Who has the advantage as the Buffalo Bills prepare to take on the New England Patriots?
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When the Bills run
It could be tough sledding on the ground as New England ranks second in the NFL in yards allowed per game (84.8) and first in yards allowed per attempt (3.2). Since Week 12, the Patriots are giving up just 59 rushing yards per game. Over that same time span, however, the Bills are averaging a whopping 165.5 yards per game. Last week, James Cook topped 1,000 yards for the season – the first Bills running back to hit that milestone since LeSean McCoy in 2017. Watching Cook go to work against an elite run defense will be interesting. The Bills used Leonard Fournette against the Chargers as their second running back, but if Ty Johnson is able to play, they face a decision on whether to call up Fournette again, or leave him on the practice squad.
EDGE: Patriots.
Gabe Davis re-emerged last week, finishing with 130 receiving yards and a touchdown. Davis did all of his damage on hitches and go routes against the Chargers, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. He caught two passes for 77 yards and his score on hitch routes, and caught passes on two go routes for 53 yards. On all other routes run, he was targeted just once and did not make a catch. Also according to Next Gen Stats, quarterback Josh Allen was traveling 14.56 mph when he threw the 57-yard touchdown to Davis. It was Allen’s 11th passing touchdown this season on the run (defined as moving more than 8 mph at the time of the throw), which is the most in the NFL. The Chargers blitzed Allen on 50% of his drop-backs – the second straight game an opponent has blitzed him at least half the time. Stefon Diggs has put up big numbers against the Patriots, with seven receiving touchdowns in his first seven games. He’s also topped 50 receiving yards in all those games.
EDGE: Bills.
When the Patriots run
New England placed Rhamondre Stevenson on injured reserve this week, so the offense will continue to run through Ezekiel Elliott. In the past three games, Elliott has played 86% of the snaps and handled 75% of the team’s rushing attempts. He has also averaged 21.6 touches per game in that time. Shutting him down has to be a primary focus for the Buffalo defense, which is expected to get defensive tackle DaQuan Jones back in the lineup. Elliott is averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.
EDGE: Bills.
When the Patriots throw
Elliott has also been active in the passing game recently, with a target share of 28.4% since Week 14, according to FTN Fantasy, a total that ranks as 12th highest in the NFL over that stretch. The Patriots are throwing to Demario Davis a lot since he returned to the lineup in Week 15. He has a target share of 22%, including 31% on third and fourth downs, according to FTN Fantasy. Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe has put up respectable numbers in his four starts, going 2-2 over that stretch and completing 68% of his passes for more than 800 yards and six touchdowns and two interceptions.
EDGE: Bills.
Coaching
The Bills are going after their 10th win of the season, which would give them at least that many for five seasons in a row – the first time in franchise history that has ever been accomplished. They’re also looking for their fifth straight playoff appearance, which they can accomplish with a little help, and their first four-game winning streak of 2022. Will this be Bill Belichick’s final game in Buffalo as the Patriots’ head coach? There has been plenty of speculation that the Patriots and Belichick will split up after this season. “I think most coaches, if not all coaches, are learning from coach Belichick and then also trying to get to where he’s been for years,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said.
EDGE: Patriots.
Prediction
Bills 23, Patriots 17.