3 yards past the line of scrimmage, with all but one of those seven remaining targets at five yards or less.

Stefon Diggs target depth vs. KC

TARGET NO.	DEPTH OF TARGET
1	-1
2	15
3	4
4	-7
5	1
6	53
7	5
8	5

In the context of Diggs’ career with the Bills, just one year ago, he had an 11.7 yard aDOT for the entire season. This year’s was down by 1.5 yards, and 10 of his 19 games had an aDOT below 10 yards, according to TruMedia. It’s not a reflection on Diggs’ ability, because on film — even against the Chiefs — he’s showing a clear skill to uncover and separate. In the divisional round loss, the ball was already out before an intermediate route could even occur for Diggs several times. So it does seem Diggs’ skill set is being squandered a bit.

Then, when you look at the aDOT of the entire receiving core against the Chiefs, you see an evident lack of players who challenge a defense down the field. Khalil Shakir was at 7.1 yards, Dalton Kincaid at 2.6, Dawson Knox at -1 and Deonte Harty at -4. Trent Sherfield had a 27.0-yard aDOT in the Gabe Davis X-receiver role, but much like Davis, showed difficulty in uncovering deep down the field. Sherfield, despite running 56 routes in the Bills’ two playoff games, came down with only one reception for 7 yards.

So if all the targets outside of Diggs are at their best in the underneath, much like the Chan Gailey Bills, that pins down a lot of what you can do as a passing offense — even with Josh Allen as the quarterback. A defense can give more attention to Diggs anytime he pushes past the underneath area while feeling confident the rest of the group can be hemmed in. Lacking an explosive quality with anyone outside of Diggs speaks to a position in desperate need of an addition this offseason. Kincaid and Shakir are two starting-caliber players in the short-to-intermediate game, but the Bills are lacking a true explosive option to pair with Diggs.

If they had it, it would enable Diggs to push past the short areas on the field and not put so much pressure on the one or two deep shots he gets a game. Whether that’s someone with only speed, or someone possessing a speed and size combination, for the Bills to get the most out of Allen, Diggs and their entire passing offense, they need a legitimate talent to pair with him. Otherwise, the Bills might continue to be the type of passing offense we saw late in the season and against the Chiefs.

Much of the Bills DL was no match for the physicality of the Chiefs OL​

For the second consecutive year during the divisional round, the Bills watched as their defensive line struggle significantly at the line of scrimmage. It was less about impacting Patrick Mahomes in the passing game, because he was getting the ball out quickly all game, and more about how poorly they stood up against the run game. The Chiefs boast one of the best interior offensive lines in the league, but the Bills were at full health on the defensive line, which makes for a legitimately disappointing result for how the Bills built their team this season.

With the exception of a player or two, the Bills were getting pushed aside, leading to big gains from Isiah Pacheco for much of the game. Defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones both played one of their worst games as run defenders all season, and in limited opportunities, Linval Joseph and Tim Settle had the same result. Then on the edges, the Chiefs picked on Shaq Lawson on a few separate wide rushes, which is surprising because Lawson’s biggest strength is as an edge run defender. It also wasn’t a game best suited to Leonard Floyd, who worsened as a run defender as the year continued. With only three core rotational defensive linemen signed for 2024 and no real cap space to bring multiple players back, the Bills could be heading for an overhaul along the defensive line next season.

Chiefs attacked a hobbled Klein​

While the defensive line’s struggles certainly contributed greatly to their defensive demise, the Chiefs made it a point to go after A.J. Klein in multiple ways. Early in the game it was in coverage, which yielded several opportunities for Mahomes and the passing attack to win over the middle of the field. But as the game wore on, especially as Klein showed that he was playing hurt and a step slower than even normal, the Chiefs looked to make the Bills pay for leaving him on the field by using Pacheco on wide rushes as much as they could. It forced Klein to run a long distance on a bad leg and get through traffic on the way there, and a lot of times, he didn’t get to the ball carrier. The Bills needed more than they got out of the middle linebacker position. Sticking with Klein on an every-snap basis was one of their biggest downfalls in the matchup.

Rousseau was getting instant pressures​

You may have noticed the omission of Greg Rousseau’s name from the run-defending portion. That’s because he was one of the few plus defenders on the field for the Bills during the game. But it was his work as a pass rusher that stood out above all else. Rousseau, working on either side of the line, showed a clear ability to gain access to the backfield in short order. There were even times he worked against a double team, and was able to split it to get into the backfield on Mahomes. It was especially impressive with how often Mahomes was getting the ball out quickly to attack the Bills defense, yet Rousseau was winning his matchups. Rousseau, specifically with his work on the right side of the defense after being a left defensive end only in his first two seasons, clearly took a step forward in his third year. They will depend on him in 2024, and in a big way, because he is one of the only defensive line pieces under contract.

The Bills might have something very good in Spencer Brown​

In terms of the offensive line, much of last offseason was spent wondering if the Bills would look to replace third-year offensive tackle Spencer Brown. The team remained steadfast in their belief of Brown anytime he was brought up in a news conference setting, and they backed it up by not adding any legitimate competition for Brown in the buildup to training camp. The faith and patience in the young player paid off, and ever since the Bills returned from their bye week, Brown has been the best player of the starting five and one of their best players, period. He put together another impressive performance against the Chiefs, controlling his one-on-ones and proving to be a force as a run blocker. Since the bye week, Brown carried a 3.29 GPA over the final seven games. He went from having the lowest season GPA of the offensive line at 2.67, to passing left guard Connor McGovern and nearly passing both right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and center Mitch Morse for the year with the post-bye stretch. With how he finished the season, he’s a clear building block for the offensive line moving forward and should he have a good beginning in 2024, he likely will be a consideration for a long-term extension by the team.

 

[HipKat]

2023 Bills All-22 grades vs. Chiefs (Divisional round)

RANK	PLAYER	POS.	GRADE	PLAY COUNT	SNAP %
1	Josh Allen	QB	A	77	100.00%
2	Spencer Brown	RT	A-	77	100.00%
3	Mitch Morse	C	A-	77	100.00%
4	Khalil Shakir	WR	B+	54	70.13%
5	Dion Dawkins	LT	B+	77	100.00%
6	O’Cyrus Torrence	RG	B+	77	100.00%
7	Greg Rousseau	DE	B+	32	64.00%
8	A.J. Epenesa	DE	B+	25	50.00%
9	James Cook	RB	B	39	50.65%
10	Ty Johnson	RB	B	21	27.27%
11	David Edwards	G	B	21	27.27%
12	Von Miller	DE	B	15	30.00%
13	Dalton Kincaid	TE	B	48	62.34%
14	Dawson Knox	TE	B-	31	40.26%
15	Stefon Diggs	WR	C+	69	89.61%
16	Leonard Floyd	DE	C+	19	38.00%
17	Tyrel Dodson	LB	C+	39	78.00%
18	Taron Johnson	NCB	C+	50	100.00%
19	Dane Jackson	CB	C+	50	100.00%
20	Trent Sherfield	WR	C	66	85.71%
21	Ed Oliver	DT	C	40	80.00%
22	DaQuan Jones	DT	C	30	60.00%
23	Connor McGovern	LG	C	77	100.00%
24	Rasul Douglas	CB	C	50	100.00%
25	Micah Hyde	S	C	50	100.00%
26	Jordan Poyer	S	C	50	100.00%
27	Shaq Lawson	DE	D+	13	26.00%
28	A.J. Klein	LB	F	49	98.00%

Players with fewer than 15 snaps:
RB Latavius Murray (14), DE Shaq Lawson (13), DT Tim Settle (13), DT Linval Joseph (11), WR Deonte Harty (9), TE Quintin Morris (8), LB Dorian Williams (6), FB Reggie Gilliam (4), DB Cam Lewis (4), NCB Siran Neal (3), WR Andy Isabella (1), LB Tyler Matakevich (1)

Active players without an offensive or defensive snap:
QB Kyle Allen, IOL Ryan Bates, OT Ryan Van Demark, DE Kingsley Jonathan, CB Kaiir Elam, S Damar Hamlin

Inactives:
*(Total games inactive in 2023 season while on the active roster)
IOL Alec Anderson (19), DT Poona Ford (11), LB Baylon Spector (4), CB Christian Benford (3), S Taylor Rapp (3), WR Gabe Davis (2), LB Terrel Bernard (1)

The core:
*(Position players who play the core-four special teams units of kickoff, kickoff return, punt and punt return)
NCB Siran Neal (100 percent), FB Reggie Gilliam (93), TE Quintin Morris (93), DE Kingsley Jonathan (93), LB Tyler Matakevich (93), DB Cam Lewis (93), S Damar Hamlin (93), WR Andy Isabella (73), WR Deonte Harty (47), RB Ty Johnson (40), CB Kaiir Elam (33), LB Tyrel Dodson (20), DE Leonard Floyd (7), DE Greg Rousseau (7), DT Ed Oliver (7), LB A.J. Klein (7), CB Rasul Douglas (7), CB Dane Jackson (7), S Jordan Poyer (7)

 

[HipKat]

2023 Bills All-22 grades through Divisional round

RANK	PLAYER	POS.	GPA	2023 SNAPS	LAST WEEK
1	Matt Milano	LB	3.58	211	1
2	Ed Oliver	DT	3.40	816	2
3	Josh Allen	QB	3.38	1270	5
4	Greg Rousseau	DE	3.32	659	6
5	Stefon Diggs	WR	3.30	1074	4
6	Leonard Floyd	DE	3.21	628	9
7	Khalil Shakir	WR	3.21	703	11
8	Taron Johnson	NCB	3.20	1045	8
9	DaQuan Jones	DT	3.20	240	3
10	Dalton Kincaid	TE	3.20	784	10
11	Rasul Douglas	CB	3.19	553	7
12	James Cook	RB	3.14	714	12
13	Dion Dawkins	LT	3.14	1264	13
14	Christian Benford	CB	3.01	837	14
15	Gabe Davis	WR	2.96	966	15
16	O’Cyrus Torrence	RG	2.94	1308	16
17	Mitch Morse	C	2.93	1273	17
18	Spencer Brown	RT	2.90	1305	18
19	A.J. Epenesa	DE	2.86	436	20
20	Dawson Knox	TE	2.83	546	19
21	Quintin Morris	TE	2.79	206	NR
22	Terrel Bernard	LB	2.79	1031	24
23	Connor McGovern	LG	2.78	1279	21
24	Jordan Poyer	S	2.77	1102	22
25	Micah Hyde	S	2.75	912	23
26	Latavius Murray	RB	2.70	375	26
27	Shaq Lawson	DE	2.64	353	27
28	Trent Sherfield	WR	2.62	500	25
29	Dorian Williams	LB	2.53	238	28
30	Dane Jackson	CB	2.51	578	29
31	Taylor Rapp	S	2.50	421	30
32	Von Miller	DE	2.43	298	34
33	Tim Settle	DT	2.42	412	31
34	Tyrel Dodson	LB	2.41	588	32
35	Jordan Phillips	DT	2.40	392	33
36	Kaiir Elam	CB	2.11	209	35

*Minimum 200 snaps

How the standards work

When the All-22 film becomes available, we’ll go through and watch every player on every play as many times as necessary to assess letter grades. It is a subjective analysis, and it’s important to note we do not know the play calls and full responsibilities. The grades stem from technique, effort and presumed liability.

The study accounts only for players who take a snap on offense or defense. Players with fewer than 15 snaps — unless they significantly impact the game — will not factor into weekly rankings. The grades range from an ‘A’ (a perfect 4.00 GPA) to ‘F’ (0.00 GPA). There is no such thing as an ‘A+’ on this grading system. Season-long grades will be tallied and documented, with a single game’s grade weighted based on how much the player was on the field in a given week.