Super Wild Card: Steel Curtain Predictions - Merged all Steelers Threads

Predict the Margin of Victory

  • Bills 1-3

    Votes: 3 25.0%

  • Bills 3-10

    Votes: 2 16.7%

  • Bills 10+

    Votes: 6 50.0%

  • Steelers 1-3

    Votes: 1 8.3%

  • Steelers 3-10

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Steelers 10+

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    12
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Bills-Steelers thoughts: Predictions, weather and the Josh Allen advantage

The weather is the big storyline surrounding Monday's wild-card game. How will each team deal with the conditions?
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After ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak, the Buffalo Bills have set themselves up with the favorable position of hosting their opening postseason game, doing so against the worst qualifying team by record of the conference. The No. 2 Bills will take on the No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers, and if successful, Buffalo will host another playoff game next weekend.

But in all likelihood, this game won’t be routine. Monday’s weather forecast for Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y., calls for fridged temperatures of 18 degrees, with it feeling more like 3 degrees at game time. The good news for fans is aside from a few scattered flurries just before kickoff, there shouldn’t be any precipitation during the game.

The game, originally scheduled for Sunday at 1 p.m. ET, was postponed until Monday over safety concerns for fans attempting to travel to the game due to a winter storm in the area. The Bills said the decision to postpone the game was made in consultation with the Steelers and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul “in the best interest of public safety” as the area prepared for the storm.

The travel ban that included Buffalo was lifted at 6 a.m. ET, according to the Buffalo police department.

What does the matchup look like in general, and how will weather impact things for the Bills and Steelers? Here are several thoughts on the game, along with a prediction.

Pros and cons of bad weather defense vs. the Steelers​

The Steelers come into the game with the reputation of being a run-heavy offense, and they’ve found a lot of success doing so since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada in late November. So whenever there is potential for a bad weather game and limited possessions, it could level the playing field a bit for the team with less talent if it can run the football proficiently. The Steelers fit that mold, which could make for a closer score than it would be in normal weather conditions. The Steelers’ offensive line plays with power and looks to win matchups through physicality, something Bills coach Sean McDermott is prepping his team for. That style of run-blocking can be an advantage in poor weather conditions, and having the physical running back to exploit it like Najee Harris, it all builds the case for the Steelers. And if that can help them control the time of possession, it creates fewer opportunities for the Bills to put up points. That should rightfully have the Bills a bit concerned heading into the game, but all of that is the worst-case scenario and not looking at the entire picture.

Although the Steelers are a good rushing unit, they also are starting a quarterback who began the year as their third option. Mason Rudolph has helped the Steelers put up more points, but in a bad weather game just last week, Rudolph’s passing limitations really stood out. He’s more of a rhythmic short-to-intermediate thrower than someone who pushes the ball downfield. Without the full confidence in having him be a major piece of their offensive outlook, that can actually help the Bills’ defensive structure. It will be a chore to limit the Steelers ground game in potential bad weather conditions, though it would be far more difficult to do so if Rudolph were a major threat to gouge their defense through the air. That could allow the Bills to comfortably bring Jordan Poyer down a bit farther into the box and go all in on limiting the Steelers running game.

The Bills defensive line will play a major role in keeping the second-level defenders clean from blocks, and we could see high snap percentages from defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, along with run stuffing defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Shaq Lawson. Because the Steelers thrive most between the tackles, that will at least condense the area enough to try and help limit the Steelers’ best means of moving the ball. Between the pros and cons, it will likely meet somewhere in the middle, but the Bills’ talent on defense in key spots could give them the advantage to win on these run-stuffing downs more often than not.

The Josh Allen advantage​

In the McDermott era, there have been two substantial weather games of note. There was the snow game against the Indianapolis Colts in 2017 when it went from clear in the parking lots in the morning to a band of snow dumping down on all the players midgame along with wind. Then, there was the windy affair against the New England Patriots in 2021, which impacted offensive approaches. In the Colts game, the Bills ran the ball 51 times and passed it only 16 — a pass attempt rate of 23.9 percent. Against the Patriots, the Bills ran the ball only 25 times to 30 passing attempts, a pass attempt rate of 54.6 percent.

The difference between those two games? Josh Allen’s presence in the starting lineup. Back when the Bills were scouting quarterbacks ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft, finding someone who could play through Buffalo’s conditions when they presented themselves was a piece of their evaluation that Allen passed with flying colors. So, with potential for bad weather, it at least keeps the door open to the Bills still maintaining their passing identity.

“Just because Josh has those qualities, you never really know what it’s going to look like on Sunday at 1 o’clock. Or at 2 o’clock. Or at 3 o’clock,” McDermott said Friday. “But having that ability to at least entertain that option, that doesn’t always happen. In the case of offensive football overall, most people would say, ‘We don’t have the option.’ So at least we have the option, at least at this point, to entertain that.”

Conversely, the Steelers will start Rudolph, who likely pushes them toward being far more one-dimensional than the Bills with Allen. Now, if the game gets close to 50 to 60 mph winds, which is what’s projected on the Saturday evening before the game, that cuts out everyone’s ability to throw. But the current forecast has the winds slowing down closer to kickoff, which would open up the opportunity for the Bills to throw more capably. But even without throwing, Allen just dropping back to pass could be an advantage with how dangerous he can be as a scrambler in a setting like this one. Allen’s mobility will be a critical component to moving the ball in the elements to help the ground game be as effective as it has been during the Bills’ five-game winning streak.

Why Tyrel Dodson’s availability could be huge​

When Thursday’s practice began, it was a notable absence for the Bills to be without starting outside linebacker Tyrel Dodson, especially after he was a limited participant at Wednesday’s walk-through. His absence cast doubt on whether he could play. But after McDermott got an encouraging update on Dodson on Friday, the linebacker was back on the practice field. It’s a notable improvement heading into the matchup, and Dodson’s presence could be especially important for this opponent with these potential weather conditions.

Dodson can be a flawed defender in coverage, but as a run defender, he can be an integral piece to the Bills’ defensive puzzle. In a setting that could lead to the Steelers running the ball a large percentage of the game, Dodson, who loves to get downhill to plug a rushing lane, could do so unabashedly. Dodson’s lack of speed wouldn’t be a massive concern, either, because of how the Steelers like to rush between the tackles and how much the weather conditions could neutralize some of the speed to the outside. Replacing Baylon Spector’s inexperience with the defined quality of Dodson’s run-stuffing prowess could give the Bills a big advantage in dealing with the Steelers’ rushing attack. If he plays and is able to make stops at or behind the line of scrimmage, that will go a long way toward the Bills coming away with a win.

Gabe Davis, Taylor Rapp and maybe Rasul Douglas — how big of a loss for this matchup?​

Although the Bills entered the Miami Dolphins game completely healthy, they left with four injuries to key contributors. Dodson was one of them, but the list also includes starting wide receiver Gabe Davis, starting cornerback Rasul Douglas and dime safety Taylor Rapp. Davis and Rapp have been ruled out, with Douglas earning the questionable tag despite not practicing at all during the week.

In the case of Douglas and Rapp, should the weather conditions be as poor as expected, it does lessen the impact of not having either of those players. While Douglas is a good tackler and a bigger-bodied cornerback, backup Dane Jackson has proved to be a solid run defender and tackler. It’s been the coverage piece that plagues Jackson the most. With Rapp, should the Steelers run the ball as much as we’d expect, that would lessen the need for Rapp to enter the game as a third safety.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Davis would have been a valuable piece of their offense for this kind of game setting that’s likely to come along. Davis is an excellent blocker for his position and has proved to be an excellent improvisational route runner when plays break down in the pocket. Those two skills would help the Bills a great deal in consistently moving the ball, but they’ll need to rely on the combination of Trent Sherfield, Khalil Shakir or the Bills going into 12 personnel to have the best path to offensive success.

Projected practice squad elevations: RB Leonard Fournette, WR Andy Isabella

Projected inactives: RB Latavius Murray, WR Gabe Davis, OL Alec Anderson, DE Kingsley Jonathan, DT Poona Ford, CB Rasul Douglas, S Taylor Rapp

Prediction: Bills 20, Steelers 9​

The weather is the big story and it could be a legitimate factor in the path to victory. The Steelers have the reputation for being able to run the ball, though the Bills’ offensive line doesn’t get as much credit as it deserves for having an excellent season with good run blockers in left tackle Dion Dawkins, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown. With running ability with their backs, Allen utilized as a rusher and having the option to be two-dimensional with Allen as a passer, I think the Bills come away victorious despite the weather conditions. It likely will be a tighter game than many would expect in a normal weather game, but the Bills have shown the ability to win in several ways during their winning streak. That should give them an edge in learning how to deal with another set of circumstances. I think the Bills move the ball well enough on three or four drives to give themselves the scoring edge they need over what could be a one-dimensional Steelers offense.
 
I will be lowering my expectations. 24 to 20 Squeelers. This one has bullshit and excuses galore written all over it.
 
Balls:
Bills Defense, To hold up with all those injuries is remarkable, even against an unseasoned QB is notable! Also, they did a very good job vs the run that Pittsburgh had made its strength. Winning the Turnover battle.

Bills Offense: Josh - taking the offense on his back when needed. That run for a TD was unbelievable!! A few passes got away and it could have been the wind but he showed great touch on his throws, especially in the 1st half. Final stats: 21/30 203yrds, 3TD's, 0 INT's.
The O-Line gave Josh great protection all day!

Martin: Coming back wit ha gorgeous punt after getting hurt!

Coaching: Brady was masterful in the 1st half. McD had the Defense playing at their best.

Fans: Showed up and never let up in frigid conditions!!

Goats:
McD: AGAIN took Time Outs on Defense before the 2-minute warning in the 1st half leaving us with zero on the last drive. Why does NO ONE get this guy to understand how that will be the reason we lose a playoff game and just because you have Time Outs doesn't mean you have to use them?

The Injury Bug: Enough already! Go bother another team for a change.

Zebra Watch: I thought they called a good game. They let enough go that it didn't affect the outcome or stall any drives. On the sideline fumble, it was too close to tell if the ball hit the Steelers player's helmet or not. Not enough to overturn.
 
buffalonews.com

Complete coverage: Buffalo Bills defeat Pittsburgh Steelers to advance to divisional round

The Buffalo Bills defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 on Monday and now get ready to host the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. Here is our complete coverage.
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The Buffalo Bills defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-17 on Monday and now get ready to host the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. Here is our complete coverage.

Kaiir Elam logs interception in return: 'Everything that I've been through has made me stronger'​

In the Bills’ 31-17 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium, Elam came in for an injured Christian Benford toward the end of the first quarter, his first game action since Oct. 22. Elam quickly made an impact, intercepting Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph in the end zone to give the Bills the ball back.

Ryan O'Halloran: Hey, offense and Josh Allen, this Bills run is all on you after defense is battered​

The Bills' defense is battered, which means it's on the offense and Josh Allen to carry this team to the Super Bowl.

George Pickens says Steelers played 'Bills and the refs' in wild-card loss​

Steelers receiver George Pickens wasn't happy about a no-call in the fourth quarter.

Report Card: Bills win the ground battle against Steelers​

Jay Skurski grades the Buffalo Bills in their 31-17 victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Plays that shaped the game: Khalil Shakir TD helps clinch Bills win over Steelers​

Khalil Shakir is a mere 23 years old and might have a decade of NFL games in his future. Yet no matter how long the Buffalo Bills’ receiver plays, his big touchdown Monday night surely will rank among his career highlights.

A.J. Klein talks about what led up to coming back to the Bills​


Photos: Bills defeat Steelers 31-17​

The Buffalo Bills advance to the AFC Divisional round after a 31-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium. Here are photos from…

Bills' Dawson Knox breaks down Shakir touchdown​


Bills' Sean McDermott on preparation for the game delay​


Josh Allen discusses Bills' win over Steelers​


Observations: Bills take next-man-up mentality to the next level in win over Steelers​

The Bills had to sweat out a 31-17 win that featured another run of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They did so, not surprisingly, thanks in large part to their quarterback’s heroics.

How It Happened: Top plays, standout players in Bills' wild-card win over Pittsburgh​

The Bills are on to the AFC divisional round for the fourth straight year. A recap of their win over Pittsburgh.

When Buffalo Bills play in divisional round​

With the Buffalo Bills' victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday, they will host the Kansas City Chiefs at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday.
 

Kaiir Elam logs interception in return: 'Everything that I've been through has made me stronger'​

Kaiir Elam had to laugh. Asked about his confidence, the Buffalo Bills’ second-year cornerback referenced some of the chatter.
“Still a bust, bro. Still a bust,” Elam said Monday night before laughing. “No, I’m just kidding – I ain’t no bust. I’m just playing with you.”

In the Bills’ 31-17 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium, Elam came in for an injured Christian Benford toward the end of the first quarter, his first game action since Oct. 22. Elam quickly made an impact, intercepting Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph in the end zone to give the Bills the ball back.

“It was just a man to man, (Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson) gave me a quick outside release, I got my hands on it,” Elam said on the play. “He tried to like speed up his feet and make me go over the top and I just slipped the route in the end zone and just was able to secure my two feet in.”

It was a critical play in the game, but also an affirmation of Elam’s larger journey back.

The Bills traded up to take Elam in the first round of the 2022 draft. As a rookie, he played in 13 games, starting six, rotating with the rest of the cornerback room. While Beane and Bills coaches continued to voice their support of Elam, he acknowledged the mental toll his rookie season took.

This year, he tore a ligament in his ankle in the preseason, though, he did not appear on the injury report for the first six games. He had been inactive for the first four games of the season, then played in three before he was inactive again. The Bills put him on injured reserve with an ankle injury Nov. 1, the day after they traded for another cornerback, Rasul Douglas. But general manager Brandon Beane said at the time that his faith in Elam was not wavering. Teammates told Elam to stay the course as well.

On Monday, their belief paid off.

“Just to see him like that, make such a huge play, especially in the red zone, change the momentum is huge. It was huge,” defensive back Cam Lewis said. “So, I’m so, so, so proud of him, just telling him like we always been telling him throughout the year like his time gonna come. Be patient and stay working hard, and he’s been doing that, so it’s good just to see him make those plays.”

Elam’s teammates quickly surrounded him to celebrate after the interception.

“It was special, man. It was really special,” Elam said. “It was just like, never give up. You know, never give up, no matter what you’re going through, no matter when you feel like there’s no light at the end of the tunnel. You never give up. You stay down, commit to your craft. I mean, my head was in the playbook, and I just … I’m thankful.

Even within the game, Elam had ups and downs. Two plays before his pick, he was flagged for defensive pass interference. Two plays before that, he couldn’t make the tackle on tight end Pat Freiermuth. But Elam knew not to let frustration seep in. He acknowledged that he was rusty. He needed to warm up a bit – his feet felt like bricks from standing on the sideline with the wind chill. Johnson was yapping in his face after the DPI call. But Elam had learned so much the last season as he bided his time to return to the field.

“I just felt like everything that I’ve been through has made me stronger,” Elam said. “So, I didn’t let those two plays really affect me. Like me, earlier in the season, I probably would have let things affect me. And through my whole story, man, I just been grown mentally stronger.

“I was trying to battle through something, my foot, and I really couldn’t run, couldn’t sprint, couldn’t nothing. But I’m trying to force myself to play and play well, and it just wouldn’t happen. But you know, I just want to thank God and my teammates for never allowing me to give up and always continue to work hard, especially when I got back healthy.”

On Monday, teammates recognized all the interception meant.

“Huge, huge,” safety Micah Hyde said. “He had a penalty before that. Learned from it, came back, didn’t let it hold him down and he didn’t get in his feelings or anything like that and went out and made a play. That was a huge play.”

“That play set the tone for that, just to build his confidence, just keep going and going,” Lewis added. “But we all know he’s got the tools, and he can play on this level, 100%. So we just want him just to go out there and show everybody else that he can as well.”

Ryan O'Halloran: Hey, offense and Josh Allen, this Bills run is all on you after defense is battered​

Hey, Buffalo Bills offense in general and quarterback Josh Allen in particular, it’s on you now. Just about every bit of the team’s Super Bowl aspirations is now your collective responsibility. No slip-ups or your season is done.
No pressure, guys.

How else to react or think after the Bills’ defense was further decimated by injuries during Monday’s 31-17 wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers? Already without two starters and one key backup, the Bills finished the game without four more players.

Saying the Bills will go only as far as Allen takes them isn’t a grand kind of exaggeration. He is so critical to both the run and pass games; if he stinks, the offense stinks. If he’s awesome, the offense follows. But now it’s really imperative. His defense is battered. His offense must shine.

Period.

This Bills offense must score early and must score late to put a game away … like they did against the Steelers.

And Allen must continue to make highlight plays and play turnover-free football … like he did against the Steelers.

The expectations moving forward defensively, starting against Kansas City on Sunday night, must officially be tempered and measured. They might dress players in the divisional round who weren’t under contract for the wild-card round.

It’s on you, Allen and the offense.

Don’t give opponents short fields for the patched-together defense to defend. Don’t go three-and-out to put more play-time pressure on guys in new roles. Do hit a big play (or a lot of them) to build a lead. And do manage the clock with long drives.

The Bills’ offense did a bunch of all of that against Pittsburgh.

The playoff opener was the Full Josh Experience, minus the boneheaded turnover; he went without a fumble or interception for only the fourth time in 18 games.

Allen started quickly – 5 for 5 for 56 yards on the opening drive, capped by a nine-yard touchdown pass to tight end Dawson Knox.

Allen had his fastball – his 29-yard dime down the right seam to tight end Dalton Kincaid gave the Bills a 14-0 lead less than three minutes later.

And midway through the second quarter, he authored the top play of Super Wild Card Weekend (which wasn’t all that super, honestly).

The situation: Third-and-8 from the Bills’ 48-yard line. The Steelers rushed six against the Bills’ six-man protection. Quickly, Allen decided to scramble.

Right tackle Spencer Brown approved.

“I’m glad he ran because I was getting beat around the edge,” Brown said. “I was all for that.”

Center Mitch Morse saw a blur.

“I saw him fly by me,” Morse said.

Right guard O’Cyrus Torrence was impressed.

“He ran it right at the side the pressure was coming from,” Torrence said. “That’s very rare.”

And left guard Connor McGovern was wary.

“I saw Josh scrambling and I was like, ‘OK, he got some yards,’ ” McGovern said. “But then he broke the tackle and it was, ‘Oh my.’ ”

Oh my, indeed.

Allen eyed the first-down marker before he tucked the football. Folks, the big fella now meant business. He did a not-so-pretty juke move at no defender in particular. He had a head of steam. He broke a tackle at the 38. He ran by cornerback Patrick Peterson. He flexed in the back of the end zone as the fans threw snow up in the air in celebration – and there was plenty of available snow to throw.

Slide? This is the playoffs. Plus, this far beyond the line of scrimmage, Allen was going against players who weren’t as big as him. Sliding might be suggested, but it isn’t heeded.

“I decided to try and find a lane,” Allen said. “I got 15-20 yards downfield and a lot of guys were screaming, ‘Slide!’ And I didn’t slide. And I scored. It worked out that time.”

Allen scrambling usually works out. His problem with turnovers are interceptions and fumbling while being sacked. Out of the pocket and down the field, he is a runaway bulldozer whose brakes are available but never used. Allen is the one who delivers the punishment all the while protecting possession.

And here’s the true and wild part: Were you really surprised by the longest carry of Allen’s career and the longest carry in Bills postseason history? We’ve seen it too many times over the years.

“It’s almost normal him making a crazy play like that almost every single game,” Knox said. “Sometimes, you can’t help but just sit back and be a fan. … It’s hard to tell a guy to slide when he’s doing stuff like that.”

Got two more games of that in you, Josh? That’s what it will take to beat the Chiefs and Baltimore/Houston to reach the Super Bowl.

It will take big plays. The Bills had plays of 52, 34, 29, 20 and 17 yards.

It will take time of possession. The Bills held the ball for 33:19.

It will take avoiding big mistakes like Monday when it had no turnovers and only their second penalty-free game offensively.

It’s on you, Allen and the offense. If the Bills make the Super Bowl, it will be because of you.
 

George Pickens says Steelers played 'Bills and the refs' in wild-card loss​

Pittsburgh Steelers receiver George Pickens was critical of the officiating after his team’s 31-17 loss to the Buffalo Bills in an AFC wild-card game Monday.

“You’re not going to win the game when you’re playing the refs and the Buffalo Bills,” Pickens told reporters in the Steelers’ locker room. “That’s what I really feel happened today, to be honest.”

One specific play drew Pickens' ire was with 4:53 remaining.

The Steelers had fourth-and-3 from their 32-yard line and trailed by 14 points.

Pickens ran an in-breaking route and appeared to be hooked by Bills cornerback Dane Jackson. No penalty was called and the Steelers’ comeback hopes were over.

“I can see contact down the field (not being called) – ‘go’ ball, me pushing, him pushing, no call,” Pickens said. “When you blatantly grab me (on fourth down). That was a pivotal down on that specific drive.”

The Bills were called for only two penalties in the game, a pass interference on cornerback Kaiir Elam and a roughing the passer by defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

Pickens finished with five catches for 50 yards.

Report Card: Bills win the ground battle against Steelers​

Grading the Buffalo Bills in their 31-17 victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday at Highmark Stadium …

Running game - A​

The Bills showed they’re built to win in January when the weather in Orchard Park sometimes favors a strong ground game, rushing 34 times for 179 yards and a touchdown. Of course, having a quarterback in Josh Allen who can pile up 74 yards on just eight carries amounts to a cheat code. Allen’s record-breaking, 52-yard touchdown run in the second quarter provided the winning points. Early in the game, he avoided what should have been a sack and scramble for an 8-yard gain – a classic example of what makes him so darn tough to defend. James Cook finished with 79 yards on 18 carries. It didn’t feel as if he had that many as the game was going on. Cook reminds me of Fred Jackson in the way he falls forward at the end of runs, turning 2-yard gains into 4 yards. The Bills leaned heavily on Ty Johnson down the stretch. He finished with eight carries for 26 yards. Seven of Cook’s eight carries came on the Bills’ final possession.

Passing game - B​

Allen was on at the start, going 5 of 5 for 56 yards on the opening drive, culminating with a 9-yard touchdown pass to tight end Dawson Knox. His first incompletion came on the first play of the second offensive series, when he missed Stefon Diggs. Nevertheless, Allen threw three touchdown passes, completing 21 of 30 passes for 203 yards. He connected with rookie Dalton Kincaid for a one-play touchdown drive that covered 29 yards in the first quarter. Second-year receiver Khalil Shakir put the game away with a 17-yard touchdown reception in the fourth quarter that was a thing of beauty. One area the passing game must improve next week is in doing a better job of sustaining drives. The Bills had three possessions that went three-and-out, and among those nine plays, they threw the ball seven times. Allen scrambled for his 8-yard run on one play and was sacked on the other. It’s not realistic to expect every drive to lead to points, but the offense will want to do a better job of staying on the field against the Chiefs, if for no other reason than to keep Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes off it.

Run defense - A​

The Bills jumped out to an early lead, which likely prevented the Steelers from running the ball as much as they would have liked. Still, the Bills did great work against the duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, limiting them to 75 yards on 20 attempts. Harris managed just 3.1 yards per carry after topping 100 yards in each of his past two games. His first four runs of the game went for 3 yards or less. A key sequence for the run defense came on the Steelers’ first drive of the second half. On first-and-10 from the Bills’ 23-yard line, DaQuan Jones and A.J. Klein stopped Harris for 1 yard. On second-and-9, Shaq Lawson and Kaiir Elam stopped Harris for no gain, setting up third-and-long. The Bills’ longest run allowed was a reverse by receiver George Pickens that gained 15 yards.

Pass defense - B​

Linebacker Terrel Bernard had a pair of pass deflections and recovered a fumble by Pickens in the first half. The four-man pass rush had its moments, getting some interior pressure early in the game, but losing momentum as time went on. Greg Rousseau had the only sack of Mason Rudolph. Elam, forced into action because of an injury to Christian Benford, had an interception of Rudolph in the red zone. That was a big play. Rudolph started just 1 of 4 for 16 yards on Pittsburgh’s first two drives. Dane Jackson had a team-leading three of the Bills’ eight passes defensed. The secondary did a nice job against Pickens, holding him to five catches for 50 yards on 11 targets.

Special teams - C-​

It was a night to forget for Tyler Bass. The Bills’ kicker had a 49-yard field goal attempt blocked in the second quarter that helped set up a Pittsburgh touchdown, then missed a 27-yard field goal in the fourth quarter that would have given the team a three-possession lead. Both kicks were toward the scoreboard end of the stadium, which appeared to be the tougher end to kick toward Monday. Punter Sam Martin deserves a lot of credit for gutting through a hamstring injury to have a strong game. He punted three times, placing two of them inside the Steelers’ 20-yard line, and averaging 44.0 net yards. Deonte Harty did a nice job to run up and make a fair catch in the first quarter, giving the Bills decent field position.

Coaching - B+​

Sean McDermott won a challenge for a second straight week when he correctly threw the flag on a pass that was ruled incomplete on the field, but was a catch and fumble by Pickens that led to a huge turnover. McDermott lost his second challenge when he tried to overturn a called fumble that went out of bounds. Replays appeared to give him a good chance to win that one, too, but the ruling on the field was upheld. Either way, it was a worthwhile challenge. The decision to try a 49-yard field goal in the second half in the conditions felt dubious at the time, and that proved to be the case when Bass’ kick was blocked. The entire coaching staff deserves credit for having as many backups ready to play as were needed. The Bills played a very disciplined game, getting penalized just twice for a loss of 24 yards.
 

Plays that shaped the game: Khalil Shakir TD helps clinch Bills win over Steelers​

Khalil Shakir is a mere 23 years old and might have a decade of NFL games in his future.
Yet no matter how long the Buffalo Bills’ receiver plays, his big touchdown Monday night surely will rank among his career highlights.

Here’s a closer look at key plays that shaped the Bills’ 31-17 wild-card playoff victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Great balance​

What made Shakir’s 17-yard catch and run for a touchdown so great was he beat the Steelers’ best defensive player, star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.
With the Bills clinging to a 24-17 lead and facing a second-and-9 situation, Josh Allen recognized a Steelers blitz and showed a quick trigger in throwing to Shakir on a shallow crossing route at the 15.

Fitzpatrick closed fast and hard and wrapped both arms around the Bills’ receiver. But Shakir bent forward and spun out of the tackle.

“Just a shallow cross,” Shakir said. “My job is to get across the field and show eyes if they do bring any sort of blitz. Josh put it right on me. I don’t know. Dude hit me and I was able to stay up and make a play from there.”

Shakir reversed field to the right, made a great cut inside linebacker Mykal Walker and outran linebacker Myles Jack and defensive tackle Cam Heyward to the end zone.
How did Shakir manage to keep his feet after the Fitzpatrick hit?

“I don’t know,” he said. “We practice a ball-security drill once a week. It’s called stumble bump or something. Hold the ball and put your hand down and someone’s punching at the ball. I guess repetition and doing what you practice shows up in games.”

The TD gave the Bills a 14-point edge with 6:27 left.

“He’s been playing his tail off,” said tight end Dawson Knox of Shakir. “It seems like it was almost impossible to bring him down. I had a little under route ao I was coming into where he had the ball, and there were two or three guys on him. He just refused to go down.”

The 17-Wheeler TD​

Damontae Kazee felt the brunt of “the Josh Allen Experience” on the Bills’ quarterback’s 52-yard touchdown scramble in the second quarter.

The Steelers brought a six-man blitz on a third-and-7 play. Running back Latavius Murray picked up blitzing linebacker Myles Jack.

That allowed Allen to step up in the pocket and break free. Kazee, the deep safety, closed on Allen and had a clean shot at the 38. Most quarterbacks would have slid at that point. Allen ran through him and cruised into the end zone to give the Bills a 21-0 lead.

“Plays like that, he’s just a freak of nature,” Shakir said.

Safety Micah Hyde admitted he was hollering on the sideline for Allen to slide.

“Yes I was,” Hyde said. “When he got to the sideline, I said, ‘Hey man, you need to slide.’ He looked at me like I was crazy. That’s JA. He’s able – how big he is, he’s actually really elusive.”

Spread attack​

The Bills went to an empty backfield formation and went for the jugular on the first play after the first turnover of the game.

The Steelers were in a two-deep zone coverage, and tight end Dalton Kincaid ran straight up the middle of the field against a linebacker, Jack. It was no contest. Kincaid blew past Jack and caught the pass from Allen at the 4-yard line, splitting the safeties. Easy touchdown.

“I saw the safeties go apart, and the mike backer was dropping in Tampa 2,” Kincaid said, referring to a two-deep coverage where the middle linebacker runs to the deep middle. “That’s exactly how we had it schemed up this week in practice. A.J. Klein actually was running the scout team as the backer for this week. He was like, it was cool to see it translate over.”

It was no surprise the Bills attacked the Steelers’ linebackers. Starters Cole Holcomb and Kwon Alexander both went on injured reserve in the middle of the season. Jack, 28, announced his retirement in August after being released by the Eagles. The Steelers signed him on Nov. 20. He was elevated off the practice squad for Monday’s game.

Blitz beater​

The Bills’ first touchdown came when Allen beat a blitz and hit Knox for a 9-yard touchdown pass.

The Steelers had just a single safety, Eric Rowe, in the middle of the field, and Knox was lined up next to the left tackle. James Cook sprinted to the left flat, which drew the attention of cornerback Patrick Peterson on that side of the field. That left Rowe all alone to chase Knox to the left corner of the end zone. He didn’t come close.

“It was a simple corner route,” Knox said. “The safety came over to match me. Josh put it on the money. The corner flew out with the running back. It was a very simple flag route. I was surprised it was that open. ... I was basically just running away from him.”

Key turnover​

The Steelers looked like they were going to cut into a 14-0 Bills lead in the second quarter when they marched 89 yards in 10 plays to the Buffalo 3.
Quarterback Mason Rudolph had picked on cornerback Kaiir Elam on a second-down play from the 11, throwing for Diontae Johnson near the goal line. The pass was off target but Elam needlessly interfered and was flagged for a penalty.

Rudolph went back to Johnson two plays later on a quick out on the left sideline. But Elam stayed tight to Johnson’s hip and looked up at the last second as the ball arrived. He made the catch in front of the receiver and before going out of bounds.

Observations: Bills take next-man-up mentality to the next level in win over Steelers​

Even the punter got hurt.

That’s not to minimize the position that Sam Martin plays for the Buffalo Bills, but rather to properly put into perspective just how badly the injury bug bit the team during a 31-17 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday in an AFC wild-card playoff game at Highmark Stadium.

The Bills will need to find some healing crystals with the Kansas City Chiefs coming to town for a divisional-round game at 6:30 p.m. Sunday. Not surprisingly, head coach Sean McDermott didn’t have many updates immediately following his team’s win, but here’s a rundown of who went down.
  • Second-year cornerback Christian Benford appeared to suffer a knee injury on a first-quarter catch by Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth. Benford did not return and was replaced by Kaiir Elam.
  • Second-year linebacker Baylon Spector suffered a back injury in the first quarter and did not return. He was replaced by A.J. Klein. Spector was in the starting lineup because the Bills were without both Matt Milano, who is on injured reserve, and Tyrel Dodson, who did not play because of a shoulder injury suffered in Week 18 against Miami.
  • Martin suffered a left hamstring injury chasing the blocked 49-yard field goal attempt by Bills kicker Tyler Bass late in the first half. Martin returned to punt in the second half, but clearly wasn’t 100%.
  • Wide receiver Stefon Diggs (undisclosed) was injured on his 5-yard catch late in the second quarter when he was tackled by safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Diggs was able to jog to the sideline and returned to the game.
  • Second-year linebacker Terrell Bernard (right ankle) was carted off the field with 13:10 left in the third quarter on a tackle of Steelers receiver Diontae Johnson. Bernard did not return. A league source told The Buffalo News after the game that X-rays on Bernard’s ankle were negative, but that he will have an MRI exam Tuesday. Klein moved over to replace Bernard, with rookie Dorian Williams then coming into the game.
  • Left guard Connor McGovern (ribs) was shaken up on a James Cook 1-yard run with 4:10 left in the third quarter. He missed one play.
  • Cornerback Taron Johnson (head) was in the medical tent as the fourth quarter started to be evaluated, replaced as the Bills’ nickel by Cam Lewis. He did not return.
That’s a long list with the Bills having a short week to prepare.

“It’s tough to see your brother go down, but you know they want the best for the team,” Williams said. “If they can’t go, they want next up, so you’ve got to come in, you’ve got to be able to produce, you’ve got to be able to help the team. There shouldn’t be no dropoff.”

Against the Steelers, that proved to be the case. Klein finished with a team-leading 10 tackles. Williams was next with seven. Elam had five tackles and a big interception.

“It’s football,” said defensive end Leonard Floyd. “You can’t really stop injuries, you’ve just got to keep fighting through it and playing through it. We did a good job as a team, not letting it bring us down. We put the next guy in and he came out and played great. It shows how deep of a team we’ve got. Next-man-up mentality.”

While every injury is impactful in its own way, losing Bernard in the third quarter looked to be the worst-case scenario. He has been a revelation in his second season, coming into the season as a virtual unknown and blossoming into one of the team’s best defenders.

Before getting Hurt, Bernard had a dynamite first half, with two passes defensed and a fumble recovery.

“His play speaks for itself, and the year that he’s had as a young player stepping in with basically no experience and leading our defense, not only being productive, but also the leadership aspect of the job at the middle linebacker position,” McDermott said. “He does a lot for our defense.”

You can bet on one thing: Even if Bernard isn’t ready to go against the Chiefs, the Bills won’t make any excuses.

“I think everybody in the locker room understands the type of game that we play and what comes with it. It sucks, though,” quarterback Josh Allen said of the injuries. “When you got guys that are playing at such a high level, guys that are young, that are figuring things out and having injuries. We got to figure it out. … Guys are going to step up and, yeah, it takes everybody to win.”

The Bills advanced to the divisional round of the postseason for the fourth straight year. The Bills and Chiefs will meet for the third time in that span. It will be the first road playoff game in Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ career, not counting Super Bowls at neutral sites.

“That’s the kind of game we want, man,” Floyd said. “Playing against one of the top quarterbacks in the league in the playoffs when it all matters. It’s the type of game we look forward to. I look forward to us coming out and playing great on defense.”

2. Khalil Shakir stayed hot. The Bills didn’t put the game away until Shakir made a fantastic individual effort to score on a 17-yard reception with 6:27 left in the fourth quarter. According to NFL NextGen Stats, he had 0.7% chance of scoring when he caught the ball.
The touchdown continued a hot streak for the second-year veteran, who now has 16 catches on 16 targets for 220 yards over his past four games.

“He’s been fantastic and it’s not a secret anymore. Teams are starting to game plan for him,” Allen said. “The kid just works hard. He doesn’t ever complain about anything. He’s always where he’s supposed to be. You watch him when he’s not getting the ball, he’s following the ball, he’s getting downfield. He’s trying to make a block. He plays football the right way. When you do that, and you combine that with his physical talents, he’s very shifty, he’s very quick, his hands are fantastic. You put yourself in good positions to have success and he’s been making the most out of it. It’s been fun to see him grow as a young player.”

On Sunday night, Rams receiver Paku Nacua set an NFL record with nine catches for 181 yards and a touchdown. Nacua, like Shakir, was a fifth-round draft pick. Nacua fell in the draft because he didn’t test great. McDermott drew a comparison to Shakir in that way.

“If you measure Khalil by playing the game of football, I think he’s a pretty, pretty special player and person, for that matter,” McDermott said. “I think one feeds the other, so I think more people need to start measuring some of those things, as opposed to some of the measurables in a true football player.”

3. Both tight ends contributed. Dalton Kincaid, the team’s first-round draft pick, finished with a team-leading 59 receiving yards that included a 29-yard touchdown catch in the first quarter. Kincaid was targeted six times. Dawson Knox also came through with a 9-yard touchdown pass from Allen in the first quarter to open the scoring. It was Knox’s sixth career postseason touchdown, which ties him for second on the franchise’s all-time list with James Lofton and Gabe Davis, three behind Andre Reed with nine.

According to CBS Sports, the Bills became the first team in NFL playoff history to have two tight ends catch touchdown passes in the first quarter of a game. Neither will have much time to celebrate.

“We have the 24-hour rule, but when it’s a short week, it’s got to be quicker than that,” Knox said. “We’ll be getting in the training room even tonight to take care of our bodies. … We’ll be turning the page pretty quick.”

4. Tyrel Dodson and Rasul Douglas couldn’t go. The Bills ruled out their starting linebacker and cornerback 90 minutes before kickoff. Both players were listed as questionable on the final injury report. Dodson was a limited participant at practice Friday. Douglas, meanwhile, was unable to practice all week after hurting his knee against Miami. They joined wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee) and safety Taylor Rapp (calf), who were previously ruled out after also getting hurt against Miami. With Davis out, the Bills called receiver Andy Isabella up from the practice squad, and he was in the lineup against the Steelers. Isabella returned one kickoff for 19 yards and was targeted once in the passing game, but the pass fell incomplete.

5. Linval Joseph returned to the lineup. Facing a physical team that surely wanted to run the ball, the Bills activated Joseph for the first time since Week 16 against the Chargers. Joseph, 6-foot-4 and 329 pounds, was active in place of Poona Ford. Joseph teamed up with Ed Oliver to stop Steelers running back Najee Harris for a loss of 1 yard on a first-and-goal play from the Bills’ 3-yard line in the second quarter, setting up Elam’s interception on the next play.

The Bills’ other inactive players were offensive lineman Alec Anderson and defensive end Kingsley Jonathan.
 

How It Happened: Top plays, standout players in Bills' wild-card win over Pittsburgh​

Injuries on defense and a lull on offense turned a Buffalo Bills rout into a one-possession game for a moment Monday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

But just for a moment.

Receiver Khalil Shakir’s 17-yard run and catch with 6:27 remaining gave the Bills needed breathing room in an eventual 31-17, AFC wild-card win over the Steelers at Highmark Stadium.

The Bills never trailed in rolling to their sixth consecutive win bridging the regular season and playoffs and they advanced to the postseason’s divisional round for the fourth straight year.

Here is a recap of the Steelers-Bills game:

Top plays​

  • The Bills’ offense went right to work, scoring a touchdown on their opening possession for the fourth time in 18 games this season. They had completions of 20 (catch by tight end Dalton Kincaid), 10 (by receiver Stefon Diggs) and 12 (by Diggs) yards and a 12-yard rush by tailback James Cook. On second down from the Steelers’ 9, tight end Dawson Knox started on the left side of the line and ran a corner route uncovered for the touchdown (7:02, first quarter).
  • On Pittsburgh’s third possession, receiver George Pickens caught a pass in the right flat, but fumbled after an 8-yard gain. Linebacker Terrel Bernard, who later left with an ankle injury, recovered at the 29 after a successful replay challenge. One play was all the Bills needed. Kincaid started from the inside of a trips right look and ran straight down the seam for the touchdown catch (14-0, 4:10, first quarter).
  • A span of five snaps summed up the two-year Bills career of cornerback Kaiir Elam. First play: Missed a tackle to allow Pittsburgh tight end Pat Freiermuth convert a third-and-9. Third play: Elam was called for a pass interference penalty (9 yards). Fifth play: Elam intercepted quarterback Mason Rudolph in the end zone.
  • After Elam’s interception, the Bills faced a third-and-7 at their 48. Against a five-man pass rush, Josh Allen scrambled to take advantage of man coverage (plenty of room to roam). He broke a tackle at the Steelers’ 35 on his way to a 52-yard touchdown to make it 21-0 (7:01, second quarter). It was the longest carry in Bills postseason history.
  • A triple whammy of bad for the Bills with 2:14 left in the first half. Whammy No. 1: Bills kicker Tyler Bass’ 49-yard field goal attempt was blocked. Whammy No. 2: Punter/holder Sam Martin sustained a left hamstring injury in chase of the football (he did return). Whammy No. 3: The Steelers made it 21-7 before halftime on receiver Diontae Johnson’s 10-yard touchdown catch (1:39, second quarter).
  • Allen-to-Diggs magic helped set up a Bass 45-yard field goal with 1:32 left in the third quarter (24-10 lead). On third-and-9, Allen scrambled near the right sideline before throwing back to Diggs for a 13-yard gain.
  • Minus nickel back Taron Johnson (head), the Bills were forced to use safety Cam Lewis in coverage and Pittsburgh took advantage. The Steelers capped a 12-play, 75-yard drive with a 7-yard touchdown pass to receiver Calvin Austin to cut the Bills’ lead to 24-17 (10:32, fourth quarter).
  • The Bills needed a drive that would use some clock and end as a touchdown. Check and check. The Bills didn’t face a third down on a seven-play march, helped by 20 yards of penalties on Pittsburgh linebacker Myles Jack. Receiver Khalil Shakir capped it with a 17-yard touchdown in which he broke tackle attempts by safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and defensive lineman Cameron Heyward to make it 31-17 (6:27, fourth).

Standout players​

QB Josh Allen. Allen did a bunch of everything as usual, rushing for one touchdown and throwing for three more and playing turnover-free. Allen finished 21-for-30 passing for 203 yards and rushed eight times for 74 yards.

Bills tight ends. Dawson Knox and then Dalton Kincaid caught first-quarter touchdown passes to stake the Bills to a 14-0 lead. It marked the first time in NFL postseason history that two tight ends had caught first-quarter touchdown passes for the same team.

CB Kaiir Elam. In his first game action since Week 7 at New England, Elam filled in for Christian Benford (knee) and had a first-half interception.

RB James Cook. His long carry was only 12 yards, but Cook grinded out 79 total yards on 18 carries.

LB A.J. Klein. From practice squad addition last week to leading tackler on Monday (11 stops).

Numbers of note​

4: Degrees of Monday’s game-time wind-chill factor.

52: Distance of Bills quarterback Allen’s second-quarter touchdown, the longest carry in Buffalo postseason history and the longest of Allen’s career (regular season/playoffs).

3: Times this season the Bills have gone for it on fourth down in their territory; Allen converted a fourth-and-1 from his 45 in the third quarter.

1: Sack for Bills defensive end Greg Rousseau, his first solo sack since Week 10 against Denver.

Injuries​

CB Benford (knee) appeared to be injured on a first-quarter catch by Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth. Benford did not return and was replaced by Kaiir Elam.

LB Baylon Spector (back) was injured in the first quarter and did not return, replaced first by A.J. Klein and then Dorian Williams.

P Martin (left hamstring) was injured chasing the blocked 49-yard field goal attempt by Bills kicker Tyler Bass late in the first half. Martin returned to punt in the second half.

WR Diggs (undisclosed) was injured on his five-yard catch late in the second quarter when he was tackled by safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. Diggs returned to the game.

LB Terrell Bernard (right ankle) was carted off the field with 13:10 left in the third quarter on a tackle attempt and did not return. Klein moved over to replace Bernard.

LG Connor McGovern (ribs) was shaken up on a James Cook 1-yard run with 4:10 left in the third quarter. He missed one play.

CB Taron Johnson (head) was in the medical tent as the fourth quarter started to be evaluated, replaced as the Bills’ nickel by Cam Lewis. He did not return.

Up next​

The Bills (12-6) will meet up with an old rival Sunday at 6:30 when they host the Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) in an AFC divisional round game.

When Buffalo Bills play in divisional round​

With the Buffalo Bills' victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday, they will host the Kansas City Chiefs at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday.

That is the latest of the four games scheduled for Divisional Weekend and will air on CBS.

Entering Monday's wild-card doubleheader of Bills-Steelers and Philadelphia-Tampa Bay, the only matchup set was Green Bay will visit San Francisco in the late game Saturday, with an 8 p.m. kickoff on Fox.

Houston will visit Baltimore at 4:30 p.m. Saturday on ABC.

The early game Sunday features the Philadelphia-Tampa Bay winner at Detroit at 3 p.m. on NBC.

Saturday, Jan. 20​

4:30 p.m.: Houston at Baltimore (ESPN)

8 p.m.: Green Bay at San Francisco (Fox)

Sunday, Jan. 21​

3 p.m.: Philadelphia/Tampa Bay at Detroit (NBC)

6:30 p.m.: Kansas City at Bills (CBS).
 
Balls
Josh Allen. The man, the myth, the legend. Solid game from our lord and savior. That TD run was electric.
Shakir. As I've been saying for the past many weeks. The real WR2
Kincaid. Baller, beast.
OL. Josh was barely pressured and the run game was decent.
Ed Oliver. All over the Pitt backfield. What a beast of a player.
Benford. Caused a fumble.
AJ Klein. Fresh off the couch to lead the team in tackles
Diggs. Once again sneaky good. Not a lot of yard but he gets the ball rollin'


Goats
Bass. Been saying it for a long time. I don't trust him. We better not need a game winning FG from a 45+. He ain't making it.
McD and the D during that period when they scored on 3 straight drives. Rudolph was looking legit, they scored with ease, the tide was turning. Pathetic considering it was against one of the worst offenses known to men in the past 25 years.
ST. The average fest continues. What the fuck happened on that fg? Like 5 people could've blocked it. Turned the game around for them. Gave them life.
Knox. Dropsies yet again.
Football gods. We cant have nice things. Injuries galore as usual. They better all be short term. If we go light vs the Chiefs we stand no chance.
Refs. Carl Cheffers is garbage. Look up my posts over the years on him. This ain't a one game thing. I hate his guts. What a fucking moron on that challenge. It was even clearer than the 1st one.
 
Balls:

Josh
Diggs
Cook
D
McDermott

Goats:
Refs
strength and conditioning team: holy shit from 2017 to 2021 only two major injuries (Josh and Tre), then these past two years its been a drought era mash situation where only good coaching at least on the positional level and depth stepping up has kept them from losing
 
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