Super Wild Card: Steel Curtain Predictions - Merged all Steelers Threads

[HipKat]

Bills-Steelers thoughts: Predictions, weather and the Josh Allen advantage

The weather is the big storyline surrounding Monday's wild-card game. How will each team deal with the conditions?

theathletic.com

After ending the regular season on a five-game winning streak, the Buffalo Bills have set themselves up with the favorable position of hosting their opening postseason game, doing so against the worst qualifying team by record of the conference. The No. 2 Bills will take on the No. 7 Pittsburgh Steelers, and if successful, Buffalo hosts another playoff game next weekend.

But in all likelihood, Sunday won’t be routine. Weather forecasters predict snow and wind both the evening leading up to the game and during the game.

What does the matchup look like in general, and how will weather impact things for the Bills and Steelers? Here are several thoughts on the game, along with a prediction.

Pros and cons of bad weather defense vs. the Steelers​

The Steelers come into the game with the reputation of being a run-heavy offense, and they’ve found a lot of success doing so since firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada in late November. So whenever there is potential for a bad weather game and limited possessions, it could level the playing field a bit for the team with less talent if it can run the football proficiently. The Steelers fit that mold, which could make for a closer score than it would be in normal weather conditions. The Steelers’ offensive line plays with power and looks to win matchups through physicality, something Bills coach Sean McDermott is prepping his team for. That style of run-blocking can be an advantage in poor weather conditions, and having the physical running back to exploit it like Najee Harris, it all builds the case for the Steelers on Sunday. And if that can help them control the time of possession, it creates fewer opportunities for the Bills to put up points. That should rightfully have the Bills a bit concerned heading into the game, but all of that is the worst-case scenario and not looking at the entire picture.

Although the Steelers are a good rushing unit, they also are starting a quarterback who began the year as their third option. Mason Rudolph has helped the Steelers put up more points, but in a bad weather game just last week, Rudolph’s passing limitations really stood out. He’s more of a rhythmic short-to-intermediate thrower than someone who pushes the ball downfield. Without the full confidence in having him be a major piece of their offensive outlook, that can actually help the Bills’ defensive structure. It will be a chore to limit the Steelers ground game in potential bad weather conditions, though it would be far more difficult to do so if Rudolph were a major threat to gouge their defense through the air. That could allow the Bills to comfortably bring Jordan Poyer down a bit farther into the box and go all in on limiting the Steelers running game.

The Bills defensive line will play a major role in keeping the second-level defenders clean from blocks, and we could see high snap percentages from defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones, along with run stuffing defensive ends Greg Rousseau and Shaq Lawson. Because the Steelers thrive most between the tackles, that will at least condense the area enough to try and help limit the Steelers’ best means of moving the ball. Between the pros and cons, it will likely meet somewhere in the middle, but the Bills’ talent on defense in key spots could give them the advantage to win on these run-stuffing downs more often than not.

The Josh Allen advantage​

In the McDermott era, there have been two substantial weather games of note. There was the snow game against the Indianapolis Colts in 2017 when it went from clear in the parking lots in the morning to a band of snow dumping down on all the players midgame along with wind. Then, there was the windy affair against the New England Patriots in 2021, which impacted offensive approaches. In the Colts game, the Bills ran the ball 51 times and passed it only 16 — a pass attempt rate of 23.9 percent. Against the Patriots, the Bills ran the ball only 25 times to 30 passing attempts, a pass attempt rate of 54.6 percent.

The difference between those two games? Josh Allen’s presence in the starting lineup. Back when the Bills were scouting quarterbacks ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft, finding someone who could play through Buffalo’s conditions when they presented themselves was a piece of their evaluation that Allen passed with flying colors. So, with potential for bad weather, it at least keeps the door open to the Bills still maintaining their passing identity Sunday.

“Just because Josh has those qualities, you never really know what it’s going to look like on Sunday at 1 o’clock. Or at 2 o’clock. Or at 3 o’clock,” McDermott said Friday. “But having that ability to at least entertain that option, that doesn’t always happen. In the case of offensive football overall, most people would say, ‘We don’t have the option.’ So at least we have the option, at least at this point, to entertain that.”

Conversely, the Steelers will start Rudolph, who likely pushes them toward being far more one-dimensional than the Bills with Allen. Now, if the game gets close to 50 to 60 mph winds, which is what’s projected on the Saturday evening before the game, that cuts out everyone’s ability to throw. But the current forecast has the winds slowing down closer to kickoff, which would open up the opportunity for the Bills to throw more capably. But even without throwing, Allen just dropping back to pass could be an advantage with how dangerous he can be as a scrambler in a setting like this one. Allen’s mobility will be a critical component to moving the ball in the elements Sunday to help the ground game be as effective as it has been during the Bills’ five-game winning streak.

Why Tyrel Dodson’s availability could be huge​

When Thursday’s practice began, it was a notable absence for the Bills to be without starting outside linebacker Tyrel Dodson, especially after he was a limited participant at Wednesday’s walk-through. His absence cast doubt on whether he could play Sunday. But after McDermott got an encouraging update on Dodson on Friday, the linebacker was back on the practice field. It’s a notable improvement heading into the matchup, and Dodson’s presence could be especially important for this opponent with these potential weather conditions.

Dodson can be a flawed defender in coverage, but as a run defender, he can be an integral piece to the Bills’ defensive puzzle. In a setting that could lead to the Steelers running the ball a large percentage of the game, Dodson, who loves to get downhill to plug a rushing lane, could do so unabashedly. Dodson’s lack of speed wouldn’t be a massive concern, either, because of how the Steelers like to rush between the tackles and how much the weather conditions could neutralize some of the speed to the outside. Replacing Baylon Spector’s inexperience with the defined quality of Dodson’s run-stuffing prowess could give the Bills a big advantage in dealing with the Steelers’ rushing attack. If he plays and is able to make stops at or behind the line of scrimmage, that will go a long way toward the Bills coming away with a win.

Gabe Davis, Taylor Rapp and maybe Rasul Douglas — how big of a loss for this matchup?​

Although the Bills entered the Miami Dolphins game completely healthy, they left with four injuries to key contributors. Dodson was one of them, but the list also includes starting wide receiver Gabe Davis, starting cornerback Rasul Douglas and dime safety Taylor Rapp. Davis and Rapp have been ruled out, with Douglas earning the questionable tag despite not practicing at all during the week.

In the case of Douglas and Rapp, should the weather conditions be as poor as expected, it does lessen the impact of not having either of those players. While Douglas is a good tackler and a bigger-bodied cornerback, backup Dane Jackson has proved to be a solid run defender and tackler. It’s been the coverage piece that plagues Jackson the most. With Rapp, should the Steelers run the ball as much as we’d expect, that would lessen the need for Rapp to enter the game as a third safety.

Unfortunately for the Bills, Davis would have been a valuable piece of their offense for this kind of game setting that’s likely to come along. Davis is an excellent blocker for his position and has proved to be an excellent improvisational route runner when plays break down in the pocket. Those two skills would help the Bills a great deal in consistently moving the ball Sunday, but they’ll need to rely on the combination of Trent Sherfield, Khalil Shakir or the Bills going into 12 personnel to have the best path to offensive success.

Projected practice squad elevations: RB Leonard Fournette, WR Andy Isabella

Projected inactives: RB Latavius Murray, WR Gabe Davis, OL Alec Anderson, DE Kingsley Jonathan, DT Poona Ford, CB Rasul Douglas, S Taylor Rapp

Prediction: Bills 20, Steelers 9​

The weather will be the big story up to and through kickoff (should it remain at 1 p.m. Sunday), and it could be a legitimate factor in the path to victory. The Steelers have the reputation for being able to run the ball, though the Bills’ offensive line doesn’t get as much credit as it deserves for having an excellent season with good run blockers in left tackle Dion Dawkins, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown. With running ability with their backs, Allen utilized as a rusher and having the option to be two-dimensional with Allen as a passer, I think the Bills come away victorious despite the weather conditions. It likely will be a tighter game than many would expect in a normal weather game, but the Bills have shown the ability to win in several ways during their winning streak. That should give them an edge in learning how to deal with another set of circumstances. I think the Bills move the ball well enough on three or four drives to give themselves the scoring edge they need over what could be a one-dimensional Steelers offense.

 

[HipKat]

Bills-Steelers game to remain Monday: N.Y. governor

The new kickoff time for the Steelers-Bills wild-card game is 4:30 p.m. ET Monday.

theathletic.com

The Buffalo Bills versus Pittsburgh Steelers wild-card game has been moved to Monday due to a winter storm in the Western New York area, the Bills announced Saturday. The game — originally scheduled for 1 p.m. ET Sunday — has a new kickoff time of 4:30 p.m. ET Monday at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y.

“The decision to move the game to Monday was made in consultation with New York Governor Kathy Hochul in the best interest of public safety, and with the Buffalo Bills and the Pittsburgh Steelers, as the region prepares for the storm,” the Bills said in a statement.

On Friday, the NFL was monitoring the status of this game due to the incoming winter storm. Hochul declared a state of emergency Friday in several Western New York counties due to the strong winds, freezing temperatures and lake-effect snow starting Saturday. The National Weather Service issued a “winter storm watch” for the area over the weekend and a foot of snow is expected to fall in the area Saturday evening.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1746222441498640880

“When you get in those snow bands, it’s zero visibility, and the snow’s accumulating a couple of inches in an hour, then traveling becomes extremely difficult, dangerous, if not impossible, so there are gonna be problems in western New York,” Tom Kines, a senior meteorologist for AccuWeather, said.

The Bills have moved games due to snow in the past. In 2014, Buffalo’s matchup against the New York Jets was moved to Detroit’s Ford Field due to severe weather.

The Steelers (10-7) head into Monday’s matchup riding a three-game winning streak while the Bills (11-6) are also riding a hot streak — winners of their last five games and six of their last seven.

 

[SpikedLemonade]

Is it Noon or 4:00 PM?

 

[HipKat]

Is it Noon or 4:00 PM?

4:30 EDT

 

[SpikedLemonade]

4:30 EDT

Daryls was wrong again in the Shout Box.

Mother Fuckin’ Breaking News Bastard.

 

[HipKat]

Your guide to Buffalo Bills vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Buffalo Bills take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4:30 p.m. today in an AFC wild-card playoff game. Catch up on all of our pregame coverage here.

buffalonews.com

The Buffalo Bills take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at 4:30 p.m. today in an AFC wild-card playoff game. Catch up on all of our pregame coverage here.

With snow still falling, Bills call on fans to help dig out stadium for playoff game vs. Steelers​

BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) — Logan Eschrich came to Buffalo to witness the snowstorm, and he stayed for the shoveling on Sunday.

Once the professional storm chaser saw the Buffalo Bills invite fans to help dig out a snow-filled Highmark Stadium for their delayed playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, now scheduled for Monday, Eschrich couldn’t resist.

Sniffling and shivering from the cold, Eschrich detailed the seemingly impossible task he and the estimated 85-person shovel crew faced while being compensated $20 an hour. Winds whipped at 30 mph (48 kph), and snow was falling at a rate of 2 inches (5 centimeters) per hour at what was supposed to be the game’s 1 p.m. EST kickoff, which has been pushed back to Monday at 4:30 p.m.

“It would have been absolutely impossible (to play). We could barely see the next row down from us. And unfortunately, it’s still that way,” Eschrich told The Associated Press by phone in the mid-afternoon. “We made progress shoveling, but not much at all.”

He said bleacher seats were entirely buried by snow, adding that it was treacherous to travel the mere two blocks to the stadium from where he camped overnight.

“I’m very happy they put the travel ban into effect,” said Eschrich, who works for Live Storms Media, and made the 16-hour trip north from Alabama, where he had planned to get video of tornadoes. “Nobody should be out here.”

The Buffalo region, which includes the Bills' home in Orchard Park, was mostly at a standstill, with a travel ban in place due to a dangerous lake-effect storm that began on Saturday and was expected to last through Sunday night.

The storm was projected to dump up between 1 and 3 feet of snow, with the heaviest accumulation around Orchard Park.

With the storm's brunt expected to wane by Sunday night, the National Weather Service’s forecast for Monday called for a chance of snow showers in the morning and a high of 19 degrees Fahrenheit (minus-7 Celsius), but with strong wind making it feel like minus-5 (minus-21).

On Sunday, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul said she expected the game to kick off as scheduled, with the end of the storm allowing time for roads and the stadium to be cleared of snow. A day earlier, Hochul and the NFL cited public safety concerns as the reason to push the game back to Monday.

Bills players and staff spent Sunday at home. The Steelers arrived Sunday afternoon with travel restrictions having been lifted at Buffalo Niagara International Airport and northern parts of Erie County.

Former Bills center Eric Wood recalled his first time experiencing a lake-effect storm in Buffalo in November 2014, which has since been dubbed “Snowvember.” The storm dumped nearly 7 feet (2.1 meters) of snow on Orchard Park over a four-day stretch and led to Buffalo's home game against the New York Jets being moved to Detroit.

Wood was among seven Bills players in his neighborhood who had to be picked up by snowmobile and transported to the team’s facility before being bused to the airport.

“The whiteout conditions are like nothing I had ever experienced,” said Wood, who's from Cincinnati. “Until you experience this snow and understand its effect, it’s hard to appreciate what can truly happen in such a short amount of time, and often without notice.”

Wood’s next experience with lake-effect snow happened in December 2017, when a storm hit an hour before kickoff and caused whiteout conditions inside the stadium during a game against Indianapolis. Stadium crews were unable to keep up with the falling snow, using blowers to uncover the yard lines.

Their field was so blanketed by snow that Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri lost his footing and missed a 43-yard field-goal attempt as time expired, and Buffalo won 13-7 in overtime on LeSean McCoy’s 21-yard touchdown run. Bills players celebrated by making snow angels and throwing snowballs.

“Fans had a ton of fun watching us slip and slide over the field, but it wasn’t always fun to play in, not being able to move, and you’re freezing and all that,” Wood recalled with a laugh.

Today, it’s a cherished memory for Wood, in part because the win helped the Bills snap a 17-season playoff drought.

Former Bills special teams star Steve Tasker said the wintry conditions usually favor the home team.

“It's not the being able to practice in the bad stuff that makes you ready to play on days like that, it’s living in it that makes you ready,” Tasker said. “Those guys get off the plane from say, Miami or Houston, and it just slaps you in the face.”

Tasker, however, noted the Steelers are accustomed to playing in the cold, which should even out any advantages on Monday.

One thing is certain for Tasker who, like Wood, is part of the Bills' radio broadcast team. Fun as it was playing in the elements, he’s going to enjoy his spot in the warm comfort of the radio booth.

“I’m very happy where I’m at,” Tasker said, laughing. “I’m not going to trade it for anything.”

NOTES: With WR Gabe Davis (knee) ruled out, and LB Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) listed as questionable, the Bills elevated WR Andy Isabella and LB A.J. Klein from their practice squad

Pittsburgh Steelers arrive for Monday's playoff game against Buffalo Bills​

The Pittsburgh Steelers arrived in the Buffalo area on Sunday afternoon in advance of Monday's AFC wild-card game against the Bills at Highmark Stadium.

A Steelers spokesman said Saturday that the team planned to move its usual Saturday routine to Sunday when the game was moved to Monday. The team held a walk-through in Pittsburgh and then traveled to Buffalo beginning at around 3:30 p.m. and arrived around 5 p.m.

The more severe weather was south of the airport by Sunday afternoon.

Game time Monday is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. (CBS)

On Sunday night, Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz said that those heading to the stadium to shovel out the seating area and concourses were exempt from a travel ban.

Gov. Kathy Hochul said during a Sunday news conference that conditions for travel to the game will be "very, very cold," but said conditions "won't be life threatening, either."

Hochul and state officials had advocated for the game to be postponed by a day, rather than potentially be moved to another site.

As was apparent on what would have been game time Sunday, snow and heavy winds would have made it largely impossible to play.

"At game time on Monday, here's what we expect, the weather conditions will be very cold," Hochul said. "They'll be in the teens, and even wind-chill factors as low as zero maybe to 9 degrees. But this with will be without the danger of the winds and the blinding snow and the hazardous traffic conditions for those as they travel to the stadium or leaving based on current predictions.

"So that is a better dynamic – a far better dynamic – than we would have had today. I'm not saying it's going to be pleasant, but conditions won't be life-threatening, either."

Ryan O'Halloran: Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice's continued emergence poses problem for next opponent​

Ten things about the first two AFC playoff games, Steelers-Bills and coaching searches:
1. Rice’s emergence. For years, after quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Buffalo Bills’ main priority against Kansas City was receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. Well, Hill is in Miami and Kelce had two more drops Saturday night against Miami.

Enter rookie receiver Rashee Rice.

The seventh receiver drafted, Rice caught eight passes for 130 yards and one touchdown in the 26-7 win over the Dolphins.

If the Bills beat Pittsburgh on Monday, they will host the Chiefs and are familiar with Rice. He had seven catches for 72 yards (one touchdown) in the Bills’ Week 14 win at Arrowhead.

Against the Dolphins, the average “air” yards on Rice’s eight catches was 6.1 yards so he was doing great post-catch work. The health of Bills cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee), who is questionable to play Monday after not practicing all last week, would be key in a Chiefs-Bills game.

2. Hitting the road ... maybe. Career playoff starts for Mahomes: Fifteen.

Career true road playoff games for Mahomes. Zero.

It is a remarkable nod to the Chiefs’ consistency/dominance that Mahomes, who became the starter in 2018, has never played a true road game (10-2 at Arrowhead, 2-1 in the Super Bowl).

If the Bills win, Mahomes and Chiefs will travel to Buffalo for the first time since October 2020 (Chiefs won 26-17); the teams’ last five meetings have been in Kansas City.

By comparison, through their first 15 playoff starts, Brett Favre played seven on the road, Tom Brady five and Joe Montana four.

3. Pacheco healthy. Chiefs tailback Isaiah Pacheco missed the Bills game (shoulder) and was concussed against Las Vegas in Week 16. But he was cleared and rushed for 130 yards against Cincinnati in Week 17, sat out the regular-season finale and gained 89 yards on 24 carries against Miami.

The Chiefs’ 34 carries were their most since 35 against the New York Jets in Week 5.

No matter the opponent, Kansas City’s next game plan should mirror what it did against the Dolphins:

Mahomes threw 26 times in the first half to help the Chiefs build a 16-7 lead; he threw 15 times in the second half.

4. Texans are a blast. Houston looked terrific in dismantling Cleveland in Saturday’s early game, 45-14.

If the Bills win, Houston heads to Baltimore. If the Steelers win, the Texans go to Kansas City.

Quarterback C.J. Stroud is so fun to watch – he knows exactly where to go with the football (16 of 21 for 274 yards and three touchdowns); old friend Devin Singletary averaged 5.1 yards per carry; and receiver Nico Collins is developing into a No. 1 (six catches for 96 yards). The defense had four sacks and two interceptions returned for touchdowns.

Texans coach DeMeco Ryans is facing a significant challenge after the season. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik could be one-and-done if he gets a head-coaching job. Does Ryans stay in-house and make the new coordinator use Slowik’s playbook or does he look outside the organization, comfortable that Stroud can pick up a second system in as many years?

That’s the rub for owners who hire head coaches with backgrounds on defense. Success equals losing the offensive coordinator.

Ryans should focus on the best candidate. Philadelphia promoted Brian Johnson from quarterbacks coach to coordinator this year and it hasn’t worked.

5. Saturday snoozers. By 4:30 p.m. Buffalo time, most of us were home for the night (and all of Sunday) and wanted to enjoy high-level playoff drama.

The 25-point average margin of victory by Texans/Chiefs was the highest for a wild-card Saturday since after the 2002 season, when it was 30.5 (Jets 41-0 over Indianapolis, and Atlanta 27-7 over Green Bay).

6. Quicker turnaround. The Bills or Steelers will be at a rest disadvantage next weekend.

If the Bills win, they will have two fewer days of rest/preparation than the Chiefs. But at least they will be playing at home.

If the Steelers win, becoming the first seventh seed to advance since this playoff format began in 2020, they will play at Baltimore, which hasn’t played since Jan. 6. But at least it’s a short flight.

7. Dolphins done. The depleted Dolphins limped to the finish line, losing three of their last four games. After Week 12, they were 8-3 and a half-game behind Baltimore for the AFC’s top seed. They finished 11-7.

What about the offense? It scored 22, 19, 14 and seven points, respectively, in those four games. Tua Tagovailoa was healthy and franchise quarterbacks overcome injuries to other parts of their team. Tagovailoa is eligible for a contract extension.

The Dolphins went 1-6 against teams that made the playoffs (including Saturday night) and their point differential in those games was minus 106.

8. Unprecedented decision. How rare was the call to move Steelers-Bills from 1 p.m. Sunday to 4:30 p.m. Monday? With help, I couldn’t find another example.
Pretty early in its history, the NFL adopted the mindset of, “We’re playing no matter what,” and that was an era when the title games were played at home sites. The fields were frozen (ice/blizzards) or muddy (rain). The games went on. The 1948 title game (Cardinals at Eagles) was played in a blizzard and the ’49 title game (Eagles at Rams) was played in a downpour. The combined points in those games was 21.

But when Gov. Kathy Hochul got involved, Steelers-Bills was going to be moved.

The new Bills stadium won’t make a difference for travel bans – if fans, law enforcement and employees can’t get to the new venue, the game won’t be played, either.

9. Patriots’ process. Here’s what New England owner Robert Kraft had to be thinking last year when he established a succession plan from Bill Belichick to Jerod Mayo: The Patriots would bounce back in 2023, Belichick would continue on the job through breaking Don Shula’s career wins record and Mayo would eventually take over a playoff-caliber club.

Oops. The job has changed – from a transition/maintain to a rebuild.

The Patriots’ futility this year has made Mayo’s job much tougher. His biggest hire is finding an offensive coordinator and staff who can identify a new quarterback with the third overall draft pick.

10. Waiting on Harbaugh. The Los Angeles Chargers and maybe Las Vegas could be waiting to talk to Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh before kicking their searches into real motion. The Raiders reportedly have not conducted a “known” interview yet.

The Chargers, Raiders and Carolina still have openings for general managers. Those owners could take a clue from the new Washington ownership group, which hired a new chief football person (Adam Peters) before hiring a coach.

 

[HipKat]

Bills Mailbag: How much does the weather delay help?​

Welcome to the Super Wild-Card Weekend edition of the Bills Mailbag. What a mouthful that is to say. Let’s get right to your questions, starting with the big topic this week: The weather.

Jeff in Florida asks: I still can’t believe the state, Erie County and the Bills are building a stadium that costs more than $1 billion and doesn’t include a dome. It’s a total breakdown on sanity. The last playoff game we hosted saw how the elements played in the Bengals’ favor. (Monday’s) game looks like more of the same bad weather, which I see as being on the Steelers’ side. On a clean field, the Bills win by 15. Your thoughts?

Jay: Thank you, Jeff, for the question. I’ve spent the better part of three days this week sharing my thoughts for free on this on X – now I’ll just share my full response here and link to the article, driving up those page views!
Even with the game moved to Monday, answer this: What team is rooting for the weather to be as atrocious as possible? I don’t see how anyone says the Bills to that question.

The Steelers’ game plan was always going to be to lean heavily on running the ball. Mason Rudolph is bound to turn back into a pumpkin at some point. Even if it was 70 degrees and sunny (wouldn’t that be nice?), Pittsburgh’s not going to ask him to throw the ball all over the field to beat the Bills. It’s logical that Pittsburgh’s game plan was always going to be to try and take the air out of the football, establish the run and keep the ball away from Josh Allen. The snow helps that game plan. The Bills will have to prove, particularly on defense, that they’re built to stop the run when they know it’s coming. Can they do that? Their run defense ranked 28th in the NFL in yard per attempt, allowing an average of 4.6 yards per carry.
The Bills showed against Dallas that they can win a game by running the ball almost exclusively, but can they do so against a team that Bills coach Sean McDermott calls the most physical they have faced this season? Again, that remains to be seen. The Bills are 9.5-point favorites. Put this game in a dome, and I’d pick them to win by 14. The weather hurts the Bills more than it helps them.

“But Jay, this is why the Bills drafted Allen — for these conditions!” Let’s look at that. After some research, here are Josh Allen’s passing numbers in “weather games,” including the postseason:

• Temperature below 32 degrees at kickoff: 10 starts, 9-1 record, 196 of 325 (60.3 completion percentage), 2,423 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 93.6 passer rating.
• Sustained winds of 20 mph-plus: 5 starts, 3-2 record, 98 of 175 (56.0 completion percentage), 1,084 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 86.9 passer rating.
• Sustained winds of 25 mph-plus: 2 starts, 1-1 record, 30 of 56 (53.5 completion percentage), 317 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 73.3 passer rating.

Allen has played in just one game in his career with the temperature below 32 degrees and sustained winds at 25-mph plus. That was on Christmas Eve 2022 against the Bears. The Bills won that game over a team that eventually landed the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft, with Allen going 15 of 26 for 172 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

If the forecast holds and the temperature is well below freezing and the winds are sustained at 25 mph, throwing the ball effectively promises to be a big challenge. Allen has been money in the cold, but his accuracy, understandably, dips when it gets really windy. Moving the game to Monday helps, but it’s still not going to be a picnic passing.

Last year after the loss to the Bengals, former Bills receiver Isaiah McKenzie criticized his team’s game plan, saying Cincinnati appeared to be better prepared for the conditions. The weather that day was a lot better than what is forecast Monday. The Bills have changed offensive coordinators since then, so it remains to be seen how Joe Brady calls a game in bad weather with so much on the line.

As for the point about whether a dome should have been built, obviously, it’s not happening, so it no longer matters. The goal every season for General Manager Brandon Beane should be to build the strongest team possible, starting with a great quarterback. It shouldn’t be to build a roster that needs to rely on 20 mph winds and a foot of snow to be successful at home. The new stadium is designed to offer some protection from the elements and is expected to reduce the impact of the wind, so that should help. For now, though, I’ll disagree – strongly – with any suggestion that the weather will provide any sort of home-field advantage Monday.

Dennis Priore asks: At the end of the first half against Miami, Josh Allen threw a pass to Ty Johnson. Allen has taken his share of the blame for throwing it outside the end zone and or not throwing it away and settling for a field goal. However, the tackle by Eli Apple and then Jerome Baker was a blatant head-to-head hit that caused Johnson to suffer a concussion. Why do you think it wasn’t called and if it was called, would the Bills get another untimed play at that point?

Phil in Williamsville asks: Many people are saying the helmet-to-helmet hit at the end of the first half that kept Ty Johnson out of the end zone and gave him a concussion was illegal. I think since Johnson had completed the catch and become a runner trying to score, the hit was indeed legal. Am I right or everyone else?

Ed Helinski asks: In lieu of Ty Johnson’s concussion against Miami, what’s your take on the NFL rule regarding helmet-to-helmet contact? How well is this rule being enforced and called by NFL officials? How can the distinctive sounds from violent helmet collisions be mistaken for anything else and overlooked?

Jay: They missed it. Plain and simple. It’s the human element of the sport, and unfortunately, it cost the Bills in that situation. Replays showed very clearly that it was indeed a helmet-to-helmet hit that caused a serious injury. Had it been called, you’re right Dennis, the Bills would have received an untimed down, which would have allowed them to either kick a field goal or go for a touchdown from the 1-yard line.

Sorry, Phil. Everyone else is right. Helmet-to-helmet hits occur any time a player’s face mask or helmet makes forcible contact with an opponent’s head or neck area. That’s precisely what happened to Johnson. It doesn’t matter that he had made a football move – you still can’t hit a player in the head with your helmet.

You’d like officials to be perfect … but they’re not. Making penalties a reviewable play would correct some of the problems, but I’m not sure there is much of an appetite for that to happen from fans, players, coaches or the league. It’s unfortunate any time a penalty is missed, but I recognize the speed at which the game is played, and that mistakes are going to happen.

Art H. asks: My take is that football players are creatures of habit and routine. Some of the Bills’ off games seem to be games played on other days, other continents, and with other kickoff times. What is a player’s day like when kickoff is not until 8:20 p.m.? Do they just sit around in a hotel all day? How does game day routine: wake up, meals, down time, team bus, etc. vary from a 1 p.m. Sunday start time to say an 8:20 p.m. start on Sunday night?

Brenda Alesii asks: The 8:20 p.m. game against the Dolphins on Sunday night felt like it took an eternity to arrive. I’m curious about what the players can and can’t do to fill time leading up to prime-time games and what you have to do to adjust to different deadlines and travel schedules.

Jay: Players have a team meeting shortly after they arrive at a hotel, but then are free for most of the night to visit with friends or family when they get to a new city. They have a curfew they have to meet. The next morning, they’ve got free time and more team meetings, depending on the time of the game. There is indeed a lot of down time for them before a night game. Some players will get a light workout in to stay active. There are actually three different buses that leave for the stadium, and players can take any of them depending on how early they prefer to arrive. For me, night games mean what we write won’t make the next day’s print product, but we do have an e-edition that goes out every game night, so we have fairly tight deadlines to produce that. Last week, for example, my deadline for the report card I do was 12:30 a.m. and my deadline for my observations column was 1:10 a.m. Considering the game didn’t end until close to 11:30 p.m. and the locker room doesn’t open until 10 minutes after the final player enters, that clearly doesn’t leave a lot of time for writing. That adrenaline rush of trying to meet deadline is an exhilarating feeling.

Jeff Miller asks: It seems as though the “tush push” isn’t novel anymore. It was stopped multiple times. Couldn’t they do something like line up in that formation and then run off tackle? Does any other team have the fan base like the Bills that follows them from game to game? It is humorous to see so much red and blue in the stands, and the cheering must be extra encouraging to the team.

Jay: Sure, they could line up that way and run in a different direction as opposed to straight up the middle. In fact, if you watch closely against Miami, the Bills did that, although not to the extent that it was off tackle. There are other fan bases that travel well. Actually, the Steelers do that, as do the Cowboys. Those would be the two that immediately come to mind.

Frank Radens asks: With many of the Dolphins’ defensive stars injured, they blitzed Allen throughout the game. Do you see the Steelers doing the same? Do you think the Bills are saving a goal-line pass for David Edwards in the near future?

Jay: You’re right, Frank, about the Dolphins’ game plan. They blitzed Allen a whopping 16 times. That’s a dangerous game to be playing against an elite quarterback. The weather Monday might impact how often the Steelers try to follow suit. If Allen identifies the open man quickly and gets the ball out of his hands, it could mean big gains for the Bills, so the amount of blitzing could come down to how much the Steelers’ coaching staff trusts that their players will have the correct footing to not get out of position. I’m all for a “fat guy” touchdown, so let’s hope Joe Brady is saving that for just the right time.

Ken Barker asks: Do you think the Bills would be seriously interested in former New York Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale?

Jay: I do not. Perhaps just as important, I don’t believe Martindale would be interested in coming to Buffalo. He’s going to want to go somewhere where he can run the show defensively, and that’s Sean McDermott’s job in Buffalo. Even if the Bills do hire a defensive coordinator after this season and McDermott hands over play-calling duties to that person, it’s still going to be the head coach’s defense. Martindale will want to go somewhere with an offensive-minded head coach so he can run the show his way on defense.

Dale in Williamsville asks: With the Bills being 5-1 against playoff teams and the Steelers being 1-10 without T.J. Watt, the result of the game might seem obvious, but weather and a strong Pittsburgh running game could negate or neutralize those stats. How would you rate the four points above with 1 being the most relevant and 4 the least?

Jay: 4. Bills 5-1 against playoff teams. It’s a cliché, but every team starts the postseason 0-0. It really doesn’t matter what both teams did in the regular season. 3. Pittsburgh’s running game. They’ve got it going lately, and will be a big challenge for Buffalo’s defensive front. 2. T.J. Watt being out. He’s perhaps the best defensive player in football, and his absence totally changes how Pittsburgh will try to defend Allen. 1. The weather. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph will make it very challenging to throw the ball, if the forecast holds.

Thank you for all the questions this week! As a reminder, they can be submitted via X to @JaySkurski or by email to jskurski@buffnews.com.

'Unique' continuity: Year after mixing, matching offensive line, same five Bills have started every game​

Each morning following a Buffalo Bills game, offensive line coach Aaron Kromer gathers the guards, tackles and centers to review video, complimenting positive plays and correcting mistakes. Read the page before turning it toward the next week, as they say. Kind of like most NFL meeting rooms.

The similarities end there.

Kromer emphasizes collaboration and eye contact between him and the players and from player to player, and his room at the Bills’ facility reflects that. Instead of rows of tables, classroom-style, Kromer has set up a U-shaped table facing the projection screen. The five starters are on one side and the reserves across from them.

They all talk. They all listen. They all learn. From Kromer. From each other.

“It’s not, ‘I’m the teacher and you’re the students,’ ” Kromer told The Buffalo News before practice Thursday. “We’re communicating amongst ourselves and working all together about why things are happening.”

Happening for the Bills’ offensive line this year is a product of communication and a work-together spirit … and a little bit of luck.

After running through six starting offensive line combinations in 18 regular-season/playoff games last year, the Bills have rolled out the same five players – left tackle Dion Dawkins, left guard Connor McGovern, center Mitch Morse, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and right tackle Spencer Brown – in all 17 games entering Monday's AFC wild-card matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Instead of waiting and occasionally fretting about who would be available to play, which impacted the game plan, the Bills know their five-man group. And, of course, health is one thing. They’re also playing well, having allowed the league’s fewest sacks (24) and the fewest in quarterback Josh Allen’s six seasons.

“It’s a great thing, especially on the O-line,” said McGovern, who signed as a free agent from Dallas in March. “The more you play together, the better the chemistry gets and the more you know everyone works around you.”

'Unique’ achievement​

The line’s cohesion kicked into gear when Torrence, a rookie second-round pick from Florida, was named the starter at right guard after the preseason. He joined McGovern as the two newcomers.

Torrence and Brown have played all 1,164 snaps, McGovern has only missed 28 plays, Morse 35 and Dawkins 44. A majority of those missed snaps were blowout wins when Kromer pulled them from the game. Dawkins was sidelined for a stretch of last week’s win at Miami because of a hand laceration.

Kromer entered the NFL in 2001 as the Oakland Raiders’ offensive line coach, and has led the line for the Raiders, New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams and is in his second stint with the Bills. Kromer’s lines in New Orleans (2010) and Los Angeles (2018) started all 16 games together. In 2021, the Rams’ line missed only five combined starts on their way to a Super Bowl.

Bills reserve lineman David Edwards started every game at left guard for the Rams in ’21.

“This is really unique; incredibly remarkable,” Edwards said of the Bills’ durability this year. “It’s a credit to the five guys that take care of themselves, eat right, train right, sleep right, practice right and play well.”

 

[HipKat]

Continuity building starts in practice, and the availability of the starting line from Wednesday-Friday is just as impressive.

The league requires teams to issue three injury reports per week (not including bye). Through Friday’s 54th injury report, the Bills’ starting line has only missed three combined practices (Dawkins for a personal reason in Week 6 and illness on Thursday, and Morse for an illness in Week 18) and has been limited only twice (Brown with a shoulder in Week 3 and Dawkins with a hand on Wednesday).

To use Edwards’ word, unique.

Brown provided an example of the line’s practice mindset. On Wednesday, the Bills held a walk-through outside, but there wasn’t a lot of walking.
“Especially late in the year, you dial back the hard individual and hard team periods, but that’s why the walk-throughs are important for technique,” Brown said. “Instead of moseying through it, you make sure you’re honing in, because that can carry over to Sunday because your body is going to react to what you’ve been consistently doing. If you do a 30-minute walk-through and your technique is (awful), it will carry over.”

Said Kromer: “There are a lot of times I have to back them down (in practice). They want to practice every day, and I’ll substitute the other guys in who will be dressed (as back-ups) on Sunday, and we go through just-in-case scenarios.”

Standout performances​

Just because a starter is healthy doesn’t mean he will keep his spot. They have all played at a high level.

• Dawkins was voted as Pro Bowl starter and didn’t allow a solo sack until Week 11 against the New York Jets and only two sacks on the season, per The News’ charting.

When he joined the Bills’ staff in 2022, Kromer reviewed all of Dawkins’ tape dating back to his rookie year in 2018.

“He’s definitely having his best year,” Kromer said.

• The Bills signed McGovern to replace veteran Rodger Saffold and he has only three enforced penalties this season. McGovern allowed two sacks in the Bills’ season-opening loss at the Jets, but then had clean pass protection sheets (no sacks, knockdowns or pressures) in six of the next seven games and didn’t have a “bad” run block (gain of one or fewer yards not including short-yardage) in 12 of the 17 games.

“(Kromer) has me playing to my strengths, like being on the attack in the pass game and using all of my strengths to my advantage,” McGovern said.

• Morse has only four enforced penalties, and he is stuck with one because of an official’s misidentification. The News has booked him for only a half-sack (at Kansas City).

“It’s a tale of two years, in regards to health and to be there at practice and get reps with the guys and be in the flow of things and not fight two battles – game-planning and taking care of my body,” said Morse, who missed four games last year. “I’m very fortunate.”

Said Kromer: “Mitch having his seniority and his ability to communicate, it’s really helped (Torrence).”

• Torrence has five penalties and will look for a bounce-back after allowing a sack/fumble to Miami’s Christian Wilkins. But Torrence is a building block on a rookie contract.

“(The continuity) has helped out a lot, because we’ve learned how to communicate, and it makes us play more as a unit,” Torrence said.

• Brown had a rough go in the Week 1 loss to the Jets, allowing one sack, one knockdown and three pressures, but he has allowed only four solo sacks in the next 16 games, per The News’ charting. He didn’t have a solo “bad” run block all season.

“Spencer’s had a wonderful year both protecting the quarterback and in the run game,” Kromer said.

'Huge bonus’​

Those Monday-morning meetings after a Sunday game follow the same routine. Kromer will run through a single play a minimum of five times, one for each lineman on the field.

• Watch the play.
• Discuss it.
• Rewind it.
• Repeat it.

The starters’ seating chart to Kromer’s left is Brown, Torrence, Morse, McGovern and Dawkins. If a teammate sees something, he says something. Everything is constructive.

“When somebody is talking, you can easily look at them – you don’t have to turn around like if it was rows,” McGovern said.
The play-to-play conversations are usually succinct because so much of it was covered on the sideline during the game by using Microsoft Surface tablets.

“Halftime is really for rest, more than it is for adjustments, because we’ve seen everything and we know everything that’s going on, and after every drive, we have those conversations and they’re able to communicate to me, ‘Hey, listen, I should have done this,’ or, ‘Go ahead and run that again because I just missed my opportunity to make a block,’ or, ‘Everything’s good,’ ” Kromer said. “They’re excellent at bringing that to the sideline.”
Yet another bonus of the linemen knowing each other’s games so well is interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, working with Kromer, can expand his play-calling sheet.

“You can add wrinkles when it’s the same guys, and continue to grow your game-planning,” Kromer said. “When you don’t (have the same group), you have to pull back and understand you’re going to have to do a lot of teaching.”

Driving to the facility each morning during a game week, Kromer said he “definitely” has a peace of mind because he knows who his five starters will be. No juggling of personnel. No worrying about whether a certain player will practice later that day. The Bills have achieved that goal 17 consecutive times, and their best chance at reaching the Super Bowl is keeping the line intact.

“Anytime you have that continuity, they’re going to feel better about their combination blocks and switching stunts in pass protection, and they’re going to know how it feels for the guy next to him in the blocking schemes,” Kromer said. “It’s definitely a huge bonus.”

Year-long durability​

A year after starting six starting offensive line combinations, the Bills used the same five players in all 17 regular-season games. A look at their snaps and play-time percentages (out of 1,164 snaps):
Position – Player – Snaps – Percentage
RT – Spencer Brown – 1,164 – 100%
RG – O’Cyrus Torrence – 1,164 – 100%
LG – Connor McGovern – 1,136 – 98%
C – Mitch Morse – 1,129 – 97%
LT – Dion Dawkins – 1,120 – 96%

Protecting Allen​

Where the Bills have ranked in sacks allowed during quarterback Josh Allen’s six seasons:
Year – Number of sacks allowed – NFL rank
2018 – 41 – Tied 17th fewest
2019 – 40 – 16th fewest
2020 – 27 – Ninth fewest
2021 – 27 – Second fewest
2022 – 33 – Eighth fewest
2023 – 24 – Fewest
Total – 192 – Fourth fewest

How OL was built​

How the Bills acquired their current starting offensive line:
Position – Player – How acquired
LT – Dion Dawkins – Second-round draft pick, 2018
C – Mitch Morse – Signed as free agent from Kansas City, 2019
RT – Spencer Brown – Third-round draft pick, 2021
LG – Connor McGovern – Signed as free agent from Dallas, 2023
RG – O’Cyrus Torrence – Second-round draft pick, 2023

 

[HipKat]

Scouting Report: Weather delay should be big benefit for Bills​

When the Bills throw​

Allen has developed a nice chemistry recently with Khalil Shakir, who last week caught all six of his targets for 105 yards. According to NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Shakir led the league by catching 14.3% of his targets over expected during the 2023 season. The Bills used Stefon Diggs in motion last week on 43.6% of his routes, according to Next Gen Stats, and it helped him finish with seven catches for 87 yards. Allen killed the Dolphins last week on play action, going 9 of 10 for 167 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He finished plus-12.3% in completion percentage over expected, which trailed only his Week 4 performance against Miami (plus-14.2% CPOE) for best of the season. With Gabe Davis out because of a knee injury, Trent Sherfield Sr. will see an uptick in snaps. He made a fantastic touchdown catch last week in the win over the Dolphins, and can reasonably be trusted in most situations. EDGE: Bills.

When the Bills run

Whether Allen can have similar success on play action against the Steelers will in large part be determined by how well the run sets up the pass (and, again, the conditions). James Cook has cooled considerably since his breakout game against the Cowboys in Week 15, failing to top 70 yards in any of the next three games, including just 36 against Miami last week. Ball security will be at a premium, and that is a concern because Cook fumbled four times on 281 touches during the regular season, second most behind only Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (five on 230 touches). In addition to being one of the game’s best pass rushers, the Steelers’ T.J. Watt is also an elite run defender, so his absence will be doubly felt. EDGE: Bills.

When the Steelers throw

When the Steelers try to throw the ball, don’t be surprised if it comes in the form of short passes. Last week against Baltimore, Mason Rudolph targeted Diontae Johnson five times, and those targets averaged just 10.7 air yards, according to Next Gen Stats. Johnson turned those five targets into four catches for 89 yards and a touchdown. Rudolph, who is 3-0 as a starter this season, took just 2.62 seconds to throw last week against the Ravens. His average intended air yards was just 2.9, and his average completed air yards was just 0.7. Not surprisingly, his expected completion percentage was 77.4%, according to Next Gen Stats, the highest of the week. The Bills must tackle well if the Steelers do utilize a short-passing attack. That has been an issue at times for the Buffalo defense. The Bills had the same number of interceptions (18) as they did allowed touchdown passes – San Francisco was the only team in the league with more picks than touchdowns allowed. EDGE: Bills.

When the Steelers run

Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris, a former first-round draft pick, is peaking at the right time. He’s rushed for at least 100 yards in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. Harris figures to get plenty of work in the inclement weather — even if it’s not as bad as it would have been if the game was played Sunday. The Steelers will try to bully the Bills at the line of scrimmage. The Bills’ run defense, particularly right up the gut, was not good this season, although not having DaQuan Jones for most of the year plays into that, and he’s back now. Harris recorded 100 yards and a touchdown on inside runs last week, despite facing stacked boxes (eight or more defenders) 53.9% of the time, according to Next Gen States, which was second most in the league. EDGE: Steelers.

Coaching

“Sean McDermott and Mike Tomlin played together at William & Mary” is the new “Chris Hogan played lacrosse” or “Ryan Fitzpatrick wears his wedding ring on the field.” The Steelers won nine games this season by one score, the most in the NFL. They will be comfortable in a close game. Both teams fired their offensive coordinator this season, with the Bills replacing Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady and the Steelers replacing Matt Canada with Eddie Faulker (although quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan calls the plays). The last team to make an in-season coordinator change and make the playoffs was the Ravens in 2012. EDGE: Even.

Prediction​

Bills 27, Steelers 20.

After move considered, Bills-Steelers postponed until Monday​

The Buffalo Bills’ game against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round of the AFC playoffs has been moved to 4:30 p.m. Monday because of expected severe weather, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Saturday afternoon.

Hochul posted on X, “I’ve been in communication with @NFL commissioner Roger Goodell regarding the dangerous conditions in Buffalo this weekend. In consultation with our emergency response teams, @BuffaloBills leadership, and the NFL, the Bills game will be postponed to 4:30 pm Monday.”

Later in a news conference, Hochul said, “The bullseye of this storm is scheduled to hit the Southtowns – probably Orchard Park – where at the time we’d have 60,000 people traveling.” She ended her news conference with, “Go Bills.”

A source close to the situation told The Buffalo News that the NFL was considering moving the game to Atlanta, leading Hochul to push for the day to be changed and the game to remain in Buffalo.

In response to an inquiry from The News, NFL spokesman Brian McCarthy said in an email that it is “standard league procedure to have contingent sites on hold for all games in the event conditions at the existing site necessitate a possible change. We don’t name those designated locations.”
He added that reports from earlier in the week “that Cleveland was in the mix were absolutely false.”

In a joint statement, the Bills and NFL cited “the best interest of public safety” for the unprecedented postponement. The game will be televised by CBS, as planned. It had been scheduled for 1 p.m. Sunday at Highmark Stadium.

“We want our Bills to win, but we don’t want 60 (thousand) to 70 thousand people traveling to the football game in what is going to be horrible conditions,” Erie County Executive Mark Poloncarz told reporters at a news conference. Police “need to be assisting in the middle of a snowstorm, helping those in need, not directing traffic at a football stadium. This is something we all agreed on.”

The Steelers remained in Pittsburgh on Saturday and are expected to travel to Western New York on Sunday, a spokesman said, essentially following the same travel routine a day later. Officials also expressed concern about Steelers fans traveling from Pittsburgh.

“The NFL’s priority is always to ensure public safety and avoid diverting resources from authorities that could negatively impact local efforts in the affected area,” McCarthy said. “All decisions are made in consultation with the appropriate state and local authorities and clubs.

“The league’s goal is to play games as they are scheduled, including at the original time, date and location. This limits disruptions to travel and logistical plans for fans, clubs, stadium personnel and media.”

The last time a playoff game was changed by weather was an AFC divisional playoff in 2017 between the Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs. The game was moved from a 1 p.m. kickoff to 8:20 p.m. because of an ice storm in Kansas City.

Hochul had issued a state of emergency on Friday because of the impending storm, and a winter storm warning took effect at 10 a.m. Saturday and is set to run until 7 a.m. Monday for Erie, Genesee and Wyoming counties. For Niagara and Orleans counties, especially the southern portions of them, it went into place at 10 a.m. Saturday and is supposed to go until 3 p.m. Sunday.

A high wind warning went into effect at 4 p.m. Friday for southern Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Wyoming and Allegany counties. For those areas, winds will be 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up to 60 mph.

A high wind warning went into effect at 7 p.m. Friday for northern Erie, Niagara, Genesee and Orleans counties. Winds will come out of the southeast at 20 to 30 mph, with gusts of up to 50 mph.

According to USA Today, had the game been played Sunday and the forecast accurate, it would have been one of the windiest games in league history. The 1982 AFC Championship Game between the Chargers and Bengals had wind gusts of 50-plus mph. So, too, did the game at Highmark Stadium between the Bills and Patriots in December 2021, although the official NFL game book says gusts in that game were only up to 40 mph.
The Patriots threw just three passes in that game, but still won 14-10. Josh Allen completed 15 of 30 passes.

The Bills-Steelers game will be part of a playoff doubleheader with the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to follow at 8 p.m. (ESPN). Should the Bills win, they’ll have significantly less time to prepare for the divisional round than their opponent.

If Kansas City beats Miami on Saturday night, the Chiefs will come to Buffalo next weekend. If the Dolphins win, the Bills would play the winner of Saturday afternoon’s game between the Browns and Texans. It would seem likely that the Bills would play next Sunday if they beat the Steelers, since asking a team to play Monday and again Saturday would seemingly be a big competitive disadvantage the NFL would want to avoid.

Roundtable: What to expect from the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs​

As the Buffalo Bills embark on the playoffs, The Buffalo News’ Bills writers weigh in on their postseason expectations:
Jay Skurski: The path looked to be particularly promising for the Bills. At least two home games, including one against the seventh-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers, and potentially a third if the Ravens got knocked off in the divisional round. That would have meant the road to the Super Bowl coming through Orchard Park.

Unfortunately for Bills fans, Mother Nature just might have her say. A game in lake-effect snow and wind greatly benefits the Steelers, who likely weren’t going to try to throw the ball all that much, anyway. For those who doubt that, ask yourself this question: Which team is hoping for the weather Sunday to be as bad as possible? The answer is Pittsburgh, which is why I see the season ending Sunday – way sooner than anyone in Western New York hoped or expected.

The Steelers are going to try to play smash-mouth football, and I’m not convinced the Bills are built to stop that. Buffalo’s run defense gave up explosive gains, defined as 10-plus yards, on 13.4% of opposition carries, which tied for second most in the NFL with Arizona, behind only the Giants at 14.5%. Bad weather neutralizes the more talented team, which is Buffalo. It also leads to potential turnovers, and that’s another area that favors the Steelers. Pittsburgh had a plus-11 turnover differential this season, tied for third in the league with New Orleans, behind the Giants and Ravens, both at plus-12. The Bills gave the ball away 28 times, which ranked as seventh most in the league. Possessions figure to be limited Sunday, and that doesn’t bode well for a team that gives them away too often.

Should this scenario play out, the Bills face an offseason that promises to feature plenty of changes. The team’s salary cap bill is coming due with the big money on quarterback Josh Allen’s contract kicking in next year. While this team should be commended for the grit it showed in roaring back to win the AFC East, an early exit will only amplify a question that has no easy answer: How does the team build a roster to win in the conditions so often present in Orchard Park in January?

Katherine Fitzgerald: Well, what a difference two months make! I will be totally candid, when the Bills lost to the Denver Broncos on Nov. 13, I very deeply contemplated what my weekends in January would look like. Now, the Bills are the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and they have a nicer playoff picture than in years past.

I think the risky question of “Which version of Josh Allen shows up?” is more pertinent in the wild-card round than in the divisional round. The way the forecast is trending for Sunday’s game makes potential Allen turnovers more problematic in what could be a game with a low number of possessions against the Steelers. But once they clear this hurdle, I like the momentum they will bring into whatever team they face in the divisional playoff game.

The Bills will make it to the AFC championship game, a goal that has eluded them for years. That’s where projecting this gets tough for me. I don’t see the Baltimore Ravens getting upset before then. A fast start from Baltimore against the Bills could be the dagger on this season. Heartbreak is too familiar a tune in Western New York, but I’ll go out on a limb and say the Bills postpone that devastation one more week – they win on the road in Baltimore, and ultimately make it to the Super Bowl, but fall short there.

Mark Gaughan: A loss to the Steelers at home against quarterback Mason Rudolph would be a colossal disappointment. That isn’t to say the Steelers are an easy team to play. They’re physical. Bad weather is an equalizer for a lesser-talented team. But c’mon. Pittsburgh is missing its best player, T.J. Watt. The Bills can’t let this one slip away.

The matchup in the divisional round is favorable as well. Either Cleveland, Houston or, more likely, Kansas City. But the Chiefs are more vulnerable than they have been at any point in Patrick Mahomes’ six-year tenure. I like the Bills’ chances in the divisional round. Baltimore would be the likely opponent in the AFC championship game. You have to like Josh Allen to outplay Lamar Jackson. However, the Ravens are better than they were when they lost to the Bills in the 2020 playoffs, and they’re better than last season, when they lost to Buffalo in the regular season. I like the matchup for the Bills against the Ravens, as well.

The biggest problem from this perspective is: Can the Bills play three straight games without beating themselves with turnovers and mistakes? We have 17 regular-season games that suggest the answer is no. I’ll say the Bills trip themselves up and lose to the Ravens in the AFC final.
Ryan O’Halloran: The AFC playoffs go through No. 1 seed Baltimore, which is where the Bills’ road to the Super Bowl will end Jan. 28.

This weekend, the Bills will beat Pittsburgh, Cleveland will win at Houston and Miami will win at Kansas City. That sets up Browns-Bills and Dolphins-Ravens in the divisional round. The Bills and Baltimore are on a collision course.

What should encourage Bills fans about making a run to Las Vegas: Interim play-caller Joe Brady has committed to a running game led by tailback James Cook and quarterback Josh Allen, which has allowed the Bills to have the time-of-possession advantage in six of Brady’s seven games (6-1 record). … Excellence on third down; the offense is at 50.5% (50 of 99) with Brady. … A third-down defense that held its last four opponents at 40% or worse (all wins). … Allen, period.

What will ultimately keep the Bills from reaching their first Super Bowl since the 1993 season: The Bills’ offense was inconsistent (or lousy) in the first half of the final three games. It started with three consecutive punts at the Chargers, two punts and a field goal vs. New England and two interceptions at Miami. Punching up in class this month, that will prove costly. … Can the Bills get any kind of pass rush from defensive ends not named Leonard Floyd and Greg Rousseau? Step right up, Von Miller. The time is now. … And, the secondary. If cornerback Rasul Douglas (left knee) is unavailable or limited against Baltimore, the Ravens can scheme their way to a win.

 

[HipKat]

'A young Superman in training': Rookie Dalton Kincaid gives Bills offense an advantage

When Buffalo Bills tight end coach Rob Boras turns on the tape, he knows who he’s guaranteed to see: rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid.

“The thing I love about Dalton is that when you hit pause at the end of the play, he's always in the camera,” Boras said. “So, even if he doesn't have the ball, he's finishing by the ball.”

Take Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir’s 81-yard touchdown earlier this season – a touchdown that featured some key blocks by Kincaid. The Bills had Kincaid mic’d up for the game, and he explained his play as only he could.

“I ran down, and just DOOT!” Kincaid says.

But what, exactly, does “doot” mean?

“I have no idea,” Kincaid told The Buffalo News. “I don't even remember saying that, to be honest.”

Conscientious of his catchphrases or not, Kincaid is constantly making noise on the field.

“It’s one of his many sound effects,” fullback Reggie Gilliam said. “He just makes random sounds in different moments. And it's like during the snap, so we're in the play and you just hear him making sound effects over there. … I'm just like, ‘Are you like a character? What are you?’ It's like a cartoon character.”

The chattering comes during a specific window.

“He's a quiet guy,” said interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady, “and then you go on field, and it's kinda, he's a different animal.”

“It's game specific,” Gilliam added. “He gets so excited, like he cannot contain it.”

As the Bills gear up for a playoff run with Sunday's AFC wild-card game against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers, their rookie tight end will be critical in how far they can advance.

Kincaid is having a strong season by Bills’ historical benchmarks and by leaguewide measures. He finished his regular season with 73 catches for 673 yards and two touchdowns.

Kincaid’s 73 receptions are the most by any Bills rookie or first-year player in a season, passing wide receiver Sammy Watkins’ 65 catches in 2014. The 73 are also the most by any Bills tight end in a season, with Pete Metzelaars' 68 in 1993 the previous high.

And in the league as a whole, he’s made his mark. Only three tight ends in NFL history had more catches in their rookie season than Kincaid: Sam LaPorta (86 in 2023), Keith Jackson (81 in 1988) and Jeremy Shockey (74 in 2002).

Twenty-five tight ends were drafted in the first round from 2000 to 2022; 23 played in at least 10 games as a rookie. And of that group, just six caught 40 or more passes, until the standout seasons this year by LaPorta and Kincaid.

‘Advantage: Buffalo Bills’​

When looking to the playoffs, the Bills are expecting the best from Kincaid, but without attaching specific statistical goals to him.

“Like we are with everybody on our team, (the expectation is) just to continue to get better. And what that entails for a tight end can mean a lot of different things,” Boras said. “You can't put a number of catches or touchdowns or anything. It's just, every time we step out there on the field, our job is to be better than we were the week before.”

Still, a good opportunity awaits. The Steelers have allowed an opposing tight end to score in six of their last eight games. Whether Kincaid finds the end zone or not, his presence is a boost to the Bills’ offense.

“A lot of teams can't match up a linebacker or safety with him,” Gilliam said. “So, they have to designate one of their star corners to him, which opens up Stef, Gabe, Khalil whoever else may be. Advantage: Buffalo Bills, there.”

Kincaid’s arrival has changed the fabric of the Bills' offense. They are running more 12 personnel with him and tight end Dawson Knox. Kincaid has earned trust with quarterback Josh Allen from on-the-field reps and from the way he carries himself all week.

“He's in the strength room working on his body and hot tub, cold tub and making sure that he's physically able to go,” Allen said, “because he's taken a few hits this season and, as a rookie, to have this type of season as long as it is, I don't feel like he hit that rookie wall at any point, which is pretty cool to see.”

When Kincaid revels in the fact that Bills veterans believe in him, he teeters on still star-struck.

“It just gives you the confidence, especially those guys believing in you. It's something I would never have ever imagined in my life, but that's the reality right now,” he said Wednesday. “So, super grateful that they do believe in me and have that confidence. And just hoping I can do my part and provide back to them.”

The awe is still there even after having completed his first regular season.

“Just you know, the path coming to where I am today – just still surreal to me,” Kincaid said. “So just kind of living in the moment each and every day.”

But the veteran leaders on the team are quick to toss compliments Kincaid’s way.

“My guy's a pro,” Diggs said. “And as a young player, you kind of see how guys handle adversity and I look him in his eyes, and I can tell he brushes it off like, 'Yeah, I'll get the next one.'

“He kind of has that confidence, that young confidence that you want from players like that. So he has a very bright future in front of him. … He's a young Superman in training.”

The Bills have come up with all types of ways to describe Kincaid.

“We're just both like two golden retrievers,” tight end Quintin Morris said. “We get around each other, and I guess our tails start wagging.”

‘Gonna be special for many years here’​

Kincaid’s impressive year began early. On the first play of 11-on-11 in training camp, Allen threw his way. Since then, the Bills’ first-round pick of the 2023 draft has continued to make his mark.

“When you watch him just from a route running standpoint, it's just understanding how the coverage is and how people are defending him and being able to find the soft spots. I mean, that's not easy to do,” Brady said.

“I think we all just assume you draft a guy in the first round that they're just gonna be able to plug and play, and life is gonna be good, but some of the things that he's doing are not something that a rookie should be able to do.”

Gilliam recalls one of Kincaid’s one-handed grabs in training camp. But beyond his playmaking abilities, Kincaid impressed the Bills staff with how quickly he picked up the playbook. That was a main factor in how his season played out, Boras said.

“I think the urgency that he had and his ability to catch up to Josh and the other guys on the offense and try to be able to speak their same language, if you will,” Boras said. “I think that was probably the biggest thing that allowed him to have some success and continued with this growth.”

Brady had the same compliment as Boras: Turn on the tape, and Kincaid is right there.

“When you watch Dalton Kincaid play, he is around the football every single snap, like he plays the way that football's supposed to be played,” Brady said. “He's the first guy picking guys up. He's around the football just in case there's a turnover, he's chasing, he's running.

“He's a special player that is gonna be special for many years here, and just seeing a rookie be able to do what he does is pretty impressive.”

Ryan O'Halloran: Easy decision – Joe Brady should get full-time coordinator job​

Joe Brady’s work in helping resuscitate the Buffalo Bills’ year in general and their offense in particular should earn him the full-time offensive coordinator job after the playoffs.

Promoting Brady, who is 6-1 since replacing Ken Dorsey on Nov. 14, is one of the easier decisions the Bills’ brass will face in an offseason full of difficult calls.

Brady has the complete trust of quarterback Josh Allen, which shouldn’t count for everything, but should count for something. Their rapport will speed up the transition to the playbook Brady will introduce in the spring.

Brady will make his postseason coordinator debut Sunday at 1 p.m. against Pittsburgh in an AFC wild-card game at Highmark Stadium. Three of his six wins were against playoff teams Kansas City, Dallas and Miami.

“Right from Day One in this role, Joe has been a great communicator, very collaborative and his energy allows for that,” head coach Sean McDermott said.

The biggest difference? The running game with Allen and tailback James Cook.

Brady called – and was fine with – more carries by Allen – 4.8 average under Dorsey, 9.0 under Brady. And Cook has averaged 19.6 rushes/catches in Brady’s seven games compared to 14.4 with Dorsey.

Brady also has impressed the players, many of whom thrived under Dorsey’s watch.

“I think Joe does a great job listening to the things Josh wants especially and we have extra meetings to quickly go over what we like and what we don’t like,” tight end Dawson Knox said. “That two-way communication with the players has been awesome.”

Brady was promoted under less-than-awesome circumstances. The Bills’ offense, McDermott believed, was spinning its wheels. It was time to get desperate to save the season. Handling the job of calling the plays of another person’s playbook is foreign to just about everybody, but Bills tight ends coach Rob Boras could relate.

In December 2015, the St. Louis Rams fired offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti and elevated Boras from tight ends coach for the final four games. The Rams scored 21, 31, 23 and 16 points in going 3-1 under Boras to finish 7-9.

Last month, I asked Boras how he balanced his mind between The Present (helping the Rams win) and The Future (this was a terrific opportunity to audition for the full-time gig).

“I didn’t think about that at all and I haven’t addressed that with Joe if he was thinking that way,” Boras said. “You don’t really have time to think about it as a job interview. If you do, you’re thinking about the wrong things. (The thinking is), ‘How can we help the team right now in the moment?’ ”
How did Boras put his stamp on the Rams’ offense in-season?

“The offense is the offense, right?” he said. “You’re not changing a whole lot. You may switch something and take it a slightly different direction with what you’re emphasizing, but there aren’t wholesale changes that are happening at that point. You might want to, but there is only so much (you can do). You’ve had ‘X’ number of practices in the spring and training camp and you’re not changing a whole lot.”

Boras was promoted to the Rams’ full-time job in 2016. Brady should receive the same promotion.

 

[HipKat]

Quick kicks​

1. Historical matchup. When was the last time college football teammates met as NFL head coaches in a playoff game? A long, long time ago. McDermott and Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin played at William & Mary. I went to my football history go-to – former colleague/always friend Dan Daly for the historical rarity.

In the 1943 NFL Championship Game, Hunk Anderson was co-coach of the Chicago Bears with Paddy Driscoll (George Halas was serving in the Navy) against Dutch Bergman’s Washington team. The Bears won, 41-21.

Anderson and Bergman were Notre Dame teammates from 1918-19 for coach Knute Rockne.

2. Ring memories. Among the Bills coaches and players who have won Super Bowl rings are offensive line coach Aaron Kromer (2009 New Orleans), offensive lineman David Edwards and safety Taylor Rapp (2021 Los Angeles Rams). The last time they wore their rings?
Kromer: “It’s a trophy more than it is something you wear. I wore it around New Orleans after (the Saints beat Indianapolis) so people could see it and I could share it and they could take a picture of it.”

Edwards: “I wore it to a school visit in my hometown (in Illinois) last offseason. I don’t wear it (regularly). I try to bring it out for stuff like a charity event, visits to schools, stuff like that because I remember being that kid and looking up to anybody that was in that position.”
Rapp: “Probably the party when we got it. It’s too big to wear around. Way too big.”

3. Tush push adjustments. The Bills faced five third-and-1 plays against Miami and Allen was 3 of 4 and he didn’t make it in a fourth-and-1. What did the Dolphins do well to defend the play?

“They did a good job of crashing the (defensive) end and playing guys over the top (of the offensive line) and playing guys low, too,” said Edwards, who is the jumbo tight end. “It’s something we’ll look at and correct and be better moving forward, but we also got them a few times.”

4. Miller feels good. Bills defensive end Von Miller had no sacks for the first time in 12 regular seasons (he missed all of 2020), but Playoff Time has been Von Time – 10½ sacks in 11 postseason games.

Miller played only 15 snaps at Miami after he was a healthy scratch for the first time in his career against New England in Week 17.
“I’m feeling good,” Miller said after Thursday’s practice. “I think the rest was key. It just gave my knee another week to heal. I went into that (Dolphins) game and felt good. That last drive, it felt like it was my time and it was playoff football.”

5. Numbers of note. Compared to last year’s playoff loss to Cincinnati, the Bills have 18 new players on their 53-man roster (33.9% turnover) and only three projected defensive starters against Pittsburgh started against the Bengals (defensive end Greg Rousseau, safety Jordan Poyer and nickel back Taron Johnson). … Deonte Harty’s 96-yard punt return touchdown against Miami was tied for the 13th-longest in NFL history and the first in the fourth quarter/overtime since Arizona’s Patrick Peterson (overtime) in 2011. … The Steelers won a league-best nine one-possession games (9-2 record); the Bills were 6-6. … Receiver Stefon Diggs finished with 25 explosive receptions (gain of at least 16 yards), but only five in the last eight games.

Super Wild-Card Weekend predictions: Several teams look to continue surprising seasons​

The NFL’s fourth Super Wild-Card Weekend – six games over three days – opens the postseason and for the fourth consecutive year, the Bills will start at home (Sunday, 1 p.m. vs. Pittsburgh).

Our predictions for the opening round (San Francisco and Baltimore have the first-round byes):

AFC​

Cleveland (5) at Houston (4), Saturday, 4:30 p.m., NBC
I covered quarterback Joe Flacco when he was Denver’s starter until a neck injury ended his season and it appeared his career was winding down. That was five years ago.

Flacco, who turns 39 on Tuesday, started the season out of the league and is now starting for Cleveland in the playoffs. He went 4-1 in his five starts after Deshaun Watson (shoulder) was injured and others were awful. He’s a great story, but the Browns will win because of their defense.
Cleveland finished first in fewest yards (270.2) and passing yards (164.7) allowed per game and defensive end Myles Garrett had 14 sacks.

The Texans, led by terrific quarterback C.J. Stroud, are a year ahead of schedule and will start 2024 as the AFC South favorite. But the Browns win their second playoff game in four years after none from 1999 to 2019. Browns 30-23.

Miami (6) at Kansas City (3), Saturday, 8 p.m., Peacock
The high temperature Saturday at Arrowhead Stadium? Ten degrees. That means it won’t be 10 degrees for the night-time kickoff.

But don’t give up on the Dolphins because they’re playing in frigid conditions. A good running game travels and Miami is sixth in rushing yards per game (135.6) and first in yards per carry (5.06). This is going to be a breakout night for rookie running back De’Von Achane.

The Dolphins are running out of bodies defensively, but the Chiefs haven’t shown much of a pulse offensively in the second half of the season.
The Chiefs’ streak of five consecutive AFC championship game appearances ends. Dolphins 27-24.

Pittsburgh (7) at Bills (2), Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Since the 14-team playoff format was introduced in 2020, the No. 2 seed is 6-0 over the No. 7 seed and the average margin of victory is 12.2 points.
The only two close games? The Bills’ 27-24 win over Indianapolis in ’20 and their 34-31 win over Miami last year.

I would have given Pittsburgh a puncher’s chance if outside linebacker T.J. Watt was healthy, but he is out with a knee injury sustained last week in the win at Baltimore.

The Bills earn a second-round home game with a windblown win. Bills 30-17.

NFC​

Green Bay (7) at Dallas (2), Sunday, 4:30 p.m., Fox
Like Houston, the Packers are a year ahead of schedule with first-season starting quarterback Jordan Love. Just making it to Week 19 equals a success.

But the Packers are playing the wrong team at the wrong place.

The Cowboys went 8-0 at home and won those games by 20, 35, 23, 32, 35, six, 20 and one points. The only close wins were Seattle (41-35) and Detroit (20-19).

Dallas and San Francisco are on a collision course for an NFC title game matchup like the early 1990s. Cowboys 35-14.

Los Angeles Rams (6) at Detroit (3), Sunday, 8:15 p.m., NBC
And to think I thought the Rams would be in contention for the top overall draft pick, allowing them to reset with a quarterback to eventually replace Matthew Stafford.

What a team-building job by general manager Les Snead and coaching job by Sean McVay to get the Rams in the playoffs with a 10-7 record.
Second-year running back Kyren Williams rushed for 1,144 yards and 12 touchdowns despite sitting out five games, and receiver Puka Nacua set the NFL rookie record for catches (105) and yards (1,486). Both were fifth-round picks.

The Lions might be without rookie tight end Sam LaPorta (knee), who had 86 catches (10 touchdowns). Stafford returns to Detroit and leads the Rams to an upset. Rams 20-17.

Philadelphia (5) at Tampa Bay (4), Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Since beating the Bills in overtime on Nov. 26, the Eagles have collapsed, losing five of their last six games, scoring less than 20 points four times, giving up 30 or more points four times and changing defensive play-callers to Matt Patricia.

The Eagles are still playing only because they created a 10-1 cushion to survive their finish. They obviously believe the switch can be flipped now that the postseason has begun. Not going to happen. This is a broken team.

Tampa Bay (9-8) isn’t very good, either, but at least it has some good vibes. The Buccaneers won five of their last six to win the NFC South. It was a comeback season for quarterback Baker Mayfield, who had 28 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.

Major changes are coming for the Eagles and coach Nick Sirianni (Jamestown native) will be on the hot seat moving forward. Buccaneers 17-13.

Bills notebook: Davis and Rapp ruled out; Taron Johnson earns AP second-team All-Pro​

Buffalo Bills coach Sean McDermott ruled out receiver Gabe Davis (knee) and safety Taylor Rapp (calf) for Sunday’s AFC wild-card game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) did not practice for a third consecutive day and is questionable. No Bills player this year who missed all three in-week practices played in the game.

“I think there’s a lot of things that go into it, with his situation,” McDermott said of Douglas. “And so we’ll just see a little bit of how he looks today from the training standpoint, with not practicing, and evaluate the group as a whole.”

Linebacker Tyrel Dodson suffered a shoulder injury in the second quarter of the game in Miami and is also listed as questionable.

Davis was injured in the first half of last week’s win at Miami and did not return, and Rapp was injured on his game-sealing interception.
The Bills practiced inside Highmark Stadium on Friday afternoon and Dodson was limited. Dane Jackson and Baylon Spector are expected to fill the spots of Douglas and Dodson, respectively, if they are unable to play.

Left tackle Dion Dawkins and tight end Dawson Knox, both of whom sat out Thursday with illnesses, were back with the team.
Running back Ty Johnson has cleared concussion protocol and was limited on Friday. He was participating in practice in a red noncontact jersey.
Wide receiver Stefon Diggs and defensive tackle DaQuan Jones had veteran’s rest days Friday.

Johnson recognized​

The Bills’ Taron Johnson has been named second-team All-Pro at slot cornerback by the Associated Press. It’s the first such honor for Johnson in his six years in the NFL.

Johnson had 98 total tackles, 72 solo, eight passes defensed, three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery. He also logged three tackles for loss, two quarterback hits and a sack.

Johnson found out the news after practice, when McDermott told the whole team.

“I feel like it’s been a good year,” Johnson said on his play. “Just wanted to stay consistent. I mean, that’s always been my mindset. So, I just take it one week, at a time and try to put everything I can into that week and hopefully I get the result I want.”

Kansas City’s Trent McDuffie earned the first-team nod for slot corner. Johnson was the only Bills player to make the AP All-Pro list.

“He’s one of our most consistent players,” McDermott said of Johnson. “He’s got that ‘I may be not as gifted with my measurables,’ with his height and size, but you talk about the size of a guy’s heart, and he plays that way, every play, every game he’s out there.”

McDermott also noted how Johnson has “the respect and admiration” of the Bills locker room.

“I think that’s a great quality as a player and a teammate,” McDermott said.

 

[HipKat]

Spector ready if role increases​

Bills second-year linebacker Spector could find himself in the thick of the action again this week due to the injury to Dodson.
Dodson suffered a shoulder injury in the second quarter of the game in Miami and appears questionable, at best, for Sunday’s playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Spector played 19 defensive snaps in Miami in place of Dodson and made four tackles.

It was the most playing time Spector has seen in his career. He had seen only six snaps in three games earlier this season and last year played only 12 snaps, all late in the win over Pittsburgh.

“It felt good,” said Spector, a seventh-round pick out of Clemson in 2022. “The defense came out in the second half and had a lot better half. Kinda settled in. Got out there and started just doing what we do on defense, what we talk about, executing and that led to the result.”

Spector moved ahead of rookie Dorian Williams in subbing for Dodson. Williams played 181 snaps during a six-game midseason stretch but has not played on defense the past two games.

The Bills signed veteran A.J. Klein to the practice squad. If elevated, he could see action next to middle linebacker Terrel Bernard or Klein could be used as a third linebacker when Pittsburgh goes to heavy tight end sets.

Bills assistant head coach Eric Washington liked what he saw from Spector in Miami.

“I thought he stepped in and did a really good job,” Washington said. “He was physical. Baylon clearly understood the offense, understood some of the keys that he had to really focus on to put himself in a position to get to the football, to leverage formations and to be in a position to finish a play. It just speaks to Baylon’s level of preparedness and just always keeping himself ready to step in and to contribute because you never know what might happen.”

Sleeves, no sleeves?​

A debate in the Bills’ locker room after Wednesday’s wind-swept, outdoor walk-through: Sleeves or no sleeves if the conditions are the same Sunday at 1 p.m.?

Right tackle Spencer Brown: “No, no, absolutely not, not a chance. The colder it gets, the better for me instead of dying in the heat of Miami. I would rather freeze my (butt) off.”

Left guard Connor McGovern: “Game-time decision. I don’t want to. It’s all about being tough and the O-linemen want to be tough, but at some point, you have to be smart.”

McDermott on fourth down​

McDermott saved his boldest fourth-down decision of the season for Week 18.

Leading Miami 21-14 with 4:05 remaining, McDermott went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Bills’ 35-yard line and quarterback Josh Allen converted with a 2-yard carry.

It was only the Bills’ second fourth-down attempt (out of 16) in their territory this season; Allen threw incomplete on fourth-and-1 from his 48-yard line early in the third quarter of the Week 10 loss to Denver.

Had McDermott punted against the Dolphins, Miami would have regained possession with four minutes left and all three of its timeouts.

“From the time you’re growing up (playing) Pop Warner ball, that’s a punt situation every time; 10 out of 10, right?” McDermott said. “The game has evolved and analytics has moved the game forward a little bit as well. We may get into that situation this week and I don’t do that. In that situation, I felt like it was the right situation for us to go for it and stay on the gas.”

After Allen’s conversion, Miami used all three of its timeouts before the Bills turned it over on downs with 1:53 remaining.

Special teams rank 28th​

Veteran pro football writer Rick Gosselin’s annual NFL special teams rankings – the average of 22 kicking-game categories – put the Bills 28th this year.

The top five: Houston, New Orleans, the New York Jets, Las Vegas and the Los Angeles Chargers.

The bottom five: The Bills, Green Bay, Green Bay, Washington, Miami and the Los Angeles Rams.

The Bills ranked fifth last year.

Fangio on Sherfield TD​

The Bills’ offense was called for one enforced ineligible man downfield penalty in the regular season (McGovern against Cincinnati), but Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said the Bills got away with one Sunday night.

The play in question was receiver Trent Sherfield’s 6-yard touchdown catch on a pass that deflected off Dolphins linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel.
“(The Bills) had linemen downfield on the play, clearly – I mean, way down (the) field because it was an RPO (run-pass option),” Fangio said to reporters Wednesday. “Unfortunately, the officials didn’t catch it.”

A screenshot of the television copy shows center Mitch Morse blocking at the 4-yard line. By rule, the linemen can’t be more than 1 yard downfield.
The Dolphins were called twice for ineligible lineman downfield, but the Bills declined both penalties.

News Sports Reporter Mark Gaughan contributed to this report.

Mark Gaughan: GM Brandon Beane hit for a big average in helping Buffalo Bills reach playoffs​

If they rated NFL general managers the way modern analysts judge Major League Baseball hitters these days, Brandon Beane would have been near the top of the league in “On Base Plus Slugging” for the 2023 season.

Bear with us on the baseball analogies as we take stock of the moves by the Buffalo Bills’ general manager on the eve of the NFL playoffs.

Beane’s batting average and big hits are a key reason the Bills claimed their fourth consecutive AFC East division title. It's especially impressive considering the Bills were 28th in the NFL in salary cap space (at $16 million over the 2023 cap) just two weeks before the start of free-agent shopping in March.

Here’s a look at the Beane’s “at bats” and the results:

2023 OFFSEASON​

Home runs​

• Signing defensive end Leonard Floyd on June 6 to a one-year, $7 million contract.

Floyd led the Bills with 10.5 sacks and fully compensated for the fact Von Miller could not produce upon returning to the field just 10 months removed from major knee surgery.

The Los Angeles Rams released Floyd on March 10 in a cost-saving decision. He lingered on the market for two months. Beane was not surprised by Floyd’s production because he had recorded 9.0, 9.5 and 10.5 sacks his previous three seasons.

“We were excited to get him,” Beane said. “We were just working with a very tight cap.”

“We were talking to his reps throughout,” Beane said. “Someone’s released and you’re checking. They’re probably feeling the market out. So in those cases sometimes you’re saying I don’t think we can get to X (dollars). But let’s stay in touch."

Floyd turned 31 in September. He was not offered the kind of long-term, guaranteed-money deal that made him sign before the draft.

“We kept the conversations going,” Beane said. “They were always productive. I know at one point Leonard reached out to Von and asked him about the team. Von told him to call me. Leonard and I got on the phone. He thought about it for a day and told me he was in.”

• Drafting tight end Dalton Kincaid at 25th overall.

Kincaid’s 73 catches are fourth most ever by a rookie tight end in the NFL.

Where would the Bills’ offense be without Kincaid? In a heap of trouble. The Utah product filled a giant void as a security-blanket target for Josh Allen that was missing in last year’s offense.

“We knew he was a pro,” Beane said. “We knew he was smart. We felt like he and Josh would be a good match.”

• Giving defensive tackle Ed Oliver a giant contract extension worth $17 million a year, currently 12th in the NFL at his position. Oliver had his best season.

• Acquiring cornerback Rasul Douglas (plus a fifth-round pick) from Green Bay at the NFL trade deadline in return for a late third-round pick. Douglas produced six takeaways in nine games and remains under contract for next season.

Stand-up doubles​

• Signing free-agent guard Connor McGovern to a $7.4 million-a-year contract, currently 25th at his position.

• Drafting O’Cyrus Torrence with the 59th overall pick, fifth from the bottom in the second round.

• Giving a vote of confidence to right tackle Spencer Brown by not spending for costly veteran insurance at the position. Brown turned in his best season and has put himself in contention for a contract extension down the road.

RBI singles​

• Signing Linval Joseph off the street at midseason to beef up the run defense.

• Signing safety Taylor Rapp to a one-year, veteran minimum contract.

• Signing backup receiver and punt returner Deonte Harty to a two-year contract averaging $4.7 million a year. It was a strikeout until the regular-season finale, but Harty’s 96-yard punt return TD to turn the game around made the entire deal worthwhile.

* Joseph and Rapp were among a slew of minimum-salary veterans the Bills signed to bolster the back end of the roster. Beane was determined to wait to sign a lot of one-year, minimum contracts because he did not want to spend bigger and risk losing a compensatory third-round draft pick the team will get as a result of Edmunds leaving for Chicago.

Beane is in a fortunate position in wooing one-year veterans because if the money is relatively equal, a lot of veterans like the idea of getting a chance to win on a team with Allen at QB.

“They say, you know what? I’ll take a one-year deal somewhere,” Beane said. “At that point, that’s part of our sales pitch. If you don’t get what you want, I know you’re looking for a three-year, $15 million deal. We couldn’t do that. I’m not saying you’re not worth it. But if you can’t (get it elsewhere), come here for one. Let’s see if we can improve your stock. Come play with Josh. Play with this team. So we definitely use that as a sales pitch.”

Ground outs​

• Giving a vote of confidence to Gabe Davis as the No. 2 wide receiver. The Bills could use better production at wide receiver. Davis is a middle-of-the-road No. 2 wideout, and that position is a weakness for the Bills when they face defenses with strong cornerback rosters.

THE 2022 DRAFT REVISITED​

Home runs​

• Drafting running back James Cook in the second round. Ranked No. 2 in the NFL in yards from scrimmage and developed into a giant upgrade from Devin Singletary.
• Drafting middle linebacker Terrel Bernard in the third round. Stepped in for Tremaine Edmunds and didn’t miss a beat. Bernard ranked 12th in the NFL in tackles and set a Bills franchise record for sacks by an off-the-ball linebacker (6.5).

Stand-up Doubles​

• Drafting receiver Kahlil Shakir in the fifth round. He improved from 10 catches as a rookie to 39 this year, with a 15.9-yard average.
• Drafting cornerback Christian Benford in the sixth round. He started 14 games and played 78% of the defensive snaps for a defense that ranked No. 7 vs. the pass. One could argue he’s a home run compared with any other sixth-round pick.

Strike out​

• Drafting cornerback Kaiir Elam 23rd overall in 2022. The book has not closed on Elam’s career in Buffalo. Maybe he rebounds next year. So far, he’s a bust.

 

[HipKat]

PlayAction column: Bills must defend 'dark creases' vs. power-running Steelers

Buffalo Bills assistant head coach and defensive line coach Eric Washington threw out an uncommon phrase in talking about defending the Pittsburgh Steelers’ rushing attack this week.

Dark creases.

If you watched the Steelers’ 17-10 victory over the Baltimore Ravens last week, you might have an idea what Washington is talking about.
Time after time, it looked like Baltimore had runs between the tackles bottled up. It looked like a 3-yard gain, at most. Then it turned into 6 yards – or 7 yards.

“This is a physical rushing attack,” Washington said. “Both backs were extremely physical. The offensive line prides itself on dominating the line of scrimmage, whether you are a slide-angle team in the 3-4 tradition or you are a defensive philosophy like ours that’s more gap control-based. And so we’re going to have to match and exceed their physicality. Our discipline and our ability to separate from blocks.

“Then with both of these tailbacks, I mean, they’re just physical runners,” Washington said. “They’re going to challenge what we call dark creases. So if you are in a position as far as your gap is concerned, they’re going to challenge your ability to finish the football play, whether you’re an interior defender or you’re outside on the edge.”

You think you have it bottled up. Then you don’t.

Steelers top back Najee Harris, a first-round pick in 2021, posted his third straight 1,000-yard season this year. He finished seventh in yards with 1,035 and ranks fourth in the NFL in yards after contact with 780, according to Pro Football Focus.

Harris is 6-foot-1, 242 pounds, which makes him the second biggest lead runner in the league, behind only Tennessee’s 247-pound Derrick Henry. It’s no surprise Henry led the NFL in yards after contact with 930.

Pittsburgh’s No. 2 back, 5-8, 215-pound Jaylen Warren, rushed for 784 yards and averaged 5.26 yards a carry, third best in the league among backs with 100 attempts. Warren is fifth in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (3.64).

The Bills could not stop the run in last year’s snowy playoff loss to Cincinnati. But DaQuan Jones was hurt and missed that game. And the Bills didn’t have 330-pound Linval Joseph last year. Joseph has been inactive the past two weeks. He may have to see a bunch of snaps vs. the Steelers.

“We’re just going to have to match and exceed their physicality and just do a good job of executing our defensive concepts,” Washington said. “It’s a big challenge for us.”

Buffalo’s James Cook, who finished fourth in rushing at 1,122 yards, is 15th in yards after contact at 653.

Third down target​

Warren led all NFL running backs in catches on third down with 24. On a bad-weather day, look for quarterback Mason Rudolph to look for Warren and hope he can break tackles to make first downs.

Warren was undrafted out of Oklahoma State, where he rushed for 1,216 yards and caught 25 passes as a senior. He’s another example of how deep the running back position is in the draft almost every year.

Allen in wind​

Josh Allen has been somewhat productive in high-wind games. He was 15 of 30 for 145 yards in 30 mph winds gusting to 40 mph in the 2021 regular season vs. New England. He was 15 of 26 in 26 mph winds and -12 wind chill in Chicago last season. He threw for 239 yards in 20-plus mph winds at home vs. the Jets in 2021.

“The wind may move the ball a little bit,” Allen said. “Again, having the experience that I do in the stadium and knowing wind patterns, what they will expect them to be at least. Just having a good sense of that and again, just finding ways to get our playmakers the ball on the outside. Typically, it’s going to be with weather like this a game that both teams are going to run the ball and it’s going to be very possession-limited, so we got to make these possessions count.”

The 30,000-foot view​

The big concern for the Steelers is quarterback, where Kenny Pickett has been benched in favor of the “hot hand,” journeyman Mason Rudolph. Pittsburgh will be picking later in the first round. The odds are Pickett enters next training camp as the No. 1 at the position. The Steelers organization doesn’t blow with the wind. They took Pickett in the first round, 20th overall in 2022, because they believed in him. Most Steelers observers believe he will get every chance to prove he’s still the guy next summer. The Steelers will try to re-sign Rudolph, who’s a free agent. But he could get a better offer.

Praise from Tomlin​

The budding young star for the Steelers on the offensive line is rookie right tackle Broderick Jones, the 14th pick in this year’s draft out of Georgia. He’s 6-5, 311 with 34¾-inch arms. He’s only 22. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin says he’s becoming the “bell cow” of the offensive line.

“Although he is really young, he plays with a desired demeanor, and it is contagious,” Tomlin said. “He took the fight to Seattle and his teammates followed. And so you don’t have to be a grizzly veteran or a gray beard to lead. I think he’s finding his footing in that area, and that’s exciting. It’s very similar to the way that Maurkice Pouncey matured through his first year as a player in the things that we saw in him that eventually became captain-worthy.”

Drop count​

Drops could be a factor in bad weather. Drop statistics are somewhat subjective. The Bills had 32 drops on the season, according to Buffalo News charting. They ranked tied for seventh in the NFL in drops, according to Sportradar. The league average was 26.

Stefon Diggs led the Bills with 10 drops, according to News charting. Gabe Davis had five and James Cook five.

The Steelers had the second fewest drops in the league with 16.

Stats for the road​

The Steelers are 1-10 without T.J. Watt in the lineup. ... The Bills need to watch out for slot cornerback blitzes from No. 34, Chandon Sullivan. He had the eighth most in the NFL this season among cornerbacks and the second-highest blitz rate among CBs (12.8%), according to PFF. ... Overall, Pittsburgh has the sixth highest blitz rate, and it is 11th in total sacks (47). ... Allen will have to watch out for No. 20, Patrick Peterson, who is going strong at age 33 for the Steelers. He has played the most snaps of any Steelers defender. Remember, Peterson was a Viking last season and read Allen’s eyes to make the clinching interception vs. the Bills in overtime. Peterson played safety the past three games. But with Minkah Fitzpatrick back, look for Peterson to play more cornerback. He could line up wide, in the slot or deep.

Inside the Bills: Why Josh Allen's MVP case should be getting more love​

Let’s do a little comparison by numbers, shall we?

Quarterback A: 385 of 579, 4,306 yards, 66.5 completion percentage, 29 passing touchdowns, 18 interceptions, 24 sacks taken, 7.4 yards per attempt. 111 carries, 524 yards, 15 rushing touchdowns.

Quarterback B: 307 of 457, 3,678 yards, 67.2 completion percentage, 24 passing touchdowns, 7 interceptions, 37 sacks taken, 8.0 yards per attempt. 148 carries, 821 yards, 5 rushing touchdowns.

Now, some team stats.

Quarterback A: Yards per game: 374. 5 (fourth in NFL). Yards per play: 5.7 (fifth). Points per game: 26.5 (sixth). Third-down efficiency: 49.8% (first). First downs per game: 22.4 (third).

Quarterback B: Yards per game: 370.4 (sixth). Yards per play: 5.9 (third). Points per game: 28.4 (fourth). Third-down efficiency: 42.0% (tied for eighth). First downs per game: 21.1 (seventh).

What can you conclude about the season for the above quarterbacks? Clearly, they are both excellent players. But to suggest that one of them had a far-and-away better season than the other is a tough case to make.

Of course, there is one more comparison to make, even if it’s not a quarterback stat.

Quarterback A’s team: 11-6, No. 2 seed in the AFC playoffs.

Quarterback B’s team: 13-4, No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.

You don’t need to be Matlock to have determined by now that the above comparison is between the Bills’ Josh Allen and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson. What’s hard to figure out, however, is why Jackson is the overwhelming MVP favorite, when Allen’s numbers suggest there is at least a decision to be made.

According to covers.com, Jackson is minus-20,000 to win MVP, which means you bet $100, that would return … $100.50. Meanwhile, a $100 bet on Allen to win MVP is at plus-3,000 odds, meaning that $100 would return $3,100.

Jackson as the betting favorite is understandable. He’s had a terrific season in leading the Ravens to the No. 1 seed. But has his season been so much better than Allen’s as to have the odds so drastically tilted like that? It speaks to the groupthink involved in voting for NFL awards if that’s the case.

The only sure-fire, big statistical advantage Jackson has on Allen is giveaways. Combining lost fumbles and interceptions, Allen had 22 of them, compared to 13 by Jackson. But some context is required when considering Allen’s 18 interceptions, including when and where they happened on the field. For example, his first interception in the red zone didn’t come until last week against Miami.

“I’m trying to do whatever I can to help the team win,” Allen said. At the “same time, I don’t want to throw them. It’s not fun looking at the stat sheet and seeing interceptions, whether it’s before the half, on a Hail Mary attempt or long fourth down, it still doesn’t feel great. And interceptions, sometimes it’s just momentum. It’s something that you can’t see, but something you can feel and sometimes it gives them momentum.

“Don’t want to limit our chances to score points and I’ve done that a couple of times throughout the season and that’s never any fun. I guess it’s part of the game, you’re going to have a bad throw here, you’re going to have a tip here or there, but the ones that you make bad decisions on, I got to find a way to limit those and not have those anymore because that could come back to bite us and I don’t want to be the reason why.”

We’ll concede Jackson has had a better season than Allen in that regard. In terms of overall offensive production, however, it’s much, much closer. In the two most rudimentary stats for quarterbacks, yards and touchdowns, Allen comes out on top. He has produced 4,830 yards and 44 overall touchdowns – the latter of which was six more than all NFL players. Jackson produced 4,499 yards and 29 total touchdowns, meaning Allen nearly averaged one full touchdown per game more than Jackson.

Then there is the question of what MVP even means. The award has increasingly gone to the best quarterback on a good team – not since Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006 has a player at a different position won. It’s reasonable, given that quarterbacks are the most valuable players on the field, that they would dominate who wins the award, but should it go to the “most outstanding” or “most valuable?” There is a difference.

Last year, Jackson got hurt and Tyler Huntley stepped into the lineup and helped the Ravens win three of their final five games to make the playoffs. Obviously, it’s a different season, and the quality of backup quarterback plays into this, but ask yourself: If the Bills lost Josh Allen to injury for the final five games of this season, was Kyle Allen running the table to get the team into the postseason?

“All this talk about who’s the MVP of the league. If you really sat down and looked at it objectively, you could build a pretty strong argument that there’s been no player more valuable to their team’s success than Josh has been,” said CBS play-by-play man Jim Nantz. “He has willed his team to victory and sometimes he’s almost willed his team to victory like (in a loss to) Philadelphia. That was a phenomenal performance. The plays he makes, it’s extraordinary.”

To Nantz’s point, Allen left the field with the Bills ahead against the Patriots, Broncos and Eagles, only for the defense to blow the lead.

Allen was responsible for 86% of the Bills’ 51 offensive touchdowns in 2023. Jackson was responsible for 55% of the Ravens’ total touchdowns. That’s a massive disparity. In 2022, the MVP winner, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, was responsible for 76% of the Chiefs touchdowns. In 2020 and 2021, Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers was the back-to-back MVP winner, accounting for 80% and 77% of his team’s touchdowns, respectively.

“I say it all the time: Josh is just that guy,” Bills receiver Khalil Shakir said. “He’s a great human being, first of all. You have a conversation with him and he wishes you nothing but the best and looks out for you and has your back in every aspect of life, but then steps onto that field and he’s a freak of nature. He’s the perfect leader. He’s the guy everyone wants on their team, and we have him here. He’s led the way and shown us the mentality we need to have every time we step on the field.”

Against the Dolphins on Sunday, Allen’s MVP case took a hit in the first half. He threw a pair of interceptions and made an ill-advised throw short of the end zone at the end of the second quarter that led to time expiring with the Bills unable to get points despite being in chip-shot field goal range.
“He comes in at halftime and he’s getting us all riled up, ready to go,” Shakir said. “He tells us all the time: ‘We’re going to win this game.’ ... When you know your leader and your quarterback has that mentality, we’re going to get this win no matter what it takes, it’s a great feeling. Having No. 17 lead the way makes you feel real good about it.”

Allen did just that in the second half, overcoming a lost fumble to lead a 74-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter for the go-ahead points.
“Talk about playing free,” center Mitch Morse said. “When you have Josh at quarterback, a big play could happen at any moment. You understand that he can get you out of a lot of trouble that you can put him in. He’s just ‘QB1’ for a reason and we have his back.”

The NFL Players’ Association released its All-Pro team this week, and Jackson was chosen as the quarterback. No Bills made the team. Asked for his response to that, Allen thought for a few seconds before offering a smile and his go-to phrase, “Go Bills.”

The MVP will be awarded the Thursday before the Super Bowl. Allen hopes to be in Las Vegas then, just preparing for a game and not an awards show.

 

[HipKat]

How we see it: News writers predict AFC wild-game game between Bills and Steelers​

Here is how The News’ Bills writers see Sunday’s AFC Wild Card game between Buffalo and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Jay Skurski​

The Bills are staring at a second straight playoff game in which the weather helps to neutralize their best player. So much for that home field advantage! Yes, Josh Allen has the arm strength to cut the ball through the wind, but gusts of 40 mph – if they come to be – will drastically impact any quarterback’s ability to throw. That’s an advantage for the Steelers, who likely wouldn’t ask quarterback Mason Rudolph to do all that much even if it was sunny and 70 degrees. If the conditions are as bad as forecast, it’s a big advantage for a Pittsburgh team whose only hope is to run the ball and hope the Bills turn it over. That’s something the home team has done too much of this season.

The Steelers piled up 155 yards on the ground in a must-win Week 18 game against Baltimore that was played in terrible conditions. It feels like they’re better equipped to “win ugly.” Turnovers, an inability to stop the run – the Bills allowed 4.6 yards per carry, which ranked 28th in the league this season – and Mother Nature combine for a shocking playoff exit. Steelers, 20-17.

Katherine Fitzgerald​

While the weather is obviously a concern, the Bills are still the better team. If Highmark Stadium is to get the worst-case weather – massive wind gusts and lake-effect snow – look for the Bills to put the ball on the ground more than usual. They’ve shown they’re better equipped to do so than in past years, and a physical Steelers defense is the next test.

At this point in the week, the Bills’ injuries do loom large. But the Steelers are banged up, too, and notably without star T.J. Watt. Five Bills starters missed practice on Thursday, but I would guess that left tackle Dion Dawkins and tight end Dawson Knox – who both missed the day with illness – will be back in time. I don’t know that the Bills cover, but they get the win on Sunday and continue their season. Bills, 20-13.

Mark Gaughan​

The weather makes this game worrisome. The areas where the Bills have a massive advantage over the Steelers are quarterback and the passing game. The Bills are ranked eighth passing. The Steelers are 25th. A lake-effect storm could almost completely negate the Bills’ edges. This is the best rushing offense the Bills ever have had in the Josh Allen era. However, the Steelers are just as good and maybe a tad better at running. The Steelers don’t turn the ball over and don’t beat themselves with turnovers. You could be looking at a game with perhaps only eight or nine possessions per team.

Remember the 2021 home loss to New England? The wind was 27 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Allen was able to throw some. He was 15 of 30 for 145 yards, which was amazing. Mac Jones was 2 of 3. The Bills lost, 14-10. So if it’s not horrendous wind, maybe the Bills can gain an edge in the air. Obviously, turnovers will be huge. The kicking game will be huge. Pittsburgh’s mission is to take the air out of the ball and get to the fourth quarter. It’s easy to imagine it happening. It shapes up as another white-knuckle finish for Buffalo. Bills, 19-18.

Ryan O’Halloran​

Last January, the Bills were a 13½-point home wild-card round favorite against a Miami Dolphins team starting their third different quarterback (Skylar Thompson). The Bills escaped, 34-31.

Now the Steelers come calling as a 10-point underdog and starting their third quarterback (Mason Rudolph). It is really tough to find a path for Pittsburgh pulling the upset minus pass-rusher T.J. Watt, an anemic passing game (25th in NFL) and bad a red zone offense (27th in touchdown rate).

That leaves the usual only way for the Bills to lose: They give it away … literally.

The Bills’ 28 turnovers were tied for seventh-most in the NFL and second-most among playoff teams (Cleveland had 37!). Too many empty possessions.

Interim play-caller Joe Brady should take the air out of the football in the expected windy conditions. The Bills have at least 35 rushing attempts in five of Brady’s seven games (4-1); their goal Sunday should be 40.

The Bills tack on a late field goal to cover the spread and set up a second-round match-up against Cleveland next weekend. Bills, 30-17.

Bills notebook: Stefon Diggs on 'four more'; Sam Martin earns AFC monthly honors​

It didn’t take long after their win over the Miami Dolphins for Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and wide receiver Stefon Diggs to start thinking about what’s next.

Cameras caught a postgame moment between Diggs and Allen as the two embraced on the field at Hard Rock Stadium.

Diggs was holding his hands up to his mouth as he said something to Allen.

“Yeah, it was more of a whisper,” Diggs said Thursday. “I didn’t really yell. I’m covering my mouth.”

Allen then chants to Diggs: “Four more! Four more! Four more, let’s go!”

“The importance of it, it’s four more, but it’s one game at a time,” Diggs said. “Moreso, the four more emphasis just because we’ve been here before. There’s no shade or no nothing against the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think they’re a great team. And they could be the four-more team.”

But the ultimate goal, bringing a Super Bowl championship team to Buffalo, is nothing new, and it will take four victories, beginning Sunday in an AFC wild-card game against the Steelers at Highmark Stadium.

The exchange about four more games between the two Bills stars was simply a reminder of what’s still in front of them.

“For us, that’s my goal. That’s been our goal,” Diggs continued. “That’s what we always wanted. And that’s what we’ve been preaching about for a long time.

“But I still take that with a grain of salt in you need to focus on this week one week at a time. That’s my honest thoughts.”

Martin earns AFC honorIn December and January, Bills punter Martin led the AFC in multiple categories: percentage of punts inside the 20-yard line (64.75), percentage of punts inside the 10 (29.4) and percentage of punts inside the 5 (11.8). For his efforts, Martin was named the AFC Special Teams Player of the Month on Thursday.

“It’s a nice honor,” Martin said. “Especially this season, it’s a little more rewarding, just given how early on in the season went, and being able to rebound. It’s not just me – it’s the whole punt team unit. And I think we’re showing up at the right time.”

It was the first time in his career that Martin earned a Player of the Month honor.

“It’s nice – 11 years, still learning, still getting better, and it’s nice to get this one under my belt,” Martin said.

With weather issues expected, Martin will know when he walks down the Highmark Stadium tunnel late Sunday morning how difficult it will be to kick.

“We’ll get a lot of intel during warmups,” he said. “We get to play in the wind a lot up here and we practice in it so it’s not something we’re not accustomed to. You have to figure out a game plan for what works and what won’t in the conditions. It’s a challenge you have to accept.”

Since signing with the Bills last year, Martin said the poorest conditions he’s played in was at Chicago on Christmas Eve in 2002. The game-time temperature at Soldier Field was nine degrees and wind of 26 mph (wind chill of minus-12). Martin averaged 53.7 yards (49.7 yards net) on three attempts, including a long of 62.

Before Martin’s punts the football, there are two wind-related factors: Reid Ferguson’s snap and Martin’s drop.

“(The snap) can be a factor when the winds are high,” Martin said. “The biggest thing for Reid is to keep the spiral as tight as possible, but at some point, you’re playing defense back there and you just try and get in front of it.”

And the drop to punt it …

“If you even have a wind in the 20s, that can affect the drop,” Martin said. “It’s a pregame trial-and-error to see what type of drop will work best … When it comes down to it, if I have a headwinds of 40 (mph) and my number is called, I have to figure it out.”

 

[HipKat]

Injury report​

Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins and tight end Dawson Knox missed Thursday’s practice with illness. Dawkins had been limited Wednesday with a hand laceration. Wide receiver Deonte Harty also did not practice Thursday for a personal matter.

Linebacker Tyrel Dodson (shoulder) was downgraded to did not practice after he was limited in Wednesday’s walk-through.

The Bills were without wide receiver Gabe Davis (knee), cornerback Rasul Douglas (knee) and safety Taylor Rapp (calf) for a second consecutive day. Running back Ty Johnson (concussion) was limited and was in a red non-contact jersey during the open portion of practice.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, linebacker T.J. Watt (knee) did not practice, and defensive tackle Cam Heyward (non-injury related, rest) was limited Thursday. Watt has already been ruled out of Sunday’s game.

The Steelers listed four players on their injury report as full participants Thursday: running back Najee Harris (knee), safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee), linebacker Elandon Roberts (pectoral), and guard Isaac Seumalo (shoulder).

Twelve defining moments from the Bills' regular season​

More than 2,000 plays from scrimmage and a combined 122 punts, 57 field-goal attempts, 76 point-after kicks, 46 kick returns and 10 two-point plays later, the Buffalo Bills are back in the AFC playoffs for the fifth consecutive year.

In 17 games (over 18 weeks), there were myriad key plays and one major news development hours after a game.
Entering Sunday’s AFC wild-card game against Pittsburgh, here are 12 defining moments of the Bills’ regular season:

1. Un-grand opening​

When: Week 1 at the New York Jets (Sept. 11).

Situation: The Bills and Jets were tied at 16 in overtime after the Bills wasted a 10-point lead to a Jets team that lost quarterback Aaron Rodgers on the game’s fourth play (Achilles injury). The Bills won the overtime coin toss but went three-and-out.

What happened: A debacle. Punter Sam Martin’s kick had a low hang time (3.90 seconds), allowing Jets rookie Xavier Gipson to score on a 65-yard return. Final – Jets 22, Bills 16.

Impact on the season: It was the start of two disturbing trends – the Bills’ inability to win one-possession games (at one point, they would be 2-5 in that category) and their struggles on the road (at one point, they were 1-4 in true road games).

Quote: “I have confidence in those (coverage) guys and (special teams coordinator Matthew Smiley). I didn’t feel like we were populated enough down there (to tackle Gipson). There just wasn’t enough bodies down there.” – coach Sean McDermott on Gipson’s touchdown.

2. Diggs’ domination​

When: Week 4 vs. Miami (Oct. 1).

Situation: The Bills led the Dolphins, 21-14, late in the second quarter and faced a second-and-6 from their 45-yard line.

What happened: The beginning of a rout. Quarterback Josh Allen threw a 13-yard pass to receiver Stefon Diggs, who broke two tackles on his way to a 55-yard touchdown. The Bills won, 48-20.

Impact on the season: What tumultuous offseason? Diggs caught six passes for 120 yards and three touchdowns against Miami, part of a six-game start in which he eclipsed 100 yards five times and had five total touchdowns.

Quote: “Each week, as you see Josh Allen, he adapts and he grows.” – Diggs after Allen’s perfect 158.3 passer rating.

3. Allen injures shoulder​

When: Week 6 vs. the New York Giants (Oct. 15).

Situation: Trailing the Giants 6-0 late in the second quarter, the Bills started a drive at their 25.

What happened: Allen’s first injury of the season. Giants defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence won his pass-rush matchup against left guard Connor McGovern and chased down Allen out of the pocket. Lawrence landed on Allen, driving his right (throwing) shoulder into the turf. Thanks to the Giants’ end-of-each-half gaffes, the Bills escaped with a 14-9 victory.

Impact on the season: Allen would appear on the Bills’ injury report for the next nine weeks, but missed only one practice. Allen continued to rush for touchdowns, but the shoulder clearly hampered him for several weeks. The Bills would lose three of their next four and four of their next six games.

Quote: “We’ll be all right. Just had some pictures (X-rays).” – Allen after the game.

4. Comeback, then collapse​

When: Week 7 at New England (Oct. 22).

Situation: The Bills erased a 12-point deficit to take a 25-22 lead with 1:58 remaining on Allen’s 1-yard touchdown run.

What happened: A collapse. The key play was the first play. Patriots quarterback Mac Jones threw a pass behind the line of scrimmage to running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who gained 34 yards when defensive tackle Jordan Phillips and safety Taylor Rapp missed tackles. The Patriots would win, 29-25, on Jones’ 1-yard touchdown pass to tight end Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds remaining.

Impact on the season: A poor start (first-play turnover). Bad tackling (eight missed tackles). Inability to close out an inferior opponent (the Patriots would finish 4-13). The Bills dropped to 4-3 and finding a path to 10 wins seemed improbable.

Quote: “We have to continue to find answers for some of the reasons why we’re stubbing our toe.” – McDermott.

5. Broncos win on do-over​

When: Week 10 vs. Denver (Nov. 13).

Situation: The Bills took a 22-21 lead with 1:53 remaining, but then the Broncos ran six plays and got a 28-yard pass interference penalty on cornerback Taron Johnson to move into field goal range.

What happened: Wil Lutz’s 41-yard field goal was no good and the Bills had escaped … until they hadn’t. Confusion led to a 12-men-on-the-field penalty on the Bills and Lutz made the do-over (36 yards) for a 24-22 Broncos win, dropping the Bills to .500 (5-5) for the first time since Week 2.

Impact on the season: Had the Bills missed the postseason by one game, imagine not qualifying because of a careless 12-men penalty?
Quote: “Inexcusable.” – McDermott on the penalty.

6. Brady replaces Dorsey​

When: Nov. 14 at the Bills’ training facility.

Situation: The Bills ranked seventh in yards (370.1), sixth on third down (49.2%), third in the red zone (70.3% touchdowns) and fifth in scoring (26.2). But they were 5-5.

What happened: McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and promoted quarterbacks coach Joe Brady to interim play-caller.

Impact on the season: McDermott had no more cards to play and it worked out. The Bills went 6-1 with Brady as the play-caller, rushed for at least 108 yards in each game and opened the Allen floodgates (18 combined touchdowns).

Quote: “It’s a results-driven business and sometimes changes are made.” – McDermott.

7. Shakir’s breakout​

When: Week 11 vs. the Jets (Nov. 19).

Situation: Leading the woeful Jets, 22-6, midway through the third quarter, the Bills had a second-and-5 from their 19.
What happened: Second-year receiver Khalil Shakir caught Allen’s pass 25 yards downfield and turned it into an 81-yard touchdown, helping make Brady’s debut a success (32-6 win).

Impact on the season: Allen started to show trust in Shakir as an option and he delivered. In the first 10 games, he had 19 catches for 248 yards; in the last seven games, he had 20 catches for 363 yards.

Quote: “I just caught it and started running. And then I cut back and felt like I was moving in slow motion and then, shoot, I ended up in the end zone.” – Shakir.

8. Another come-from-ahead road loss​

When: Week 12 at Philadelphia (Nov. 26).

Situation: A 10-point lead had turned into a four-point deficit, which turned into a three-point lead with 1:52 remaining.

What happened: Here we go again. The Eagles started at their 25 and had gains of 9, 4, 11, 6 and 11 yards. Jake Elliott hit a 59-yard field goal with 20 seconds left in regulation. The Eagles would win in overtime, 36-34.

Impact on the season: Goodbye, margin for error. The Bills, who gave up 30 points in the second half/overtime, limped into the bye week with a 6-6 record and out of playoff position (10th in the AFC). They also fell to 2-6 in one-possession games. The season appeared kaput.

Quote: “You have opportunities across the board on offense, defense and special teams. But where I start is with myself and the defense.” – McDermott.

9. Cook’s emergence​

When: Week 14 at Kansas City (Dec. 10).

Situation: In a scoreless game, the Bills had a second-and-8 from the Chiefs’ 25.

What happened: The Chiefs rushed six against the Bills’ five-man pass protection and running back James Cook got open down the left seam, caught Allen’s pass at the 10 and cruised to the touchdown.

Impact on the season: Major on two fronts. First, the Bills saved their season with a 20-17 win. Second, Cook had 138 yards from scrimmage, further evidence he was going to be prioritized by Brady. Cook would end up being voted to the Pro Bowl.

Quote: “He’s growing and it’s a joy as a coach to watch a player continue to take steps in terms of his development.” – McDermott on Cook.

10. Escape from L.A.​

When: Week 16 at the Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 23).

Situation: The Bills trailed 10-0 before scoring the next 21 points to take control of the game. Or we thought. The Chargers, playing for interim coach Giff Smith and backup quarterback Easton Stick, scored the next 12 points. The Bills drove to the red zone in the final minute.

What happened: Kicker Tyler Bass’ 29-yard field goal was good with 28 seconds remaining and the Bills escaped with a 24-22 win.

Impact on the season: Remember the indignity of losing at New England or losing to Denver because of a penalty? Losing to an interim coach/backup quarterback to watch the playoffs from home would have been embarrassing.

Quote: “It’s doesn’t matter how we get them done, just get them done.” – Allen.

11. Douglas’ pick-six​

When: Week 17 vs. New England (Dec. 31).

Situation: The Bills led the Patriots 13-7 early in the second quarter. New England had a third-and-11 from its 34.

What happened: Under pressure by blitzing safety Micah Hyde, Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe threw to the left side. Receiver Jalen Reagor continued to run up the field and the football went right to cornerback Rasul Douglas, who intercepted it and scored on a 40-yard touchdown. The Bills won, 27-21.

Impact on the season: The Bills’ win over New England combined with Miami’s loss at Baltimore set up the Week 18 AFC East championship game. Douglas proved to be one of the best – if not the best – trade deadline pickups of the season.

Quote: “I (saw) the blitz and I was like, ‘He’s got to throw it hot or he’s going to be sacked.’ He threw it. … As soon as I got the ball, I had to try to score.” – Douglas.

12. Record-setting return​

When: Week 18 at Miami (Jan. 7).

Situation: The Bills trailed the Dolphins 14-7 early in the fourth quarter. Earlier in the day, Jacksonville’s loss at Tennessee clinched a playoff spot for the Bills. The No. 2 seed was on the line.

What happened: History. Deonte Harty caught the punt (4.57-second hang time) at his 4-yard line and scored on a 96-yard touchdown, the longest return in Bills history. Harty made Justin Bethel miss at the 10, broke Channing Tindall’s tackle at the 15 and received key blocks from Quintin Morris and Poona Ford. The Bills would win, 21-14.

Impact on the season: Two games in Buffalo instead of a return trip to Miami for the playoffs. That thunderbolt tied the game, the defense forced a three-and-out and the offense took the lead on their next drive.

Quote: “I kind of like took a peek and (there) wasn’t really (anybody) in front of me for 10 yards, 15 yards. Once I saw that, I knew it was go time.” – Harty.

 

[SpikedLemonade]

Holy Jose!!!

That is a lot to read.

Did StraightJ write it?

 

[HipKat]

Mark Gaughan: Taron Johnson, NFL's top tackling CB, braces for Steelers onslaught​

The Buffalo Bills had just tied the game with the Miami Dolphins on Deonte Harty’s 96-yard punt return.

On first down from its own 25, Miami ran a toss play wide to the left for world-class speedster De’Von Achane.

Two Dolphins receivers – River Cracraft and Braxton Berrios – were bunched together and tried to execute a double-team block on Bills cornerback Taron Johnson so Achane could turn the corner.

Nope. Johnson threw his right shoulder into the chest of Berrios, knocked him off stride then ducked under pulling tackle Terron Armstead and took down Achane for a 1-yard loss.

Miami went three plays and out.

It’s the kind of hard-nosed, punch-above-his-weight play that has become matter of fact from the Bills’ slot cornerback over the past six seasons.
Johnson has had another great year in coverage and against the run.

The 5-foot-11, 192-pounder led all NFL cornerbacks in tackles with 98. He had the most solo tackles among all cornerbacks with 72. He had more solo tackles than former Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (69), who had a good year for the Chicago Bears.

Johnson had the most tackles among CBs on run plays (28). And he had the second most “run stops” among CBs (17), which is tackles that constitute a failed play for the offense, according to Pro Football Focus.


So it goes. The 27-year-old has ranked among the top three CBs in run stops each of the past four years.

Was this his best season?

“Uh, yeah, one of ’em,” Johnson said.

Does he consider himself underrated?

“I don’t know, I think about it here and there,” Johnson said. “It’d be cool to have more recognition for slot corners in general. But it is what it is. It’s not too much on my mind. My main focus is winning.”

Johnson will be a key figure in Sunday’s wild-card playoff game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh has played 11 personnel – three wide receivers – on 75% of its snaps, among the league leaders. That means the Bills have to stay in their nickel defense.

But the Steelers have a punishing running game, which means Johnson is going to be in a meat grinder trying to fit gaps like a linebacker vs. the run and tackling Pittsburgh’s outstanding duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.

“It’s a challenge,” Johnson said. “Every week, especially in the playoffs, is going to be a challenge. Just making sure we’re doing everything we need to do to keep them from making explosive plays.”

Asked about the Steelers’ physical line play and running style, Johnson said:

“I just think we’re physical, too. So we’re just gonna see.”

The tackle for loss in Miami was one of many highlight moments for Johnson this season.

• He had tight man coverage in the end zone on New England’s Demario Douglas last week to help force a field goal.
• He timed a big hit from behind on Quentin Johnston to cause a third-down incompletion and force a field goal in the fourth quarter of the Chargers game.
• He had a near interception covering CeeDee Lamb in the second half of the Dallas game and helped close off the middle of the field, where the Cowboys’ receivers love to work.
• He had a team-high nine tackles and a fumble recovery in the win at Kansas City.
• He broke up the pass in the end zone on the final play to preserve the win over the Giants.

Bills players are reluctant to declare someone the toughest player pound for pound on the team because so many take pride in their toughness. But Johnson is in the conversation for the hypothetical title.

“Absolutely, he’s top five,” said cornerback Dane Jackson.

“Defending the run in nickel, it starts with him,” Jackson said. “I think part of it is his toughness, his willingness to go in there and tackle. He’s basically another linebacker. He does it very well so that’s why we don’t have to get out of it.

“What you see is what you get with him,” Jackson said. “His aggressive approach, his aggressive mentality, that’s kind of how he is. He’s a very chill guy off the field. But he has that switch on the field that just turns up like no other.”

Johnson’s big career moment was the 101-yard interception return against Baltimore in the 2020 divisional round. He’s renovating his basement, and the ball from that play will be featured prominently down there.

Maybe Johnson has another huge postseason highlight play in him this year.

Josh Allen on the Bills: 'This is a very inspired group right now'​

When Josh Allen walked around the Buffalo Bills facility this week, he felt just happy to be here – not in a complacent or surprised sense, but rather in a rejuvenated way.

“There’s a lot of teams that aren’t in the playoffs, a lot of guys that aren’t practicing today, so this is a very inspired group right now,” Allen said Wednesday. “We just love that we’re able to come in here and do what we love to do.”

The Bills are doing more than that, though. Allen said they’re spinning that inspired nature and that love of the game forward.

“You want to peak at the right time,” Allen said. “I think this football team, we still got our best ball to play, but we’re trending in the right direction. We’re very fortunate to be playing another game.”

The next game, of course, comes Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers during Super Wild Card Weekend at Highmark Stadium.

Last season, Allen set his career high in passing yards (424) against the Steelers in Week 5. He also threw the longest pass of his career, a 98-yard touchdown to Gabe Davis. While he found success in the 38-3 throttling of the Steelers, Allen doesn’t think there’s a ton he can pull from that contest 15 months later.

“I don’t think so,” he said. “I think scheme-wise, I wouldn’t say they’re totally different from that. Now personnel, they’re a little bit different, but they’re playing at a very high level right now. I know they ruled (edge rusher T.J.) Watt out, but that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear.

“They’ve got a very good defensive line. One of the better players interior that’s played this game in Cam Heyward. He’s an animal. (Alex) Highsmith on the left edge, he’s playing at as high a level as anybody in the league right now.”

But Allen’s playing at an extremely high level himself. After the win over Miami, in which he threw for 359 yards on 30 of 38 passing, Allen said he “felt like the ball was coming out of my hands the best all year.” He hopes to keep that going, and it comes in part from feeling healthier. Allen was listed as a full participant in Wednesday’s walkthrough, though still listed with a neck issue on the injury report. He’s no longer listed with his right shoulder or right finger. He also credited interim offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

“It’s something you can definitely try to replicate,” Allen said Wednesday. “Obviously, throughout the season bumps and bruises here and there and sometimes affecting mechanics, just trying to find what fits best, but felt like this last week just mechanically felt as sound as I’ve ever been really throwing the football.

“So, again, just making sure we’re practicing good practice habits and coach Brady did a good job last week … we started doing some individual drills again, fill in the base, get back to where it needs to be, just being as balanced as I can be in my throwing motion. It felt good coming out of the hands, so just got to continue practicing those habits.”

Brady echoed that.

“I think just in general, you go through a full season, and you’re taking certain hits or, you know, your body’s not feeling just as perfect as it was the beginning of the year or sometimes some of the mechanics or the fundamentals, you might start overcompensating for some of the things,” Brady said Monday.

“He has a great understanding of his mechanics and his form and what he needs to do, and kind of change when he needs to, based upon how he’s feeling or potentially some injuries or whatnot. But I thought he spun the ball great in practice this past week, so it was no surprise seeing him pregame and ... at the end of the game, how he was kind of dialed into throwing to it.”

Allen entered December with a completion percentage of 68.1% for the first three months of the season. In December, his completion percentage dropped to 55.6%.

He bounced back against Miami, completing 79%, his third-best figure for a game this season.

He threw two touchdowns, but also threw two interceptions against the Dolphins. The picks came on third-and-5 from the Miami 5, and fourth-and-2 from the Miami 35, with the latter caught in the end zone for a touchback. Even though the Dolphins didn’t get great field position from either interception, Allen felt the momentum shift with the turnovers. While he’s still trying to maintain his style of play, he’s looking to cut back on those moments.

“I’m trying to do whatever I can to help the team win,” Allen said. “Same time, I don’t want to throw them; it’s not fun looking at the stat sheet and seeing interceptions whether it’s before the half, on a Hail Mary attempt or long fourth down, it still doesn’t feel great. And interceptions, sometimes it’s just momentum.

“It’s something that you can’t see but something you can feel and sometimes it gives them momentum and again don’t want to limit our chances to score points and I’ve done that a couple of times throughout the season and that’s never any fun.”

 

[HipKat]

Bills Mailbag: Could Christian Wilkins be suspended for his 'run-in' with Josh Allen?​

Welcome to our first Bills Mailbag of the postseason. Let’s jump right into your questions …

Jim Maras asks: Christian Wilkins touched Josh Allen “inappropriately” (again) at the end of Allen’s quarterback sneak with 4:44 left in the game. Kudos to Josh for avoiding the retaliation penalty. My questions are: Does the league review plays like this to subsequently fine players like Wilkins? Could Wilkins perhaps be suspended for being a “serial offender”?

Jay: Yes, this can absolutely be reviewed by the league. Based on the replay of the incident you’re referring to, it would surprise me if the league determined it warranted a suspension. It is peculiar that Wilkins continues to find himself involved in a controversy like this, and only adds to the rivalry between the two teams. Allen does deserve credit for not losing his cool and taking a penalty.

Al Runkel asks: At the end of the Bills’ Super Bowl run, if they decide to stay with Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator, what are your thoughts on bringing in someone like Tony Romo during the offseason? Romo would help Brady to clean plays, inject an outside view of what the Bills need to do better or how to be more unpredictable. He may also be able to help Allen when he has frozen eyes on a player, while another is doing jumping jacks in the end zone.

Jay: If I’m following the question correctly, this means as a consultant. I’m sure things like that happen every offseason with coaches seeking outside opinions on what they can do to improve their scheme. If the question means hiring Romo for a role with the team, I’d consider that very unlikely. He’s got a great gig as the analyst on CBS’ top broadcast pairing. The job leaves him plenty of time to pursue outside interests, without the grind of the coaching profession. The larger point, that Brady would benefit from an outside perspective on some things, is a fair one, so whether it be by Romo or someone else, I’m sure there will be some consultations that are similar to what you’re suggesting, Al.

Ken R. asks: Please rate from 1 to 10, Joe Brady’s play design of Josh Allen’s throw off a Dolphins’ helmet into the waiting arms and toe drag of Trent Sherfield.

Jay: I’ll give the play design a solid 2. I didn’t like the call, and if the ball isn’t deflected off Andrew Van Ginkel’s helmet, the likelihood of Sherfield making the catch as originally intended is low. As for the toe drag, that was easily a 10. Sherfield showed amazing concentration to wait for the ball to come to him while managing to keep his toes on the ground before falling out of bounds. It was one of the best individual efforts of the season.

Senagel asks: What do you think of a team that wins the coin toss and then defers? It gives me chills when that happens. My coach from high school, (Greater Buffalo Sports Hall of Famer) Charlie Dingboom, would have never done that.

Jay: It’s the right move to defer. Back in 2019, Warren Sharp of Sharp Football Analysis did a study on whether to receive or defer the opening kickoff. He found, that in a study of nearly 800 games, deferring and receiving the ball to start the second half resulted, on average, in one extra point on the scoreboard and a 12% chance of “stealing” a possession by “double dipping,” which means to score at the end of the first half and then again in the third quarter before the other team possesses the ball. That’s admittedly not a huge advantage, but when you think about how close NFL games generally are, even the smallest statistical advantages should be taken advantage of whenever possible.

Dave Szprygada asks: The one thing this season that drove me crazy was hearing how the Bills’ Super Bowl window was closed. Maybe I have little brother syndrome, but I never heard anyone once say that about the Chiefs. My question to you is when Patrick Mahomes got drafted, he went to a team that already was dominating its division with numerous Pro Bowlers and All-Pros, while Josh Allen was throwing to Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Roberts. If the Bills drafted Mahomes with that pick and Kansas City got Allen the following year, what do you think their respective accomplishments look like?

Jay: They’d still both be great. The best thing the Bills did for Allen was upgrade the talent around him with the acquisitions of Cole Beasley and John Brown, then later the trade for Stefon Diggs and drafting of Gabe Davis. It also was a huge benefit that Allen had stability at offensive coordinator at the beginning of his career with Brian Daboll. He was able to get better in the same system in his formative years. If Allen went to Kansas City and got to be coached by Andy Reid while throwing to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, there is no reason to think he would not be as successful as he has been, or maybe even more so, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league. Similarly, if the Bills upgraded around Mahomes and gave him consistent coaching like they did with Allen, he’d be darn good, too.

Ed Helinski asks: With injuries to Gabe Davis, Tyrel Dodson and Rasul Douglas and the uncertainty of their availability against Pittsburgh, which players could be activated to the playoff game roster to take those spots?

Jay: Don’t forget Ty Johnson, Ed. He left the game against Miami with a concussion. The Bills can call up two players from the practice squad for the active roster in the postseason. Given that Leonard Fournette was called up last week to face Miami and the team currently only has two healthy running backs, James Cook and Latavius Murray, another elevation of Fournette seems likely. Beyond that, the team has made cornerback Kaiir Elam a healthy inactive recently. They could easily make him active over Douglas, so they wouldn’t need a call-up there. They also have Baylon Spector and Dorian Williams at linebacker behind Dodson, so the call-up of a wide receiver would be most likely. If that’s the case, Andy Isabella has come up to the active roster before for a game, so he’d be my bet.

Thank you for the questions. As a reminder, they can be submitted for Sunday’s mailbag by sending them via email to jskurski@buffnews.com or via X to @JaySkurski.

Ryan O'Halloran: Numbers alone don't tell the story of this Bills team​

Just before midnight Monday, anybody employed by the Buffalo Bills was issued an AFC East championship T-shirt and baseball cap upon entering the jubilation-filled visitor’s locker room in the bowels of Hard Rock Stadium.

And we mean everybody. Coaches, players, athletic trainers, equipment staff, communications and other support staff. They all reveled in the Bills’ semi-improbable march from 6-6 three days after Thanksgiving to 11-6 and division champions seven days after New Year’s.
Everybody included owner Terry Pegula.

Standing against a hallway wall, Pegula – suitcoat off, title-winning T-shirt and hat on – reviewed the statistics from his team’s 21-14 win over the Miami Dolphins that clinched a fourth consecutive division title and the second seed in the AFC playoffs.
And, man oh man, what a story those numbers told. A story of mistakes and magic, redemption and resolve, depth and determination.
All … in … the … same … game!

Translation: It was your typical Bills game.

Forehead-slamming and fist-pumping moments, oftentimes during the same possession, you know you’re used to it by now, Bills fans. That’s the way of the NFL, where anybody-can-beat-or-lose-to-anybody reigns. This year, five of the Bills’ six losses were to teams that did not qualify for the postseason, but they were 5-1 against playoff teams. When their best was mandated, they played their best.

“We’ve been in ‘Playoff Mode,’ for the last five weeks and this group has come together and here we are,” safety Micah Hyde said.

For five consecutive weeks, the Bills’ best was required because their margin for error was gone. It’s fine to talk about being resilient and overcoming things, but this was a mess of their doing. A 12-men-on-the-field penalty against Denver on Nov. 13 led to a do-over field goal and a crushing loss. A blown double-digit lead at Philadelphia followed two weeks later. At that point, the Bills were 6-6, and not the good kind of 6-6.
They weren’t playing well. They were 10th in the AFC (seven teams make the playoffs). They were spinning their wheels, seeing a Super Bowl-or-bust season extinguished before crunch time of December.

“Let’s see: I’m pretty sure we got written out of the playoffs and written out of the AFC East (contention),” right tackle Spencer Brown told me with his customary good nature. “After the Denver game, it was, ‘You guys might as well pack it in.’ It’s your job to write about it and it’s our job to play.”
The Bills kept playing and started winning. They won at Kansas City. They routed Dallas. They grinded out wins against two inferior teams (the Los Angeles Chargers and New England). And they overcame three turnovers to beat the Dolphins.

“That’s what the playoffs are, too,” Brown said. “It’s not going to be pretty or perfect. You just need to make one more play than they do.”
Or in the case of Sunday night’s second half, a bunch more plays.

Which takes us back to the story of those statistics.

Mistakes and magic: Josh Allen did Josh Allen-type stuff. He threw two interceptions, threw short of the goal line as the first half expired and fumbled while being sacked … but he threw for 359 yards and two touchdowns and ran for a team-high 67 yards. And Deonte Harty’s 96-yard punt return touchdown – the longest in team history – tied the game at 14 early in the fourth quarter.

Redemption: Tight end Dawson Knox had two penalties, but scored the go-ahead touchdown with 7:16 remaining (5-yard catch), his first score in 16 weeks.

Resolve and depth: The Bills finished the game without starting receiver Gabe Davis, outside linebacker Tyrel Dodson and top cornerback Rasul Douglas, all of whom were injured in the first half. But receiver Khalil Shakir (105 yards), Baylon Spector (four tackles in 19 snaps) and Dane Jackson (one pass break-up in 27 snaps) filled the void.

Determination: The Bills’ five-game winning streak is the longest entering the postseason.

Now comes the fun stuff – the playoffs. Everything the Bills have worked toward since reporting to St. John Fisher University in Pittsford for training camp July 25 is within reach. Three wins from their first Super Bowl appearance since the 1993 season. Four wins from their first-ever Super Bowl title.

Are the Bills the favorite? No, the NFC goes through San Francisco and the AFC goes through Baltimore until further notice. But the playoffs is about which team gets hot at the right time and maybe the Bills are that team. They host Pittsburgh in a wild-card game at 1 p.m. Sunday. Beat the Steelers and they will play another home game.

The hats and T-shirts were cool, but they guarantee nothing.

“I’ll never say ‘No,’ to winning a division,” Allen said. “But the only thing it solidifies is a home game and one more game. It doesn’t mean anything if we go out there (Sunday) and don’t do our job.”

 

[HipKat]

Bills' Rasul Douglas on injury: 'I'm going to get through it'​

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. – The Buffalo Bills lost cornerback Rasul Douglas to a knee injury in the first half Sunday night against the Miami Dolphins, but Douglas expressed confidence that he would be ready for the playoff opener against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

“I’m going to get through it,” he said in the postgame locker room. “We’ll see what’s going on (Monday), and we’ll go from there.”

When head coach Sean McDermott met with reporters over Zoom on Monday, he said he was still waiting on updates from head athletic trainer Nate Breske on all players.

“I don’t have much because we got back too late,” McDermott said on injuries. “But I’ll have more for you guys on Wednesday.”

Douglas injured his left knee in the second quarter and went into the sideline medical tent. He emerged and tried to test the knee before heading back into the tent. He would then go to the locker room for further evaluation and was deemed questionable to return.

Douglas said he was going to try to come back into the game, but fellow cornerback Dane Jackson was confident that if Douglas wasn’t 100% good, Jackson could handle the job.

“I was just like, ‘Go ahead bro,’” Douglas said. “And I’d rather him be 100 (percent) out there, than me not being 100.”

Douglas said Jackson and Christian Benford played great games. Still, it was tough to stay on the sideline.

“That was my first time, cause I don’t really get injured like that,” Douglas said. “I don’t wanna be on the sideline during plays. I’d rather be in the game.”

Douglas played 25 snaps, 48% of defensive snaps, prior to the injury.

Douglas has provided the Bills with consistent play on defense after being acquired in a trade deadline deal from the Green Bay Packers. He has four interceptions, a sack and two fumble recoveries in nine games since the trade.

General manager Brandon Beane has heralded both Douglas’ instincts and his preparation.

“He’s just got an innate feel of how the game is played, what they’re trying to do,” Beane told The Buffalo News. “And then a lot of people have that, but they don’t also have the ball skills with it. He’s got really good ball skills with it. And I think we’ve seen it, that he’s had some some big games as far as turnovers for us, to either put our offense in good scoring position, or even (against the Patriots), he scored himself.”

Davis report​

McDermott didn’t have updates on any player injuries, but wide receiver Gabe Davis may have avoided a major injury.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Davis “suffered a PCL sprain that is not considered major. His status is TBD, but he has not been ruled out of anything just yet.” Davis was ruled questionable to return with a knee injury during the first half of Sunday’s game.

 

[HipKat]

Holy Jose!!!

That is a lot to read.

Did StraightJ write it?

The hard part is taking out all the embedded links, repeated stories, pictures and correcting the formatting errors like double spacing between paragraphs, etc