The Steelers and Bills meet in what should be a physical playoff showdown. The Athletic's Joe Buscaglia and Mike DeFabo break it down.
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The
Pittsburgh Steelers and
Buffalo Bills might identify with each other’s paths to this point.
Both teams withstood injury and drama in 2023 and capitalized on late-season heroics to reach the postseason. If any teams are prepared for the rigors of the
NFL playoffs, it’s these two.
The Steelers attempt to become the first No. 7 seed to win a playoff game while the Bills aim for a fourth consecutive wild-card win Sunday. It’ll be cold and windy in Orchard Park, N.Y., too, which could set the scene for a physical affair.
The Athletic’s Mike DeFabo and Joe Buscaglia break down all things Steelers-Bills ahead of Sunday’s matchup.
These two teams have had roller coaster seasons. How would you describe the 2023 season for the team you cover?
DeFabo: The 10-7 record is exactly what I predicted before the season. But the way they got here? No one could have ever anticipated that.
The Steelers looked dead in the water, reeling after losing three games in a row — including back-to-back home letdowns to the two-win
Arizona Cardinals and
New England Patriots and a no-show performance in Indianapolis — to fall to 7-7. At the time, their playoff odds dropped to 4 percent, according to Austin Mock’s projections in
The Athletic.
Kenny Pickett was hurt.
Mitch Trubisky was ineffective. The opportunistic defense that carried them to seven wins was missing the top four safeties and two of the three inside linebackers. Yet, somehow, third-string afterthought
Mason Rudolph stepped in and rallied the Steelers to three consecutive wins and Pittsburgh got the help it needed to get into the playoffs. To put that in perspective, Rudolph was building his resume last offseason and considering a career in commercial real estate. Now, he’s starting a playoff game.
Buscaglia: The Bills have been trying to understand who they are in 2023. Having been accustomed to a lot of regular-season success over the previous three seasons, the Bills entered this season with an extremely talented roster and tons of questions following another premature exit in the postseason. Sean McDermott took over calling the defense
after Leslie Frazier left the organization. Ken Dorsey remained the offensive coordinator but the offense hadn’t grown enough with him in the post. Their in-game results were as unpredictable as they’d seen since Josh Allen’s second season in 2019. There were a few catalysts throughout the year, though. It began with
the Dorsey firing and the appointment of Joe Brady as the interim offensive coordinator, to which the Bills definitely felt a boost. Then, after a gut-wrenching overtime loss in Philadelphia, the Bills went to their Week 13 bye, knowing any other losses could mean their season was over. While it wasn’t a perfect stretch of football, they found their identity and watched as both sides of the ball took turns bailing out the other. Now the Bills enter the playoffs, having seen their absolute lowest point earlier in the year to being at their highest — with room to grow as an offense. There is a lot of optimism inside the building heading into the postseason.
What is the one thing that must happen for the team you cover to win Sunday?
DeFabo: I’ll do one better and give you two:
Najee Harris needs to go beast mode in the snow and an opportunistic Steelers defense that’s relied on timely turnovers needs to force
Josh Allen into mistakes.
Since Week 9, when the Steelers inserted first-round pick
Broderick Jones into the lineup at right tackle, Pittsburgh transformed into the league’s fifth-best rushing attack, averaging 145 yards per game. Harris is coming off back-to-back 100-plus yard performances and is playing the best football of his career. He should be able to take advantage of a Bills defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry, which is tied for fifth-worst in the league. On the flip side, Allen has turned the ball over the second-most in the league (22) and the Steelers defense was tied for the eighth-most turnovers produced (27). To me, a lot of this game is going to come down to how many times Allen turns the ball over, when and where.
Buscaglia: McDermott started the week saying how the Steelers were one of the most physical teams they’ve seen the entire year. It would be one thing if the weather was going to be pristine Sunday, but the closer we get, the more it looks like both snowfall and wind are going to be factors. While their physicality has improved dramatically as the season continued, the Bills have not had to go up against an imposingly big and physical offensive line like the Steelers have in a bad weather game. The Steelers have made it clear their running game will be a factor regardless of conditions. Making matters worse, the Bills may not have their best run-stuffing linebacker on the active roster in
Tyrel Dodson, who is dealing with a shoulder injury and did not practice Thursday. They’ll need the defensive tackle duo of
Ed Oliver and
DaQuan Jones, two of the Bills’ best players, to be factors against the run and keep their linebackers, safeties and nickel corner
Taron Johnson clean from blockers. Jones is the big addition because they’ve barely had him available this season, and the defensive line is different with him in the lineup at one-technique. If the Bills can do that, and stack the box to limit the Steelers’ effectiveness on the ground, they should be able to do enough on offense to claim a win.
Injuries are prevalent for both teams heading into Sunday, particularly on the defensive side. How does Pittsburgh deal without T.J. Watt? How can Buffalo deal without Rasul Douglas if he can’t play or isn’t fully healthy?
DeFabo: T.J. Watt has a legitimate case for Defensive Player in the Year after leading the league with 19 sacks and finishing fifth in TFL (19), fifth in forced fumbles (four) and third in fumble recoveries (three). He also added an interception and defensive touchdown for good measure. On any snap, he has the potential to reshape the entire game. Without him, the Steelers historically have struggled. They’re just 1-10 all-time.
That said, the Steelers are in a much better place to handle an injury to their star edge rusher than ever before. They added nine-year veteran
Markus Golden to the fold this offseason. Just last game, he recovered a fumble in a critical moment and recorded one of his four sacks on the season, a stat that’s pretty impressive considering his limited playing time. Rookie
Nick Herbig has also been capitalizing on every opportunity he gets. A perfect example was two games ago in Seattle when he had just two defensive snaps, but used one to create a strip, sack and fumble recovery. Fans in Pittsburgh have been clamoring to see more of Herbig — and they’ll get it on a huge stage.
Buscaglia: Not to keep things going with the weather talk, but if there’s one thing that does benefit the Bills, it’s that not having their top cornerback in Rasul Douglas available won’t be as big of a detriment as it usually would. The Bills have specialized in a zone-heavy defense that asks their front four to get pressure on the opposing quarterback, which takes pressure off the seven players in coverage when the defensive linemen get home. When the Steelers do drop back to pass, expect to see a lot of that to make up for Douglas. If he can’t play, the bigger loss might be Dodson, with how much the Steelers figure to run. Dodson is not a great coverage linebacker, but he usually excels in limiting the run between the tackles. Without him, that likely puts
Baylon Spector into the lineup who, after last week, has 37 career defensive snaps. Spector played well enough last week replacing Dodson, but that lack of experience could come back to haunt the Bills on Sunday.
These two teams should be used to playing in cold weather, but how might Sunday’s cold temperatures and wind affect the team you cover? Could they be equalizers?
DeFabo: The company line in Pittsburgh is that both teams have to play in the weather, so it’s not an advantage or disadvantage. That’s a lie. The worse the weather, the better it is for the Steelers. They need heavy winds to help ground Allen and the Bills’ dangerous passing attack. On the flip side, they built this team for brutal weather. They want to hand the ball to Harris 20 times and get in a sloppy, low-scoring rock fight.
Buscaglia: It can definitely be an equalizer for these two teams because it favors what the Steelers are the best at on offense. But the flip side is that it likely makes the Steelers far more one-dimensional than they are now, which could allow the Bills to stack the box with eight players — likely dropping safety
Jordan Poyer to help out more often than not. Allen’s legs can also be a bit of a cheat code in a game like this one, as the Bills have gotten more comfortable using him as a rusher to support their standard running game since Brady took over as offensive coordinator. And as I said before, the Bills also will not be afraid to throw the ball in any condition. Look no further than the windy game against the Patriots in 2021, where the Bills threw the ball 30 times. I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that sometimes the weather report can be a bit on the optimistic side for snow accumulation around the stadium. Orchard Park snow is built differently.
Bills fans still want a little more out of Stefon Diggs, who hasn’t seen a 100-yard performance since October. Meanwhile, it’s George Pickens’ first playoff game as a Steeler and he continues to improve. What are you looking for from each receiver Sunday?
DeFabo: The very first pass Rudolph threw in his first start against the
Cincinnati Bengals, he hit Pickens on a quick slant that the freakishly talented receiver turned into an 86-yard touchdown. That play is like a microcosm of Pickens’ last three games. Rudolph’s willingness to stand in the pocket, take a hit and deliver the deep ball has reinvigorated Pickens. But when it comes to expectations, the question is: How much attention will the Bills pay him? Frequently, opponents have provided safety help over the top or bracketed Pickens to try to take him out of the game. I imagine the Bills will take a similar approach.
Buscaglia: Especially if they’re without
Gabe Davis on Sunday, I expect Allen to get Diggs involved very early in the game, either through quick screens or on underneath routes. Diggs proved again last week that his route-running skills remain some of the best in the NFL and he can win against any cornerback. But Diggs will also be supported by the up-and-coming receiving options
Khalil Shakir and tight end
Dalton Kincaid, who have become instrumental to the Bills’ passing attack. Getting those contributions from both players last week could give the Steelers pause from focusing too much on Diggs. The Bills know the stakes after being pushed out of the playoffs earlier than they would have liked the last two seasons and having Diggs be a central figure in their offense could be the difference between a win or a loss.
Both teams’ offensive coordinators were fired midseason. How has each offense changed since then? Better, worse or same?
DeFabo: Through the first 11 games under former offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the offense was truthfully painful to watch. It was a mess of three-and-outs that produced just 15.0 points per game. With quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan calling the plays and running backs coach Eddie Faulkner serving as interim offensive coordinator, that number has improved to 19.7 points per game. While this is still Canada’s playbook, we’ve seen subtle schematic changes. One thing in particular that’s changed is the Steelers have utilized 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends) much more recently to help add bigger bodies and add extra gaps for the opponent to defend. The other part of this is that Rudolph has provided a real spark. The Steelers didn’t score 30 points the entire season. They accomplished that goal twice in both of Rudolph’s first two starts.
Now here’s the thing, the Bengals team Rudolph faced in his first start is arguably the worst defense in the league. The
Seattle Seahawks were among the league’s worst rushing defenses. And the
Baltimore Ravens rested their stars. This will by far be the best defense Rudolph has faced this season. He hasn’t thrown an interception in his three starts, but I wonder if he can continue that against a ballhawking Bills defense that’s produced the third-most turnovers this year.
Buscaglia: The Bills aren’t running markedly different concepts with Brady as their offensive coordinator. Still, since he’s taken over the role, the team has isolated the things that make them most successful. They’ve shown more attention to running the ball to help the passing offense, and perhaps the biggest change, we’ve seen the Bills playing with a lot more energy since the Dorsey firing. McDermott knew the Bills needed some kind of change after disappointing losses to the Patriots and the
Denver Broncos, and Brady entered at the perfect time with a fresh voice and perspective. Brady has established an excellent, collaborative relationship with all the offensive players on the roster and has continued to try new things while paring down the playbook to concepts they like running the best. Between Allen running the ball a bit more, utilizing more pin-and-pull and tackle-lead rushing attempts, targeting receivers with screens and having Kincaid become a high-snap player, the Bills have seen their offense have a more cohesive plan every week.
